Racing January Daily Punt - It's Magic (Millions) You Know

Slippers

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Jumped on Wentworth at mornington in the next doesnt look like the races will continue thou... im near mornington and theres alot of lightning around now
 

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Viva la Mattner

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Nature Strip and Alizee both ridiculous unders
All over Written By and Trapeze Artist

Don’t mind Rainer either, too short 1st up for Ringerdingding

Rosehill in race 7 Girl Tuesday and in the last Maximus are also ones I like from an early look
 
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Speaking of ludicrous prices - how the hell is Alizee - going for an All Star Mile slot odds on to beat Trapeze Artist in the Expressway!

If TA can't win this he should be shipped off to stud ASAP!
Agree the price difference is too big, but I’d have Alizee favourite still. She’s a smart horse and there’s no way Trapeze Artist is wound up. Ryan seems to be targeting a grand final with him each prep now and isn’t particularly fussed if he picks up wins along the way. TA also loves the pace on which he won’t get here.

It’s a stay out race for me, but Hartnell is the runner that interests me. Cummings trying something different and I think it’ll suit him, plus I think his better runs have been fresh for a while now.
 

iluvparis

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Agree the price difference is too big, but I’d have Alizee favourite still. She’s a smart horse and there’s no way Trapeze Artist is wound up. Ryan seems to be targeting a grand final with him each prep now and isn’t particularly fussed if he picks up wins along the way. TA also loves the pace on which he won’t get here.

It’s a stay out race for me, but Hartnell is the runner that interests me. Cummings trying something different and I think it’ll suit him, plus I think his better runs have been fresh for a while now.
I give Hartnell zero over 1200.

Alizee also likes the pace on so if the pace of the race doesn't suit TA it doesn't suit her.

The Grand Final argument is complete rubbish. TA exploded in the TJ last year but was still more than good enough to win this handily first up. He is just an up and down horse like Humi. The fact is TA's best form romps this in and Alizee is odds on for beating Husson Eagle last start FFS. And if we are going Grand Final theory isn't Alizee headed to the All Star Mile? Wouldn't expect her to be super fresh second up and staying at 1200 if so. The prices are absolutely the wrong way around.
 

TBellicious

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The race depends on whether Trapeze Artist goes forward or back from gate 6. If he goes forward you’d expect there to be some pace in the race , initiated by him , if he goes back then Le Romain should get an easy time in front and win
 
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I give Hartnell zero over 1200.

Alizee also likes the pace on so if the pace of the race doesn't suit TA it doesn't suit her.

The Grand Final argument is complete rubbish. TA exploded in the TJ last year but was still more than good enough to win this handily first up. He is just an up and down horse like Humi. The fact is TA's best form romps this in and Alizee is odds on for beating Husson Eagle last start FFS. And if we are going Grand Final theory isn't Alizee headed to the All Star Mile? Wouldn't expect her to be super fresh second up and staying at 1200 if so. The prices are absolutely the wrong way around.
I’m not touching Alizee for the reasons you mentioned, but knowing TA’s connections and having seen him first up before in the yard he won’t be anywhere near his best Saturday (which admittedly he doesn’t have to be here). He absolutely is a grand final horse though. He disappointed twice in the spring before a lack of tempo and heavy track stopped him from smashing them in the Everest. The season before sure he won this first up but it didn’t rate massively and and he was much better in the TJ. Prior to that they targeted the Golden Rose a long way out. He put in a poor run in the Stan Fox before exploding in the Golden Rose. Some involved with the horse/stable backed him to collect well in excess of $1 million that day.

He definitely can win this and he might just sit on the speed and win by 3 hard held, but there’s a reason he’s not favourite when he absolutely would be if this was his target race.

Depending on what Dothraki does Hartnell will be right on the speed and if they do let them get away with some cheap sectionals they will need some impressive closing splits to go past him. Again to short at the price but wouldn’t be stunned if he saluted.
 

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54Dogs

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I give Hartnell zero over 1200.

Alizee also likes the pace on so if the pace of the race doesn't suit TA it doesn't suit her.

The Grand Final argument is complete rubbish. TA exploded in the TJ last year but was still more than good enough to win this handily first up. He is just an up and down horse like Humi. The fact is TA's best form romps this in and Alizee is odds on for beating Husson Eagle last start FFS. And if we are going Grand Final theory isn't Alizee headed to the All Star Mile? Wouldn't expect her to be super fresh second up and staying at 1200 if so. The prices are absolutely the wrong way around.
Purely from a racing perspective it's a shame he's so valuable as a stallion, reckon with the ultimate gear change he has the talent to be an incredible sprinter. Just can't keep his mind on the job
 

iluvparis

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I’m not touching Alizee for the reasons you mentioned, but knowing TA’s connections and having seen him first up before in the yard he won’t be anywhere near his best Saturday (which admittedly he doesn’t have to be here). He absolutely is a grand final horse though. He disappointed twice in the spring before a lack of tempo and heavy track stopped him from smashing them in the Everest. The season before sure he won this first up but it didn’t rate massively and and he was much better in the TJ. Prior to that they targeted the Golden Rose a long way out. He put in a poor run in the Stan Fox before exploding in the Golden Rose. Some involved with the horse/stable backed him to collect well in excess of $1 million that day.

He definitely can win this and he might just sit on the speed and win by 3 hard held, but there’s a reason he’s not favourite when he absolutely would be if this was his target race.

Depending on what Dothraki does Hartnell will be right on the speed and if they do let them get away with some cheap sectionals they will need some impressive closing splits to go past him. Again to short at the price but wouldn’t be stunned if he saluted.
Fair enough - I give this grand final theory zero weighting and reckon it is complete hocus pocus guess work. It's an excuse put up for horses that are inconsistent.

As I said - he won this last year easily - and if the TJ was his 'grand final' why did they potentially gut him by running in the Randwick Guineas ahead of them. Or was that the grand final then they found out he couldn't stay and dropped him back to 1200? Was beaten fair and square and easily held by Redzel in last year's 'grand final' - the track is a classic #noexcuses cop out.

I assume the Golden Slipper was his grand final when he was beaten out of sight.

So he is basically only 2 from 4 at best if we think the TJ was his GF (which makes the Guineas run a bit strange). I think they'd be better served winning any race they can. His stallion value takes another beating if he can't beat this mob on Saturday.

Had this discussion pre Everest when someone locked in Menari (may have been you) but I don't rate the trainer and reckon he has NFI what he is doing half the time. Laughable to think he can peak a horse for a target race.
 
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Fair enough - I give this grand final theory zero weighting and reckon it is complete hocus pocus guess work. It's an excuse put up for horses that are inconsistent.

As I said - he won this last year easily - and if the TJ was his 'grand final' why did they potentially gut him by running in the Randwick Guineas ahead of them. Or was that the grand final then they found out he couldn't stay and dropped him back to 1200? Was beaten fair and square and easily held by Redzel in last year's 'grand final' - the track is a classic #noexcuses cop out.

I assume the Golden Slipper was his grand final when he was beaten out of sight.

So he is basically only 2 from 4 at best if we think the TJ was his GF (which makes the Guineas run a bit strange). I think they'd be better served winning any race they can. His stallion value takes another beating if he can't beat this mob on Saturday.

Had this discussion pre Everest when someone locked in Menari (may have been you) but I don't rate the trainer and reckon he has NFI what he is doing half the time. Laughable to think he can peak a horse for a target race.
TA’s owner owns a bunch of horses and just wants to race him since he is a genuinely good horse (for now anyway). He could’ve taken the $40+ million offered previously and would’ve been unlikely to find one better than TA if he spent the whole lot. Stallion value isn’t his concern.

We did talk about G. Ryan, Menari and the Everest. I didn’t think Menari would win the race, I just didn’t think it was a terrible decision to give him a slot (I was definitely wrong). G Ryan can train a freshish horse ok was my point regarding him. I won’t argue against him being an ordinary trainer overall and even worse person.

Those previous runs like the Coolmoore were an example of his poor training. Also you’re being harsh including the golden slipper as a fail, it’s form becomes irrelevant as they progress. He developed a lot between that 2yo and 3yo season.

He himself might not be a ‘grand final’ horse but his connections and current preparations make him one as a betting proposition. He’s proven he’s capable of top group 1 performances alongside Redzel..what price would Redzel be if it was in this race? I’d think a pretty strong favourite. The current price on Saturday is a result of its connections and the way they prepare this horse.
 

FallingLiefs

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We did talk about G. Ryan, Menari and the Everest. I didn’t think Menari would win the race, I just didn’t think it was a terrible decision to give him a slot (I was definitely wrong).
why are you wrong now? i don't see why your opinion would change from pre-race to now given Menari hasn't started since. but anyhow TA pulled out a ripper to win a TJ with a prep to suit a massive spike then IMO was back to his standard most other weeks including defaulting the all aged. didn't come on as expected after the TJ at all IMO. up to that point you could be forgiven to think he could start stringing big runs consistently instead he goes a mini Humidor with somewhat unpredictability and could never take less than $3 or shouldn't really be more than $10's in any race.
 

FallingLiefs

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my 3 second look at the race would be Alizee is last weeks whispering brook in a smaller field at a smaller price. comes race fit with lesser peaks than the rest of these, early in the season that counts for a bit.
 
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why are you wrong now? i don't see why your opinion would change from pre-race to now given Menari hasn't started since. but anyhow TA pulled out a ripper to win a TJ with a prep to suit a massive spike then IMO was back to his standard most other weeks including defaulting the all aged. didn't come on as expected after the TJ at all IMO. up to that point you could be forgiven to think he could start stringing big runs consistently instead he goes a mini Humidor with somewhat unpredictability and could never take less than $3 or shouldn't really be more than $10's in any race.
My view didn’t change due to the horse, more so that slot holders only really need to lock in a horse early if it’s an established star, otherwise they can afford to wait. The winner and runner up were locked in early and were obvious picks, but 3rd and 4th were in form horses who were available right up until virtually race day. In hindsight Menari wasn’t a secure enough pick to warrant locking away a slot that early.
 

LFC2010

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Anyone else think $4 for Written By looks like good money?

Would be happy using it in multi's for the day at that price.
 

iluvparis

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My view didn’t change due to the horse, more so that slot holders only really need to lock in a horse early if it’s an established star, otherwise they can afford to wait. The winner and runner up were locked in early and were obvious picks, but 3rd and 4th were in form horses who were available right up until virtually race day. In hindsight Menari wasn’t a secure enough pick to warrant locking away a slot that early.
How was it in form? It hadn't even raced as an older horse!?!?!
 

iluvparis

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Anyone else think $4 for Written By looks like good money?

Would be happy using it in multi's for the day at that price.
You'd think so given NS is absolute poison but I'm always loathe to back 3yo's in open company.

The very definition of a no bet race if ever there was one.
 
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How was it in form? It hadn't even raced as an older horse!?!?!
Was referring to Osborne Bulls and Graff as in form (forgot Graff finished 5th instead of 4th). My point is in hindsight their runs showed that unless you’re getting a Redzel, TA or Santa Anna Lane type locked away early, I wouldn’t be touching unproven at that level horses like Menari until they showed something that preparation.
 

iluvparis

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Was referring to Osborne Bulls and Graff as in form (forgot Graff finished 5th instead of 4th). My point is in hindsight their runs showed that unless you’re getting a Redzel, TA or Santa Anna Lane type locked away early, I wouldn’t be touching unproven at that level horses like Menari until they showed something that preparation.
Apologies - thought you meant the 3rd and 4th horses locked in.

But that view wasn't hindsight - it was the completely sane view that was stated by multiple posters on here when moron slot holders went off and locked in a whole bunch of B grade horses well ahead of time.
 
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