Scape Goat I've lost my faith in Ken Hinkley Part 3

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The best season we've had since 2007 was 2014.

Carlile (27), Hombsch (21), Jonas (23) and Trengove (24) were the main defenders then. These were their averages per game (Carlile, Hombsch, Jonas and Trengove):

Kicks - 6.6, 8.5, 8.6, 5.9
Handballs - 5.6, 5.1, 6.5, 7.7
Marks - 3.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.5
Tackles - 2.0, 2.4, 2.2, 2.2
Inside 50s - 0.8, 1.1, 1.6, 1.4
Goal Assists - 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0
Contested Possessions - 4.3, 4.1, 4.8, 6.7
Uncontested Possessions - 7.7, 9.4, 10.2, 6.5
Effective Disposals - 9.1, 10.8, 12.1, 10.1
Contested Marks - 0.9, 0.4, 0.6, 0.9
Rebound 50s - 1.9, 1.8, 1.9, 1.1

Compare that to Jonas (28), Clurey (25), Howard (23) and Lienert (24) this year:

Kicks - 11.0, 9.4, 9.0, 16.2
Handballs - 5.1, 3.2, 4.7, 5.5
Marks - 6.0, 4.8, 5.3, 6.7
Tackles - 2.0, 1.8, 1.8, 1.5
Inside 50s - 1.0, 0.9, 1.4, 2.2
Goal Assists - 0, 0.1, 0, 0.2
Contested Possessions - 5.0, 4.3, 5.3, 4.7
Uncontested Possessions - 10.6, 7.2, 8.3, 15.0
Effective Disposals - 13.1, 10.4, 10.9, 17.3
Contested Marks - 0.6, 1.1, 1.4, 0
Rebound 50s - 3.3, 3.3, 2.9, 6.5

In pretty much every single statistical category, the 2019 players are better, even though the game style has changed from a back half team (slingshot) to a forward half team (press). This is the difference between a preliminary finalist calibre team and a premiership calibre team.

That's why I say wait for some continuity in the back line and get Dixon back in the side before you start judging whether this season is a write off or not.

The slingshot was about winning the ball and then getting it out of defence as quickly as possible. We weren't chipping it around trying to find a way through a set defence.

We've definitely got a more mobile, better ball handling defence than we did in 2014, but so does every other club as well. The game has changed, nobody has purely negating defenders in 2019.
 
I’m ******* baffled anyone can not only try to defend Hinkleys record on developing talls in this team but praise it. We have neither team success nor am I inclined to attribute any of the talls we do have burgeoning promise to him either.

They’re succeeding in spite of him not because of him.

That block of numbers you posted means **** all.
*reacts to the scent of misused and baldfacedly selective stats.*

FEE FI FO FANUS
 
The slingshot was about winning the ball and then getting it out of defence as quickly as possible. We weren't chipping it around trying to find a way through a set defence.

We've definitely got a more mobile, better ball handling defence than we did in 2014, but so does every other club as well. The game has changed, nobody has purely negating defenders in 2019.

Hence why the forwards we play need to do more than be static. If the defenders are mobile and pushing up the ground, the forwards have to go with them - which is why I didn’t understand why Frampton was remaining stagnant against Hawthorn.

I personally think Howard will stay in the forward line all year and we’ll eventually play a back six of Jonas, Clurey, Lienert, Burton, Bonner and Hartlett. I’m hoping the penny has dropped for Riley now and he commits to the contest like he did against the Saints. That sort of game is all I ask from him.

Depending on the size of the ground, it’ll be either Byrne-Jones or Broadbent on the bench.

I reckon Houston has been shifted into the defensive midfield role at stoppages, so I’ve taken him out of there and put him into midfield. Put him in the mix with Powell-Pepper, Wines, Boak, Amon and Duursma. Lycett rucking and Rockliff coming off the bench.

Then up forward, you’ve got Dixon, Howard and Ryder as your main targets, with Robbie, Rozee and Motlop as your crumbers/high forwards, with Westhoff coming off the bench. Motlop I think is starting to get back into form.

The good thing about this setup is that with Howard and Houston you’ve got players who actually know how to defend in each line, so when they find themselves pushing back into defence they are moving back to where they’ve played the majority of their AFL career.

You can also deploy Westhoff into any position and actually create a mismatch straight away.

Ebert I can’t find a place for with Dixon in the side and Howard up forward. Probably replace Duursma in the team when/if he tires, and Motlop will shift into that position and give Ebert a high forward spot. But I’m getting as many games into Duursma as I can. Unfortunately the same goes for Butters, Farrell and Sam Gray - as Dixon, Wines, Rockliff and Hartlett return to the side, someone in has to make way.

The last change would be Watts for Lienert if he makes it back.

That team is good enough to win the flag, and it hasn’t been seen once this year.
 

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That team absolutely has the talent to beat anyone anywhere if it fires.

As I said at the start of the year, the rest is a bit of luck with injury and Hinkley staying out of his own way.
Also not losing games while players regain touch at AFL level.

It’s gonna be tricky to bring so many players back without dropping games. We’ve seen how it can backfire already this year.

I’m very concerned about how we bring Dixon, Wines, Rockliff and Hartlett in while playing some very important games against Fremantle and Geelong.
 
Hence why the forwards we play need to do more than be static. If the defenders are mobile and pushing up the ground, the forwards have to go with them - which is why I didn’t understand why Frampton was remaining stagnant against Hawthorn.

I personally think Howard will stay in the forward line all year and we’ll eventually play a back six of Jonas, Clurey, Lienert, Burton, Bonner and Hartlett. I’m hoping the penny has dropped for Riley now and he commits to the contest like he did against the Saints. That sort of game is all I ask from him.

Depending on the size of the ground, it’ll be either Byrne-Jones or Broadbent on the bench.

I reckon Houston has been shifted into the defensive midfield role at stoppages, so I’ve taken him out of there and put him into midfield. Put him in the mix with Powell-Pepper, Wines, Boak, Amon and Duursma. Lycett rucking and Rockliff coming off the bench.

Then up forward, you’ve got Dixon, Howard and Ryder as your main targets, with Robbie, Rozee and Motlop as your crumbers/high forwards, with Westhoff coming off the bench. Motlop I think is starting to get back into form.

The good thing about this setup is that with Howard and Houston you’ve got players who actually know how to defend in each line, so when they find themselves pushing back into defence they are moving back to where they’ve played the majority of their AFL career.

You can also deploy Westhoff into any position and actually create a mismatch straight away.

Ebert I can’t find a place for with Dixon in the side and Howard up forward. Probably replace Duursma in the team when/if he tires, and Motlop will shift into that position and give Ebert a high forward spot. But I’m getting as many games into Duursma as I can. Unfortunately the same goes for Butters, Farrell and Sam Gray - as Dixon, Wines, Rockliff and Hartlett return to the side, someone in has to make way.

The last change would be Watts for Lienert if he makes it back.

That team is good enough to win the flag, and it hasn’t been seen once this year.

I don't really disagree with any of this, but you missed my point.

I refute the assertion that we played a game that generated higher possession for key defenders in 2014 than we do now. That's partly because our style has changed but mainly because the entire league expects everyone to be able to take part in a score launch in 2019.

To say we were a back half team in 2014 but we're a forward half team in 2019 is correct, but it's silly to say that because of that, the defenders get less of the ball. They get more of the ball, because they're the only players on the ground given the scope to share it around under minimal pressure and usually need to do so to try to generate holes in the press to move through.

Frampton wasn't stagnant against Hawthorn. He was being double teamed because he was the only marking target and Hawthorn were reliably able to get us to slam the ball onto the boot at half forward and hospital ball it in instead of using the double team to our advantage and trying to pick out players on the lead.

Part of the reason Howard, Clurey and the rest of the young defence are so good now are that they have been allowed to play terrible games and have kept their place and been allowed to continue to develop. That hasn't happened up forward where 1 bad performance has seen them dropped.
 
I don't really disagree with any of this, but you missed my point.

I refute the assertion that we played a game that generated higher possession for key defenders in 2014 than we do now. That's partly because our style has changed but mainly because the entire league expects everyone to be able to take part in a score launch in 2019.

To say we were a back half team in 2014 but we're a forward half team in 2019 is correct, but it's silly to say that because of that, the defenders get less of the ball. They get more of the ball, because they're the only players on the ground given the scope to share it around under minimal pressure and usually need to do so to try to generate holes in the press to move through.

Frampton wasn't stagnant against Hawthorn. He was being double teamed because he was the only marking target and Hawthorn were reliably able to get us to slam the ball onto the boot at half forward and hospital ball it in instead of using the double team to our advantage and trying to pick out players on the lead.

Part of the reason Howard, Clurey and the rest of the young defence are so good now are that they have been allowed to play terrible games and have kept their place and been allowed to continue to develop. That hasn't happened up forward where 1 bad performance has seen them dropped.

So what you’re saying is key defenders are meant to do more than just defend, but actually push up the ground and help with the attack to?

Great - so aren’t key forwards meant to do more in the modern game? What makes them special? They should get up the ground too. If key defenders have to launch scoring chains, key forwards need to be able to be part of scoring chains instead of always being the primary target.

No amount of experience is going to help if a forward isn’t going to play in a way where he contributes towards team, rather than personal, success. I don’t give a * if a player has ten possessions if he’s blocking for his teammates and making it easier for them to get the ball.

Compare Marshall’s game against West Coast to Frampton’s game against Hawthorn for an example of what I mean by sacrificing your game for the team.

No one expects a forward to dodge bullets while they are gaining experience. They are expected to duck when the gun is pointed at them though. Jonas, Clurey, Howard and Lienert have all had stinkers in their career, but they were stinkers as they tried to play the right way.

The reason why most key forwards are a bust in the AFL is because the combination of height, athleticism, endurance and power (either strength or contested marking capability) required to play the role is rare. That’s why Lukosius and the King twins got drafted in the top 6 last year, and why guys like Boyd and Shache have been busts as talls even though they were taken high.

A key forward that can’t get to the fall of the ball is beyond useless. Most of the balls they are going to see are hospital balls because the mids are kicking under either direct or referred pressure - their job is to contest them and bring the crumbing forwards into the game. Failure to do that is like failure to breathe for a key forward.
 
Let's see:

Tom Jonas - best 22 from 2013.

Alipate Carlile - best 22 in 2013-2014, got injured in 2015 and retired.

Jackson Trengove - best 22 in 2013, moved to forward line in 2017.

Jack Hombsch - 6 games in 2013, best 22 from 2014 to 2015, injured in 2016.

Tom Clurey - 1 game in 2014, 8 games in 2015, 9 games in 2016, best 22 from 2017.

Dougal Howard - 6 games in 2016, did ACL, 4 games in 2017, best 22 in 2018, learned different way to defend, best 22 in 2019.

Todd Marshall - 3 games in 2017, 7 games in 2018, started in best 22 in 2019 but faded and has played 6 out of 11 games.

Billy Frampton - 1 game in 2018, 2 games in 2019.

Peter Ladhams - 1 game in 2019.

So Clurey and Howard have developed into best 22 players. There's no bias...it's just how Hinkley operates. He rewards players for reaching a milestone by giving them a game when they are ready after a spot becomes available, and then sets the milestone to being better than the incumbent in the position so the team actually improves in performance.

When Hombsch replaced Carlile in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Clurey replaced Hombsch in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Howard replaced Trengove in the back line in the best 22, it was a good call.

When Marshall replaced Trengove in the forward line in the best 22, it was a good call.

We are just going through the same stage with the forward line and the rucks now. People are just impatient because they think that development is some linear progression. It's not like the backline is going anywhere.
I think the problem is more - as stated - that he is much slower to reward talls than smalls. We've had patches of talls having good, consistent runs of form in the SANFL but they haven't been selected because they're not a like-for-like of Jake Neade getting 8 touches and a tackle, or SGray getting double-teamed deep inside 50.

If players are demanding selection in the SANFL Hinkley and co. should have the flexibility built in to be able to drop underperforming smalls to accomodate.
 
I think the problem is more - as stated - that he is much slower to reward talls than smalls. We've had patches of talls having good, consistent runs of form in the SANFL but they haven't been selected because they're not a like-for-like of Jake Neade getting 8 touches and a tackle, or SGray getting double-teamed deep inside 50.

If players are demanding selection in the SANFL Hinkley and co. should have the flexibility built in to be able to drop underperforming smalls to accomodate.

The only tall forwards that have had a consistent run of form in the SANFL have been Jack Watts last year (18 disposals, 7 marks, 3 tackles, 2.5 goals a game) and Billy Frampton this year (15.8 disposals, 6.3 marks, 3.3 tackles, 2.5 goals a game).

It’s because I see Frampton as a more aggressive, contested version of Watts that I believe he’s going to make it. He just needs to put in a bit more work.
 
Hence why the forwards we play need to do more than be static. If the defenders are mobile and pushing up the ground, the forwards have to go with them - which is why I didn’t understand why Frampton was remaining stagnant against Hawthorn.

I personally think Howard will stay in the forward line all year and we’ll eventually play a back six of Jonas, Clurey, Lienert, Burton, Bonner and Hartlett. I’m hoping the penny has dropped for Riley now and he commits to the contest like he did against the Saints. That sort of game is all I ask from him.

Depending on the size of the ground, it’ll be either Byrne-Jones or Broadbent on the bench.

I reckon Houston has been shifted into the defensive midfield role at stoppages, so I’ve taken him out of there and put him into midfield. Put him in the mix with Powell-Pepper, Wines, Boak, Amon and Duursma. Lycett rucking and Rockliff coming off the bench.

Then up forward, you’ve got Dixon, Howard and Ryder as your main targets, with Robbie, Rozee and Motlop as your crumbers/high forwards, with Westhoff coming off the bench. Motlop I think is starting to get back into form.

The good thing about this setup is that with Howard and Houston you’ve got players who actually know how to defend in each line, so when they find themselves pushing back into defence they are moving back to where they’ve played the majority of their AFL career.

You can also deploy Westhoff into any position and actually create a mismatch straight away.

Ebert I can’t find a place for with Dixon in the side and Howard up forward. Probably replace Duursma in the team when/if he tires, and Motlop will shift into that position and give Ebert a high forward spot. But I’m getting as many games into Duursma as I can. Unfortunately the same goes for Butters, Farrell and Sam Gray - as Dixon, Wines, Rockliff and Hartlett return to the side, someone in has to make way.

The last change would be Watts for Lienert if he makes it back.

That team is good enough to win the flag, and it hasn’t been seen once this year.
No way Duursma goes out for anyone let alone Ebert! Perplexing call.
 

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Reached the halfway point at a completely mediocre 6-5. How Hinkley is this? Doing just enough not to be sacked.
Hinkley was asked the question directly on SEN, about being 6-5. Was happy with it, admitted they'd let 1 or 2 slip and could be better positioned. Happy considering injuries.

Mr Mediocre. No coach should be "happy" with 6-5.
 
Hinkley was asked the question directly on SEN, about being 6-5. Was happy with it, admitted they'd let 1 or 2 slip and could be better positioned. Happy considering injuries.

Mr Mediocre. No coach should be "happy" with 6-5.
I imagine he’s happy that we are in the top 8.

Things could easily be a lot worse, particularly for him.
 
So what you’re saying is key defenders are meant to do more than just defend, but actually push up the ground and help with the attack to?

Great - so aren’t key forwards meant to do more in the modern game? What makes them special? They should get up the ground too. If key defenders have to launch scoring chains, key forwards need to be able to be part of scoring chains instead of always being the primary target.

No amount of experience is going to help if a forward isn’t going to play in a way where he contributes towards team, rather than personal, success. I don’t give a **** if a player has ten possessions if he’s blocking for his teammates and making it easier for them to get the ball.

Compare Marshall’s game against West Coast to Frampton’s game against Hawthorn for an example of what I mean by sacrificing your game for the team.

No one expects a forward to dodge bullets while they are gaining experience. They are expected to duck when the gun is pointed at them though. Jonas, Clurey, Howard and Lienert have all had stinkers in their career, but they were stinkers as they tried to play the right way.

The reason why most key forwards are a bust in the AFL is because the combination of height, athleticism, endurance and power (either strength or contested marking capability) required to play the role is rare. That’s why Lukosius and the King twins got drafted in the top 6 last year, and why guys like Boyd and Shache have been busts as talls even though they were taken high.

A key forward that can’t get to the fall of the ball is beyond useless. Most of the balls they are going to see are hospital balls because the mids are kicking under either direct or referred pressure - their job is to contest them and bring the crumbing forwards into the game. Failure to do that is like failure to breathe for a key forward.

A 3 game key forward can't get to the fall of the ball while being double teamed. It's a learning experience, Frampton has spent very little time as the primary marking target at AFL level and even less being double teamed. Players need time to adjust and learn.

You're arguing that forwards who can't get up the ground and get involved in the play are droppable first time, and that it's reasonable that a forward doesn't get a few bites at the cherry to find his feet, learn how to deal with experienced AFL level defenders and get up to speed. That's absolutely ridiculous and that sort of attitude is why the closest we've come to developing a key forward under Hinkley is turning a promising KPF into a KPD, developing him there and then swinging him forward to great effect against a horrible opposition.

You're also asserting that the defenders have been willing to do their job so that's why they kept their spot, but that's total bullshit as well. Leinert had a game a few short weeks ago where he was hesitating every single time he got the ball and it was killing our ball movement. He kept his spot. Jonas spent the first couple of dozen games of his career as a pure negating defender with no real ability to get involved in the rebound play. He kept his spot and developed into a very good rebounding defender. Hartlett has spent most of his career as a flaky, inconsistent but wildly talented player but he's been backed in over long periods and injury to become the player he is now. Howard had a game earlier in the season where he was absolutely horrendous, easily as bad as Frampton was despite 10 times the experience at AFL level. He kept his spot and was backed in.

Why do key forwards get dropped after 1 down game under this coaching regime? Why is every non-KPF given plenty of time and backing to learn the ropes and become effective at AFL level? Frampton can't learn how to deal with an AFL double team at SANFL level. He can't. There is no value in sending him back to the SANFL to learn how to deal with AFL defenders. He had one down game after being a very good marking target in the previous two.
 
A 3 game key forward can't get to the fall of the ball while being double teamed. It's a learning experience, Frampton has spent very little time as the primary marking target at AFL level and even less being double teamed. Players need time to adjust and learn.

You're arguing that forwards who can't get up the ground and get involved in the play are droppable first time, and that it's reasonable that a forward doesn't get a few bites at the cherry to find his feet, learn how to deal with experienced AFL level defenders and get up to speed. That's absolutely ridiculous and that sort of attitude is why the closest we've come to developing a key forward under Hinkley is turning a promising KPF into a KPD, developing him there and then swinging him forward to great effect against a horrible opposition.

You're also asserting that the defenders have been willing to do their job so that's why they kept their spot, but that's total ******** as well. Leinert had a game a few short weeks ago where he was hesitating every single time he got the ball and it was killing our ball movement. He kept his spot. Jonas spent the first couple of dozen games of his career as a pure negating defender with no real ability to get involved in the rebound play. He kept his spot and developed into a very good rebounding defender. Hartlett has spent most of his career as a flaky, inconsistent but wildly talented player but he's been backed in over long periods and injury to become the player he is now. Howard had a game earlier in the season where he was absolutely horrendous, easily as bad as Frampton was despite 10 times the experience at AFL level. He kept his spot and was backed in.

Why do key forwards get dropped after 1 down game under this coaching regime? Why is every non-KPF given plenty of time and backing to learn the ropes and become effective at AFL level? Frampton can't learn how to deal with an AFL double team at SANFL level. He can't. There is no value in sending him back to the SANFL to learn how to deal with AFL defenders. He had one down game after being a very good marking target in the previous two.

Lienert's hesitation was a symptom that would be fixed with experience and other experienced players offering him options.

Jonas' first 13 games were in 2011/2012 when we weren't really rebounding anything, and even then, he posted 18 rebound 50s and 5 inside 50s. So it wasn't like he wasn't trying to rebound, he just didn't do it often enough. In 2013, he had 39 rebound 50s and 15 inside 50s, which is pretty good all things considered.

Both of these players' issues are fixed with exposure to the speed of the game and the ability to gain confidence through experience.

Frampton's issue isn't about him learning what to do with a double team. I'm sick and tired of people talking about it, so I'm going to show you exactly what he did wrong in the first quarter:

Example 1:

1559879444582.png

Broadbent kicks to Frampton who is one on one with Frawley. What does Frampton do in this situation? Instead of leading to the ball like any key forward would, he instead tries to engage with Frawley in a wresting contest, holds his arm and allows Frawley to gain separation and take an easy intercept mark. This is not fixed with AFL experience. Get to the fall of the ball.

Example 2:

1559879964612.png

Here we have Sam Gray kicking towards the hot spot where Frampton is again in a one on one contest. Frampton has nice separation here - but instead of making it hard for his opponent to get a feel for where he is, he moves towards him and allows the defender to engage and get an easy spoil on the ball. Stationary and stagnant. Should have waited and come in from the side to take the easy mark in front.

Example 3:

1559880401049.png

Everyone's favourite half-back, Matthew Broadbent, delivers a nice pass to Frampton on the lead. If a key forward gets two hands to the ball in this situation, it should be a mark. But Billy spills it. AFL experience isn't going to help with this.

Example 4:

1559880724526.png

Because Frampton is more worried about wrestling with his opponent instead of actually making it difficult for him to engage by moving around to generate separation, he's not on the move when Gray delivers a ball into the forward 50, the ball hits the ground around 2 feet in front of him and Frampton ends up getting done holding the ball. Jonathon Brown blames the kick, but the reality is that if Frampton wasn't busy trying to outmuscle his opponent he would have got to that kick no problem.

Example 5:

1559881299470.png

Once again, Frampton is caught wrestling with his opponent, because his stagnant approach to the ball means it makes him very easy to engage by a defender. If he had been on the move, Rozee would have hit him with a lace out pass, but that would be all too hard, so Connor is forced to kick it long and deep and Billy gives away a dumb free kick. Again. Could have used the miles of free space in front of goal on the lead.

Example 6:

1559882435187.png

Frampton leads to the ball, but has zero separation on his opponent who is right on his hammer, hence why he spills the mark. Generating separation is about making dummy leads and being constantly moving in the forward line to catch your opponent flatfooted. That's why key forward is the hardest position on the ground.

Example 7:

1559883359144.png

Here we see that the defender has over committed and all Frampton has to do is set himself with an arm bar to protect the space and he'll take an easy mark. Did he do so? Nope. No amount of AFL experience is going to help with this.

Here's a great example of what I'm talking about. Example 8:

1559883764357.png

See Butters with his hand up in the air? See Frampton running a good 20 meters ahead of Butters? If Frampton had been closer, he could have brought the ball to ground for Butters. Instead, it's Butters who brings the ball to ground for Frampton...who ends up getting done holding the ball. Absolutely ridiculous.

That's 3 frees against in one quarter of football. And in none of these examples was Frampton double teamed.

There was only one time when Frampton was double teamed in the first quarter:

1559883055474.png

This is an example of Hawthorn's zone, and why switching the play quickly in defence is so vitally important. Notice that Ryder also has two players in his vicinity. Amon has two as well. A zone is indiscriminate, and the further ahead a team gets, the more players the coach can commit to the zone because they already have the lead and can just pick off attacks with intercepts.

Ask yourself: if Dougal Howard or Charlie Dixon were in the positions that Frampton found himself in the first quarter, would we have gone scoreless? The answer is * no.
 

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