Player Watch Jaeger O'Meara 2021 (Rolling into year 5)

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Judd2Sewell

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 31, 2008
13,308
18,852
AFL Club
Hawthorn
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Nuggets
Possibly, but...

1. History says that in every draft there are only a very small number of elite players, and then MANY players who might go from 5-20 depending on the teams needs. How often do you see 'the year xxxx draft revisited', and, apart from the top 3, players who were ranked top 5 are now assessed as 20th best, and vice versa. The idea that Pick 5 will improve us twice as fast as pick 10 just seems entrenched in some people's minds purely by its numerical value.

2. In sports such as the NBA, with 5 on court, one elite player can make a massive difference. This is simply not the case in the AFL, with 18 on the AFL. You need them all to be high quality. While getting elite talent is great, it's not the be all and end all. You are lucky if you have genuine game-changers (Buddy, Dusty, -cough cough Danger-), but you can make do without them, as a number of teams have shown. Other teams have shown that repeatedly getting them hasn't helped
Rookies:
Papley - 24 y/o - pick 14, in 2016
Wicks - 21 y/o - Cat B selection, in 2018
Lloyd - 27 y/o - pick 13, in 2013

Fourth rounders:
Dawson - 23 y/o - pick 56, in 2015

Second Rounders:
Taylor - 19 y/o - pick 36, in 2019 (since cut)
Warner - 19 y/o - pick 39, in 2019
Gould - 20 y/o - pick 26, in 2019
Rowbottom - 20 y/o - pick 25, in 2018
McCartin - 21 y/o - pick 33, in 2017
Hayward - 22 y/o - pick 21, in 2016
Hewett - 25y/o - pick 32, in 2013

First rounders:
Florent - 22 y/o - pick 16, in 2016
Stephens - 20 y/o - pick 5, in 2019
McDonald - 19 y/o - pick 5, in 2020

Not including the likes of Heeney, Gulden, Campbell, Blakey and Mills who were gifted.

Just goes to show that if you draft smart and develop your players then you don't particularly need the top 10 picks to rebuild.

Though I think you need the elite talent to propel you into a contender as opposed to just being a strong team.

Our elite talent from our peak sides were all fairly high picks - Hodge, Burgoyne, Lewis, Roughie, Franklin, Rioli, Birchall all first rounders. Mitchell and Gunston second rounders. Fleshed out by guys like Breust, Gibson, Lake who were all late/rookie picks.
 

Dew2KFC2Flag08

Senior List
Oct 12, 2008
218
433
Melb, south east suburbs
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Arsenal, Portland Trail Blazers
Rookies:
Papley - 24 y/o - pick 14, in 2016
Wicks - 21 y/o - Cat B selection, in 2018
Lloyd - 27 y/o - pick 13, in 2013

Fourth rounders:
Dawson - 23 y/o - pick 56, in 2015

Second Rounders:
Taylor - 19 y/o - pick 36, in 2019 (since cut)
Warner - 19 y/o - pick 39, in 2019
Gould - 20 y/o - pick 26, in 2019
Rowbottom - 20 y/o - pick 25, in 2018
McCartin - 21 y/o - pick 33, in 2017
Hayward - 22 y/o - pick 21, in 2016
Hewett - 25y/o - pick 32, in 2013

First rounders:
Florent - 22 y/o - pick 16, in 2016
Stephens - 20 y/o - pick 5, in 2019
McDonald - 19 y/o - pick 5, in 2020

Not including the likes of Heeney, Gulden, Campbell, Blakey and Mills who were gifted.

Just goes to show that if you draft smart and develop your players then you don't particularly need the top 10 picks to rebuild.

Though I think you need the elite talent to propel you into a contender as opposed to just being a strong team.

Our elite talent from our peak sides were all fairly high picks - Hodge, Burgoyne, Lewis, Roughie, Franklin, Rioli, Birchall all first rounders. Mitchell and Gunston second rounders. Fleshed out by guys like Breust, Gibson, Lake who were all late/rookie picks.
It is an insane amount of talent to be gifted. Makes it tough to compare our rebuild to theirs.
 

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PhatHQ

Premiership Player
Sep 26, 2015
3,444
4,267
Newcastle
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Regardless of on field expectation and output, Jags has continued an elite level of professionalism and leadership at Hawthorn.
You can’t put a value on that via draft picks.

I honestly think he needs someone with genuine pace on the inside for him and Tom to be at their best. Hopefully that is rectified post 2021 or discovered this season in house.

Looking at the demolition of the Tigers yesterday by the Swans, both of who I haven’t enjoyed watching for a variety of reasons, Sydney were fantastic. Their drafting outside of their concessions has been brilliant and allowed the likes of Kennedy and Parker to play their role without having to gut run and cover elsewhere. Hawks may need to tweak their defensive structure to allow this to happen for Jags.
At GC, yes... still a kid, he was the number 3. I think that his best is an outside/inside mix off the HFF... pretty much the role Worps is being asked to develop.
Playing this role should also give him some longevity not grinding out 13-14km through his knees and let him get more involved forward of centre.
I see him get picked for poor decisions and delivery but if Jags is 60-70 out with a little space he punches a pretty nice ball to 35-40m, right in the zone for Gunston, TOB, Lewis, Kosi to do their best work on a lead.

I’d do the trade again for Jags.

I would have also pulled the trade trigger on a particular player 2 years ago to get another pick inside the Will Day selection
 

Luv_our_club

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 14, 2017
6,576
12,398
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I’m just going to quote your first response to me in which you state:
1. We need to get low picks.
2. if we finish mid table we can’t replace our mids and forwards and we go nowhere.
3. finishing 8-12 for the next two years will cause our rebuild to take longer.
4. no one wants to come to us right now.
5. the alternative to getting top draft picks up s luck with late ones [and you prefer to take your chances with high picks]

if this isn’t an argument for somehow finishing low and getting high draft picks then I don’t know what you are suggesting as none of your subsequent posts have made it any clearer.
I appreciate hearing an alternative view point from you Briswhawk, but we seem to always end up hitting the same sandbag where you call out anyone who disagrees with your POV as a tanker.

If I was harsh I would say that it is bordering on you virtue signaling for the likes - "I don't think we should try to lose", you say so often as an accusation.

I feel comfortable being so honest with you because you just tried to line me up against the wall as a tanker. As a Carlton, Melbourne, Pies type tanker. A tanker who wants to destroy culture and live for the draft.

Surely you are better than this low baiting style of posting.

Can we please, please put that counter argument to bed. It is cheap and a short cut to nowhere.

Lets move on to talking about how we get GENERATIONAL players onto our list - because every club that contends has them, and we do not right now.
 

darthmann

Club Legend
Jun 11, 2013
2,070
4,558
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I appreciate hearing an alternative view point from you Briswhawk, but we seem to always end up hitting the same sandbag where you call out anyone who disagrees with your POV as a tanker.

If I was harsh I would say that it is bordering on you virtue signaling for the likes - "I don't think we should try to lose", you say so often as an accusation.

I feel comfortable being so honest with you because you just tried to line me up against the wall as a tanker. As a Carlton, Melbourne, Pies type tanker. A tanker who wants to destroy culture and live for the draft.

Surely you are better than this low baiting style of posting.

Can we please, please put that counter argument to bed. It is cheap and a short cut to nowhere.

Lets move on to talking about how we get GENERATIONAL players onto our list - because every club that contends has them, and we do not right now.
there are only 3 ways to get players on to ur list so its probably gonna be one of those
 

Brishawk

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 17, 2008
21,603
37,229
Brisvegas
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I appreciate hearing an alternative view point from you Briswhawk, but we seem to always end up hitting the same sandbag where you call out anyone who disagrees with your POV as a tanker.

If I was harsh I would say that it is bordering on you virtue signaling for the likes - "I don't think we should try to lose", you say so often as an accusation.

I feel comfortable being so honest with you because you just tried to line me up against the wall as a tanker. As a Carlton, Melbourne, Pies type tanker. A tanker who wants to destroy culture and live for the draft.

Surely you are better than this low baiting style of posting.

Can we please, please put that counter argument to bed. It is cheap and a short cut to nowhere.

Lets move on to talking about how we get GENERATIONAL players onto our list - because every club that contends has them, and we do not right now.
The part of your view I don’t understand is how we get generational talent onto the list. When I asked you for details, you deflected.

Put it this way, my view is young players develop best and fastest when supported experienced players. This is what Clarko has said about the reasons for retaining Breust, Gunston and Burgoyne. It is why he recruits players like Scully and Phillips whether or not they are planned to be part of a premiership team.

If you have another view, please explain it without the paranoia around being called a tanker (I never accused you of this).
 

Luv_our_club

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 14, 2017
6,576
12,398
AFL Club
Hawthorn
The part of your view I don’t understand is how we get generational talent onto the list. When I asked you for details, you deflected.

Put it this way, my view is young players develop best and fastest when supported experienced players. This is what Clarko has said about the reasons for retaining Breust, Gunston and Burgoyne. It is why he recruits players like Scully and Phillips whether or not they are planned to be part of a premiership team.

If you have another view, please explain it without the paranoia around being called a tanker (I never accused you of this).
Was Schwab tanking when we lost a Prelim by under 10 points with a very young team and he decided over the summer that we couldn't win the flag and we needed to trade out a 21 year old star in our spine that 15 other clubs wanted and would ruin out chance the next year?

Was Clarkson tanking when he came to the club in late 2004 and said: 1. We won't select the team on merit - we have a 4 year plan; 2. If you don't like it then good, we are happy to organise a trade and we would love the picks. 3. if you accept these terms, then you might be here for our future success, but more than likely you won't

Rebuilding the team through the draft - seeking truly elite talent - and realising you really need it - does not mean giving up on winning like a wet flannel.

Finishing in the bottom 5 can come from us trading out players with value - that is not tanking. It can come from us playing youth over merit- that is not tanking. It can come from changing coaches - that is not tanking. It can come from us experimenting with game style - that is not tanking.

Losing games on purpose is tanking. Unless someone suggests that - please put the `wanting to lose' motif to bed.


[on a personal note: You never "asked for details"...not in this thread.....and I never "deflected"- when did that conversation happen? If you asked i would have answered - and if i don't answer, then ask again. There is no need to start sledging people as tankers.]
 

eldorado

Previously eldorado
Oct 18, 2003
13,228
29,651
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Athletic Bilbao
I don't care what you call it...if you start the season not playing the best team you can to win every game, and actually hope to finish low...YOU ARE ******* TANKING!!!!


Everything else is just semantic bullshit..if you are playing without the aim to finish as high as you possibly, with the actual reward of high draft picks in mind for finishing low...regardless of whatever Jedi mind-games you play with yourself to convince yourself it's not really tanking...IT'S ******* TANKING.

What ******* planet are we on???
 

TheFourPillars

Brownlow Medallist
May 6, 2009
10,694
22,857
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Was Schwab tanking when we lost a Prelim by under 10 points with a very young team and he decided over the summer that we couldn't win the flag and we needed to trade out a 21 year old star in our spine that 15 other clubs wanted and would ruin out chance the next year?

Was Clarkson tanking when he came to the club in late 2004 and said: 1. We won't select the team on merit - we have a 4 year plan; 2. If you don't like it then good, we are happy to organise a trade and we would love the picks. 3. if you accept these terms, then you might be here for our future success, but more than likely you won't

Rebuilding the team through the draft - seeking truly elite talent - and realising you really need it - does not mean giving up on winning like a wet flannel.

Finishing in the bottom 5 can come from us trading out players with value - that is not tanking. It can come from us playing youth over merit- that is not tanking. It can come from changing coaches - that is not tanking. It can come from us experimenting with game style - that is not tanking.

Losing games on purpose is tanking. Unless someone suggests that - please put the `wanting to lose' motif to bed.


[on a personal note: You never "asked for details"...not in this thread.....and I never "deflected"- when did that conversation happen? If you asked i would have answered - and if i don't answer, then ask again. There is no need to start sledging people as tankers.]
Yeah tell that to the marketing department and the rest of the players on the list. Guess what that rebuild of yours is no guarantee. You end up like nth where all your sponsors drop off and u r forced to make more painful decisions. Before someone jumps at me with sydney and pt adelaide. They are surrounded by experienced players. Its the only way to do it. Gone are the days where u bottom out and there are no consequences. Covid has ensured that. The Afl itself is struggling to survive.
 

bris tarangau

Club Legend
Aug 11, 2013
1,781
2,221
Brisbane QLD
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Arsenal, Barcelona
I don't care what you call it...if you start the season not playing the best team you can to win every game, and actually hope to finish low...YOU ARE ******* TANKING!!!!


Everything else is just semantic bullshit..if you are playing without the aim to finish as high as you possibly, with the actual reward of high draft picks in mind for finishing low...regardless of whatever Jedi mind-games you play with yourself to convince yourself it's not really tanking...IT'S ******* TANKING.

What ******* planet are we on???
Oh yeah!
Everything else is just semantic bullshit....

Well ******* said!:D:D
 

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LMGjr

Premium Platinum
Jul 25, 2020
638
913
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Clarkson was building his own list, and starting from scratch with his own vision.
This is what makes him truly great, that is forgotten about by the media, and other dickhead club supporters.

He is no SooK Scott who got given a team of drugged up (hate to say it) previously well coached w***ers - yes I will take every single opportunity I get to rag on the handbags and their drug cheating premierships.

Anyway Clarko rules :)

Apart from getting in my rag about handbags and their drug cheating ways, which made this reply worth it in my eyes, what has tanking and everything else got to do with how JoM is currently going? As per the thread.....

JoM is going like JoM can after such a bad injury - it is what it is - lets just get over it and get on with it.

Did I mention the handbags suck drugs from the frozen water man and that Clarko is a legend?
 

bris tarangau

Club Legend
Aug 11, 2013
1,781
2,221
Brisbane QLD
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Arsenal, Barcelona
This is what makes him truly great, that is forgotten about by the media, and other dickhead club supporters.

He is no SooK Scott who got given a team of drugged up (hate to say it) previously well coached w***ers - yes I will take every single opportunity I get to rag on the handbags and their drug cheating premierships.

Anyway Clarko rules :)

Apart from getting in my rag about handbags and their drug cheating ways, which made this reply worth it in my eyes, what has tanking and everything else got to do with how JoM is currently going? As per the thread.....

JoM is going like JoM can after such a bad injury - it is what it is - lets just get over it and get on with it.

Did I mention the handbags suck drugs from the frozen water man and that Clarko is a legend?
Everything you said here is true. :thumbsu::thumbsu::):)
 

HODGEYROAD

Brownlow Medallist
May 10, 2007
18,323
19,879
Bonbeach
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Arsenal Fc Portland Trailblazers
Was Schwab tanking when we lost a Prelim by under 10 points with a very young team and he decided over the summer that we couldn't win the flag and we needed to trade out a 21 year old star in our spine that 15 other clubs wanted and would ruin out chance the next year?

Was Clarkson tanking when he came to the club in late 2004 and said: 1. We won't select the team on merit - we have a 4 year plan; 2. If you don't like it then good, we are happy to organise a trade and we would love the picks. 3. if you accept these terms, then you might be here for our future success, but more than likely you won't

Rebuilding the team through the draft - seeking truly elite talent - and realising you really need it - does not mean giving up on winning like a wet flannel.

Finishing in the bottom 5 can come from us trading out players with value - that is not tanking. It can come from us playing youth over merit- that is not tanking. It can come from changing coaches - that is not tanking. It can come from us experimenting with game style - that is not tanking.

Losing games on purpose is tanking. Unless someone suggests that - please put the `wanting to lose' motif to bed.


[on a personal note: You never "asked for details"...not in this thread.....and I never "deflected"- when did that conversation happen? If you asked i would have answered - and if i don't answer, then ask again. There is no need to start sledging people as tankers.]
Fantastic post.
 

Brishawk

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 17, 2008
21,603
37,229
Brisvegas
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Was Schwab tanking when we lost a Prelim by under 10 points with a very young team and he decided over the summer that we couldn't win the flag and we needed to trade out a 21 year old star in our spine that 15 other clubs wanted and would ruin out chance the next year?

Was Clarkson tanking when he came to the club in late 2004 and said: 1. We won't select the team on merit - we have a 4 year plan; 2. If you don't like it then good, we are happy to organise a trade and we would love the picks. 3. if you accept these terms, then you might be here for our future success, but more than likely you won't

Rebuilding the team through the draft - seeking truly elite talent - and realising you really need it - does not mean giving up on winning like a wet flannel.

Finishing in the bottom 5 can come from us trading out players with value - that is not tanking. It can come from us playing youth over merit- that is not tanking. It can come from changing coaches - that is not tanking. It can come from us experimenting with game style - that is not tanking.

Losing games on purpose is tanking. Unless someone suggests that - please put the `wanting to lose' motif to bed.


[on a personal note: You never "asked for details"...not in this thread.....and I never "deflected"- when did that conversation happen? If you asked i would have answered - and if i don't answer, then ask again. There is no need to start sledging people as tankers.]
I literally did not use the word tanking 🤦‍♂️

since 2004 the following changes have occurred:
1. Priority picks are no longer available. 50% of the four top 5 picks we drafted to the club that played in the 2008 grand final were taken as priority picks. Had there been no priority picks, the incentive for bottoming out hard for a prolonged period is greatly reduced.
2. There are two additional clubs in the league which have had a priority access to elite talent with the effect of diluting the talent across the AFL.
3. the introduction of the northern academies dilutes the talent pool available in the draft.
4. the introduction of the nga academies further dilutes the talent pool available in the draft.
5. the reintroduction of priority picks exclusively for gc further dilutes the talent pool available in the draft.
6. free agency compensation picks dilute the quality of draft picks available to club meaning for any club not a beneficiary of compensation, the talent pool available in the draft is diluted.

Contrast these things with other things that have changed:
1. Restricted free agency makes it easier to recruit elite talent.
2. Unrestricted agency makes it easier to recruit elite talent.
3. all free agency, including delisted free agency makes it easier to fill holes on the list without draft picks.
4. Additional list management facilities (preseason and mid season listing) make it easier to fill holes on the list without draft picks.
5. Trading future picks makes it easier to trade for elite talent.
6. trading future picks makes it easier to fill holes in the list.

Putting all this together and generalising:
1. Top 5 draft picks are harder to get even if you finish bottom 5.
2. The talent available across the entire draft is diluted when compared to 2004.
3. It is much easier to bring in elite talent and missing pieces through non-draft approaches.

So assuming the optimal strategy in 2004 was a bottom out hard and draft strategy, do you think maybe it may no longer be the optimal strategy?
 

darthmann

Club Legend
Jun 11, 2013
2,070
4,558
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
GSW
Can we play him every other week?

Seriously, take a bow, you were a lone hand in the 1st Qtr while Mitch and Worps continued their love affair of not doing anything for each other.
honestly, I was pretty impressed with Titch's game

I thought he worked super hard and managed to eventually get involved against a guy who grabs, pushes and blocks every contest and completely negated the reigning brownlow medallist last week

JOM immense. Like the Richmond game last year. He really plays well when someone else is doing the defensive work.
 

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