Recommitted Josh Kelly [re-signs with GWS]

[TylerDurden]

Im not so sure about that you took on the last 3 years of Scully's contract (its why you got him so cheap) who would have been on way more money than Burton and Wingard as a pre agent would only have moved for big $. I think with Frawley and Roughead and Burgoyne soon to go you could fit him in but you would really have to backend it you won't have much room in 2020.

That said I think he'll stay for another 2 years at GWS even though your club and mine will be chasing him.

Birchall's the other one that may finish up.

We had bucket loads to throw at Lynch that didn't come off either.

But yeah, can't see him leaving yet.

 

[Yoda_]

Well one thing is sure as s**t, there's no chance Kelly will choose to piss his career away at North.

Probably the right career choice imho
May as well play VFL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Little doubt both NM and Carl will make huge offers but he wants to play finals I doubt he goes there. Ess wont have the picks or the cap room and i doubt Richmond can fit in his $. Ditto Collingwood (who more need KPPs anyway) Melbourne maybe could with Hogan's $ gone depends what May is on. You never rule out Hawthorn because they have a history of doing deals but even if Roughead and Burgoyne both retire they would have to really backend a deal to fit him in imo. Geelong will have the $ and may have the picks if TK goes so its possible we have a dip at him.

When you put aside all if the BF BS I think the standing of your club system can't hurt. Leon's said in the past yours the Hawks and Swans are the model we want to follow.

It's not always what you think though. Devon Smith was reliably reported as being most interested in clubs rehab facilities and system before deciding on the Bombers.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

When you put aside all if the BF BS I think the standing of your club system can't hurt. Leon's said in the past yours the Hawks and Swans are the model we want to follow.

It's not always what you think though. Devon Smith was reliably reported as being most interested in clubs rehab facilities and system before deciding on the Bombers.

Geelong made a good offer to Smith as did a few clubs but Essendon offered more $ in the end which was a good call by them. That said i think that type of offer is more likely to sway a middle tier player like Smith who has less career earning certainty and needs to rake in the $ while they can. In theory an elite and more marketable player like Kelly should get a bigger share of TPA $ at any club he plays at and more post career opportunities so has less need to be swayed by $ and may pick a club more based on flag prospects. But thats a general theory and doesnt have much to do with Kelly.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Birchall's the other one that may finish up.

We had bucket loads to throw at Lynch that didn't come off either.

But yeah, can't see him leaving yet.

Forgot about Birchall fair point. I think the Hawks will have a real dip and i rate their trading coaching and system. That said you are pretty thin on for A grade KPF prospects with Frawley and Roughead near the end and only Brand Nash OBrien and Lewis to replace them (i rate Lewis but statistically its rare to get quality KPF with late picks and i think the rest are likely busts) you may well be better off list wise spending yournext 2 R1s and cap on a topline KPF than Kelly. That said if an elite player like him chooses your club you try to make it happen and I have little doubt both Hawthorn and Geelong would work hard to make it happen if he chose them.

 

[TylerDurden]

Forgot about Birchall fair point. I think the Hawks will have a real dip and i rate their trading coaching and system. That said you are pretty thin on for A grade KPF prospects with Frawley and Roughead near the end and only Brand Nash OBrien and Lewis to replace them (i rate Lewis but statistically its rare to get quality KPF with late picks and i think the rest are likely busts) you may well be better off list wise spending yournext 2 R1s and cap on a topline KPF than Kelly. That said if an elite player like him chooses your club you try to make it happen and I have little doubt both Hawthorn and Geelong would work hard to make it happen if he chose them.

Yeah I don’t reckon we’d trade for him unless he picked us. We don’t have the trade currency now.

Cogs however, is another story. And I believe he is the target and the one we’re freeing up the cap space for.

 

[Turbocat]

When you put aside all if the BF BS I think the standing of your club system can't hurt. Leon's said in the past yours the Hawks and Swans are the model we want to follow.

It's not always what you think though. Devon Smith was reliably reported as being most interested in clubs rehab facilities and system before deciding on the Bombers.

The way you have previously posted ... its sounds like both Haw and Geelong may struggle to get him.. I doubt either offer the best dollars... booth in the past have tried to keep the wage real. So it may get down to him staying ... GWS may be in the best spot to offer him max dollars. Perhaps both bend and change a bit to add someone of Kellys ability but it would be quite a change for club and for player The pressure of coming to a Vic club with a big contract is something Id suspect would be quite different to what its like in west syd.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

St Kilda isn’t being talked about much here. They’d have a fair bit of coin and would fit in seamlessly. If they didn’t f**k up getting Hannebery, i’d have them just about equal favourite odds of getting him.

Love Norf’s optimism but all they can attract are B grade workhorses.

It’d be interesting if Tim Kelly wanted to stay at Geelong and Josh’s Kelly wanted to go to Geelong. If cap space is tight, do Geelong say too bad to Tim Kelly after his antics last trade period? Could Geelong afford both Kelly’s? Can’t imagine Tim would ask for anything less than $600k and Josh $900k-$1.1M

 

[Turbocat]

St Kilda isn’t being talked about much here. They’d have a fair bit of coin and would fit in seamlessly. If they didn’t f**k up getting Hannebery, i’d have them just about equal favourite odds of getting him.

Love Norf’s optimism but all they can attract are B grade workhorses.

It’d be interesting if Tim Kelly wanted to stay at Geelong and Josh’s Kelly wanted to go to Geelong. If cap space is tight, do Geelong say too bad to Tim Kelly after his antics last trade period? Could Geelong afford both Kelly’s? Can’t imagine Tim would ask for anything less than $600k and Josh $900k-$1.1M

I think we would would love to have that type of trouble ... it might be difficult to get a trade done . I think we would love to have both but it would get down to $$$$...your numbers seem close to what id expect... and it would probably mean a couple of contracted players told to look around

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think we would would love to have that type of trouble ... it might be difficult to get a trade done . I think we would love to have both but it would get down to $$$$...your numbers seem close to what id expect... and it would probably mean a couple of contracted players told to look around

My gut feel is if we move some players on decent money that we dont need (SS ZS etc) and backend some contracts we could fit both in but I suspect its more about trade currency as GWS will rightly want some very good picks for JK and I doubt we will have them unless we lose TK.

 

[triggering bro]

St Kilda isn’t being talked about much here. They’d have a fair bit of coin and would fit in seamlessly. If they didn’t f**k up getting Hannebery, i’d have them just about equal favourite odds of getting him.

Love Norf’s optimism but all they can attract are B grade workhorses.

It’d be interesting if Tim Kelly wanted to stay at Geelong and Josh’s Kelly wanted to go to Geelong. If cap space is tight, do Geelong say too bad to Tim Kelly after his antics last trade period? Could Geelong afford both Kelly’s? Can’t imagine Tim would ask for anything less than $600k and Josh $900k-$1.1M

We would still have the money. Hanneberry is on reported 800k which isn’t alot in the scheme of things especially with the overal cap being 12M. 800k is like 650k two years ago. It’s good coin but not massive coin. There are guys like Fyfe & Dusty on 1.4M as a result of the last cap increase.

Carlisle & Armitage’s contracts expire, Armo will likely retire & Carlisle’s contract will be reduced. Roberton (650k) & Paddy (450k) will likely retire.

Billings & Gresham will get pay rises but due to our cap issues (unable to pay minimum cap) their pay rises won’t even be that significant (up from 500k to around 650-700k).

Saying that, I doubt Kelly is interested. If he were to leave it was when North offered 10M. He’s two years older now & that offer is likely significantly reduced.

I’d be extremely surprised if he left the Giants. He’ll stay & get paid quite well.

 

[Taylor]

North having poor seasons has coincided with Josh Kelly coming out of contract so I wonder if GWS has made it known he won't be moving for less than a top three pick and next years pick.

Imagine finding that was true after the trade. Tanking allegations abound.

 

[Nugett]

I think Kelly will stay. Most clubs wouldn’t have the currency to get him. Probably only North, Saints and Geelong would have both the cash and the picks required to do a trade.

 

[foxdog50]

My gut feel is if we move some players on decent money that we dont need (SS ZS etc) and backend some contracts we could fit both in but I suspect its more about trade currency as GWS will rightly want some very good picks for JK and I doubt we will have them unless we lose TK.

I hope he comes, but Scott Selwood. Surely he will be at Geelong next year but will probably be on 100g a year less

 

[foxdog50]

I think Kelly will stay. Most clubs wouldn’t have the currency to get him. Probably only North, Saints and Geelong would have both the cash and the picks required to do a trade.

You guys will have some spare coin as well...

 

[Nugett]

You guys will have some spare coin as well...

Just don’t think that we would have the trade currency to get it done, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Just don’t think that we would have the trade currency to get it done, but stranger things have happened.

Interesting how much players and their managers consider the trade aspect in choosing a club. Shiel said not my problem bluntly when he was considering his options last year. I think that's fair enough.

I think it's overrated as a factor for the players in this forum, it really does become the club's problem to sort it when an OOC player nominates a destination. After the inevitable huffing and puffing it nearly always does get sorted.

I think any influence from the trade prospects is probably indirect. The destination club in discussions with the player ir their manager by might be less keen if they can see trouble ahead with the trade.

It's nice to think players consider their existing club when moving, as it would be nice to think clubs keep players because they like them if they aren't performing. I dont believe it happens though.

 

[Nugett]

Interesting how much players and their managers consider the trade aspect in choosing a club. Shiel said not my problem bluntly when he was considering his options last year. I think that's fair enough.

I think it's overrated as a factor for the players in this forum, it really does become the club's problem to sort it when an OOC player nominates a destination. After the inevitable huffing and puffing it nearly always does get sorted.

I think any influence from the trade prospects is probably indirect. The destination club in discussions with the player ir their manager by might be less keen if they can see trouble ahead with the trade.

It's nice to think players consider their existing club when moving, as it would be nice to think clubs keep players because they like them if they aren't performing. I dont believe it happens though.

I remember reading something about Chris Judd, when he wanted to move back to Melbourne. His manager was telling him which clubs it would be easier for him to get to via trade, which besides the Visy payments, Carlton was his option.

So I think the managers are aware of the various trade situations and what can realistically be achieved, and help in the decision making of the player. As I imagine it would be in the managers best interest to have a good working relationship with clubs, as well as their players. In saying that I could be naive in my thinking and understanding of the managers role!

As for the players, I think some players will look after themselves, while others will consider both clubs involved.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I remember reading something about Chris Judd, when he wanted to move back to Melbourne. His manager was telling him which clubs it would be easier for him to get to via trade, which besides the Visy payments, Carlton was his option.

So I think the managers are aware of the various trade situations and what can realistically be achieved, and help in the decision making of the player. As I imagine it would be in the managers best interest to have a good working relationship with clubs, as well as their players. In saying that I could be naive in my thinking and understanding of the managers role!

As for the players, I think some players will look after themselves, while others will consider both clubs involved.

This is a podcast if Phil Davis and a financial mob about money in footy.Phil's a pretty straight shooter and to me it contains some insight into the players thinking in these matters. It's not specifically trade scenarios and doesn't rebut what you said. Interesting background though.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw1fWGziTpiSZmCLJLoVjdZy&cshid=1555893514370

 

[The Filth Wizard]

North having poor seasons has coincided with Josh Kelly coming out of contract so I wonder if GWS has made it known he won't be moving for less than a top three pick and next years pick.

Imagine finding that was true after the trade. Tanking allegations abound.

I know it's naive to post it around these parts but there really hasn't been any noise out of North in relation to Kelly (and there certainly is no "handshake agreement"). I personally don't think our recruitment strategy now is the same as it was last time (we've added a few mids by trade and draft) and you don't need eyes to see our real areas of need are talls and competent small forwards as a starting point. There'll probably be a half hearted attempt through due diligence but I don't think we're a player in this at all.

 

[Sheepey]

Gut feel is that he stays at the Giants. His injuries and his relative lower performance so far this season and last season in comparison to his stunning 2017 means he isn't as huge as he was in 2017 when people were throwing $10 million deals at him (although his salary range would still like be $800k+ a year).

Would love for Saints to get him but it's hard to see it happening. If North were a top 4 side I imagine they'd be a lot more attractive in his eyes.

 

[jwikked]

North having poor seasons has coincided with Josh Kelly coming out of contract so I wonder if GWS has made it known he won't be moving for less than a top three pick and next years pick.

Imagine finding that was true after the trade. Tanking allegations abound.

No team in the AFL would spend a whole year tanking just for one player. It's not worth it, no matter who it is.
I can understand tanking from Round 16 onwards, but no team would enter a season ready to tank.

 

[Taylor]

No team in the AFL would spend a whole year tanking just for one player. It's not worth it, no matter who it is.
I can understand tanking from Round 16 onwards, but no team would enter a season ready to tank.

I think there have been two sides do it in the last ten years.

 

[The_Steadier]

St Kilda isn’t being talked about much here. They’d have a fair bit of coin and would fit in seamlessly. If they didn’t f**k up getting Hannebery, i’d have them just about equal favourite odds of getting him.

Love Norf’s optimism but all they can attract are B grade workhorses.

It’d be interesting if Tim Kelly wanted to stay at Geelong and Josh’s Kelly wanted to go to Geelong. If cap space is tight, do Geelong say too bad to Tim Kelly after his antics last trade period? Could Geelong afford both Kelly’s? Can’t imagine Tim would ask for anything less than $600k and Josh $900k-$1.1M

Hanners only accounted for less than half the cap space we have.

All reports were that our board had approved up to circa 1.2mil/year long term for shiel- that was after hanners was done and dusted.

We've been frontloading every half decent contract we have for years just to meet the min 95% threshold.

Lack of money is the absolute last reason we wouldn't be into kelly.

He clearly would want to 'come home' to north though- so i don't have my hopes up.

In all seriousness though- if (huge if) we were to finish top 4 this year, I'd be very confident of our chances of getting him.

Whatever happens- my tip is he will be on the move somewhere in the event of a 2019 gws flag.

 

[THE_GUN]

Said it 12 months ago and still believe it will be the same , If Kelly decides to leave GWS

Carlton