Thanks peeps. I'm sure I'd read $700-$800k in the media a while back but
a) I don't believe much I read on the interwebz
b) Jake hasn't really set the world on fire in the last 18 months
I would say he's easily one of the better young KPP in the comp. $500 seems low, $700k seems high-ish. So I guess around 600k. Maybe 650k.
What's interesting from a Carlton fan's perspective is that Carlisle is more likely if we let Henderson go. And he's reportedly on the way out because we won't meet his salary demands.
Hypothetically we trade out Henderson for pick x, send that to Essendon for Carlisle (maybe some pick swapping). We replace Henderson like-for-like(ish), but paying an extra $150k or so. Would only make sense if we thought Jake was clearly better than Lachie and of course he is two years younger.
It depends on what pick you get for Henderson.
He's apparently all but at Geelong, would they give up a top 10 pick if they finish outside the top 8? Unlikely.
So let's say you get pick 26 and a player (I dunno, say GHS) for Henderson. You package 26 and 21 for Carlisle and it makes attractive reading for both sides.
Geelong receive: Henderson
Geelong lose: GHS and pick 26
Carlton receive: GHS and Carlisle
Carlton lose: pick 21
Essendon receive: pick 21 and 26
Essendon lose: Carlisle.