Coach Justin Longmuir

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Hes now got 3 years to execute his plan, which should mean by year 2024 we are top 4. If we win more than we lose next year, that’d be great, but it’s more about game development & continued improvement in our stoppage work, inside 50 entries & accuracy on goal.
There will be inconsistencies with our performances over the next 2 years as we integrate even more young players, but those young players are important to any finals success.
With the age demographic of our list I’d want to finish 6-10 next season, 4-7 2023 & top 4 2024. I dont think that’s unreasonable & any negative decisions on his future should be made during 2024.
For me anything better than that in the next 2 years will be a pleasant surprise.
Hang on, hasn't he club said three top 4 finishes and a flag by 2025? Inconsistent performances over the next two years and only worrying about game development might be a realist/pessimist assessment, but it's not the club's assessment
I had to read both of these posts again.

1st off, Bring back Drum wrote that Freo should be top 4 by 2024.

On the other hand Square Peg said the Freo Board wants 3 top 4 finishes and a flag by 2025.

Both of those aims would be hard to do but possible.

I can see Freo making 3 prelims between 2022-25. We would be lucky and fortunate to make one.

But to be realistic, I think going by history of certain teams in the past for examples.

I look at west coasts 2002-06 era how they built it up.

2002-04 made 3 Elim finals. 2003 was a wasted chance to them as they could of made top 6 or even top 4. That meant they should of won a final from 2002-4. The made a grand final in 2005 and won the flag in 2006. They also traded in players with finals wins from other clubs too.

Richmond's build up to the 2017 flag was interesting too. 2013-15, they made 3 Elim finals. You could make a case they should of won at least one of them vs Carlton in 2013 or Kangaroos in 2015.

tigers then missed out on finals in 2016 and won the flag in 2017.

Heres my opinion on what I think might happen. I think Freo will either finish 9th or 10th in 2022 or pinch 8th and get beaten in an Elim final.

make Elim finals in 2023-4 and get a finals win or 2 in that 2 year period. Then make top 4 in 2025-26 then drop.


i have always predicted Justin Longmuir will last around 5-7 years and will give us a 3-4 year finals run
 

Sully90

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People saying Lyon stagnated are ignoring the massive list turnover that was occurring in those years, the development of players was on the up and has aided Longmuir but he still can't get more wins on the board


Longmuir took over 4 years into a rebuild, Lyon "stagnated" while turning over the list in years 2 and 3
Of the 45 players on the list when Longmuir took over there are only 19 left. Of that 19, 9 had been around for 3 years or less (Ryan, Darcy, Logue, Brayshaw, Switkowski, Schultz, Sturt, Cox, Valente). The list that Longmuir took over was a hell of a lot less ready to go than the one Lyon had when he came in.
 
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People saying Lyon stagnated are ignoring the massive list turnover that was occurring in those years, the development of players was on the up and has aided Longmuir but he still can't get more wins on the board


Longmuir took over 4 years into a rebuild, Lyon "stagnated" while turning over the list in years 2 and 3
Lyon started a 'rebuild' with prime Fyfe, Mundy, Neale and Hill. He also had Walters, Weller, Blakely, Pearce, Hamling, Tucker, Taberner and Langdon.

Basically, Lyon started a rebuild with an elite midfield. All he had to do was find replacements forward, a few back and a ruck.

He botched it, had a 4 win season, players walked in droves, we hit the papers for all the wrong reasons and we lost over 4 million in revenue.

Letting players like DeBoer, Collins and Menegola leave for nothing was utter stupidity.

It was a disaster. There is no other way to describe it.

I'm glad we're where we are now, and not still under that cluster*.
 
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Based on your stats he had a 4 win improvement and then the same and a one win. Are you saying JL didn't have a one win improvement? I don't understand your point. Some posters are talking about the improvement at the club under JL. You mentioned it being on and off field. I simply stated going by wins and percentage we have been pretty much stagnant. Those are the stats.
No, those aren't the stats.

Under Lyon the club was a mess off field. The stats for this are clear. We lost over 4000 members and the club was in free fall. Another 4000 members leaving (if Lyon had stayed on) would have been disasterous. The current administration stopped that from happening (even in Covid affected years) and have gone a long way toward arresting this, but my guess is it will take 10 years to clean up the mess left by Rosich and Lyon.

10 wins is our most since 2015. And, since you like stats, It's 2 and a half times the amount we won under Lyon in 2016.

As i said - better on and off the field.
 

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Lyon started a 'rebuild' with prime Fyfe, Mundy, Neale and Hill. He also had Walters, Weller, Blakely, Pearce, Hamling, Tucker, Taberner and Langdon.

Basically, Lyon started a rebuild with an elite midfield. All he had to do was find replacements forward, a few back and a ruck.

He botched it, had a 4 win season, players walked in droves, we hit the papers for all the wrong reasons and we lost over 4 million in revenue.

Letting players like DeBoer, Collins and Menegola leave for nothing was utter stupidity.

It was a disaster. There is no other way to describe it.

I'm glad we're where we are now, and not still under that clusterfu**.


Yep, we've come a hell of a long way from 2016, 2017, 2018 thankfully. Chalk and cheese. We were going nowhere back then.
 

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I think it’s very important to acknowledge how important Ross Lyon was to putting our club on the map. He‘s not here anymore, so can we please move the fu** on.

When we're discussing our new coach it's inevitable that there will be comparisons and discussions about RTB unfortunately. But if anyone feels like venting about RTB there's a fit-for-purpose vent thread
 
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You can’t rebuild properly when you’re trying to get bums on 60 000 new seats in a stadium that hasn’t yet paid for itself. The trades in were awful in hindsight but I can understand the club doing so.
In terms of a platform for sustained success there’s no comparison between now and then. The club is healthy and happy and our youth are driven by love for the club and coach.
 
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I think it’s very important to acknowledge how important Ross Lyon was to putting our club on the map. He‘s not here anymore, so can we please move the fu** on.
Yep - I've added my two bobs. Happy to move on.

There does seem to be a certain group who are death-riding Longmuir due to some misguided loyalty to Lyon. JLo had nothing to do with the sacking of Lyon -I hope they can get past it.
 

poshman

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No, those aren't the stats.

Under Lyon the club was a mess off field. The stats for this are clear. We lost over 4000 members and the club was in free fall. Another 4000 members leaving (if Lyon had stayed on) would have been disasterous. The current administration stopped that from happening (even in Covid affected years) and have gone a long way toward arresting this, but my guess is it will take 10 years to clean up the mess left by Rosich and Lyon.

10 wins is our most since 2015. And, since you like stats, It's 2 and a half times the amount we won under Lyon in 2016.

As i said - better on and off the field.

You are cherry picking again. 10 wins is also way less than we had in 15, 14 and 13. There is no point in taking the best Lyon years and comparing them to JL. Doing so is ridiculous. The same can be true of taking the worst season under ross and not going from the years after when he made a strong improvement.

A true comparison is how much have we improved from the year before to the years JL has been in charge. Otherwise we will go off the 13 year or 15 year and JL will be behind until he gets the same results. If it is so clear JL has brought improvement onfield which is what I am discussing, you wouldn't need to bring up his worst season and off field to support your fragile argument.

I never challenged off field. Although to say we were in free fall is laughable. Also to say that we need 10 years to recover is equally laughable. By what financial or other metric.

Either way let us stay onfield. From Lyons last season here, JL and the team have maybe improved marginally... maybe. It would be fair to say that so far we have stagnated. Now going from his last season here, and sticking to the discussion, how is that incorrect?

Ready for you to once again bring up the first season of the rebuild...
 

poshman

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Yep - I've added my two bobs. Happy to move on.

There does seem to be a certain group who are death-riding Longmuir due to some misguided loyalty to Lyon. JLo had nothing to do with the sacking of Lyon -I hope they can get past it.

this is your problem - I am not death riding JL. I want the club to succeed. If JL fails it will mean we lose Fyfe and Walters without success, it will also mean another 3 -5 years of crap average or below play.

Two things can be true at the same time. I want JL to win the flag, I want him to be the best coach we have ever had. And... So far on the field we have not really improved in the two seasons he has been in charge. Going by that metric it is possible an extension was early. That isn't even anti JL.

Here we go though... cherry pick 2016 and ignore 17, 18 and 19 to make your point about on field improvement.
 

poshman

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So, have we improved or stagnated?

you're all over the shop.

Anyway, I've already explained it twice. Time to move on.
Ah so you can't provide evidence of on field improvement since JL took over. Thank you we are on the same page.

We have not improved since he took over. We have stagnated.

You made the claim that the extension was justified because of the off field and on field improvement. I didn't argue off field.

All I am asking is that you clearly point out the on field improvement.

Others have said they approve due to the vibe around the club, I can understand that. Or that they like JL better. I can understand that as well.

You made the claim. I am asking for you to back it up.
 

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You are cherry picking again. 10 wins is also way less than we had in 15, 14 and 13. There is no point in taking the best Lyon years and comparing them to JL. Doing so is ridiculous. The same can be true of taking the worst season under ross and not going from the years after when he made a strong improvement.

A true comparison is how much have we improved from the year before to the years JL has been in charge. Otherwise we will go off the 13 year or 15 year and JL will be behind until he gets the same results. If it is so clear JL has brought improvement onfield which is what I am discussing, you wouldn't need to bring up his worst season and off field to support your fragile argument.

I never challenged off field. Although to say we were in free fall is laughable. Also to say that we need 10 years to recover is equally laughable. By what financial or other metric.

Either way let us stay onfield. From Lyons last season here, JL and the team have maybe improved marginally... maybe. It would be fair to say that so far we have stagnated. Now going from his last season here, and sticking to the discussion, how is that incorrect?

Ready for you to once again bring up the first season of the rebuild...
To be fair to JLo, he had a vastly inexperienced side to the side Lyon inherited. We were ready to pop when he started in 2012. Harvey got us to the same spot in 2010 (6th after 22 games) so the foundations were there. The recruiting and development after Lyon started was poor thus the post 2016-2018 drop off and its taken us a few years to rebuild the list with good trading and drafting. If there is no improvement on this year in 22 and 23, then Jlo is not the man for the job.
 

Sully90

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You are cherry picking again. 10 wins is also way less than we had in 15, 14 and 13. There is no point in taking the best Lyon years and comparing them to JL. Doing so is ridiculous. The same can be true of taking the worst season under ross and not going from the years after when he made a strong improvement.

A true comparison is how much have we improved from the year before to the years JL has been in charge. Otherwise we will go off the 13 year or 15 year and JL will be behind until he gets the same results. If it is so clear JL has brought improvement onfield which is what I am discussing, you wouldn't need to bring up his worst season and off field to support your fragile argument.

I never challenged off field. Although to say we were in free fall is laughable. Also to say that we need 10 years to recover is equally laughable. By what financial or other metric.

Either way let us stay onfield. From Lyons last season here, JL and the team have maybe improved marginally... maybe. It would be fair to say that so far we have stagnated. Now going from his last season here, and sticking to the discussion, how is that incorrect?

Ready for you to once again bring up the first season of the rebuild...
It's not fair to say that we've stagnated when half the list has been turned over since Longmuir took over.
 
Personally think most of these arguments are correct, just framed differently.
- We've grown marginally on field (if at all)
- Off field we are far better off, the vibe of the place in Lyon's last few years was just not conducive to success
- The vibe of the place now is terrific
- JL has not really accomplished anything tangible yet
- Lyon is the greatest coach we've had and given his impact on the club and becoming relevant, will only be passed by one who wins our first flag IMO.

I've said on here I wasnt keen on extending but I do agree with the idea that having him out of contract would have been an unneeded distraction. Additionally, history says 3 years is never enough time to definitively say whether a new coach is any good or not - especially when the club is midway through a complete list turnover. So I've come around and think the extension is correct. Heads will roll if nothing is achieved by 2024 though (need to be contending), and it wont just be JL.
 
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Ah so you can't provide evidence of on field improvement since JL took over. Thank you we are on the same page.

We have not improved since he took over. We have stagnated.

You made the claim that the extension was justified because of the off field and on field improvement. I didn't argue off field.

All I am asking is that you clearly point out the on field improvement.

Others have said they approve due to the vibe around the club, I can understand that. Or that they like JL better. I can understand that as well.

You made the claim. I am asking for you to back it up.
10 wins, 11th place.

Now, can you see it?
 

poshman

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Personally think most of these arguments are correct, just framed differently.
- We've grown marginally on field (if at all)
- Off field we are far better off, the vibe of the place in Lyon's last few years was just not conducive to success
- The vibe of the place now is terrific
- JL has not really accomplished anything tangible yet
- Lyon is the greatest coach we've had and given his impact on the club and becoming relevant, will only be passed by one who wins our first flag IMO.

I've said on here I wasnt keen on extending but I dont think the idea that having him out of contract would have been an unneeded distraction. Additionally, history says 3 years is never enough time to definitively say whether a new coach is any good or not - especially when the club is midway through a complete list turnover. So I've come around and think the extension is correct. Heads will role if nothing is achieved by 2024 though (need to be contending), and it wont just be JL.

Exactly - On field there has been almost nothing. Off field we seem a far happier place.

Agree with all of that. And still want JL to crush it otherwise it will be a long three years ahead.
 

poshman

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It's not fair to say that we've stagnated when half the list has been turned over since Longmuir took over.

How much of the list was turned over in 16, 17, 18 and 19? There was significant turnover through the draft and trades. That has continued but I think it is fair to say that is something both coaches dealt with. Happy to be proven wrong here, I may be operating from assumption. We have lost some experience but also traded in Aish and Acres. Wilson has stayed so has Hamling.

It was very clear on here from the many who would fill game threads before the end of the first quarter with their sack lyon posts that we weren't winning enough. We have since won a total of one more game and lowered percentage and people are pointing to improvement as a reason for the extension.

In short I agree with Snuff on this, although I would have waited until the mid point of the year to extend. That isn't a strong opinion though.

Has anyone got the final word on paying out coaches contracts if they are let go early? I haven't been able to find a source to confirm or otherwise.
 
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See now we are getting somewhere. So two seasons to get a one win improvement and lower percentage was the bar for an extension. Thank you.
I didn't say anything about the extension.

This is what you wrote: "All I am asking is that you clearly point out the on field improvement"

I did that. You seem to be now talking about something else, so I'll leave you to it.
 

poshman

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To be fair to JLo, he had a vastly inexperienced side to the side Lyon inherited. We were ready to pop when he started in 2012. Harvey got us to the same spot in 2010 (6th after 22 games) so the foundations were there. The recruiting and development after Lyon started was poor thus the post 2016-2018 drop off and its taken us a few years to rebuild the list with good trading and drafting. If there is no improvement on this year in 22 and 23, then Jlo is not the man for the job.

I agree with all of that. The only part I was challenging was the notion that we had improved on field in a manner that deserves an extension.

I have argued many times that Lyon inherited a team with at least one A grade player in each part of the ground. Longmuir had three to four and two of those were/are perennially injured which also hurt Lyon.

Having said all that - the only thing I struggle with is the notion we have improved on field since 19. JL himself has said it is time they no longer accept mediocrity. Which would mean that at a minimum it is fair to believe he feels the team has been mediocre since he has been in charge. Which going on win/loss is fair.

I don't understand why people see this as an attack on JL. I will say it again... I hope we achieve the 5 year plan and will cheer the team on rabidly (with the odd mental health gardening break) even if they don't achieve it.
 
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