January - Daily Punt

[Hawks2009]

He is talking about it in the other sense...you shouldn't back something just because it is good value. You back whatever you think will win.

Therefore if you think Typhoon Tracey will win it shouldn't matter weather its paying $3 or $1.80.

Your looking at it from the wrong point of view....Nobody ever picks every winner. People who go for "value" just because something is short will loose in the long run 99/100.

If you like the favourite but it's too short for you, then you shouldn't have a bet. You shouldn't just back something because its got bigger odds.

If your just mucking around having a punt, all good. But if your punting every weekend you will end up a long way down if you just go for value.

If you see something as a great each way chance then go for it, but don't back something just because it is "value".

By the way on Typhoon Tracey at $2.40 tonight...think it should be too slick

Hit the nail on the head there ECHUCABOY, thats exactly what im trying to say.

My question to you is this, SYT was 1.30 in the cox plate, where the rest of the field was 10+, now people say wow you backed a 1.30 winner. So I say, would you rather back a $1.30 winner, or a $50 loser. I was happy SYT paid $1.30 as I made a profit

Lets say Typhoon Tracy wins tonight and pays 1.50, would you rather have back the 1.50 winner or Ortensia running 2nd at "your" 20-1 quote,

On the other hand, if, in your opinion, you honestly cant split the winner between Typhoon Tracy and Ortensia, thats when you take the value

 

[The_Doctor]

Well its all well and good with the dead certainties like SYT but Typhoon Tracey is not that, she is first up over 1200m and is not a certainty. Where i do think she is probably slightly more likely to win than Ortensia the difference is not that great so if i can get good odds about Ortensia i will take that over the odds on of Typhoon Tracey. You have to sum up the risk/reward of it

 

[Dingster]

I'm hoping Nolen gets off to a good start with Master Harry in the first. Looks like Moody picked a nice race to resume after racing against better company.

 

[KardiniaPark]

MV RACE 2 NO 9 SHIVOO.

Huge odds, im surprised shes not favourite. EW all day.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

MV RACE 2 NO 9 SHIVOO.

Huge odds, im surprised shes not favourite. EW all day.

Yep jumped on earlier in the day! $20W

 

[KardiniaPark]

MV RACE 2 NO 9 SHIVOO.

Huge odds, im surprised shes not favourite. EW all day.

Dammit, just found one better. $2 place.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Canterbury R2 Pass The Parcel EW @$6

 

[KardiniaPark]

Also taken a bit of a saver wit hthe fav into star of jeune @ $11.28

 

[KardiniaPark]

Wow they both got soooo far back thought the parcel would have been a lot closer, they were gone at the bend.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Tried to limit myself to 5 races at Moonee tonight but chucking a small amount on Costalots @ 21 fixed in race 3.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Looks like on pacers at MV?

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Starmon Was waiting for it to wind up

Apennine finally!

 

[The_Doctor]

Most days at the valley it is

 

[_SYT_]

Typhoon Tracy should get the perfect run on a soft pace and really should just be able to scoot around the course and never look in danger. On the flipside, she's more than short enough for a mare first up thumbsu: to those who got her at $2.20+), she's getting older now, coming off a prep trained for longer and hasn't raced over 1200m in almost two years... but that's clutching at straws and I guess Moody wouldn't send her here fresh if he didn't think she was sharp enough to get the easy kill! Assuming Undeniably leads/sits second, he has been spruiked long enough and perhaps is starting to put it together this prep to suggest he can finish in the placings.

Not sure what to make of Whitefrairs. I don't think his action is suited to a tight MV, but he's come of age and racing in great heart. I'm wary of horses first run back in the country and not sure where Ortensia will lob in the running...I don't think they'll be going as slow as some expect and she's run well this t/d before, but MV night meeting = on-pacers and riding her in these conditions at this track and upside down would be a bold move if connections want to see her at her best.. at least she's proven in this class which is more than most.

An old BF Punting Board fave Vigor gets the blinkers for this first up run. he can pull out a good run when fresh and at big odds I'd throw him into multiples for a bit of value.

Other than that main race, it's a rather uninspiring night at MV imo.

The only one I bothered to pick out was Kid Capone in R7. He has the draw and toe to go close... but is returning from an injury enforced layoff and you never know for sure how they'll return - trainer has liked him for a while though and he has the most potential of these. Probably starts fave, but at about 4-1 worth a nibble.

As for interstate - I like Dual Chambers in S.C R4 and I'll give one last chance for SYD R5 Tom's Choice.

Dual Chambers nosed out for the win by a 100/1 shot GRR!! Tom's Choice squeezed at the start, never a chance, hit the line nicely - but no collects

 

[_SYT_]

Super run Whitefriars, sat in the run where I thought Typhoonn Tracy would (but she just couldn't keep up with them). Awesome ride by Jimmy. Undeniably handled the rise i class well.

Wouldn't be knocking Typhoon Tracy too much. She just couldn't keep up with the leaders and the race was dominated from there as they scooted around the Valley. Still the one to beat imo in the Orr...

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Whitefriars worries me though

Takes a saver, thank jebus for that.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Shocking night! Zizz needs to come to my rescue ad perk me back up

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I need Zizz for the quaddie. Go Zizz.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Golly.

Got some work to do at Sandown & Morphetville tomorrow

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Morphetville

r1 TOBOUGGIE WOOGIE
r2 MYCOLADA (any other opposition would've gone Selecta Minoria, but rate this horse highly - watch Selecta Minoria shit it in now)
r3 CORNELIA MARIE
r4 SOCIAL GAZE
r5 IRISH CHEER
r6 BERGSTROM (fun fact: back from 6 week break, WON 6 months ago @ 1250m after a 6 week break)
r7 PARK RANGER
r8 HOMICIDE HANK

best bet MYCOLADA

Sandown

r3 UNDER THE EIFFEL
r6 HANKS
r7 SUMMARISE
r8 ARIARNI

Randwick

r6 RED LORD

 

[Rough_Edges]

Despite the drift I still really like Screen in the next at Randwick.

Should just get a beautiful run off the leaders in a race that seems to have plenty of speed.

Took the $3 about it, money just starting to come for it now.

 

[Rough_Edges]

Despite the drift I still really like Screen in the next at Randwick.

Should just get a beautiful run off the leaders in a race that seems to have plenty of speed.

Took the $3 about it, money just starting to come for it now.

Nice win that!

Came from stone motherless and still put pay to them.

 

[_SYT_]

Sandown quaddie: 1,4,8 - 2,4 - 4,6,7 - 1,3,7,9.

Gone for a bit of value here, looks tough. I like Mr Riggs to improve at odds. Ariani goes close in the last. Spacecraft deserves favouritism in R6, but I think he is vulnerable here first up with the big weight as favourite - trouble is, I'm finding it bloody hard to pick out one to beat him! They are all pretty exposed and none have his same class/potential to deliver. Gonna risk, no surprise to see him shit on them haha.

Only other bet for the day is Ascot R6 Pearler. Nice odds, ready to fire, took a step up last campaign, worth a try.

 

[Dingster]

At The Heads has the form against the better chances in this. Short and I got burnt last night by Moody/Nolen, but I'm backing up.

 

[Dingster]

At The Heads has the form against the better chances in this. Short and I got burnt last night by Moody/Nolen, but I'm backing up.

Didn't run the trip. Mid Summer Music in the last, Moody/Nolen will eventually win a race!