Player Watch Jaeger O'Meara 2021 (Rolling into year 5)

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tommyk72

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Maybe we have Matt Rowell or Noah Anderson running around for us who knows.

The Mitchell trade was a masterstroke but we knew what we were getting can't say the same about O'Meara.
Disagree with this. We didn't know that we were getting a future Brownlow medal winner who collects 30+ touches a game without batting an eyelid and who would miss an entire season with a broken leg. All of this - drafting, trading, etc. - is a risk. I really think you need to look at the total portfolio in the same way you look at an investment portfolio - you diversify, accept that some things will do better than expected, some worse, and hope that you come out ahead in the time horizon you're investing for.
 

SA HAWK

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Disagree with this. We didn't know that we were getting a future Brownlow medal winner who collects 30+ touches a game without batting an eyelid and who would miss an entire season with a broken leg. All of this - drafting, trading, etc. - is a risk. I really think you need to look at the total portfolio in the same way you look at an investment portfolio - you diversify, accept that some things will do better than expected, some worse, and hope that you come out ahead in the time horizon you're investing for.
What i meant was we knew we were getting a player who could rack up possessions and didn't have major queries over his body.
 

Brishawk

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Maybe we have Matt Rowell or Noah Anderson running around for us who knows.

The Mitchell trade was a masterstroke but we knew what we were getting can't say the same about O'Meara.
Maybe. But it would be at the risk of being in a toxic death spiral like north...or even Essendon. Those clubs will be sh*t for years and if they don’t build enough of a list quickly they could be prolonged period down the bottom like Carlton and Melbourne before them. Neither have exactly emerged from their period of failure either...
 

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HODGEYROAD

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Maybe. But it would be at the risk of being in a toxic death spiral like north...or even Essendon. Those clubs will be sh*t for years and if they don’t build enough of a list quickly they could be prolonged period down the bottom like Carlton and Melbourne before them. Neither have exactly emerged from their period of failure either...
It's hard to know, but it doesn't exactly look like we're going anywhere under our current strategy either, it'll be 6 years since our last finals win shortly and the next finals win seems miles off. In the next 2-3 years we'll lose big Boy, Bruest and Gunston who are key cogs of the current team, not only will they have to be replaced just to remain status quo we'll need to fill all the other holes also. Big job ahead.
 

Brishawk

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It's hard to know, but it doesn't exactly look like we're going anywhere under our current strategy either, it'll be 6 years since our last finals win shortly and the next finals win seems miles off. In the next 2-3 years we'll lose big Boy, Bruest and Gunston who are key cogs of the current team, not only will they have to be replaced just to remain status quo we'll need to fill all the other holes also. Big job ahead.
Current strategy started after we missed cogs. We have since prioritised the draft. Maybe we can say the old strategy was still on display last year meaning we are in year one of a new strategy. The players we draft will develop faster with McEvoy, Gunston, Breust and Burgoyne (this year) on the list. We will get way more improvement from developing the squad than we will from replacing Gunston (as an example).
 

HODGEYROAD

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Current strategy started after we missed cogs. We have since prioritised the draft. Maybe we can say the old strategy was still on display last year meaning we are in year one of a new strategy. The players we draft will develop faster with McEvoy, Gunston, Breust and Burgoyne (this year) on the list. We will get way more improvement from developing the squad than we will from replacing Gunston (as an example).
How long do you think it'll take for us to be playing finals again ? Seriously competing in finals ? Pretty tough question to answer I know as lots of things to play out.
 

Brishawk

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How long do you think it'll take for us to be playing finals again ? Seriously competing in finals ? Pretty tough question to answer I know as lots of things to play out.
Going a draft slanted strategy involves a lot of luck, especially after the first round. If we get that luck from the last two drafts and the next one we can play finals and seriously contend in the next three years while we still have guys like Mitchell, Breust and wingard. There is a lot of unrealised potential on the list but it is still developing. Essentially, the 2005-2008 approach with the added potential of free agents.

But that is a lot of things going right, including finding an elite kpf from on or off the list. They haven’t gone right the past 3 years so maybe we are due 😀

if that doesn’t happen we will face a much longer build trying to build an entirely new midfield but in my view any build that takes more than 3-4 years is more than one build ie you failed once and then started another build. There are so many ways to bring talent to clubs the idea of a decade building is essentially saying you didn’t have anyone under 25 on the list you could take forward when you started.

There isn’t enough potential gun mids on the list to think they will be the kind of midfield that wins a premiership in the absence of the senior mids on the list. Some nice outside options in downie, brockman, Mitchell. But primarily only Finn for the inside outside of Worpel. Will have to find them in this draft and next at minimum.
 

cryptor

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How long do you think it'll take for us to be playing finals again ? Seriously competing in finals ? Pretty tough question to answer I know as lots of things to play out.
It's early days but I see enough spark in the team this year to qualify in the bottom half of the 8 with a bit of luck (injury to Day doesn't help but we're pretty healthy atm otherwise). From there a good result for where we're at would be to end the season of an elimination finalist. Then next year try to make the leap into the top half of the 8 and see if we can pull off a 2008.

But like I said, it's early days and we'll need luck given where we're at currently.
 

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Going a draft slanted strategy involves a lot of luck, especially after the first round. If we get that luck from the last two drafts and the next one we can play finals and seriously contend in the next three years while we still have guys like Mitchell, Breust and wingard. There is a lot of unrealised potential on the list but it is still developing. Essentially, the 2005-2008 approach with the added potential of free agents.

But that is a lot of things going right, including finding an elite kpf from on or off the list. They haven’t gone right the past 3 years so maybe we are due 😀

if that doesn’t happen we will face a much longer build trying to build an entirely new midfield but in my view any build that takes more than 3-4 years is more than one build ie you failed once and then started another build. There are so many ways to bring talent to clubs the idea of a decade building is essentially saying you didn’t have anyone under 25 on the list you could take forward when you started.

There isn’t enough potential gun mids on the list to think they will be the kind of midfield that wins a premiership in the absence of the senior mids on the list. Some nice outside options in downie, brockman, Mitchell. But primarily only Finn for the inside outside of Worpel. Will have to find them in this draft and next at minimum.
That means we need to get lows picks 1-5.

If we over achieve and finish mid-table then we can't replace our mids or forwards with the talent we need and we go nowhere.

Finishing 8-12 for the next two years is a real possibility and means more time rebuilding. Nobody wants to come to Hawthorn for success right now.

The alt to getting top draft picks is luck with late ones - i know what i would prefer
 
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Brishawk

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That means we need to get lows picks 1-5.

If we over achieve and finish mid-table then we can't replace our mids or forwards with the talent we need and we go nowhere.

Finishing 8-12 for the next two years is a real possibility and means more time rebuilding. Nobody wants to come to Hawthorn for success right now.

The alt to getting top draft picks is luck with late ones - i know what i would prefer
No highly rated key position players in this draft but plenty of mids. Teach our kids to win and draft in some talented mids (who come on quicker) and we look a sh*t load better to prospective kpf looming to move.
 

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No highly rated key position players in this draft but plenty of mids. Teach our kids to win and draft in some talented mids (who come on quicker) and we look a sh*t load better to prospective kpf looming to move.
I'm not saying picks 1-5 for just 2021. We will need at least 2 or more drafts with picks 1-5 to fix our issues. You might be more optimistic.


But i suspect we won't get those picks this year anyway.
 

Brishawk

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I'm not saying picks 1-5 for just 2021. We will need at least 2 or more drafts with picks 1-5 to fix our issues. You might be more optimistic.


But i suspect we won't get those picks this year anyway.
I’m never going to want the club to lose and there is no evidence a prolonged period of losing leads to winning a flag 🤷‍♂️

Personnel sorts itself out eventually. A winning culture is harder to develop than a key forward.
 

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Luv_our_club

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I’m never going to want the club to lose and there is no evidence a prolonged period of losing leads to winning a flag 🤷‍♂️

Personnel sorts itself out eventually. A winning culture is harder to develop than a key forward.
I really dislike and think it's a shortcut to make an equation between wanting to lose and needing high end talent.

It is the kind of assumption made on here that ends all conversation.

Needing top picks does not mean wanting to lose on Saturday afternoon. It is an oversimplification to suggest so.

The only question for any club, regardless of culture, is how to get ELITE talent in the door. Hawthorn, who has had more elitle talent through the door than any club, should know that better than any club. At the moment we are a long way off.

Currently, finishing bottom 5 is the pathway, unless you are Syd.

Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond built their cups on multiple top 5 picks this century.

Who said anything about trying to lose?

Planning for mediocrity - with who you recruit, when you recruit them - that is different. Personally Tom Phillips could come in that categroy. Helps us win a game. Doesn't make us contenders, ever. Or he does....
 
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fieval

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I really dislike and think it's a shortcut to make an equation between wanting to lose and needing high end talent.

It is the kind of assumption made on here that ends all conversation.

Needing top picks does not mean wanting to lose on Saturday afternoon. It is an oversimplification to suggest so.

The only question for any club, regardless of culture, is how to get ELITE talent in the door. Hawthorn, who has had more elitle talent through the door than any club, should know that better than any club.

Currently, finishing bottom 5 is the pathway, unless you are Syd.

Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond built their cups on multiple top 5 picks this century.
What follows is purely my own thoughts... Not rubbishing anyone else's !

Finishing bottom 4 year after year doesn't fix it (look at Carltank...)

You need 1,2 or 3 years of aggressive picks in the draft followed by shrewd picks of more senior / veteran players. Then the younger ones grow together and the veterans address identified needs. Of course the trades needed to get those youngsters in may cause heartburn in the supporters (Croady).

Gold Coast get gifted young players year after year and they get broken going against seasoned veteran bodies (ala O'Meara, imagine if he could have been introduced into the league in a more managed way !) Rowell could be another (though hopefully not).

Of course it isn't easy ! But just finishing in the lower table is not a panacea.
Nor is bringing in seasoned players every year ! It may just be prolonging the pain...

It would be nice to identify a "Hodge" (Day ??)
Plus a Sam and Lewie.... (insert here !!)
Oh, and a Roughie and Franklin ! (Roughie is first because I believe he was more important to our club... nd a hell of a bloke too !! )
 

Luv_our_club

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What follows is purely my own thoughts... Not rubbishing anyone else's !

Finishing bottom 4 year after year doesn't fix it (look at Carltank...)

You need 1,2 or 3 years of aggressive picks in the draft followed by shrewd picks of more senior / veteran players. Then the younger ones grow together and the veterans address identified needs. Of course the trades needed to get those youngsters in may cause heartburn in the supporters (Croady).

Gold Coast get gifted young players year after year and they get broken going against seasoned veteran bodies (ala O'Meara, imagine if he could have been introduced into the league in a more managed way !) Rowell could be another (though hopefully not).

Of course it isn't easy ! But just finishing in the lower table is not a panacea.
Nor is bringing in seasoned players every year ! It may just be prolonging the pain...

It would be nice to identify a "Hodge" (Day ??)
Plus a Sam and Lewie.... (insert here !!)
Oh, and a Roughie and Franklin ! (Roughie is first because I believe he was more important to our club... nd a hell of a bloke too !! )
3 years of aggressive picks - top 5-10 - is pretty much what you expect from a rebuild.

That means 3 x top 30 picks also

And 3 x top 50 picks also.

As a minumum - normally you can get more.
 

Brishawk

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I really dislike and think it's a shortcut to make an equation between wanting to lose and needing high end talent.

It is the kind of assumption made on here that ends all conversation.

Needing top picks does not mean wanting to lose on Saturday afternoon. It is an oversimplification to suggest so.

The only question for any club, regardless of culture, is how to get ELITE talent in the door. Hawthorn, who has had more elitle talent through the door than any club, should know that better than any club. At the moment we are a long way off.

Currently, finishing bottom 5 is the pathway, unless you are Syd.

Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond built their cups on multiple top 5 picks this century.

Who said anything about trying to lose?

Planning for mediocrity - with who you recruit, when you recruit them - that is different. Personally Tom Phillips could come in that categroy. Helps us win a game. Doesn't make us contenders, ever. Or he does....
Well Phillips played in a grand final and was one kick away from being a premiership player. He can’t take us there on his own though. I’m not sure why you are so hung up on picks 1-5 when in actual fact we just need elite talent. Richmond have Riewoldt and lynch. Neither were top 10 picks for Richmond but there you go, both are multiple premiership players. Why wouldn’t we build a list with whatever resources we have and put ourselves into a position to lure king out of gc? If Lewis becomes a star in the meantime then that is just our luck but get the best players we can in and fill the gaps when it becomes critical to our immediate premiership chances.
 

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Well Phillips played in a grand final and was one kick away from being a premiership player. He can’t take us there on his own though. I’m not sure why you are so hung up on picks 1-5 when in actual fact we just need elite talent. Richmond have Riewoldt and lynch. Neither were top 10 picks for Richmond but there you go, both are multiple premiership players. Why wouldn’t we build a list with whatever resources we have and put ourselves into a position to lure king out of gc? If Lewis becomes a star in the meantime then that is just our luck but get the best players we can in and fill the gaps when it becomes critical to our immediate premiership chances.
I don't get why you are hung up on the details. We need elite talent.

Richmond sucked with Riewoltd for years. Phillips does not move the needle at all. Lynch joined the premiership Tigers.


The Hawks need players that move the needle. The only way to get them is the top 5 picks in the draft.

For the next 3-4 years will will lose as much talent as we gain - just through reitrements.- and the rebuild could really drag on and on - as we don't get access to low picks.

The Hawks should have a long term rebuild stratergy of many youths with elite talent coming through together.

The threepeat afforded us that chance to really suffer - but we missed that chance by trying to stay "arround the mark"
 
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Brishawk

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That means we need to get lows picks 1-5.

If we over achieve and finish mid-table then we can't replace our mids or forwards with the talent we need and we go nowhere.

Finishing 8-12 for the next two years is a real possibility and means more time rebuilding. Nobody wants to come to Hawthorn for success right now.

The alt to getting top draft picks is luck with late ones - i know what i would prefer
I’m just going to quote your first response to me in which you state:
1. We need to get low picks.
2. if we finish mid table we can’t replace our mids and forwards and we go nowhere.
3. finishing 8-12 for the next two years will cause our rebuild to take longer.
4. no one wants to come to us right now.
5. the alternative to getting top draft picks up s luck with late ones [and you prefer to take your chances with high picks]

if this isn’t an argument for somehow finishing low and getting high draft picks then I don’t know what you are suggesting as none of your subsequent posts have made it any clearer.
 

fieval

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Admittedly I am a week behind everyone else (just watching Richmond game).

We can use 2 of TOB,Lewis or Kossie.. (assuming Lewis can actually get on the park)
We can use 2 of O'Meara , Worpel or Mitchell...

I like what we have back... although Sizzles back changes that, maybe for the better.
Hardwick looks great (ala Grue) , CJ could be useful. (Greaves could be very useful too ).
And Scrimshaw just adds to the possibilities (although for now he covers for the loss of Day, Very sad seeing that injury).

Frost look the goods as one of our "Big" backs. Hartigan was serviceable.
So.. does Impey move ?? (if everyone available is back). If he does, where ?

Phillips is a "serviceable" wing so far (not a bad thing but we need a "good" wing too)
Moore is OK , Brockman could potentially be awesome. Add in Bruest and Gunners ... it comes down to the talls (Kosi and ...? )

Hoping that one of Downie or Finn could fill that Jordan Lewis roll.


Gunners, Wingard back will be great in the short term but may hide problems that appear in 2 to 3 years.

All in all I feel we aren't far away from finals.
Our Midfield is probably our "Achilles Heel" at this stage.

And when Day is back do we keep him at half back (my personal choice for now) or move him up ?
 

eldorado

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I’m not sure why you are so hung up on picks 1-5 when in actual fact we just need elite talent.
This.

Some strange Dalek mantra. Don't finish 9th! You only get pick 10! Finish 5th from the bottom, then you get Pick 5! he will be twice as good!!!

There's no evidence that repeated bottom 5 finishes are required to magically hoist you up the ladder. It's ******* bizarre.
 

Judd2Sewell

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This.

Some strange Dalek mantra. Don't finish 9th! You only get pick 10! Finish 5th from the bottom, then you get Pick 5! he will be twice as good!!!

There's no evidence that repeated bottom 5 finishes are required to magically hoist you up the ladder. It's ******* bizarre.
The point is finishing lower gives you access to the higher rated players that you don't have access to if you're a middle of the road team.

But as you allude to you still need to nail the pick and develop the players.
 

eldorado

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The point is finishing lower gives you access to the higher rated players that you don't have access to if you're a middle of the road team.

But as you allude to you still need to nail the pick and develop the players.
Possibly, but...

1. History says that in every draft there are only a very small number of elite players, and then MANY players who might go from 5-20 depending on the teams needs. How often do you see 'the year xxxx draft revisited', and, apart from the top 3, players who were ranked top 5 are now assessed as 20th best, and vice versa. The idea that Pick 5 will improve us twice as fast as pick 10 just seems entrenched in some people's minds purely by its numerical value.

2. In sports such as the NBA, with 5 on court, one elite player can make a massive difference. This is simply not the case in the AFL, with 18 on the field. You need them all to be high quality. While getting elite talent is great, it's not the be all and end all. You are lucky if you have genuine game-changers/match-winners (Judd, Buddy, Dusty, -cough cough Danger-), but you can make do without them, as a number of teams have shown. Other teams have shown that repeatedly getting high picks hasn't helped.
 
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Brishawk

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The difference between first and last is one pick. And after that pick, first takes all their picks prior to the team that finished last.

to offset the effect of missing on that first pick, a top team can sell the success of the side and attract a free agent or maybe trade in players. salary cap pressure obviously negates some of that benefit.

So yes, having a top pick can net you a top talent but the majority of your team, and even most of your best players in a premiership side are not going to have been players you drafted in the top 5 of the draft. As far as I can recall, hawthorn would have been as close as any team with hodge, buddy, roughy and Ellis in 2008. And only two of them went on to win four premierships with the club. And that was with the advantage of priority picks. I’m sure no one on here is thinking Ellis was the difference in 2008, though he played a fine game. I’m sure we could have found a player capable of similar output else where in the draft. So the other three were all time great players. But it is literally only those three. So conceivably what we need to make up that difference between the current list and the 2008 list is two top 5 picks (we have dgb who I count as one but technically just outside that) plus select and develop players from the rest of the draft etc to at least the same standard.

given how compromised the draft is now getting those players is potentially harder to do through the draft than ever before. Gws, the swans and gc are basically monopolising top end talent through academies and preferential arrangements.
 

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