Things affecting Carlisle's trade value:
- Out of contract
- Best form practically unsighted for two seasons
- Has a large disliking for the club (allegedly)
- Will get greater money elsewhere
- Current club is on the decline
- Current club has been devastated by the "supplement saga"
- Potential WADA ban
- Potential to trigger AFLPA clauses to become a Free Agent a la Paddy Ryder's threats
Basically, what I see is a situation where the PSD become's a realistically viable option - unlike every other trade proposition on BigFooty where it's essentially "give us your best player for a third rounder or he'll walk to the PSD lol" talk. There are a myriad of reasons why Carlisle would not stay at Essendon, so it seems unlikely that there is any way that Essendon could prevent him from leaving. As such, if Essendon play their usual hardball, then he'll be out and into the PSD in a heartbeat, IMO. It really does seem like Essendon are backed into a position where they are forced to take what they are given, and will rely on generosity in offers from other clubs (usually performed to keep amicable trade relations, but many clubs will not extend this to Essendon, I imagine, given their reputation). This is especially true if Carlisle receives and agrees to offers from multiple clubs, all of which are in a position to take him in the PSD - due to their finishing position and/or salary cap space.