No offence but those probabilities are a bit of an ass pull. No-one knows how this draft will effectively play out. You also neglect to mention that North have actually managed to move up the draft, pick 54 has become pick 38, meaning that, well, according to your probabilities, they've doubled their chances of getting a good player.
Whether it's 54 or 38 is irrelevant for Hawthorn because we will use it to upgrade a rookie.