Opinion KENs the man to take us to our next FLAG!

[Pappagallo]

Injuries have wrecked many a season. Look at Adelaide - their injury list in 2014 was catastrophic. The following players didn't suit up in the first four rounds for them: Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch, Nathan Van Berlol (not a spelling mistake), Andy Otten, Ricky Henderson and Richard Douglas. That's a lot of talent to be left on the sidelines. If they had all those guys when we played that first Showdown, would we have won? **** yes we would have won, but it would have been much closer.

Lo and behold, we have injuries/suspensions this year - Patrick Ryder, Angus Monfries, Jay Schulz, Alipate Carlile and Matthew White miss most, if not all of the season - and we are just as bad...except by not having a competent ruck (even with Lobbe) we are actually worse because the ruck is the spark that drives the engine of the midfield - immaterial to the grand scheme of the actual game plan, but vital in its execution.

We'll be 100x better next year - and with a nice and shiny Pick 9/10 to play with - a Bontampelli type would be perfect.

Carlile and Schulz are not going to play a big part in 2017 anyway, if at all, and Monfries is probably 50/50 at best. We can't rely on these guys to make us 100x better next year.

Realistically we're only missing Ryder, Hombsch and White from next year's best 22. Maybe Jonas too, depending on form.

Is that enough?

 

[Papa G]

Carlile and Schulz are not going to play a big part in 2017 anyway, if at all, and Monfries is probably 50/50 at best. We can't rely on these guys to make us 100x better next year.

Realistically we're only missing Ryder, Hombsch and White from next year's best 22. Maybe Jonas too, depending on form.

Is that enough?

Nup

 

[Malibu#27]

Carlile and Schulz are not going to play a big part in 2017 anyway, if at all, and Monfries is probably 50/50 at best. We can't rely on these guys to make us 100x better next year.

Realistically we're only missing Ryder, Hombsch and White from next year's best 22. Maybe Jonas too, depending on form.

Is that enough?

That's 'right now'. Take a look at some of our earlier games, when season momentum is built (There were a couple were our top end outs were comparable to Essendon).
Personally I think taking into account injuries and the like this year has been an improvement over last year.

 

[rogerjames]

He's a great coach with a great assistant around him, we are missing the Richo or Walsh type.

The problem is great assistants don't stay as assistants as we have seen so therefore that model is unsustainable

 

[rogerjames]

Nah i just recognize any chance you get to sink the boots into Young you take it's plain as day to anyone that's read the spew you post on players you have no time for.

The bolded is a typical aggressive reponse from you.. water, duck, back

Young has been very good but has dropped off big time in the last 3 weeks. I hope that doesn't continue

 

[rogerjames]

i cant believe Boak goes through 2 years of sub performances team wise and on-one questions his captaincy, im not talking about his playing performance, im talking about the inability of the team to play 4 quarters and the pattern of losing games to lesser team. From the outside looking in it seems Boak is a great leader by example but doesnt demand the same from his players because its not in his nature to step on toes both at a training level and on-field during games

A number of us have questioned his leadership over the last 2 seasons

 

[rogerjames]

Carlile and Schulz are not going to play a big part in 2017 anyway, if at all, and Monfries is probably 50/50 at best. We can't rely on these guys to make us 100x better next year.

Realistically we're only missing Ryder, Hombsch and White from next year's best 22. Maybe Jonas too, depending on form.

Is that enough?

Wouldn't be relying on White, he missed quite a few games in the last 2 seasons and seems very injury prone

 

[rogerjames]

And yet, despite all of these problems, we still regularly put ourselves into positions to win games of football against all opposition. Guess what our record is in games decided by 22 points or less this year? 0-6. Guess when the last time we lost a game by more than 22 points was? Round 5.

These stats of course come hot on the heels of losing 5 games by 10 points or less last year and, unbelievably, 6 games by 10 points or less in 2014 when we played in a preliminary final.

What it all comes back to for me is a lack of leadership. We have a group of senior players who have been at the club for a decade or near enough to a decade. They have been a part of a large amount of failure with only a small amount of success in that time. Many of them are regarded in our top handful of players. But they don't step up when we need them to because they just don't have it - you know, the it that Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis have in spades. Most of the good teams have strong senior leadership. We don't. More often than not, it is actually left to players like Ollie Wines, Jasper Pittard and, lately and disgracefully, Darcy Byrne-Jones to lead by example at the crunch moments.

As I have posted before, I would seriously entertain trades for everyone on the list over 27 bar Paddy Ryder. Hinkley needs to regenerate the list and he needs to do it through youth and capitalise on a good group of young leaders that he already has at the club. If he continues to put his faith in the same core of senior players that have been letting us down for a decade, he will be out the door within 12 months. It's that simple really.

Spot on but I don't include Robbie in this. He has led from the front for several seasons and we are way too reliant on him. The other midfielders have been ordinary for 2 seasons and I'm very pissed about it

 

[1954]

Carlile and Schulz are not going to play a big part in 2017 anyway, if at all, and Monfries is probably 50/50 at best. We can't rely on these guys to make us 100x better next year.

Realistically we're only missing Ryder, Hombsch and White from next year's best 22. Maybe Jonas too, depending on form.

Is that enough?

An assistant coach with some genuine tactical nous may improve things somewhat ( particularly for the midfield ), but we have to find one first, plus I doubt even with all the players named above available we would be any better than a 6th - 8th team, and obviously top 4 is required to be a real chance to challenge for a flag.

 

[PJ Power]

Our list needs some real work if we are to become a sustainable top 4 side.
Midfield, ruck, key forward posts all need to be addressed robustly over the next 3y.

 

[Janus]

Carlile and Schulz are not going to play a big part in 2017 anyway, if at all, and Monfries is probably 50/50 at best. We can't rely on these guys to make us 100x better next year.

Realistically we're only missing Ryder, Hombsch and White from next year's best 22. Maybe Jonas too, depending on form.

Is that enough?

Carlile is the same age Lake was when he was traded to Hawthorn. Let that sink in for a minute. Now I know Lake was AA for the Dogs, and they aren't the same level, but Lake got better at Hawthorn, even after the Dogs traded him for next to nothing because he was injured. There's nothing to say Carlile can't get better too, or at least recapture his 2014 form with a good run at it.

Monfries is an integral and vital part of the side - the defensive forward that can negate the oppositions main playmaker out of defense, giving our midfield time to setup and organise effectively. The fact that we decided to pull Boak out of the midfield and put him in the role as cover just goes to show how important it is.

I've already explained countless times what White brings to the table in terms of not allowing defenders to push heavily towards the side of the ground the ball is on.

Schulz I agree with, though - Young has made him redundant. I'd still give him a baseline contract though.

People say "Well we had these guys in 2015" but that year was just a * up. The symptoms might be the same but the cause is entirely different - I'm not saying there hasn't been the same problems with attitude and effort, but I can understand it to some extent. At the start it was our defense - remember when people were giving Bassett s**t for that? Then as the year wore on our lack of a top line ruck got exposed against the sides that did have one.

I think we need to keep building the list, and some aggression on the trade table is needed, but I wouldn't throw away players for peanuts thinking we are five years from a flag.

 

[Pappagallo]

Carlile is the same age Lake was when he was traded to Hawthorn. Let that sink in for a minute. Now I know Lake was AA for the Dogs, and they aren't the same level, but Lake got better at Hawthorn, even after the Dogs traded him for next to nothing because he was injured. There's nothing to say Carlile can't get better too, or at least recapture his 2014 form with a good run at it.

Monfries is an integral and vital part of the side - the defensive forward that can negate the oppositions main playmaker out of defense, giving our midfield time to setup and organise effectively. The fact that we decided to pull Boak out of the midfield and put him in the role as cover just goes to show how important it is.

I've already explained countless times what White brings to the table in terms of not allowing defenders to push heavily towards the side of the ground the ball is on.

Schulz I agree with, though - Young has made him redundant. I'd still give him a baseline contract though.

People say "Well we had these guys in 2015" but that year was just a **** up. The symptoms might be the same but the cause is entirely different - I'm not saying there hasn't been the same problems with attitude and effort, but I can understand it to some extent. At the start it was our defense - remember when people were giving Bassett s**t for that? Then as the year wore on our lack of a top line ruck got exposed against the sides that did have one.

I think we need to keep building the list, and some aggression on the trade table is needed, but I wouldn't throw away players for peanuts thinking we are five years from a flag.

No arguments with White from me, I said he was best 22.

With regards to Carlile it's pointless comparing him (or anyone else for that matter) to different players when it comes to age, it's one of those things that affects everyone differently and he may go downhill sooner. I'm more going on recent form, which hasn't been good when he hasn't been injured, and if they're both available I'd rather go with Austin to be honest. But maybe this extended break will help refresh him and he'll bounce back, who knows, but I'm not betting on it.

I agree that Monfries plays an important role but once again it depends on if he's up to it, that's why I put him down as a 50/50. His inability to kick 40m last year was a bit concerning and he did seem a little slower too, so like Carlile it'll be interesting to see if the break has helped or hindered him. A good Gus is a valuable addition though.

I don't think were 5 years from a flag, but we should always be looking for ways to improve the squad. The difference between sides 4-10 is so small it should probably be measured in goals instead of games. A goal or two here and there and we're on 12 wins instead of 8, so we just need to find that difference somewhere.

Part of it will be the guys coming back, I don't think it's enough just yet, but a good trade and a solid pick up in the draft might do it. Who knows.

But I agree we're not as far away as it feels right now.

 

[JUSTWORK]

An assistant coach with some genuine tactical nous may improve things somewhat ( particularly for the midfield ), but we have to find one first, plus I doubt even with all the players named above available we would be any better than a 6th - 8th team, and obviously top 4 is required to be a real chance to challenge for a flag.

with consistent effort a 4 quarter performance playing to the standard capable of they are certainly good enough, but we've not seen that since 2014, even last year we saw glimpses of it. Notably the twice we played the hawks and again against Sydney in Sydney. Clearly we don't have a coaching group capable of extracting that from this group.

That then becomes problem 1 between now and Rnd 1 2017 are newt year will be 15/16 all over again.

Secondly, actions have consequences (kens press conferance "you get what you deserve is appropriate here) certain key players need to go to remind the group playing AFL isn't a given and that if you're not taking the club forward you can leave. Id be looking very heavily at the players who where upset by Kochie calling them a disgrace earlier in the year (WHICH THEY 100% WHERE) if you can't put your hand up after those performances and say "yes we where a disgrace and no one is more upset then we are" if they just want to be wrapped up in cotton wool that is a big reason for are not efforts.bring in players to rejuvenate the list (get some if the 13/14 spark back).

 

[OneGreatClub]

And yet with reasonably good availability last year we still missed the finals and lost to the bottom two teams. Without a doubt we have been hamstrung by injuries and suspensions this year, but they are only one of many issues. And besides, there is no guarantee whatsoever of getting a better run with injuries next season (see Gold Coast Suns).

The issue this year is we had no chance to bed in our structures with a very unsettled team and all the changes we perceived would occur due to a change in rotations. No chance to build any confidence.

 

[Zakk Wylde]

I'm still bullish on our list.... It certainly needs some tweaking, and some more class, both onand off the field, but I honestly believe we're not that far away.

A lot of luck goes with success in this comp too.

 

[Magus]

Boak needs to get back to his best somehow. Maybe handing over the captaincy would be for the best if it meant he could focus solely on his own game. We might be a tad light on for options though.

Gray - too quiet
Hartlett - too flaky
Ebert - has the guts but skills let him down too much to lead by example
Wines - too young, too much on his plate just yet
Pittard - maybe

Trengove would be my pick. Passionate, outgoing, aggressive, leads from the front.

 

[TeeKray]

Our best 22 looks good on paper. Certainly magnet for magnet it is as good as several top 8 teams. But there is a reason we have missed finals 2 years in a row. Remember, we haven't lost by more than 22 points since round 5, but we've lost all 6 games decided by that margin or less.

What that indicates is that, even despite injuries/suspension/perceived lack of quality, we still put ourselves into positions to win games nearly every week. No other bottom 10 team does this! It's a long term pattern across three years and it illustrates that we are good enough to compete strongly but lack leadership and mental fortitude in the crunch moments. So the question then becomes if you are good enough to get in winning positions but not good enough to actually win, are you really good enough at all?

 

[Papa G]

Our best 22 looks good on paper. Certainly magnet for magnet it is as good as several top 8 teams. But there is reason we have missed finals 2 years in a row. Remember, we haven't lost by more than 22 points since round 5, but we've lost all 6 games decided by that margin or less.

What that indicates is that, even despite injuries/suspension/perceived lack of quality, we still put ourselves into positions to win games nearly every week. No other bottom 10 team does this! It's a long term pattern across three years and it illustrates that we are good enough but lack leadership and mental fortitude in the crunch moments. So the question then becomes if you are good enough to get in winning positions but not good enough to actually win, are you really good enough at all?

In 2014 we had that extra fitness or at least belief we had the fitness, to get us over the line more often than not in these situations. That last quarter fitness advantage (either real or perceived) has since evaporated and we are now a middle of the road team. Sure injuries have played a part, but I think we are mentally soft, the coach is a bit of a one trick pony and I think we are still a couple of A graders short of a premiership side.

 

[Forzaport]

In 2014 we had that extra fitness or at least belief we had the fitness, to get us over the line more often than not in these situations. That last quarter fitness advantage (either real or perceived) has since evaporated and we are now a middle of the road team. Sure injuries have played a part, but I think we are mentally soft, the coach is a bit of a one trick pony and I think we are still a couple of A graders short of a premiership side.

This year we totally stuffed up our set-ups early on then had clear weaknesses in our selected 22 that have been exploited by opposition teams. Our 5th and 6th mids have been poor but at the same time we've pushed Boak up forward and Hartlett down back. It's been a patchwork 22 almost all year. We've also had 2 incidents where players returning from long lay-offs get soft tissue injuries. I'm suspicious White also suffered a set back although there was no official word. We've had many more soft tissue injuries than is normal since Burgess returned. Many things to fix heading into 2017.

 

[Janus]

According to Mr.Squiggle, Port Adelaide is 8th in line in terms of winning a flag - even though our predicted regular season finish is 10th. The difference between us and Hawthorn is 26.7 points, whereas between us and Collingwood/Melbourne/St.Kilda is over 18.6 points. You know what that tells me? It tells me that we are better than most, but not as good as the best - exactly where a side hit by injuries to key personnel and that needs one or two more top line players through the midfield (when you're playing Kane Mitchell it shows where you are at in that regard) should be.

You don't buy that? Look at 2015.

That's right - the top five teams in 2015 in terms of the ability to win a flag - Hawthorn, West Coast, Adelaide, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne - would be rated as a better chance of winning the flag than the 2016 top team (Hawthorn). When I say this is a transition season, it's backed up by statistical evidence. Hawthorn (-63.5), Richmond (-46.6), West Coast (-44.7), Fremantle (-41.6), Port Adelaide (-29.2), Essendon (-27.1), North Melbourne (-24.6), Western Bulldogs (-22.1), Sydney (-17.4), Brisbane (-10.7), Collingwood (-10.0), Adelaide (-8.0) and Gold Coast (-5.0) all have regressed. You know what the common denominator between all those sides is? Injuries/suspensions/players leaving and/or older players that have fallen off the cliff. Some clubs, like Brisbane, Collingwood, Adelaide and Gold Coast didn't drop as far because either they couldn't get any worse or the remaining players managed to pick up the slack enough without being too affected by the drop in rotations. But for the majority, it has affected their performance badly.

Conversely, sides that had injuries in 2015 but got those players back, or boosted their list through the draft/trades? GWS (+30.1), Melbourne (+15), St.Kilda (+7.1), Geelong (+3.3), Carlton (+1.3).

So if you were going to do a list of most improved to most regressed between 2015/2016, purely on comparative performance, it would look like this:

Teams that have improved performance from 2015

1. GWS (natural improvement, regained key players) - 4 (+8)
2. Melbourne (added top end talent, natural improvement) - 11 (+6)
3. St. Kilda (natural improvement, suffered suspension) - 12 (+3)
4. Geelong (added key players, regained players) - 5 (+5)
5. Carlton (new coach, natural improvement) - 16 (+2)

Teams that have maintained performance from 2015

6. Gold Coast (key players missing for the year) - 15 (-2)
7. Adelaide (new coach, lost key player) - 2 (+1)
8. Collingwood (natural improvement, injuries, players aging) - 10 (+1)
9. Brisbane (poor list management) - 17 (-1)
10. Sydney (regained key players, added top end talent, suffered injuries, players aging) - 6 (-)
11. Western Bulldogs (regained players, suffered injuries/suspensions) 9 (-1)
12. North Melbourne (suffered injuries, players aging) 5 (-2)

Teams that have decreased performance from 2015

13. Essendon (suffered suspensions) 18 (-4)
14. Port Adelaide (added key players, suffered injuries/suspensions) 8 (-4)
15. Fremantle (suffered injuries/suspensions) 14 (-5)
16. West Coast (peaked last year) 3 (-1)
17. Richmond (peaked last year, players aging) 13 (-6)
18. Hawthorn (players aging) 1 (-)

Now, I don't know about you, but when your comparative performance between 2015 and 2016 has been worse than a side that has had to play with top up players for the year, it might be something to do with the players you are missing rather than everyone simply getting better. Only Richmond and Fremantle have dropped harder, with Essendon at the same level as us.

So when we finish 9th or 10th this year, we've done so playing far worse than even last year due to the factors I've suggested. And if you want to know where we were in 2014:

That's the level we will (not may, will) be at when we get Ryder, White, Hombsch, Carlile and Monfries back into the side, with Trengove supporting Ryder in the ruck. Add pick 9 or 10, and we will be laughing. No other side has the scope for improvement that we have when we play our best football.

P.S You can also see why I don't rate Adelaide - in three years they haven't improved their actual performance much at all - it's just that other sides have sunk to their level. Which is why Dangerfield bailed - he knew they were never going to win a flag after the Tippett debacle.

 

[edgie]

What is this mythical world where flags are won based on what players are due to return that completely overrides how good a team - A TEAM - actually plays football? We haven't played our best football since ANZAC Round last year.

inb4 A-Team reference.

 

[Steve Dore]

So the length of your flagpole does matter.

 

[edgie]

So the length of your flagpole does matter.

I think it is how you use it

 

[Papa G]

What is this mythical world where flags are won based on what players are due to return that completely overrides who good a team - A TEAM - actually plays football? We haven't played our best football since ANZAC Round last year.

Janus World, Janus World, Party Time Excellent!

 

[Janus]

Two people go to the doctor complaining of a headache. One was caused by hitting their head riding their skateboard without a helmet. The other ends up being a brain tumor.

That's the difference between 2015 and 2016. The symptoms might be the same, but the cause is completely different.

Why do you think that so many coaches that beat us at AO calls it the best win of their season? Because it's like beating up on Superman with kryptonite gloves - sure, they're taking advantage of us when we are s**t, but that's just fundamental strategy - exploit weakness while protecting your own.

I vacillate between wanting to make finals in spite of our injuries and form because I really believe we could make a difference this year and not wanting to make them just to make up the numbers without a dominant ruck so we can get another elite mid that will put us into the rarefied air of a Geelong/Hawthorn like dynasty, the same way those clubs got players like Selwood and Rioli before they pushed for their flags.