Racing July Daily Punt: COVID 19 - Punters 0

[FallingLiefs]

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Got to love WA racing. Pikey jumps on and this thing is $3. Beaten 15L last start and strong SP profile right there.

I mean it was dropping from what you'd call a BM84 in the east (which was 8lb out of it's range) back to a pretty skinny class 3 race for mares but let's not let that get in the way of a good story.

 

[Hamingja]

I mean it was dropping from what you'd call a BM84 in the east (which was 8lb out of it's range) back to a pretty skinny class 3 race for mares but let's not let that get in the way of a good story.

Sure it was an ordinary race but it has started $2.30. That's insane. Nothing in the stewards report about it's previous start so not like it had a massive excuse.

 

[AEKBOMBERS]

Right You Are started $4.60 against Persan one day

Let that sink in....

Pulled up lame

 

[54Dogs]

Sure it was an ordinary race but it has started $2.30. That's insane. Nothing in the stewards report about it's previous start so not like it had a massive excuse.

Don't disagree Pike is massively over bet as reflected by his ROI but what I don't understand is why the pros would not just lay the horse hard if it's massive unders and push the price out. If the price holds that short on the fair they must have it marked not a lot longer

 

[iluvparis]

Pulled up lame

Hopefully they also checked if he had a heart.

 

[iluvparis]

Don't disagree Pike is massively over bet as reflected by his ROI but what I don't understand is why the pros would not just lay the horse hard if it's massive unders and push the price out. If the price holds that short on the fair they must have it marked not a lot longer

Isn't that the argument though - Pike heinously over bet - and not just by the mugs.

 

[54Dogs]

An utterly stupid statement given what I have explained. You have completely missed the point her true odds are % chance of having every chance in the race/getting there and after all that then you factor % chance of winning it. A month out of the cox plate last year most thought it was most likely she would head there and every single person lapping up the $10 would have not even got a starter for their money. She "would have started less than $6" that day too.


To be "value" assuming she starts $6 in a cox plate (some things against her/some things for). You would need to assess she is a greater than 55% chance to make it to the CP on the day in the exact same form as your marking her $6 on. Say you think she's an 70% chance to make it there at 100% and starting $6. $6.00*$1.42 ~$8.50. You would be taking $11 on a $8.50 chance (2.6% edge) yielding an expected return of $17 per $100 put on and the bookies hold your money for over 3 months. I wouldn't even bet on a horse I think is a $8.50 chance at $11 on the day.

PS she's the current best middle distance horse in Aus, and am a huge fanboy.

Based on this and the relevant pre-race risks, what would you rate her at currently with available information?

FWIW I also love her, think there is some risk she comes back more dour with age but has almost all the locals covered and almost has to be on a WFA trail in the spring given the handicap weights she will get.

 

[54Dogs]

Isn't that the argument though - Pike heinously over bet - and not just by the mugs.

Pros by definition are not eating well at night if they dive into this.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Sure it was an ordinary race but it has started $2.30. That's insane. Nothing in the stewards report about it's previous start so not like it had a massive excuse.

I don't know, I haven't been following for a while but $15 in a 72+ back to normal C3 mares $3 wasn't unheard of. There is a huge overreaction for Pike but obviously Pike jumped on for a reason. Looking more in depth at her form she's too good for that grade and must be having issues, probably pike's reason would be getting beat 1L in a stakes race or 2.2 with Pike on the back in Belmont Guineas last year behind G1 Winner Kay Cee and Laverrod.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Based on this and the relevant pre-race risks, what would you rate her at currently with available information?

FWIW I also love her, think there is some risk she comes back more dour with age but has almost all the locals covered and almost has to be on a WFA trail in the spring given the handicap weights she will get.

It's an interesting one. While I have good confidence in her, the Bias, MV, Firmness of track, 2000m and her age are all going to be interesting to watch throughout her preperation. If her previous preparations in vic are anything to go by she will look vulnerable at some stage and her career best would be longer than 365 days ago by time the start comes as a 6yo mare.

But to not avoid the question, with no knowledge of the field. I think she most likely starts $4.20-$4.60 and has 60% chance of making it there in acceptable form. The ranges are too large 3 months out and you are definitely not getting enough value but I have never done enough looking at long range markets. Normally It's rare to see faves salute this far out.

Always that 6-10% chance she gets there in peak physical condition where you can all say I told you so and she starts $2.20 on a wet fair track and kills them though.

 

[rank and file]

View attachment 1183068
Got to love WA racing. Pikey jumps on and this thing is $3. Beaten 15L last start and strong SP profile right there.

Got to love it all right,never seen so many wobbly horses at Pinjarra today and it's only 2 races in.
Bring on some Broome time tomorrow.

 

[windyhill]

Pinjarra r7 n3

 

[iluvparis]

I thought POINT LONSDALE was the lads best 2yo coming out of Royal Ascot but not sure if they agree as they are running him in a meaningless Group 3 at Leopardstown tonight where he is a deadset $1.20 chance.

There is a much more intriguing 2yo contest at Sandown tonight which sees Frankel filly INSPIRAL, who looked electric on debut, go up against Godolphin galloper Wild Beauty who is coming off back to back wins.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Bletchingly been fairly good in recent years but looks a bit skinny this year

 

[HeathySure]

Bletchingly been fairly good in recent years but looks a bit skinny this year

Streets of Avalon the only one with a semblance of class but its wet track form is horrible

 

[FallingLiefs]

Streets of Avalon the only one with a semblance of class but its wet track form is horrible

Are we planning basis bottomless?

 

[HeathySure]

Are we planning basis bottomless?

showers tomorrow and windy Sat .. i would say soft 7 to heavy 8

 

[Slipps]

I thought POINT LONSDALE was the lads best 2yo coming out of Royal Ascot but not sure if they agree as they are running him in a meaningless Group 3 at Leopardstown tonight where he is a deadset $1.20 chance.

There is a much more intriguing 2yo contest at Sandown tonight which sees Frankel filly INSPIRAL, who looked electric on debut, go up against Godolphin galloper Wild Beauty who is coming off back to back wins.

Inspiral gave them windburn.

 

[iluvparis]

Inspiral gave them windburn.

Looks absolutely top class!

 

[iluvparis]

I've been highlighting she is a complete and utter fraud for some time but every horse has its day and for the first (and likely only) time I'll be on SIERRA SUE in the Mildura Cup. Seriously if she can't win this they may as well just send her straight to the pal factory.

 

[54Dogs]

I've been highlighting she is a complete and utter fraud for some time but every race has its day and for the first (and likely only) time I'll be on SIERRA SUE in the Mildura Cup. Seriously if she can't win this they may as well just send her straight to the pal factory.

I said this about Hulk last start

 

[iluvparis]

I said this about Hulk last start

Hulk is Mr September in the Pal calendar

 

[54Dogs]

Hulk is Mr September in the Pal calendar

What month for Lyre? Surely Jan?

 

[toxic]

Preusker juice is Friday strong

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting return to the track for ALPINE STAR tonight in a Listed race at York - she was close to the best filly in Europe outside Love last year and this looks a massive step down in class for her so not sure why she has turned up here. Goes around at Point Lonsdale odds.

Master Of Reality goes around as fave in the moderate Listed event at Down Royal he won last year. I've never rated him and his win in this last year is his only success in over 2.5 years. As such he has to be opposed and I am with the lightly raced FEDERICA SOPHIA to do so.

LIGHT'S ON looks one of the more interesting runners at Ascot tonight in the Group 3. She ran ok in a handicap at Royal Ascot and then exploded next time out in a minor Listed event at Pontefract. If she can repeat that she can defeat the fave Indio Girl who is the class runner here, first up having run second in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo.