Preview JLT 2018 - Gold Coast v Geelong, 4:35pm Sunday, Townsville

[Willo_]

If you kick the ball 40+m to a 50/50 contest, it's considered effective. That's where alot of the conjecture would come from.

That's part of my beef... and basically if your target gets a hand to it, it's considered effective...

Which is crap, kicks to ankles, kicks or handballs over a players head that they get back and get the ball .. but are now under pressure they shouldn't be.. are effective
Nonsense.

 

[Landgraft]

Is their criteria on the public record?

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-28/stats-glossary-every-stat-explained

 

[Hello Kitty]

I value effective disposals

I just don't agree with what Champion Data deem an effective disposal

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-28/stats-glossary-every-stat-explained

 

[you pick one]

That's part of my beef... and basically if your target gets a hand to it, it's considered effective...

Which is crap, kicks to ankles, kicks or handballs over a players head that they get back and get the ball .. but are now under pressure they shouldn't be.. are effective
Nonsense.

So Megamanola could have been in negative territory as the criteria helps the player.Duncan too,keep DTC off my back

 

[goyoucatters]

We had 6...they had none. We weren’t just missing a third of our best 22. We were pretty much missing the top third.


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As a non-subscriber to Foxtel, I didn't see the game. And I hear (and lament) the ongoing criticism of game style. And some seemingly insipid individual performances.

But the numbers on our 'outs' for this game were definitely pretty telling, I think.

With Parf, Gaz, Cocky, Harry, Skip, Scoots, Hendo and Danger all missing, I have us at 8 players short of our best 22. Take that many out of any AFL line-up going around, and you would expect the output to dip dramatically.

There's a few other ways of looking at us being 8 short of our best 22 as well. I also believe that left us:

Missing 5 out of our first 10 picked (in Gaz, Harry, Skip, Hendo and Danger)
Missing all of our three best mids
Missing three of the top ten mids in the entire comp

While we won't see Scoots and Hendo soon, if we can get the other six back for Round 1, the team will look incredibly different on paper. And should perform quite differently as well.

In the end, the draftees clearly showed quite a bit. And we came home without any serious injuries, Kelly's knock notwithstanding.

Certainly a disappointing result. But Nakia was right long before the weekend. Once we selected that team, we were always looking down the barrel of being easily beaten on the day. Can't say the result really surprised me much at all in that respect.

Hopefully some players (and some intensity) return for this weekend's final hit-out.

Otherwise, I figure things will be hotter around here than on the Sun itself by next Monday.

 

[Willo_]

So Megamanola could have been in negative territory as the criteria helps the player.Duncan too,keep DTC off my back

The criteria absolutely helps the player.. but 2 players could have identical DE%.. 1 could hit the majority of targets lace out
The other could kick to contests all day, or kick it but not to the advantage of the team mate.

It can be a useful stat, but I do laugh when people wheel it out as a be all and end all.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

As a non-subscriber to Foxtel, I didn't see the game. And I hear (and lament) the ongoing criticism of game style. And some seemingly insipid individual performances.

But the numbers on our 'outs' for this game were definitely pretty telling, I think.

With Parf, Gaz, Cocky, Harry, Skip, Scoots, Hendo and Danger all missing, I have us at 8 players short of our best 22. Take that many out of any AFL line-up going around, and you would expect the output to dip dramatically.

There's a few other ways of looking at us being 8 short of our best 22 as well. I also believe that left us:

Missing 5 out of our first 10 picked (in Gaz, Harry, Skip, Hendo and Danger)
Missing all of our three best mids
Missing three of the top ten mids in the entire comp

While we won't see Scoots and Hendo soon, if we can get the other six back for Round 1, the team will look incredibly different on paper. And should perform quite differently as well.

In the end, the draftees clearly showed quite a bit. And we came home without any serious injuries, Kelly's knock notwithstanding.

Certainly a disappointing result. But Nakia was right long before the weekend. Once we selected that team, we were always looking down the barrel of being easily beaten on the day. Can't say the result really surprised me much at all in that respect.

Hopefully some players (and some intensity) return for this weekend's final hit-out.

Otherwise, I figure things will be hotter around here than on the Sun itself by next Monday.

As much as I expected the result given the outs we had and the youth taking their place in the team, I wanted to see changes to our system and I was left disappointed.

But, we have quite a few missing as you said, and they should straighten us up.

I'm loathe to think they'll run with a defense that includes Kolodajshnij, Thurlow and Guthrie.

 

[Jono_Hain97]

Geelong seem to have a pretty well-balanced side. The arrival of Gary Ablett, plus other stars, such as; Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Jordan Murdoch, probably makes their midfield the best in the competetition! I think Taylor goes back to replace Lonergan, and Blicavs goes to centre half forward, allowing Hawkins to play closer to goal! Overall, another top 4 finish seems likely

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Geelong seem to have a pretty well-balanced side. The arrival of Gary Ablett, plus other stars, such as; Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Jordan Murdoch, probably makes their midfield the best in the competetition! I think Taylor goes back to replace Lonergan, and Blicavs goes to centre half forward, allowing Hawkins to play closer to goal! Overall, another top 4 finish seems likely

 

[The rabbi]

I'd forgotten his goal, it got lost among the avalanche of other great goals we kicked yesterday rabs.

Esava kicked a third of Geelong's goals.
He could be the next Gary Ablett Sr.

 

[Willo_]

Geelong seem to have a pretty well-balanced side. The arrival of Gary Ablett, plus other stars, such as; Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Jordan Murdoch, probably makes their midfield the best in the competetition! I think Taylor goes back to replace Lonergan, and Blicavs goes to centre half forward, allowing Hawkins to play closer to goal! Overall, another top 4 finish seems likely

I'm sorry... you lost me at Jordan Murdoch

 

[rocker_oz33]

I only watch the first Q but young Miliers looked smart forward goal sneak we been looking for.

 

[goyoucatters]

As much as I expected the result given the outs we had and the youth taking their place in the team, I wanted to see changes to our system and I was left disappointed.

But, we have quite a few missing as you said, and they should straighten us up.

I'm loathe to think they'll run with a defense that includes Kolodajshnij, Thurlow and Guthrie.

Whether we like it or not, I think you'll find we're extremely likely to see Kolo back there at this point. Particularly with Hendo unavailable, he's probably just about inked in for now. Jackson is currently lowering expectations, I agree, and ideally I'd still like to see Guthrie playing out of the back half. But his form overall doesn't inspire confidence at the moment.

Wrong thread, I know, but my 22 for Round 1 right now would be:

Stewart Taylor Zuthrie
Bews Kolo Tuohy
Duncan Selwood Menegola
Kelly Crameri* Cockatoo
Menzel Hawkins Parfitt
Smith Ablett Dangerfield
Guthrie Blitz Parsons Gregson

* Big ask, I know, but Rhys is very underwhelming at the moment. And Buzza would probably still be better off with more time in the twos. If Crameri gets through JLT2, he might be in by default.

That team looks miles better than last Sunday's line-up to me. Of course, it would want to be if we are to have any chance.

 

[son of meto]

I think he is part of the backline group watching from Geelong

I thought he'd be playing CHB considering we don't have one at the club. Surely it's time to blood him now.
If he doesn't line up in Colac against Essendon, then I think the club are probably heading in a different direction.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

my biggest issue with judging too harshly yet, is that I would suggest we have the most adaptable/fluid game plan around.. week to week we change what we do and play differently influenced by the opposition... and mind you that is probably to the detriment of the side, as we can look in no mans land as well without our own set style compared to some.

When it doesn't work it looks bad, but that is the same for every sport in the world.... you very rarely look good getting beat.

I think the over use of handball is only a criticism if it doesn't work... and what I mean by that is, when the dogs won the flag they were ridiculous by hand. (probably threw the ball a lot to be fair)

There is no right or wrong necessarily and every game plan is a team by team basis depending on what your strengths and weaknesses are, I wonder if the aim is to get the ball to outside receivers who are good by foot, we have beasts inside who can win it, but when you are doing that you normally can't kick it all that cleanly just due to the traffic and pressure around you. So we try get it to someone clean and out who can kick, as opposed to someone scrubbing a kick under pressure that is turned over immediately. The whole thing is impacted by the pressure around us and how we handle it... we could play the same way but with vastly more experience/better personnel and look a completely different more effective side as well.

if we play the guns next week, and look as panicked and don't handle it then it's going to be a long year.
but if we pull it off the other team may not be able to get a hand on us as well

Pretty good summation.

Interested to see how we fare against the Dons given we seem to have a tougher time beating sides with good outside speed and who apply good pressure in D50. They are really good at the former and Tippa in particular is great at the latter.

 

[you pick one]

I'm sorry... you lost me at Jordan Murdoch

I think he just has no idea how to spell Megenzola.

 

[David the Cat]

So to are possessions if you keep giving it back.

I don't remember comparing him to Duncan in fact I don't think I mentioned him at all,but yes his disposal was s**t as well but we all know his will improve.Sam on the other hand may not.

You didn't....I did. It was just to illustrate that even the elite had low DE in the game.

 

[Baudolino]

2018 JLT Community Series Game 1 vs Gold Coast Centre Bounce Combinations

Q1:

20.00 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
19.01 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
13.53 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
12.33 - Stanley, Kelly, Horlin-Smith, Constable
11.38 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
8.53 - Buzza, Duncan, Kelly, Constable

Q2:

20.00 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
17.24 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
11.01 - Stanley, Kelly, Horlin-Smith, Constable

Q3:

20.00 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
19.41 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
18.53 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
18.16 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
6.50 - Buzza, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
2.15 - Smith, Kelly, Menegola, Horlin-Smith
1.17 - Smith, Menegola, Horlin-Smith, Constable

Q4:

20.00 - Smith, Duncan, Horlin-Smith, Fogarty
16.47 - Smith, Duncan, Horlin-Smith, Constable
11.32 - Smith, Horlin-Smith, Constable, Fogarty

Centre Bounce Attendances:

Smith: 9/19
Stanley: 8/19
Buzza: 2/19

Kelly: 15/19
Duncan: 14/19
Horlin-Smith: 11/19
Menegola: 9/19
Constable: 6/19
Fogarty: 2/19

 

[Ratcat]

I thought he'd be playing CHB considering we don't have one at the club. Surely it's time to blood him now.
If he doesn't line up in Colac against Essendon, then I think the club are probably heading in a different direction.

Thought by now they might be considering a permanent role for Marky Blitz. CHB.
He towelled the Suns talls after they got a start.

 

[terry_bright]

My observations

Our disposal by foot was horrible. Worst I've seen in a long time.
Our disposal by hand wasn't any better.
So many dropped chest marks.
Looked like a team 4 weeks behind in preperation and missing a lot of key players while playing 7 rookies without AFL experience.
GHS & Murdoch will free up some salary cap space at the end of the year.
Thurlow. I don't know where he's at. Really hope he has a good year but have my doubts.
Buzza IMO isn't AFL standard. Constantly drops marks and runs under the ball.
Menegola is slow. Especially on the defensive spread. I have my doubts if he'll be in the team come season's end.
C.Guthrie was ordinary at best. Was playing on Lynch or Day at times though. Z.Guthrie no better but he has a long way to go
Stanley. Meh.
Blicavs battled manfully playing in defence especially with the way the ball was coming into their forward line IMO worth persisting with down back.
Kelly. Tick
Miers, Constable, Fogarty showed a lot of promise.
Big Sav raw as hell and needs to build his tank but I liked what I saw.

 

[Cataholic]

As much as I expected the result given the outs we had and the youth taking their place in the team, I wanted to see changes to our system and I was left disappointed.

But, we have quite a few missing as you said, and they should straighten us up.

I'm loathe to think they'll run with a defense that includes Kolodajshnij, Thurlow and Guthrie.

Good summary, and captures my thoughts exactly.

I too was hoping to see changes, even if executed clumsily by our youngsters and debutants, but only saw more of the same. Only the names were different.

Hopefully the changes arrive with Selwood, Danger, Ablett, Taylor & Co.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

My observations

Our disposal by foot was horrible. Worst I've seen in a long time.
Our disposal by hand wasn't any better.
So many dropped chest marks.
Looked like a team 4 weeks behind in preperation and missing a lot of key players while playing 7 rookies without AFL experience.
GHS & Murdoch will free up some salary cap space at the end of the year.
Thurlow. I don't know where he's at. Really hope he has a good year but have my doubts.
Buzza IMO isn't AFL standard. Constantly drops marks and runs under the ball.
Menegola is slow. Especially on the defensive spread. I have my doubts if he'll be in the team come season's end.
C.Guthrie was ordinary at best. Was playing on Lynch or Day at times though. Z.Guthrie no better but he has a long way to go
Stanley. Meh.
Blicavs battled manfully playing in defence especially with the way the ball was coming into their forward line IMO worth persisting with down back.
Kelly. Tick
Miers, Constable, Fogarty showed a lot of promise.
Big Sav raw as hell and needs to build his tank but I liked what I saw.

Hard to argue with most of that except your Menegola assessment. He'll be better without being one of our main mids, and once we start winning the ball out of the stoppages where he can spread.

 

[And_ROOS]

Geelong seem to have a pretty well-balanced side. The arrival of Gary Ablett, plus other stars, such as; Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Jordan Murdoch, probably makes their midfield the best in the competetition! I think Taylor goes back to replace Lonergan, and Blicavs goes to centre half forward, allowing Hawkins to play closer to goal! Overall, another top 4 finish seems likely

Wow. All of that is wrong. Murdoch I will skip, Blitz was awesome yesterday in defence in a team getting hammered and its worth playing him there because he has no spot in midfield anymore, and Hawkins is looking fit and needs to be on the move unless you want more years of 2/3 on 1 in the forward line.

 

[Ratcat]

Blitz is the ideal candidate for CHB or key tall defence.
Fanatically competitive especially in a specific role, he's an ideal type to cast against name forwards.
He has that typical middle distance runners determination, refuse to loose.
Big too! 198/100kg.
What happened to Lynch and Day?...
1 goal each when they should've kicked plenty.

 

[Lana]

2018 JLT Community Series Game 1 vs Gold Coast Centre Bounce Combinations

Q1:

20.00 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
19.01 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
13.53 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
12.33 - Stanley, Kelly, Horlin-Smith, Constable
11.38 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
8.53 - Buzza, Duncan, Kelly, Constable

Q2:

20.00 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
17.24 - Stanley, Duncan, Kelly, Horlin-Smith
11.01 - Stanley, Kelly, Horlin-Smith, Constable

Q3:

20.00 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
19.41 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
18.53 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
18.16 - Smith, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
6.50 - Buzza, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola
2.15 - Smith, Kelly, Menegola, Horlin-Smith
1.17 - Smith, Menegola, Horlin-Smith, Constable

Q4:

20.00 - Smith, Duncan, Horlin-Smith, Fogarty
16.47 - Smith, Duncan, Horlin-Smith, Constable
11.32 - Smith, Horlin-Smith, Constable, Fogarty

Centre Bounce Attendances:

Smith: 9/19
Stanley: 8/19
Buzza: 2/19

Kelly: 15/19
Duncan: 14/19
Horlin-Smith: 11/19
Menegola: 9/19
Constable: 6/19
Fogarty: 2/19

Those numbers say a lot about how they rate Kelly and Constable.