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When a bid comes and wipes all our picks out. When do we get to use another pick? I'm assuming at the end of the draft, we'll then have three or however many pcks we are using in a row?
 
hatescaptcha said:
When a bid comes and wipes all our picks out. When do we get to use another pick? I'm assuming at the end of the draft, we'll then have three or however many pcks we are using in a row?
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These are our picks. 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90

If a bid comes at 1 or 2 then the first five get wiped out. Maybe at 3 as well (I haven't checked the numbers yet).

So our first pick would come at 90 and then we get as many as we need to use after that. I doubt any other club would be left in the draft at that stage.

Those late picks present an ideal opportunity to re-draft some de-listed players if we want to do that. And to pick up a Cat B rookie like Raak if he's still there. Otherwise we're just picking over the scraps hoping for a long shot to come good or for a project player.

It gets interesting if we are expecting to pick up Ewan MacPherson and Cody Raak and then some club (let's say Essendon :rolleyes: ) decides to put in a bid for them in the third round. That's where we might end up in deficit, but that's unlikely IMO.
 
dogwatch said:
These are our picks. 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90

If a bid comes at 1 or 2 then the first five get wiped out. Maybe at 3 as well (I haven't checked the numbers yet).

So our first pick would come at 90 and then we get as many as we need to use after that. I doubt any other club would be left in the draft at that stage.

Those late picks present an ideal opportunity to re-draft some de-listed players if we want to do that. And to pick up a Cat B rookie like Raak if he's still there. Otherwise we're just picking over the scraps hoping for a long shot to come good or for a project player.

It gets interesting if we are expecting to pick up Ewan MacPherson and Cody Raak and then some club (let's say Essendon :rolleyes: ) decides to put in a bid for them in the third round. That's where we might end up in deficit, but that's unlikely IMO.
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Makes sense - Thanks for clearing that up.

I believe a poster mention we were interesting in Malachy Carruthers (sturt) and we were prepared to go earlier than expected on him so we may find ourselves looking in enter back into the draft somehow. (We only have a 2021 first and fourth / fifth round pick now so seems unluckly). Looks like a nice prospect, we may need to see if he makes it through otherwise.
 

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hatescaptcha said:
Makes sense - Thanks for clearing that up.

I believe a poster mention we were interesting in Malachy Carruthers (sturt) and we were prepared to go earlier than expected on him so we may find ourselves looking in enter back into the draft somehow. (We only have a 2021 first and fourth / fifth round pick now so seems unluckly). Looks like a nice prospect, we may need to see if he makes it through otherwise.
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CarnTheScray said:
Our points add up to 2319. 20% discount on NGA bid means we need 2400...

How do we get those extra points??
Click to expand...

I just checked out the numbers. If our picks don't change between now and the draft (that's a big if!) then here's how it plays out:

1605261818870.png

The key columns are the first column (where does the Jamarra bid come in?) and the one in blue (what picks we'll be left with). Everything in between is just calculations, including what residual pick we are allocated if we use up only some of the points from the last of our required picks ("New Pick").

It also factors in a possible bid for either MacPherson or Raak (but not both). That's in the final "Can Match" column where it shows the earliest bid for one of those players we'd be able to match with our remaining points. That's assuming we want to match of course.

I'm assuming the rules haven't changed since the system was introduced about 5 years ago.
And if anybody else has a good understanding of the rules and would like to double-check my calculations, that'd be appreciated.

Obviously a bid at pick 1 would be very unfavourable as we'd have to dip into next year's first to find the extra 81 points. That could play out like this: Say we finished 4th in 2021, we'd drop from pick 15 to pick 20 :( .

However anything other than a bid at pick 1 should mean we are covered with no impact on 2021. A bid at pick 2 probably even covers us for an early third round bid on MacPherson.

I haven't done the exercise any further than pick 6 because Dodo has picks 6, 7 and 8 and I can't see him doing us any favours ...
 
dogwatch said:
I just checked out the numbers. If our picks don't change between now and the draft (that's a big if!) then here's how it plays out:

View attachment 1011218

The key columns are the first column (where does the Jamarra bid come in?) and the one in blue (what picks we'll be left with). Everything in between is just calculations, including what residual pick we are allocated if we use up only some of the points from the last of our required picks ("New Pick").

It also factors in a possible bid for either MacPherson or Raak (but not both). That's in the final "Can Match" column where it shows the earliest bid for one of those players we'd be able to match with our remaining points. That's assuming we want to match of course.

I'm assuming the rules haven't changed since the system was introduced about 5 years ago.
And if anybody else has a good understanding of the rules and would like to double-check my calculations, that'd be appreciated.

Obviously a bid at pick 1 would be very unfavourable as we'd have to dip into next year's first to find the extra 81 points. That could play out like this: Say we finished 4th in 2021, we'd drop from pick 15 to pick 20 :( .

However anything other than a bid at pick 1 should mean we are covered with no impact on 2021. A bid at pick 2 probably even covers us for an early third round bid on MacPherson.

I haven't done the exercise any further than pick 6 because Dodo has picks 6, 7 and 8 and I can't see him doing us any favours ...
Click to expand...

This is awesome content - Thanks for putting this together.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
dogwatch said:
I just checked out the numbers. If our picks don't change between now and the draft (that's a big if!) then here's how it plays out:

View attachment 1011218

The key columns are the first column (where does the Jamarra bid come in?) and the one in blue (what picks we'll be left with). Everything in between is just calculations, including what residual pick we are allocated if we use up only some of the points from the last of our required picks ("New Pick").

It also factors in a possible bid for either MacPherson or Raak (but not both). That's in the final "Can Match" column where it shows the earliest bid for one of those players we'd be able to match with our remaining points. That's assuming we want to match of course.

I'm assuming the rules haven't changed since the system was introduced about 5 years ago.
And if anybody else has a good understanding of the rules and would like to double-check my calculations, that'd be appreciated.

Obviously a bid at pick 1 would be very unfavourable as we'd have to dip into next year's first to find the extra 81 points. That could play out like this: Say we finished 4th in 2021, we'd drop from pick 15 to pick 20 :( .

However anything other than a bid at pick 1 should mean we are covered with no impact on 2021. A bid at pick 2 probably even covers us for an early third round bid on MacPherson.

I haven't done the exercise any further than pick 6 because Dodo has picks 6, 7 and 8 and I can't see him doing us any favours ...
Click to expand...
Really outstanding work here, extremely useful.

Power gaining those extra 600 odd points or whatever it was when he was bending poor old Ned Guy over in the Treloar deal has set us up beautifully really.
 
That’s great dogwatch! Our draft position isn’t even that bad with a bid at pick 2 or 3 which is interesting. Still just as good as Eagles even though we get one of the best kids and only came in with pick 14 of any real value 😂

I wonder if Power is expecting bids on Raak & McPherson and knows we can’t match it so that’s why we were happy to trade out of 2nd and 3rd round next year? Any deficit for those two will come off picks later than round 3 next year.
 
Yojimbo said:
Based on my doomsday scenario on the trade and list management thread, Essendon have the pick one and he drops the accreditation. However this is a doomsday scenario based on Ugle-Hagan being the real target all along, the numbers add up though only 1 point different.
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This would rely on the Crows trading out their first ever pick 1.
 

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Yojimbo said:
Yes it would, but 7, 8, and 9 is handy for a rebuilding side, maybe better than 1 and 9.
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I get that but it’s pick 1. I just can’t see them trading it. They need a good news story and to sell hope to their members as much as anyone (Pies excluded). Outside the top 5 picks the draft this year is a lottery.
 
The other thing that might affect the points is that clubs now only have to use one pick in the draft (I believe). Teams like the Gold Coast, Brisbane, Melbourne, Hawthorn, GWS and Melbourne might not use the picks in front of 54 so it could actually move up the order before the draft begins.

The club will probably know how many live picks each club is taking in so will be able to prepare. If the bid does come at one we just have to use our future 4th to upgrade one of our picks.
 
I’ve been having a bit of a think about how we can maximise our current draft picks, and have come up with a solution that allows us to take Marra and also end up with a 2nd rounder (which we could then possibly trade back into 2021 if we wanted).

We currently have picks - 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90.

Our first move is to trade with North pre-draft swapping our picks 26(729pts) and 42(395pts) for 30 (629pts) and 39(446pts). This is a small point loss for us but guarantees no bid for Marra at 2.

We now hold picks 30, 33, 39, 41, 54, 90.

Our second trade is with Adelaide and is a live trade at the start of the draft after pick 1 so that we don’t need to carry an extra list spot into the draft.

We swap our pick 30(629pts) for picks 40(429pts) and 56(194pts). The point difference is minimal but again we insure no bid on Marra at pick 1.

We now hold picks 33, 39, 40, 41, 54, 56, 90.

Our third trade is with Sydney but comes after we match a bid on Marra at 4 (or later).

With a bid at 4 we will need to match with 1627 points. This means that our first 3 picks disappear and our 4th pick is bumped back to 54. This leaves us with picks 54(220pts), 55(207pts), 57(182pts) however with 4 picks disappearing with the bid and 1 being created they all shuffle forward 3 places to 51(259pts), 52(246pts) and 54(220pts) a total of 725 points.

We then trade these 3 picks to Sydney (who need points to match a bid on Campbell) for pick 34 which is now 33. This gives Sydney a 162 point increase and gets us back into the second round of the draft with pick 33.

Obviously this is all contingent with picks remaining where they currently are and with all other clubs being interested in what we are offering (particularly with Adelaide also having an academy player to match). We would also have to be confident of not needing picks for Macpherson or Raak. It is an extremely unlikely scenario, but I was just interested in looking at what options we might have with our current draft hand in what is a very complicated system.
 
TBOW said:
I’ve been having a bit of a think about how we can maximise our current draft picks, and have come up with a solution that allows us to take Marra and also end up with a 2nd rounder (which we could then possibly trade back into 2021 if we wanted).

We currently have picks - 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90.

Our first move is to trade with North pre-draft swapping our picks 26(729pts) and 42(395pts) for 30 (629pts) and 39(446pts). This is a small point loss for us but guarantees no bid for Marra at 2.

We now hold picks 30, 33, 39, 41, 54, 90.

Our second trade is with Adelaide and is a live trade at the start of the draft after pick 1 so that we don’t need to carry an extra list spot into the draft.

We swap our pick 30(629pts) for picks 40(429pts) and 56(194pts). The point difference is minimal but again we insure no bid on Marra at pick 1.

We now hold picks 33, 39, 40, 41, 54, 56, 90.

Our third trade is with Sydney but comes after we match a bid on Marra at 4 (or later).

With a bid at 4 we will need to match with 1627 points. This means that our first 3 picks disappear and our 4th pick is bumped back to 54. This leaves us with picks 54(220pts), 55(207pts), 57(182pts) however with 4 picks disappearing with the bid and 1 being created they all shuffle forward 3 places to 51(259pts), 52(246pts) and 54(220pts) a total of 725 points.

We then trade these 3 picks to Sydney (who need points to match a bid on Campbell) for pick 34 which is now 33. This gives Sydney a 162 point increase and gets us back into the second round of the draft with pick 33.

Obviously this is all contingent with picks remaining where they currently are and with all other clubs being interested in what we are offering (particularly with Adelaide also having an academy player to match). We would also have to be confident of not needing picks for Macpherson or Raak. It is an extremely unlikely scenario, but I was just interested in looking at what options we might have with our current draft hand in what is a very complicated system.
Click to expand...

That is some pretty nifty work.
 
TBOW said:
I’ve been having a bit of a think about how we can maximise our current draft picks, and have come up with a solution that allows us to take Marra and also end up with a 2nd rounder (which we could then possibly trade back into 2021 if we wanted).

We currently have picks - 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90.

Our first move is to trade with North pre-draft swapping our picks 26(729pts) and 42(395pts) for 30 (629pts) and 39(446pts). This is a small point loss for us but guarantees no bid for Marra at 2.

We now hold picks 30, 33, 39, 41, 54, 90.

Our second trade is with Adelaide and is a live trade at the start of the draft after pick 1 so that we don’t need to carry an extra list spot into the draft.

We swap our pick 30(629pts) for picks 40(429pts) and 56(194pts). The point difference is minimal but again we insure no bid on Marra at pick 1.

We now hold picks 33, 39, 40, 41, 54, 56, 90.

Our third trade is with Sydney but comes after we match a bid on Marra at 4 (or later).

With a bid at 4 we will need to match with 1627 points. This means that our first 3 picks disappear and our 4th pick is bumped back to 54. This leaves us with picks 54(220pts), 55(207pts), 57(182pts) however with 4 picks disappearing with the bid and 1 being created they all shuffle forward 3 places to 51(259pts), 52(246pts) and 54(220pts) a total of 725 points.

We then trade these 3 picks to Sydney (who need points to match a bid on Campbell) for pick 34 which is now 33. This gives Sydney a 162 point increase and gets us back into the second round of the draft with pick 33.

Obviously this is all contingent with picks remaining where they currently are and with all other clubs being interested in what we are offering (particularly with Adelaide also having an academy player to match). We would also have to be confident of not needing picks for Macpherson or Raak. It is an extremely unlikely scenario, but I was just interested in looking at what options we might have with our current draft hand in what is a very complicated system.
Click to expand...
I love your work, this is extremely well thought out. The only thing I would say is that if we want to get into live trading, the chance of getting it wrong is high with a complicated scenario like above, especially with time pressure on draft night.

We live traded last year to move up the order to ensure we got Riley Garcia. This was a very simple pick swap with this year and much less likely to get wrong. Considering Garcia had an ACL we were taking a risk.

Although Sam Power is a gem, we can trust him to get it right if we go down this path.
 
Last edited:
TBOW said:
I’ve been having a bit of a think about how we can maximise our current draft picks, and have come up with a solution that allows us to take Marra and also end up with a 2nd rounder (which we could then possibly trade back into 2021 if we wanted).

We currently have picks - 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90.

Our first move is to trade with North pre-draft swapping our picks 26(729pts) and 42(395pts) for 30 (629pts) and 39(446pts). This is a small point loss for us but guarantees no bid for Marra at 2.

We now hold picks 30, 33, 39, 41, 54, 90.

Our second trade is with Adelaide and is a live trade at the start of the draft after pick 1 so that we don’t need to carry an extra list spot into the draft.

We swap our pick 30(629pts) for picks 40(429pts) and 56(194pts). The point difference is minimal but again we insure no bid on Marra at pick 1.

We now hold picks 33, 39, 40, 41, 54, 56, 90.

Our third trade is with Sydney but comes after we match a bid on Marra at 4 (or later).

With a bid at 4 we will need to match with 1627 points. This means that our first 3 picks disappear and our 4th pick is bumped back to 54. This leaves us with picks 54(220pts), 55(207pts), 57(182pts) however with 4 picks disappearing with the bid and 1 being created they all shuffle forward 3 places to 51(259pts), 52(246pts) and 54(220pts) a total of 725 points.

We then trade these 3 picks to Sydney (who need points to match a bid on Campbell) for pick 34 which is now 33. This gives Sydney a 162 point increase and gets us back into the second round of the draft with pick 33.

Obviously this is all contingent with picks remaining where they currently are and with all other clubs being interested in what we are offering (particularly with Adelaide also having an academy player to match). We would also have to be confident of not needing picks for Macpherson or Raak. It is an extremely unlikely scenario, but I was just interested in looking at what options we might have with our current draft hand in what is a very complicated system.
Click to expand...
1605434069447.gif
 
Respect

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Islanda22 said:
Officially listed as 195cm and 90kg


Good size
Click to expand...

Big size for an 18yo kid. Only 5kg lighter than Kieran Collins when he was drafted, and we all thought he was a monster...
 
Hoges64 said:
Big size for an 18yo kid. Only 5kg lighter than Kieran Collins when he was drafted, and we all thought he was a monster...
Click to expand...
Not just that but they say Logan is AFL ready now and he weighs a bit less also.
 
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