Josh Kelly

Do you think Josh Kelly will stay at GWS beyond 2017?

  • Yes, he will re-sign and commit to GWS

  • No, he will head back home to Victoria

Results are only viewable after voting.

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Determinant said:
Pretty sure Sydney is non vic.
Without trying to think of others Lynch and Hall were also pretty often on TV last year.
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Brett Kirk was Sydney too, he was trialled for TV with "interesting" results.
 
Determinant said:
I missed those, shame as I really enjoyed the doco he did on the AFL overseas, I don't recall the name, watched it on a flight somewhere.
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I'll have to search for that, always liked the players who were a little bit 'different' from the norm.
 

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Kruzering said:
Yeah but you'll probably win the premiership this year, putting 100k a year on his head.

Might be smarter for GWS to maximize what they can get for him in a trade than wait till he's a free agent.

I'd offer Carltons first (likely top 4 pick) and offer him 5x$750k

Be pretty tempting for him if you guys win the flag

-premiership player
-come home
-50% more money
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You think GWS are going to accept a single top 4 pick for a guy who was a #2 pick only a few years ago and is looking like a champ? I mean, I know GWS has been selling their "fringe" guys for peanuts, but I think Kelly will be in the Treloar (or higher) cost bracket.
 
Ants said:
You think GWS are going to accept a single top 4 pick for a guy who was a #2 pick only a few years ago and is looking like a champ? I mean, I know GWS has been selling their "fringe" guys for peanuts, but I think Kelly will be in the Treloar (or higher) cost bracket.
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Well if they can't keep them all, Kelly said he wanted to leave and pick 4 for the best offer from a Melbourne club I reckon they might.

Obviously they wouldn't be over the moon about it, but I don't think a club would give 2 first rounders unless they were higher up the ladder (like Collingwood thought they would be).

If it were 2 x pick 15 v pick 4 I reckon GWS would prefer 4.
 
Kruzering said:
Well if they can't keep them all, Kelly said he wanted to leave and pick 4 for the best offer from a Melbourne club I reckon they might.

Obviously they wouldn't be over the moon about it, but I don't think a club would give 2 first rounders unless they were higher up the ladder (like Collingwood thought they would be).

If it were 2 x pick 15 v pick 4 I reckon GWS would prefer 4.
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Were Kelly to decide to leave, and that is less likely than him staying, no chance he is traded for less than 2 top end first rounders.
If you think a bid of pick 4 wouldn't be well and truly matched and beaten by at least 3 or 4 clubs you are having a lend of yourself, truly.
 
Determinant said:
Were Kelly to decide to leave, and that is less likely than him staying, no chance he is traded for less than 2 top end first rounders.
If you think a bid of pick 4 wouldn't be well and truly matched and beaten by at least 3 or 4 clubs you are having a lend of yourself, truly.
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I reckon Kelly is a gun, but I don't think we'll see too many more 2x first round picks for a player unless the club is a top 4 finisher and likey to do the same again the following year.

Would pick 4 be unders? yes, would you get more, if he wanted to leave/you couldn't fit him in your cap, I honestly don't think so.
 
Kruzering said:
I reckon Kelly is a gun, but I don't think we'll see too many more 2x first round picks for a player unless the club is a top 4 finisher and likey to do the same again the following year.

Would pick 4 be unders? yes, would you get more, if he wanted to leave/you couldn't fit him in your cap, I honestly don't think so.
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In my perfect world we never get to find out and only time will tell either way, but if he leaves I find it hard to believe we would not get fair value, the only players we have been prepared to give away for less than fair value are those starved of opportunity, this would not be that, this would be more like Treloar moving.
I am not sure I understand your top 4 hanger either, he will be 23 at the end of next year with plenty of years left in the game and a player who could shape a side's future, not just present.
 
Determinant said:
In my perfect world we never get to find out and only time will tell either way, but if he leaves I find it hard to believe we would not get fair value, the only players we have been prepared to give away for less than fair value are those starved of opportunity, this would not be that, this would be more like Treloar moving.
I am not sure I understand your top 4 hanger either, he will be 23 at the end of next year with plenty of years left in the game and a player who could shape a side's future, not just present.
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The top 4 comment relates to what pick you would get for Kelly. Eg say a Melbourne club came 4th this year and had pick 14-15 and were after Kelly, they may offer 2x first round picks expecting they would be top 4 the following so only giving up another mid teen pick. In that scenario I can absolutely see a club offer 2x first round picks.

But say the situation arose where you couldn't keep Kelly for cap reasons and he was happy to go anywhere in Melb and north come 16th (pick 3) and Carlton 15th (pick 4), there is no way Carlton is going to trump Norths offer of pick 3 by giving up another first rounder next year, which could be another top 5 pick.

I can't see a scenario where a club would be willing to offer up more than a high first round pick. GWS would have little interest in second rounders or fringe young players, they would just want the highest individual pick they could get.
 
Kruzering said:
The top 4 comment relates to what pick you would get for Kelly. Eg say a Melbourne club came 4th this year and had pick 14-15 and were after Kelly, they may offer 2x first round picks expecting they would be top 4 the following so only giving up another mid teen pick. In that scenario I can absolutely see a club offer 2x first round picks.

But say the situation arose where you couldn't keep Kelly for cap reasons and he was happy to go anywhere in Melb and north come 16th (pick 3) and Carlton 15th (pick 4), there is no way Carlton is going to trump Norths offer of pick 3 by giving up another first rounder next year, which could be another top 5 pick.

I can't see a scenario where a club would be willing to offer up more than a high first round pick. GWS would have little interest in second rounders or fringe young players, they would just want the highest individual pick they could get.
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Mostly I give up at this point, but will persist for clarity, I understand what you saying, but you are vastly overvaluing draft picks.

Let's say Carlton finish 14th next year.
They have pick 5, their nominal value for the following draft is pick 9 for arguments sake.
What you are saying is they would rather roll the dice twice (literally, look at the historical success rate of top ten picks) than spend those two picks on a single rolled gold mid; maybe, but I don't think SoS is that dumb and if he is, the teams that finished around him wont be.
 
Determinant said:
Mostly I give up at this point, but will persist for clarity, I understand what you saying, but you are vastly overvaluing draft picks.

Let's say Carlton finish 14th next year.
They have pick 5, their nominal value for the following draft is pick 9 for arguments sake.
What you are saying is they would rather roll the dice twice (literally, look at the historical success rate of top ten picks) than spend those two picks on a single rolled gold mid; maybe, but I don't think SoS is that dumb and if he is, the teams that finished around him wont be.
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*insert unessesary dismissive comment to establish I'm better*

Yeah I get your point, you could well be right that Kelly is more likely to give a club more than a pick 5 and a pick 9 on what his shown v percentages of success on those picks.

But if he wants outs/ he gets squeezed out of your cap, you'll have to accept the best offer, which may or may not be fair value.

We will likely never know as he'd be one of the top 5 at the club you'd want to keep, but I'd be very surprised if you got a top 5 and top 10 pick for him, even though that may well be his value.
 

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Moist Biscuit said:
Kelly's a star but 2 picks in the top 10 is probably overs unless a second rounder is thrown back.
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Which would be pretty much the Treloar price, and I think what it would cost. So I'd have no qualms Essendon handing over our 2017 and 2018 1st round picks for Kelly and a second rounder.
 
coniglio_number1 said:
I'd take a star over potential any day.

Cale Morton, Chris masten, Colin Sylvia, Jon O'rourke and Daniel gorringe were all top 10 picks
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Yeah, that's what I was getting at, 1 shot with as close as you get to a guarantee of success vs 2 maybes.
Word is he will re-sign in very early part of this year thus ending another exodus thread
 
Moist Biscuit said:
So would I but say 2 top 5 picks for Kelly and I would take the 2 top 5 picks. Draft picks are overrated but for example, Give me SPS and Setterfield over Kelly.
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Two tops 5 picks and I agree, but two top 10 picks and the risk doesn't equal the reward
 
coniglio_number1 said:
I was initially unhappy with the desicison to go for the 7th rated kid over the rolls Royce in mcluggage.

Safe to say he has grown on me
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Yeah I suppose Clug will be a champion but your recruiters know what they're doing. Taranto was the one I wanted at 3 before the Cam Mac trade, he's going to be a handfull in a couple of years.
 
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