swansfan51
Brownlow Medallist
- Jun 3, 2007
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By popular demand (yes, 2 people counts as popular demand Sir Swans ) Statistics are provided WITHOUT CONCLUSIONS, so people can make their own. Feel free to unpick and argue any of the assumptions, that's what makes for interesting discussion. Read the notes first because they likely answer most questions.
We analyse the performance of all of our players and coaches relative to their competition across the league, I thought it would be interesting to do the same with our recruiter.
NOTES
2004 (Brisbane)
Pick 18 - Cameron Wood (64 games - including all clubs)
Pick 27 - Patrick Garner (0 games)
Pick 45 - Justin Sherman (138 games including Bulldogs)
Pick 50 - Jayden Attard (25 games)
Pick 64 - Luke Forsyth (0 games)
Average - 45.4
Recruiter average - 62.52
Winner - Average Recruiter by 17.12
Rookie 15 - Patrick Baird (5 games)
Rookie 60 - Josh Drummond (94 games)
Rookie 62 - Marcus Allan (5 games)
Rookie 64 - William Hamill (3 games)
Rookie 65 - Marty Pask (8 games)
Rookie 66 - Scott Harding (50 games)
Average - 27.5
Recruiter average - 35.61
Winner - Average Recruiter by 8.11
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2005 (Brisbane)
Pick 9 - Mitch Clark (97 games - including Melbourne)
Pick 25 - Wayde Mills (16 games)
Pick 41 - Rhan Hooper (54 games)
Pick 56 - Joel Patfull (166 games)
Average - 83.25
Recruiter average - 62.27
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 21.02
Rookie 6 - Jason Roe (50 games)
Rookie 22 - Leonard Clark (0 games)
Rookie 37 - Luke Forsyth (0 games)
Rookie 49 - Cheynee Stiller (100 games)
Average - 37.5
Recruiter average - 27.81
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.69
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2006 (Adelaide)
Pick 14 - James Sellar (44 games - counted games for all clubs)
Pick 32 - Kurt Tippett (116 games - counted games for all clubs)
Pick 48 - David Mackay (109 games)
Pick 64 - Nick Gill (17 games)
Pick 78 - Bryce Campbell (8 games)
Average - 58.8
Recruiter average - 57.56
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 1.24
Rookie 14 - Andrew McIntyre (0 games)
Rookie 29 - James Turner (0 games)
Rookie 43 - Rhys Archard (0 games)
Rookie 54 - Greg Gallman (0 games)
Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 24.65 games
Winner - Average Recruiter by 24.65
_______________________________
2007 (Sydney)
Pick 11 - Patrick Veszpremi (23 games)
Pick 26 - Brett Meredith (16 games)
Average - 19.5
Recruiter average - 54.32
Winner - Average Recruiter by 34.82
Rookie 10 - Matthew O'Dwyer (7 games)
Rookie 26 - Brendan Murphy (0 games)
Rookie 41 - Jake Orreal (0 games)
Rookie 53 - Matthew Beckmans (0 games)
Rookie 58 - Aaron Bruce (0 games)
Rookie 61 - Dean Terlich (24 games - 0 for Sydney)
Average - 5.17 (including Terlich's career after being delisted)
Recruiter average - 15.02
Winner - Average Recruiter by 9.85
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2008 (Sydney)
Pick 12 - Lewis Johnston (10 games - 2 for Sydney)
Pick 30 - Daniel Hannebery (105 games)
Pick 61 - Campbell Heath (14 games - 2 for Sydney)
Average - 43 (including all games played by Lewis Johnston and Campbell Heath after being traded)
Recruiter average - 42.92 (excluding Tom Rockliff, Liam Jurrah from the PSD)
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 0.08
Rookie 12 - Kristin Thornton (8 games)
Rookie 28 - Taylor Gilchrist (0 games)
Rookie 43 - Kyle Coney (0 games)
Rookie 57 - Mike Pyke (75 games)
Average - 20.75
Recruiter average - 19.27
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 1.48
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2009 (Sydney)
Pick 6 - Gary Rohan (31 games)
Pick 14 - Lewis Jetta (82 games)
Pick 38 - Sam Reid (58 games)
Pick 54 - Byron Sumner (1 game)
Pick 55 - Trent Dennis-Lane (28 games - 19 for Sydney)
Average - 40
Recruiter average - 30.07
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.93
Rookie 10 - Henry Playfair (5 games, previously played 11 at Sydney after being traded from Geelong. Those 11 games excluded due to being the product of a trade)
Rookie 63 - Chris McKaigue (0 games)
Rookie 71 - Nathan Gordon (5 games - 2 for Sydney)
Rookie 75 - Dylan McNeil (0 games)
Average - 2.5 (including Nathan Gordon's games after being delisted)
Recruiter average - 13.60
Winner - Average Recruiter by 11.1
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2010 (Sydney) - National draft data highly contaminated due to GC concessions, 3 father son picks, teams having to draft with extremely late picks, 17yo players removed from draft etc
Pick 21 - Jed Lamb (13 games - 12 for Sydney)
Pick 40 - Luke Parker (61 games)
Pick 57 - Alex Johnson (45 games)
Pick 73 - Matthew Spangher (12 games - 6 for Sydney)
Average - 32.75
Recruiter average - 23.56
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.19
Rookie 21 - Max Otten (0 games)
Rookie 38 - Ben Haren (0 games)
Rookie 88 - Eugene Krueger (0 games)
Average - 0
Recruiter average - 7.35
Winner - Average Recruiter by 7.35
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2011 (Sydney) - Data somewhat contaminated due to GWS concessions, 3 father/son picks, 17yo players out of pool
Pick 43 - Jordan Lockyer (0 games)
Pick 61 - Alex Brown (0 games)
Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 13.08
Winner - Average Recruiter by 13.08
Rookie 13 - Shane Biggs (3 games)
Rookie 31 - Campbell Heath (0 further games for Sydney)
Rookie 93 - Harry Cunningham (10 games)
Rookie 95 - Jack Lynch (0 games)
Average - 3.25 (4.33 if excluding Heath)
Recruiter average - 5.95
Winner - Average Recruiter by 2.7 (1.62 if excluding Heath)
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2012 (Sydney) Still a few concessions and 3 father/son picks
Pick 22 - Dean Towers (0 games)
Pick 44 - Harrison Marsh (0 games)
Pick 46 - Tim Membrey (0 games)
Pick 64 - Matthew Dick (0 games)
Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 7.28
Winner - Average Recruiter by 7.28
Rookie 16 - Jake Lloyd (0 games)
Rookie 29 - Xavier Richards (1 game)
Rookie 37 - Dane Rampe (27 games)
Rookie 50 - Daniel Robinson (0 games)
Rookie 57 - Brandon Jack (9 games)
Rookie 58 - Sam Naismith (0 games)
Average - 6.17
Recruiter average - 2.62
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 3.55
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We analyse the performance of all of our players and coaches relative to their competition across the league, I thought it would be interesting to do the same with our recruiter.
NOTES
- The "Average Recruiter" is the average pick from each draft. In other words, the result that would occur if a computer program or trained monkey selected random drafted players from a hat, and the results were averaged out.
- Games played are as of 18/04/2014 (so obviously will have increased across the board now)
- All numbers are rounded to 2 decimal places
- All shenanigans players in the National Draft have been excluded from all clubs (father sons like Ablett/Hawkins/Kennedy/Mitchell, scholarship players like Walker/Bird, international players, minidraft players)
- Shenanigans players in the Rookie Draft have been left in for convenience/laziness (this helps Beatson out due to Mike Pyke, but likely balances out across the board over time)
- For clarity: Shenanigans players are ones that were not able to be selected fairly, at market value, by whichever club was willing to use the earliest draft pick
- Figures given are the average for all players down to the very worst pick.
- This only considers drafting, not trading. However I have included all games played by Beatson's draftees at other clubs if they were delisted or traded away. This helps to balance concerns about players not getting games for strong clubs, as we still count their games later.
- I have excluded the pre-season draft (due to convenience/laziness). This doesn't have many players in it, but removing it generally benefits Beatson as he has not used the PSD much. 2008 was the main year it had an impact (Rockliff, Jurrah etc)
- Injuries/suspensions have not been considered at all, they affect all players and generally even out when using a sample size of the entire draft. For example Rohan has had a serious injury, other players from his draft to have lost major time to injuries include Morabito, Vardy, Trengove, Moore, Talia etc etc)
- Obviously this is only a quantitative analysis, you can debate about quality vs quantity of games.
2004 (Brisbane)
Pick 18 - Cameron Wood (64 games - including all clubs)
Pick 27 - Patrick Garner (0 games)
Pick 45 - Justin Sherman (138 games including Bulldogs)
Pick 50 - Jayden Attard (25 games)
Pick 64 - Luke Forsyth (0 games)
Average - 45.4
Recruiter average - 62.52
Winner - Average Recruiter by 17.12
Rookie 15 - Patrick Baird (5 games)
Rookie 60 - Josh Drummond (94 games)
Rookie 62 - Marcus Allan (5 games)
Rookie 64 - William Hamill (3 games)
Rookie 65 - Marty Pask (8 games)
Rookie 66 - Scott Harding (50 games)
Average - 27.5
Recruiter average - 35.61
Winner - Average Recruiter by 8.11
________________________________
2005 (Brisbane)
Pick 9 - Mitch Clark (97 games - including Melbourne)
Pick 25 - Wayde Mills (16 games)
Pick 41 - Rhan Hooper (54 games)
Pick 56 - Joel Patfull (166 games)
Average - 83.25
Recruiter average - 62.27
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 21.02
Rookie 6 - Jason Roe (50 games)
Rookie 22 - Leonard Clark (0 games)
Rookie 37 - Luke Forsyth (0 games)
Rookie 49 - Cheynee Stiller (100 games)
Average - 37.5
Recruiter average - 27.81
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.69
________________________________
2006 (Adelaide)
Pick 14 - James Sellar (44 games - counted games for all clubs)
Pick 32 - Kurt Tippett (116 games - counted games for all clubs)
Pick 48 - David Mackay (109 games)
Pick 64 - Nick Gill (17 games)
Pick 78 - Bryce Campbell (8 games)
Average - 58.8
Recruiter average - 57.56
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 1.24
Rookie 14 - Andrew McIntyre (0 games)
Rookie 29 - James Turner (0 games)
Rookie 43 - Rhys Archard (0 games)
Rookie 54 - Greg Gallman (0 games)
Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 24.65 games
Winner - Average Recruiter by 24.65
_______________________________
2007 (Sydney)
Pick 11 - Patrick Veszpremi (23 games)
Pick 26 - Brett Meredith (16 games)
Average - 19.5
Recruiter average - 54.32
Winner - Average Recruiter by 34.82
Rookie 10 - Matthew O'Dwyer (7 games)
Rookie 26 - Brendan Murphy (0 games)
Rookie 41 - Jake Orreal (0 games)
Rookie 53 - Matthew Beckmans (0 games)
Rookie 58 - Aaron Bruce (0 games)
Rookie 61 - Dean Terlich (24 games - 0 for Sydney)
Average - 5.17 (including Terlich's career after being delisted)
Recruiter average - 15.02
Winner - Average Recruiter by 9.85
________________________________
2008 (Sydney)
Pick 12 - Lewis Johnston (10 games - 2 for Sydney)
Pick 30 - Daniel Hannebery (105 games)
Pick 61 - Campbell Heath (14 games - 2 for Sydney)
Average - 43 (including all games played by Lewis Johnston and Campbell Heath after being traded)
Recruiter average - 42.92 (excluding Tom Rockliff, Liam Jurrah from the PSD)
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 0.08
Rookie 12 - Kristin Thornton (8 games)
Rookie 28 - Taylor Gilchrist (0 games)
Rookie 43 - Kyle Coney (0 games)
Rookie 57 - Mike Pyke (75 games)
Average - 20.75
Recruiter average - 19.27
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 1.48
________________________________
2009 (Sydney)
Pick 6 - Gary Rohan (31 games)
Pick 14 - Lewis Jetta (82 games)
Pick 38 - Sam Reid (58 games)
Pick 54 - Byron Sumner (1 game)
Pick 55 - Trent Dennis-Lane (28 games - 19 for Sydney)
Average - 40
Recruiter average - 30.07
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.93
Rookie 10 - Henry Playfair (5 games, previously played 11 at Sydney after being traded from Geelong. Those 11 games excluded due to being the product of a trade)
Rookie 63 - Chris McKaigue (0 games)
Rookie 71 - Nathan Gordon (5 games - 2 for Sydney)
Rookie 75 - Dylan McNeil (0 games)
Average - 2.5 (including Nathan Gordon's games after being delisted)
Recruiter average - 13.60
Winner - Average Recruiter by 11.1
________________________________
2010 (Sydney) - National draft data highly contaminated due to GC concessions, 3 father son picks, teams having to draft with extremely late picks, 17yo players removed from draft etc
Pick 21 - Jed Lamb (13 games - 12 for Sydney)
Pick 40 - Luke Parker (61 games)
Pick 57 - Alex Johnson (45 games)
Pick 73 - Matthew Spangher (12 games - 6 for Sydney)
Average - 32.75
Recruiter average - 23.56
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 9.19
Rookie 21 - Max Otten (0 games)
Rookie 38 - Ben Haren (0 games)
Rookie 88 - Eugene Krueger (0 games)
Average - 0
Recruiter average - 7.35
Winner - Average Recruiter by 7.35
________________________________
2011 (Sydney) - Data somewhat contaminated due to GWS concessions, 3 father/son picks, 17yo players out of pool
Pick 43 - Jordan Lockyer (0 games)
Pick 61 - Alex Brown (0 games)
Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 13.08
Winner - Average Recruiter by 13.08
Rookie 13 - Shane Biggs (3 games)
Rookie 31 - Campbell Heath (0 further games for Sydney)
Rookie 93 - Harry Cunningham (10 games)
Rookie 95 - Jack Lynch (0 games)
Average - 3.25 (4.33 if excluding Heath)
Recruiter average - 5.95
Winner - Average Recruiter by 2.7 (1.62 if excluding Heath)
________________________________
2012 (Sydney) Still a few concessions and 3 father/son picks
Pick 22 - Dean Towers (0 games)
Pick 44 - Harrison Marsh (0 games)
Pick 46 - Tim Membrey (0 games)
Pick 64 - Matthew Dick (0 games)
Average - 0 games
Recruiter average - 7.28
Winner - Average Recruiter by 7.28
Rookie 16 - Jake Lloyd (0 games)
Rookie 29 - Xavier Richards (1 game)
Rookie 37 - Dane Rampe (27 games)
Rookie 50 - Daniel Robinson (0 games)
Rookie 57 - Brandon Jack (9 games)
Rookie 58 - Sam Naismith (0 games)
Average - 6.17
Recruiter average - 2.62
Winner - Kinnear Beatson by 3.55
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