Speculation Jed Walter

[HBFlanker]

Gold Coast very confident King stays now is my mail. Pies have made a huge offer but looking like he will stay.

 

[Eric Shin]

Gold Coast very confident King stays now is my mail. Pies have made a huge offer but looking like he will stay.

Good on him

 

[RanaNaved]

I

Still works, point was Waterman and Jed don’t have crowd the f50

I know, I'm just updating folks

 

[Makeshift Park]

Notwithstanding there's nearly an entire season of football ahead where his value could inflate, but...

At this point, since he's OOC, do we reckon pick 8-12 or thereabouts would get it done for GC?

 

[stallon]

Notwithstanding there's nearly an entire season of football ahead where his value could inflate, but...

At this point, since he's OOC, do we reckon pick 8-12 or thereabouts would get it done for GC?

depends how many games he plays this year
If JUH and King are favoured and Walter isnt in the best 23 then they cant really demand a pick 8-12, could realistically be an early 2nd rounder if Walter really wants out

 

[bzparkes]

Gold Coast very confident King stays now is my mail. Pies have made a huge offer but looking like he will stay.

Hope he does. Done the hard yards when they were shit, might as well cash in on a few flags.

Plenty of time later to go and play for a 'big' club.

 

[bzparkes]

depends how many games he plays this year
If JUH and King are favoured and Walter isnt in the best 23 then they cant really demand a pick 8-12, could realistically be an early 2nd rounder if Walter really wants out

I'd say that more depends on where we finish, i.e. last.

 

[Makeshift Park]

depends how many games he plays this year
If JUH and King are favoured and Walter isnt in the best 23 then they cant really demand a pick 8-12, could realistically be an early 2nd rounder if Walter really wants out

The precedents of depreciation here for "high pick that gets traded a couple years later" are interesting.

Bruhn had about 30 games in his first two seasons at GWS, but in around 10 of those he was either the sub or subbed off.
He was drafted at 12 and traded two years later for 18. I assume from his draft night video his plan was to return to Victoria as soon as possible, which means GWS are possibly lucky they got as much as they did.

Scrimshaw was drafted at pick 7, and was traded for SFA after four games for GC over 2 years. Very extreme example.

Going back a bit further, Schache went at pick 2, played 27 games for Brisbane then got traded for pick 25 and 40.

I think in all three of these cases there was various degrees of homesickness or "unsettled player" vibes that contributed to the circumstances of their departure.

By contrast, Walter has played 30 across his first two seasons at GC, including 4 where he was subbed off. That's already a serious investment of gametime in a key forward as young as he is.

Since he's a Qld local boy, there's no homesickness angle to play in negotiations. Its purely about opportunity and money. Also, as a KPF, you'd expect Walter's development time to be longer than your Bruhns and your Scrimshaws, which I expect would contribute to his trade value.

The other complication is that high draft picks mean less to Gold Coast than they do for everyone else.

You're right that if he literally plays only a couple games this year GC will have to accept way unders. I reckon if he plays around 10 we're still talking a late first rounder. If he finds a way to replace say Farrar, it'll be more.

 

[stallon]

The precedents of depreciation here for "high pick that gets traded a couple years later" are interesting.

Bruhn had about 30 games in his first two seasons at GWS, but in around 10 of those he was either the sub or subbed off.
He was drafted at 12 and traded two years later for 18. I assume from his draft night video his plan was to return to Victoria as soon as possible, which means GWS are possibly lucky they got as much as they did.

Scrimshaw was drafted at pick 7, and was traded for SFA after four games for GC over 2 years. Very extreme example.

Going back a bit further, Schache went at pick 2, played 27 games for Brisbane then got traded for pick 25 and 40.

I think in all three of these cases there was various degrees of homesickness or "unsettled player" vibes that contributed to the circumstances of their departure.

By contrast, Walter has played 30 across his first two seasons at GC, including 4 where he was subbed off. That's already a serious investment of gametime in a key forward as young as he is.

Since he's a Qld local boy, there's no homesickness angle to play in negotiations. Its purely about opportunity and money. Also, as a KPF, you'd expect Walter's development time to be longer than your Bruhns and your Scrimshaws, which I expect would contribute to his trade value.

The other complication is that high draft picks mean less to Gold Coast than they do for everyone else.

You're right that if he literally plays only a couple games this year GC will have to accept way unders. I reckon if he plays around 10 we're still talking a late first rounder.

The difference is Walter is competing with 2 of the best KPFs in the comp for games, with Read as the ruck/fwd third tall.
All of those guys are top 10 picks, so the natural talent advantage Walter might have isnt there

Theyre all relatively young too, like who is he pushing out of that side while GCS are pushing for flags over the next 5 years?
Does King get dropped?
JUH?(once he gets into the side, id argue hes more talented than Walter and has more proven form anyway)
Read? if you drop Read then who is the second ruck for GCS? its not going to be any of King JUH or Walter

10 games isnt a given for Walter if JUH gets into the side first

As you say picks for GCS mean little

 

[RanaNaved]

If you didn't know what draft pick he was taken with and just watched his AFL /VFL career so far, I'm not sure you'd understand the hype around this guy tbh

 

[bzparkes]

Since he's a Qld local boy, there's no homesickness angle to play in negotiations.

He's a West Australian who spent parts of the offseason in WA. Has family in Perth.

They moved when he was around 8 or 9.

He may not be 'homesick' but he certainly has strong ties to WA.

 

[Makeshift Park]

The difference is Walter is competing with 2 of the best KPFs in the comp for games, with Read as the ruck/fwd third tall.
All of those guys are top 10 picks, so the natural talent advantage Walter might have isnt there

Theyre all relatively young too, like who is he pushing out of that side while GCS are pushing for flags over the next 5 years?
Does King get dropped?
JUH?(once he gets into the side, id argue hes more talented than Walter and has more proven form anyway)
Read? if you drop Read then who is the second ruck for GCS? its not going to be any of King JUH or Walter

10 games isnt a given for Walter if JUH gets into the side first

As you say picks for GCS mean little

Jy Farrar has been selected both games this year. Later stage of his career. He's been playing a tall forward role, albeit with different intangibles, and is hardly elite.

Certainly not inconceivable that Walter could offer more if he was given an opportunity.

 

[Makeshift Park]

He's a West Australian who spent parts of the offseason in WA. Has family in Perth.

They moved when he was around 8 or 9.

That's a wishful interpretation of what it means to be "West Australian" if you ask me.

He's spent more than half his life in Queensland. How much do you remember of your life prior before you turned 8? Not as much as the decade afterwards, I'm guessing.

 

[bzparkes]

That's a wishful interpretation of what it means to be "West Australian" if you ask me.

He's spent more than half his life in Queensland. How much do you remember of your life prior before you turned 8? Not at much as the decade afterwards, I'm guessing.

Well, I'm glad you asked this question, because exactly the same thing happened to me as a 9yo kid. We moved to Tasmania in 1993 and I very much consider WA home, not Tassie. I've only been back to WA once(2003) in that time.

I'm now 41 years old.

So for one bloke who's lived just over half his life in Qld and has been back numerous times already, I think his pull to go home would be much stronger than mine.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Well, I'm glad you asked this question, because exactly the same thing happened to me as an 8yo kid. We moved to Tasmania in 1992 and I very much consider WA home

Why?

 

[bzparkes]

Why?

Because I'm from WA. I don't have any family in Tasmania, other than my mother.

 

[Scotland]

Hope he does. Done the hard yards when they were shit, might as well cash in on a few flags.

Plenty of time later to go and play for a 'big' club.

Makes zero sense to leave GC now. Anderson, Rowell locked in, Petracca just arrived, Noble and Rioli who aren't on that level but are 25+ came in last year.

King is 26 this year and has plenty of footy ahead of him. Players just need out of the mindset of signing contracts in their mid 20s to take them through to retirement. Just sign for 2, 3, 4 years.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Because I'm from WA. I don't have any family in Tasmania, other than my mother.

Fair enough.

I'm a similar age to you. I moved to NSW from Tassie in my early twenties. Most of my relatives are still down there. But I don't really consider myself Tasmanian anymore. It'd take a pretty amazing job to make me want to move back.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how it all factors into Walter's decisions.

 

[bzparkes]

Fair enough.

I'm a similar age to you. I moved to NSW from Tassie in my early twenties. Most of my relatives are still there. But I don't really consider myself Tasmanian anymore. It'd take a pretty amazing job to make me want to move back.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how it all factors into Walter's decisions.

I suppose for me, we moved to Tasmania and my mother only had a distant cousin there(her father was born in Latrobe but moved to Melbourne when young).

Couple that with most of my close friends moving interstate and there's next to no desire to go back. I left in 2006 to go work in the snow. Having said that, when I worked in hospitality, I snagged a job as an F&B supervisor at Saffire Freycinet when it first opened and was there for 2 years. Only been back once since then though for one of my best mate's wedding(he lives up here anyway).

Agree would need to be an amazing job offer to move back but I do love the place and want to take my wife and kid for a visit soon(wife's from Thailand but lived down there with me before when I was working at Saffire from 2010-2012, kid hasn't been yet.)

 

[Scotland]

Walter should be in play for WC's second round pick.

I hope he re-signs because I shudder to think what horrible trade outcome we might come up with if he wants to join WC. 'Here's a top 5 pick for Walter and pick 23 because we made a commitment'.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I'd be very happy to give GC our future first in next year's Tassie-compromised draft for Walter.

Heck, if North perform at the upper end of our expectations and win ~10 games this year and we have pick ~7, I'd be stoked if we could split it into two late firsts and get Walter with one.

 

[stallon]

Jy Farrar has been selected both games this year. Later stage of his career. He's been playing a tall forward role, albeit with different intangibles, and is hardly elite.

Certainly not inconceivable that Walter could offer more if he was given an opportunity.

Farrar is a medium sized forward at 190cm.
Walter is a genuine KPF at 195cm

Theyre not the same type of player, there may not be room for him alongside King and JUH even if he takes Farrar's spot.
Dont forget there is Ethan Read in that forward line for a decent chunk too

Why would Walter be happy being so far down the pecking order, probably taking a smaller contract due to his role and the vast abundance of talent GCS have gotten courtesy of the AFLs draft quirks, when he could rock up at almost any other club and get paid more with a better role?

 

[Bagger72]

2026 is going to be a strong draft and picks will come at a premium more so than 2025 draft.

Walter has shown signs but not enough - but if you get to choose between Walter and Houndsome the its a no brainer. Which puts Walter lower in the pecking order.

 

[garlic munchers]

I'd be very happy to give GC our future first in next year's Tassie-compromised draft for Walter.

Heck, if North perform at the upper end of our expectations and win ~10 games this year and we have pick ~7, I'd be stoked if we could split it into two late firsts and get Walter with one.

I'd be happy to offer to retain our after 1st pick priority and hand over our two 2nd round Priority Picks for the big boy Walter.

Keeps the AFL, WC and the Suns happy, and suitably pisses everyone else off = works on balance.

 

[Jirik13]

Farrar is a medium sized forward at 190cm.
Walter is a genuine KPF at 195cm

Theyre not the same type of player, there may not be room for him alongside King and JUH even if he takes Farrar's spot.
Dont forget there is Ethan Read in that forward line for a decent chunk too

Why would Walter be happy being so far down the pecking order, probably taking a smaller contract due to his role and the vast abundance of talent GCS have gotten courtesy of the AFLs draft quirks, when he could rock up at almost any other club and get paid more with a better role?

Be patient. Walter's situation will get sort out either way during the season.

FWIW, Walter was likely to play in round 1 until his stupid act and suspension. For round 2, apparently according to Dimma, he did not want to change winning line-up.

Let's see if he plays in round 3. Farrar would be obvious player to make space for Walter although he does a lot of things right.

In the off-season, Dimma and coaches talked about trying Read in Blicavs like role on the wing and 3 talls - King, JUH, Walter together. I think it will still happen at some stage during the season. Will it work? Who knows. They are quite different players with different strengths. Possibly. 5 on the bench helps probably but right now Suns use bench to add run.

JUH is still probably 4-6 weeks away.