Speculation Josh Dunkley [Contracted to 2022]

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Hak94

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Apr 27, 2021
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It makes 0 sense for us to trade him this season. We're going to be aiming for a flag next season and what Dunkley provides vs his current wage is too great to even consider moving him on unless it gave us a star KPD.

He will still be worth a top 10 pick after next season when out of contract
As much as I'm sure you'd love to keep him, you may not have a choice. The depth of your midfield + the amount of players you're needing to keep + the money they're going to want given their form, he may just be squeezed out. Has a similar feel to how GWS were built a few years ago and a few of their players were unfortunately squeezed out due to cap space. It's interesting to see how most people rate the Dogs mids, given just how much of magnet Dunkley is with the ball. Most people you talk too think players like Libba & Trealor are now ahead of him, given Libba's ability to get in tight/his clearance ability and Trealors sheer ability to break the lines. It's going to be another interesting trade period for Dunkley for sure. I'm sure he's in a better mindset than he was last trade period given the shape of the Dogs but I'm just not 100% sold on him staying put just yet. I'm also sure money isn't everything too him, so success is probably a bigger driving factor for him but I also know that being paid appropriately doesn't go astray in mindset either. After the year he has had, he's well and truly a $800-900k player. Can the Dogs afford that with everyone else they need to pay?! It's going to take a lot of rejigging to make it happen given the other pieces of the list puzzle they need to fit in. Is it worth squeezing out a few maybe lesser profile, but just as important/impactful players though. Gonna be really interesting.
 

Doggies_13

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As much as I'm sure you'd love to keep him, you may not have a choice. The depth of your midfield + the amount of players you're needing to keep + the money they're going to want given their form, he may just be squeezed out. Has a similar feel to how GWS were built a few years ago and a few of their players were unfortunately squeezed out due to cap space. It's interesting to see how most people rate the Dogs mids, given just how much of magnet Dunkley is with the ball. Most people you talk too think players like Libba & Trealor are now ahead of him, given Libba's ability to get in tight/his clearance ability and Trealors sheer ability to break the lines. It's going to be another interesting trade period for Dunkley for sure. I'm sure he's in a better mindset than he was last trade period given the shape of the Dogs but I'm just not 100% sold on him staying put just yet. I'm also sure money isn't everything too him, so success is probably a bigger driving factor for him but I also know that being paid appropriately doesn't go astray in mindset either. After the year he has had, he's well and truly a $800-900k player. Can the Dogs afford that with everyone else they need to pay?! It's going to take a lot of rejigging to make it happen given the other pieces of the list puzzle they need to fit in. Is it worth squeezing out a few maybe lesser profile, but just as important/impactful players though. Gonna be really interesting.
He is still contracted for next year so we don’t have to pay him anymore next year?

The poster you responded to meant there is zero sense trading him out at the end of this year given we look like we will challenge this year and next. And his value will be much similar after the 2022 season as it will be at the end of this year.

Now if we want to keep him after 2022 then we will have to pay him more and he will have big offers but doesn’t affect holding him to his contract again this off season
 

Hak94

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He is still contracted for next year so we don’t have to pay him anymore next year?

The poster you responded to meant there is zero sense trading him out at the end of this year given we look like we will challenge this year and next. And his value will be much similar after the 2022 season as it will be at the end of this year.

Now if we want to keep him after 2022 then we will have to pay him more and he will have big offers but doesn’t affect holding him to his contract again this off season
You're correct in that, I was more so referring to getting maximum value for him in reference to how "pre-agents" are becoming a thing a year out of their contract expiring and clubs getting the maximum value for them. Should have added that in. The club will have some sort of an idea what their cap space will look like next year and also they'll have some sort of an idea of what Dunkley's next contract in terms of money + length is too. Given his form, he'll probably be one of the highest-paid at the Dogs with his next contract (if he stays). Just could be a good chance for the Dogs to cash in if they can't see a way to fit his pay in with everyone else the Dogs need to keep + given the depth of the mids you have anyway. But yeah, you're right in that it doesn't really impact holding him to his contract for his final year but also... don't again forget that big money from other clubs talks a lot too.

I'm sure the Ess move was a lot closer than we all think, given it was reported he was offered $800k+ a year (regardless of the picks the Dogs wanted for him). They're going to have more money to throw around this year too, with some players being moved on due to their rebuild. I'm sure they're going to come again if they aren't already working on it.
 

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Hak94

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I believe his value is the same if not less, shoulders injury is a tricky one.
GAJ or Shiel were never the same after doing theirs.
Buyer beware.
Sure, there is a little bit of a concern but I honestly don't think it impacts his value too much. He looks to be the ultimate professional in how he approaches everything - training, leadership, his body, playing etc, so I'm sure he's going to do everything to get his body back to close to 100% as he can. If anything, it may slide the value of a high first-rounder down somewhere a few spaces back (previously 5-6 maybe now 8-10?) even than that isn't much. So, maybe a little bit of buyer beware but I think Dunkley is a proven player and his value is retained if not increased in asking price compared to where it was last year.
 

Hak94

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There are probably 17 other clubs that would want him too now, but realistically there is maybe only a handful he'd suit need-wise. Carlton makes sense on paper, but I think they really need to go back and reassess going young rather than trying to plug holes by bringing in players for the now i.e a Dunkley type. Plus, could they actually afford him given they need to sign Cripps + McKay up this offseason. Not even sure Dunkley would want to go there given what they're showing currently too. Wouldn't be surprised if Geelong are having a sniff around behind the scenes too. Hawthorn still have some major gaps up forward + up back, they need to restock.

On the current list builds + youth coming through + what is being shown I honestly think it's that he'll either stay at the Dogs or go to Essendon.
 

Hak94

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Exactly this.

Has any player asked to leave two years running and not been traded?

Once yes, but twice?
Not on my memory, Gibbs would have to have been the closest in recent memory but he got to where he wanted to go.

Would've been interesting to be a fly on the wall in terms of the scenarios being thrown around between the Dogs & Essendon last year. The apparent "breakdown" in talks and the Dogs straight up not wanting to deal unless what they wanted was on the table sounds way too staunch of a take, especially when a player (his agent at the time) has publicly committed to wanting to move. Surely they were at least taking the calls or screening the offers. Perhaps it's a little different this time around though. They've had a full 12 months to get their head around it more (Bains came out and said the other day Ess will come again too, so it's already in the back of their minds) and given teams can actually watch the players they can potentially draft this year too, that gives them some perspective in terms of what they can actually do with the pick + the kind of players that are around.
 

GetDimmaBack

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Not on my memory, Gibbs would have to have been the closest in recent memory but he got to where he wanted to go.

Would've been interesting to be a fly on the wall in terms of the scenarios being thrown around between the Dogs & Essendon last year. The apparent "breakdown" in talks and the Dogs straight up not wanting to deal unless what they wanted was on the table sounds way too staunch of a take, especially when a player (his agent at the time) has publicly committed to wanting to move. Surely they were at least taking the calls or screening the offers.
Not when he was/is both contracted and required
 

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Mofra

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I believe his value is the same if not less, shoulders injury is a tricky one.
GAJ or Shiel were never the same after doing theirs.
Buyer beware.
He's already had a reco on the other one, came back stronger.

I don't think any club can lure him now without luring his Siamese twin Treloar as well.
 

JayJ20

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Question for the neutrals, does the injury affect his trade value?
It's a difficult one. No from a Bulldogs perspective considering he is contracted. They can name a price and refuse to trade him.

I can't see anyone giving up two firsts though. If Dunkley wants to leave again and Bulldogs don't hold him to his contract, then yes it does impact his value. A shoulder reconstruction for an inside mid is too risky to give up two firsts.
 

HirdsTheWord

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He's already had a reco on the other one, came back stronger.

I don't think any club can lure him now without luring his Siamese twin Treloar as well.
Dunkley's friendship with Treloar is WAY overrated, lets be real.....does anything think Treloar is going to give Dunkley some of his Pay to keep him at the dogs? Cause I reckon he will take the $$ over pre training coffee sessions with Treloar if it came down to it.

As discussed before The Dogs have a SERIOUS amount of Talent coming to the end of their contracts in the next couple of years that the dogs will need to get within their cap, a lot of these are young players (Bontempelli,Naughton, Mcrae, Dunkley, Baily Smith, English etc etc), somethings going to have to give to fit everyone in the reduced cap.

What do dogs fans actually think Dunkley is worth IF he asks to leave again? There's no way the dogs will get the 2 x Top 10 picks they asked for last year. SO id be interested in what they actually think he is worth.
 

Mofra

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Dunkley's friendship with Treloar is WAY overrated, does anything think Treloar is going to give Dunkley some of his Pay to keep him at the dogs? Cause I reckon he will take the $$ over pre training coffee sessions with Treloar if it came down to it.

As discussed before The Dogs have a SERIOUS amount of Talent coming to the end of their contracts in the next couple of years that the dogs will need to get within their cap, a lot of these are young players (Bontempelli,Naughton, Mcrae, Dunkley, Baily Smith, English etc etc), somethings going to have to give to fit everyone in the reduced cap.

What do dogs fans actually think Dunkley is worth IF he asks to leave again? There's no way the dogs will get the 2 x Top 10 picks they asked for last year. SO id be interested in what they actually think he is worth.
The two 'good picks' seemed like a starting point in negotiations (or a stalling tactic so we could get Treloar if you believe some rumours).
Most of the former GWS A-graders went for two first rounders and a second going back so if he did want to leave I'd imagine that's the value we're aiming for. Preferably one of them in the top 10, although we're in our window so we'd want to on-trade a pick for an established player.
 

HirdsTheWord

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The two 'good picks' seemed like a starting point in negotiations (or a stalling tactic so we could get Treloar if you believe some rumours).
Most of the former GWS A-graders went for two first rounders and a second going back so if he did want to leave I'd imagine that's the value we're aiming for. Preferably one of them in the top 10, although we're in our window so we'd want to on-trade a pick for an established player.
I'd say 2 firsts with a second back is probably fair enough. Pending where they sit.

If one was going to be Top 10 then the second first would be late, and the 2nd back would need to be early.

PS: seemingly what the dogs meant by 2 x good picks, was 2 x incredible picks..........
 

HirdsTheWord

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What makes you think that? A 30 year old Ablett suddenly not being the best player in the AFL anymore after popping it?

Oliver Wines and Clayton Oliver both had full shoulder reconstructions and they're in career best form. A shoulder reconstruction doesn't represent anywhere near as big of a long term risk as you think.
id tend to agree..........I would be way less suspicious over a shoulder than I would say an ACL.

But regardless with the emergence of Parish I doubt Essendon are even that focused on Dunkley anymore. I'd much rather target a gun key forward.
 

Hak94

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Dunkley's friendship with Treloar is WAY overrated, lets be real.....does anything think Treloar is going to give Dunkley some of his Pay to keep him at the dogs? Cause I reckon he will take the $$ over pre training coffee sessions with Treloar if it came down to it.

As discussed before The Dogs have a SERIOUS amount of Talent coming to the end of their contracts in the next couple of years that the dogs will need to get within their cap, a lot of these are young players (Bontempelli,Naughton, Mcrae, Dunkley, Baily Smith, English etc etc), somethings going to have to give to fit everyone in the reduced cap.

What do dogs fans actually think Dunkley is worth IF he asks to leave again? There's no way the dogs will get the 2 x Top 10 picks they asked for last year. SO id be interested in what they actually think he is worth.
I think a first-rounder is definitely a fair, as part of the deal. What comes alongside that now is the question. With the addition of a second-rounder, I think the Dogs would surely look at it. So, a 1st + 2nd would be a good starting point. Possibly even a 1st + two 2nd's, but that may even be overs. Not entirely sure what their current draft hand is like for 2021 and their need for points but maybe even helping the Dogs out by dealing some later picks for points if they need for F/S players. If there were an established defender that is possibly coming to the end of their reign (or can't get in a team), but can still play I think the Dogs may even look at that as in terms of overall balance the Dogs defence looks to be their weakest point.
 

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