Restricted Free Agent Josh Kelly [option to significantly extend current deal]

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james Dean

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 18, 2006
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Otherside of the Tracks
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Carlton
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There’s also no guarantee that if he went to a Vic club he would get ultimate success.

Richmond and Geelong may only have a couple of years before their eventual decline. North look to have a multi year rebuild in front of them.

The bulldogs wouldn’t be prioritising him with their gun midfield.

Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Essendon may or may not be a long way off. Roll of the dice with these clubs really. Law of averages says one will probably succeed, one will fail and the other two probably end up middling out. Hard to pick which will end up where.

For me, Melbourne is probably the only club that projects well medium term list wise on current form. The Saints are also a wildcard.

Just as much chance for him to see success at GWS if he stuck it out for the next half dozen years than picking one of those sides. And the cash is excellent.
Lynch is the only big name recruit I can think of in recent years who actually won a flag.

Judd
Ablett
Franklin
Dangerfield

no flags combined (at their new clubs)

there have been examples of trades which helped win flags, Prestia, Boyd, Yeo. But they all came at reasonable costs

and there have also been free agent signings which have contributed to flags. Frawley for example

but they weren’t big names.

there’s actually reason to believe that going balls out on a big name to be the messiah is not the way to go.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 20, 2006
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Lynch is the only big name recruit I can think of in recent years who actually won a flag.

Judd
Ablett
Franklin
Dangerfield

no flags combined (at their new clubs)

there have been examples of trades which helped win flags, Prestia, Boyd, Yeo. But they all came at reasonable costs

and there have also been free agent signings which have contributed to flags. Frawley for example

but they weren’t big names.

there’s actually reason to believe that going balls out on a big name to be the messiah is not the way to go.
Two of those actually played in grand finals though. Ablett was probably unlucky GC turned to sh*t and never had to actually trade for him. Boyd although he had no runs on the board was a huge trade amd cost a heap. Burgoyne was another big name recruit who cost a lot.
West Coast and Richmond 17 could be argued are the only teams in the last 8 years to win a flag without a massive recruit/trade.
 

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Northernsoul74

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 19, 2016
10,524
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Any chance of some discussion about GWS player Josh Kelly?
Could/would GWS pull their massive offer or is he a must keep at any cost for them? I wonder if secretly they wouldn’t mind him going to get them out of the $$$ he’s been promised. The size and length is a bit concerning from the outside and his firm the past 18 month doesn’t warrant it. They’d want to very sure he really wants to stay and is going to just coast.
 

owen87

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 23, 2016
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Could/would GWS pull their massive offer or is he a must keep at any cost for them? I wonder if secretly they wouldn’t mind him going to get them out of the $$$ he’s been promised. The size and length is a bit concerning from the outside and his firm the past 18 month doesn’t warrant it. They’d want to very sure he really wants to stay and is going to just coast.
If I was GWS I'd be pretty happy for him to leave, that contract plus Coniglio's really hurts them long-term, along with having a few other guys like Whitfield on long-term contracts that can't be cheap. They might need to do a bit of a Collingwood.
 

Ants

Premiership Player
Sep 27, 2005
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Could/would GWS pull their massive offer or is he a must keep at any cost for them? I wonder if secretly they wouldn’t mind him going to get them out of the $$$ he’s been promised. The size and length is a bit concerning from the outside and his firm the past 18 month doesn’t warrant it. They’d want to very sure he really wants to stay and is going to just coast.
Are they able to? The contract was signed in 2019, presumably the option is only for Kelly, not for GWS.
 

HirdsTheWord

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Jun 19, 2014
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If I was GWS I'd be pretty happy for him to leave, that contract plus Coniglio's really hurts them long-term, along with having a few other guys like Whitfield on long-term contracts that can't be cheap. They might need to do a bit of a Collingwood.
Kelly has had much poorer years since in 2017 when he was touted as a 1 million a year player.

has not played more than 20 games a year since 2017 and has significant drop off stats wise.

Id very much think GWS would like to get out of an 8 year/8 million dollar deal and i'm not sure what team is going to offer him Josh Kelly 2017 money.
 

Wild Bill

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May 28, 2013
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Kelly has had much poorer years since in 2017 when he was touted as a 1 million a year player.

has not played more than 20 games a year since 2017 and has significant drop off stats wise.

Id very much think GWS would like to get out of an 8 year/8 million dollar deal and i'm not sure what team is going to offer him Josh Kelly 2017 money.
Agree - this is one of the best contracts ever signed. If Vic clubs won’t get close to what he is on he stays. He gets paid either way.
 

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F_therest

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 3, 2013
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If I was GWS I'd be pretty happy for him to leave, that contract plus Coniglio's really hurts them long-term, along with having a few other guys like Whitfield on long-term contracts that can't be cheap. They might need to do a bit of a Collingwood.
Clubs need to learn not to give these ridiculous contracts...7+ years is a loooong time and every chance a players form drops and output doesn't match the price tag. The game itself changes alot in 7 years with all the rule changes etc. Always the risk of injuries too.

Kelly, coniglio, Grundy are a few that don't look good currently. De goey would be on the list if he accepted norths offer.
 

Northernsoul74

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 19, 2016
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Clubs need to learn not to give these ridiculous contracts...7+ years is a loooong time and every chance a players form drops and output doesn't match the price tag. The game itself changes alot in 7 years with all the rule changes etc. Always the risk of injuries too.

Kelly, coniglio, Grundy are a few that don't look good currently. De goey would be on the list if he accepted norths offer.
We’re currently only willing to give the Bont 5 years for this reason.
 

THE_GUN

R.I.P Shane Tuck 21
Dec 28, 2007
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Clubs need to learn not to give these ridiculous contracts...7+ years is a loooong time and every chance a players form drops and output doesn't match the price tag. The game itself changes alot in 7 years with all the rule changes etc. Always the risk of injuries too.

Kelly, coniglio, Grundy are a few that don't look good currently. De goey would be on the list if he accepted norths offer.
Dusty is the standout he is in his 4th year of 7 year deal and has been worth every penny then some
He turns 30 in june and will be 33 when out of contract next time and probably go on a year by year after that

Can see him playing until 36/37 as he is extremely durable and will play his 250th game next week just 6 games into his 12th year
missed a total of less than 10 games
 

HirdsTheWord

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Dusty is the standout he is in his 4th year of 7 year deal and has been worth every penny then some
He turns 30 in june and will be 33 when out of contract next time and probably go on a year by year after that

Can see him playing until 36/37 as he is extremely durable and will play his 250th game next week just 6 games into his 12th year
missed a total of less than 10 games
stand out and then some.

he has been amazing.
 

the Ziebull

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 14, 2010
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Would be thrilled to keep Kelly at the 2019 agreed terms. Sure, it's expensive, but he's literally the most important player we have ever had at our club.
Toby Greene’s the most important player you’ve ever had, I’d argue jezza cameron next

The good news for Kelly is he has that 1mil a year guarantee to stay if he wants so whatever happens he’s going to be on top dollar as teams will also pay big to get him as a free agent
 

CatToTheFuture

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 18, 2018
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Richmond surprisingly have managed their cap pretty well and have a pretty decent raft of picks to trade. Would be nice to have a restricted free agent that a club was made to trade for that wasn’t the cats, even just for a historical footnote.
 

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