Jake Carlisle Updates

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Ian Dunross

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I’ve been reading the 2015 draft profiles by Quigley.

I’ve been trying to get inside the heads of Elsuagh and co who decided Carlisle was worth the punt with pick 5.

I’m agnostic on the trade because I don’t have enough information. I back the team to make the right call.

A couple of things stood out for me from Quigley’s analysis –

Our pick 5 was always going to be one of either Francis or Parish (depending on who the Bombers picked at 4).

Quigley is of the opinion Francis is presently a flanker who will transition into a midfielder. Do the Saints need this type of player? I have concluded that the team thought Acres could be this type of player and that doubling up on Francis would not be adding to our best 18 considerably. Similar style of players. Francis was more dominant as a junior. But another sign in the confidence in Acres (rightly or wrongly).

Quigley says of Parish – in another draft, he would only be the 4th or 5thbest midfielder. This is a pretty damning statement of a player taken at pick 5 in the draft. I’m sure Parish will go on to be a good player, but is that sort of player the club wants to be spending pick 5 on? Also, Parish is described as an inside mid, and we are already well stocked in that area w Ross, Steven, Dunstan and possibly Acres, not to mention Sinclair and O’Kearney as possible risers from the rookie drafts.

In conclusion, with the available options, and the steal of Gresham at 14, it looks like grabbing Carlisle instead of Parish (as it turned out) was the right move football wise.

Whether Carlisle was the right move, character wise, remains to be seen!!


PS - Quigley rated NOK as his 15th best player in the entire draft pool...

Don't know if Quigley is an expert, but there are plenty who value his opinion on BF fwiw
 

Barrels

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I’ve been reading the 2015 draft profiles by Quigley.

I’ve been trying to get inside the heads of Elsuagh and co who decided Carlisle was worth the punt with pick 5.

I’m agnostic on the trade because I don’t have enough information. I back the team to make the right call.

A couple of things stood out for me from Quigley’s analysis –

Our pick 5 was always going to be one of either Francis or Parish (depending on who the Bombers picked at 4).

Quigley is of the opinion Francis is presently a flanker who will transition into a midfielder. Do the Saints need this type of player? I have concluded that the team thought Acres could be this type of player and that doubling up on Francis would not be adding to our best 18 considerably. Similar style of players. Francis was more dominant as a junior. But another sign in the confidence in Acres (rightly or wrongly).

Quigley says of Parish – in another draft, he would only be the 4th or 5thbest midfielder. This is a pretty damning statement of a player taken at pick 5 in the draft. I’m sure Parish will go on to be a good player, but is that sort of player the club wants to be spending pick 5 on? Also, Parish is described as an inside mid, and we are already well stocked in that area w Ross, Steven, Dunstan and possibly Acres, not to mention Sinclair and O’Kearney as possible risers from the rookie drafts.

In conclusion, with the available options, and the steal of Gresham at 14, it looks like grabbing Carlisle instead of Parish (as it turned out) was the right move football wise.

Whether Carlisle was the right move, character wise, remains to be seen!!


PS - Quigley rated NOK as his 15th best player in the entire draft pool...

Don't know if Quigley is an expert, but there are plenty who value his opinion on BF fwiw
FWIW I watched Parish a lot and I think he's a little overrated.

My initial thought - a bit harsh I'll admit - was that he was a more outside Clint Jones with much better kicking. I think the flash of blonde hair makes him appear more involved and prominent than he sometimes is. Plus he doesn't look like the kind of kid who's body will bulk easily. Does have bucket loads of talent though.

Francis is not, nor ever was, a flanker. He's an undersized key defender or 3rd tall, and when he was played on the ball at the Champs he succeeded by sheer ability rather than any real aptitude for the position; in the pros that won't happen, cos the mids he'd be up against are just as talented, and real mids. His attitude is also too often putrid. He reminds me of a marginally less talented BJ, with less scope to transition into the middle.

IMO Gresham suits us better than the other two would have, and if Carlisle delivers we have a potential AA CHB. It's a gamble I think we had to make.

I'm just fine with the trade.
 
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sauce_head

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FWIW I watched Parish a lot and I think he's a little overrated.

My initial thought - a bit harsh I'll admit - was that he was a more outside Clint Jones with much better kicking. I think the flash of blonde hair makes him appear more involved and prominent than he sometimes is. Plus he doesn't look like the kind of kid who's body will bulk easily. Does have bucket loads of talent though.

Francis is not, nor ever was, a flanker. He's an undersized key defender or 3rd tall, and when he was played on the ball at the Champs he succeeded by sheer ability rather than any real aptitude for the position; in the pros that won't happen, cos he mids he'd be up against are just as talented, and real mids. His attitude is also too often putrid. He reminds me of a maginnally less talented BJ, with less scope to transition into the middle.

IMO Gresham suits us better than the other two would have, and if Carlisle delivers we have a potential AA CHB. It's a gamble I think we had to make.

I'm just fine with the trade.
If Clinton Jones could have kicked he'd have won a brownlow. Freak athlete!
 

Defacto

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I’ve been reading the 2015 draft profiles by Quigley.

I’ve been trying to get inside the heads of Elsuagh and co who decided Carlisle was worth the punt with pick 5.

I’m agnostic on the trade because I don’t have enough information. I back the team to make the right call.

A couple of things stood out for me from Quigley’s analysis –

Our pick 5 was always going to be one of either Francis or Parish (depending on who the Bombers picked at 4).

Quigley is of the opinion Francis is presently a flanker who will transition into a midfielder. Do the Saints need this type of player? I have concluded that the team thought Acres could be this type of player and that doubling up on Francis would not be adding to our best 18 considerably. Similar style of players. Francis was more dominant as a junior. But another sign in the confidence in Acres (rightly or wrongly).

Quigley says of Parish – in another draft, he would only be the 4th or 5thbest midfielder. This is a pretty damning statement of a player taken at pick 5 in the draft. I’m sure Parish will go on to be a good player, but is that sort of player the club wants to be spending pick 5 on? Also, Parish is described as an inside mid, and we are already well stocked in that area w Ross, Steven, Dunstan and possibly Acres, not to mention Sinclair and O’Kearney as possible risers from the rookie drafts.

In conclusion, with the available options, and the steal of Gresham at 14, it looks like grabbing Carlisle instead of Parish (as it turned out) was the right move football wise.

Whether Carlisle was the right move, character wise, remains to be seen!!


PS - Quigley rated NOK as his 15th best player in the entire draft pool...

Don't know if Quigley is an expert, but there are plenty who value his opinion on BF fwiw
great analysis. analysed the SA (home) vs WA (away) game pretty heavily, poured hours and hours into it. play by play. they played francis all over the ground, from the backline, to the midfield, to the forward line. he spent a significant amount of time in the midfield, especially at ball ups. i think they made this known as a way to try and up his draft value to show he can play another role outside of his role in the backline that had been shown to date. anyways, what became apparent pretty quickly is that he did not know how to play the position or use his size. he also was a very selfish/an unaccountable footballer. he wouldnt do the team things like Sheppard/provide a block for his team mates that were in a better position or take the hard ball get that would result in a tackle for another ball up (i.e. play the %ers). he struggled reading the ball in close and knowing how play the inside stuff.

i came out of it thinking that francis probably will only ever be a flanker or a loose man in defence similar to how we used to use fisher or goddard

i'm not saying he wont be a good AFL footballer, just that I dont think he ever will be a genuine midfielder

so like you have pointed out, the need for francis just wasnt there IMO. if we did keep pick 5, i think we probably would have gone for ah chee or milera or potentially loaded up on another KPF in weideman/curnow/mckay
 

Ian Dunross

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And then w Milera or Ah Cheers you have possible go home factors...

And the talls you mention are speculative...

So, yeah, considering all the factors seems like the right trade!
 
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Defacto

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And then w Milera or Ah Cheers you have possible go home factors...

And the talks you mention are speculative...

So, yeah, considering all the factors seems like the right trade!
just on the go home factor. on milera yes

but i wouldnt necessarily say that about ah chee IMO. his brother has been with port for sometime now and hasnt shown any interest in returning to WA. i think cal would be the same. i think he'd probably like melbourne and would settle in pretty nicely. i'd say they're a family who understand what it means to be a professional athlete and cal had probably been working to that for sometime
 

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aussierulesrules

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Lee played as the third tall in his first year and part of the second.
That's not really correct as a general statement as Kosi only played in one and a quarter of the 10 games that Lee played in his first year, so that meant that Lee was the no.2 banana behind Roo in 6 of those other 8 games (Maister was no.2 in the other) and for 3/4 of the game Kosi only played a quarter of and he was our main target pretty much on his own in his return game against Freo over in Perth in round 15 of that year- as both Nick and Kosi were out in that game- and Lee was very good, kicking 3.1, in a losing team (from memory on McPharlin).

It was reported late in that season that over a stretch of games after that round 15 return to the team Lee was ranked no.1 in the whole comp for retaining the ball's that were kicked to him inside 50 and that he was also statistically our most kicked to target inside 50 over that period- even though Roo was playing most of that time- so at worst he was our "2nd tall" through that stretch of 8 games late that year (when he kicked the 16 goals, including 3 lots of 3) and he did perfectly well in that role.

Not that I'd read anything at all into his games the following year- after he had both shoulders reconstructed in the offseason and reportedly had significant ongoing issues with them and as a result looked a shadow of his late-2013 self- but having had a look through our sides in the 3 games he played in 2014, it looks like it was pretty much just he and Roo again up forward for us. Simpkin may have played forward in the last of those games, but that's about it.

So he's only played about 2 and a quarter games in the 3rd-tall role and one of those games was the wet one in New Zealand that we lost to Sydney. The other was his very first game, a couple of weeks earlier. (He was pretty clearly not ready in either of those games though, but came good later in the year, after a 10 week break and chance to bulk up).
 
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plugger66

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That's not really correct as a general statement as Kosi only played in one and a quarter of the 10 games that Lee played in his first year, so that meant that Lee was the no.2 banana behind Roo in 7 of those other 8 games and for 3/4 of the game Kosi only played a quarter of and he was our main target pretty much on his own in his return game against Freo over in Perth in round 15 of that year- as both Nick and Kosi were out in that game- and Lee was very good, kicking 3.1, in a losing team (from memory on McPharlin).

It was reported late in that season that over a stretch of games after that round 15 return to the team Lee was ranked no.1 in the whole comp for retaining the ball's that were kicked to him inside 50 and that he was also statistically our most kicked to target inside 50 over that period- even though Roo was playing most of that time- so at worst he was our "2nd tall" through that stretch of 8 games late that year (when he kicked the 16 goals, including 3 lots of 3) and he did perfectly well in that role.

Not that I'd read anything at all into his games the following year- after he had both shoulders reconstructed in the offseason and reportedly had significant ongoing issues with them and as a result looked a shadow of his late-2013 self- but having had a look through our sides in the 3 games he played in 2014, it looks like it was pretty much just he and Roo again up forward for us. Simpkin may have played forward in the last of those games, but that's about it.

So he's only played about 1 and a quarter games in the 3rd-tall role and that one game was the wet one in New Zealand that we lost to Sydney.

Well if that is all so positive why did the club give up on Lee as a forward. I will take a guess and say it was because he was unfit, slow and had no defensive skills. There is so much more to footy these days than just kicking goals and that is why a player like Plugger would unfortunately struggle. And didn't Rhys Stanley play at CHF in that period?
 

aussierulesrules

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Well if that is all so positive why did the club give up on Lee as a forward. I will take a guess and say it was because he was unfit, slow and had no defensive skills.
Of course he was unfit (if you mean in 2014), he had had both shoulders reconstructed in the offseason and it was reported that he kept on having ongoing significant issues with them throughout that 2nd season and it was blindly obvious that he was a shadow of the Lee who had been comfortably in our best team at the end of the previous season. (Like how Roberton really struggled in 2014 off the back of his major ankle surgery, after he was likewise very good for much of his first season with us). Lee was also being played in the unsuitable ruck role at times in those 3 games he played in 2013, as he replaced the injured Stanley for those 3 games, who had been playing that forward/ruck role.

At the start of the following year (last year) he struggled up forward, but I'm not surprised, as I think his confidence would have taken a big hit the year before and like happened earlier in his career in the WAFL, I think it probably just took a stint in defence for him to get his confidence back up and that's when I personally would have loved for us to have swung him forward again, to see if he still what he showed us in his first year, plus hopefully a more defensive game.

Apparently in one of our VFL games last year he was swung forward at half time after dominating down back earlier in the game and he kicked something like 2 goals 2 in the 2nd half and gave away a gimme goal as well, which is the sort of thing he wasn't capable of earlier in the year, which is when I would have liked us to strike while the iron was hot and see how he'd go with a longer stint forward (either for Sandy or us). But I think because the club were happy with Membrey and wanted to persist with him, they elected to keep Lee playing down back, where we may have more of a need for him going forward.

There is so much more to footy these days than just kicking goals and that is why a player like Plugger would unfortunately struggle.
That's correct, but the one who he would be replacing in our side is probably Membrey and he has a career average of 1.9 tackles per game, to Lee's 1.7 tackles per game, yet Lee so far averages double the number of goals per game and has so far shown that he is more likely to hit the scoreboard and personally I'd prefer to have someone who is going to kick more goals than someone who will have 0.2 more tackles per game. If Tim was having something like 3 or 4 more tackles per game that would be a different story, but so far that hasn't been the case. If we're going to persist with kicking it long and high into the forward 50 I think that also suits Lee better, as he has that extra 6cm, a longer reach and has a much bigger leap. This is more while Paddy isn't in the team though and Bruce needs more support, not so much if Paddy is in there and doing well and we want more far and wide running from our "3rd-tall".


And didn't Rhys Stanley play at CHF in that period?
Tom's first year was the year Rhys was being playing down back much of the time (looking at Rhys's stats for that year it looks like he was played forward for a few games in the middle of the year, but that was when Lee wasn't playing. Later in the year Rhys played in 5 of the 8 games Lee played, but only had two scoring shots in those 5 games and no inside 50's in the last 3 of them, which suggest he probably wasn't playing forward. The following year Lee was brought in for 3 games when Rhys was injured.
 

George

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Carlisle's 'about me' Twitter section just recently updated..


'#2 St.Kilda - Instagram: Jef Starbuck

I know it's not much but I sense he has warmed to the club with the Saints tag...maybe a sense of pride for him?? Lets hope
 

CursingFijian

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Well if that is all so positive why did the club give up on Lee as a forward. I will take a guess and say it was because he was unfit, slow and had no defensive skills. There is so much more to footy these days than just kicking goals and that is why a player like Plugger would unfortunately struggle. And didn't Rhys Stanley play at CHF in that period?
Might be a little unfair to say they have given up on him. In NAB1 when Paddy went down Lee was thrown forward to add some potency to the attack. So someone rates him as a forward.

Having said that Tom doesn't inspire me to believe he will make it as an AFL player, mainly because of his athletic profile.


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gringo2011

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Might be a little unfair to say they have given up on him. In NAB1 when Paddy went down Lee was thrown forward to add some potency to the attack. So someone rates him as a forward.

Having said that Tom doesn't inspire me to believe he will make it as an AFL player, mainly because of his athletic profile.


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When they moved him back we had just used a number one pick on Paddy, we had Spencer and Rhys at one point looking like they might go forward and were experimenting with a ruck playing forward. We identified a lack of a future tall defender with Josh Bruce looking a poor option and Delaney our only real kpb. Anyway he has had shoulders that popped for a long time and last year finally got a surgery that worked to hold them in by bone grafts. I still hold out some hope for him. He looked better than del at VFL level and he went well for one year.
 

aussierulesrules

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Aside from his previously poor endurance (may be better after this preseason, may not be) I don't see what the problem with Lee's athletic profile is. At his draft combine or testing he apparently tested at 2.93sec for the 20m sprint, which would be elite for someone his height (and apparently the exact same time Roo tested at prior to his draft) and even if he doesn't play that fast, I don't think he is "slow", as I've seen him described and he also tested elite for his leap and apparently held the Scotch College high jump record over in Perth as well. We've seen him used in the ruck at AFL level due to his leap, so he certainly ticks that box. If he really is 4-5kg stronger this season and is fitter as well it could make a really big difference to how he performs, especially if he gets another crack at AFL level.

In his first season he was out of his depth when he played those two games early, but then it was reported that in between those games and the 8 he played from round 15 he hit the gym and put on 4 or 5kg (which he evidently lost between then and this latest preseason, when it seems he's put them back on) and he was much better with that extra strength late that season.

I think he's got his work cut out for him though, as I feel as though he'll have to nail any chance he gets right from the get-go, because if he doesn't he'll probably be out of the team ASAP and have his papers stamped. Which I think would be a real shame, as those who can go at two goals a game and nail shots from outside the boundary on a regular basis like he's shown he can do don't grow on trees.
 
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