Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[PMBangers]

Any game tapes or stats of those games available?



At this stage neither of the boys are on my draft radar. They're two I would have needed to have seen more of this year to form a view, but neither did enough for mine off last year's play to endorse either of them.

https://www.aflq.com.au/qafl-live QAFL streams 1 game a round I believe, AFL Sydney have every game recorded and posted to http://aflsydney.sportscastcloud.com/ , you can search by team

Campbell and Gulden are playing for Pennant Hills and UNSW Bulldogs respectfully if you're looking to keep up with the bests/ goals per game

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare would you say that the relative strength of a draft and it’s labeling of a “super” draft is more often determined by the strength of WA and SA talents as opposed to the Vic kids, as the Vic kids are generally consistently quality year in year out, but there seems to be a lot of variation with the WA and SA crop ranging from elite to poor some years... to what extent do you see this true as a super draft indicator??

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare would you say that the relative strength of a draft and it’s labeling of a “super” draft is more often determined by the strength of WA and SA talents as opposed to the Vic kids, as the Vic kids are generally consistently quality year in year out, but there seems to be a lot of variation with the WA and SA crop ranging from elite to poor some years... to what extent do you see this true as a super draft indicator??

Super drafts I view as something that is determined in hindsight rather than at the time of the draft.

During my years covering the draft as I said at the time: 2018 up the top end is the best I've seen, and I'd wager as I did at the time to those I spoke to about the draft that the top end of that pool will be the best ever. Even then I was hesitant calling it a "super draft" being less than confident about the depth outside the first roughly 30 or so and not seeing anything late/rookie.

I still have that view of the 2018 draft. Still the best top end I've seen, though the picks 30 onwards I'm finding there are a few I am liking more than expected with others popping up and also impressing in that range and even though the rookie draft despite the vast majority of those rookied re-drafted. That late draft and rookie draft success if anything is what I look for if I'm looking at superdrafts, if there was any particular characteristic I'd be looking out for other than simply the sheer quantity of quality numbers.

The actual split between states as to where the talent comes from I see as being of no particular consequence. Some may have a view it makes a difference, but at the end of the day I'm looking at the quantity of quality footballers and whether they're the div 2 kids, from SA/WA or Victoria, it's all the same really. Some years absolutely there is variance from state to state and Victoria always produces on sheer numbers the most draft relevant talent, but even as the splits change, there is no massively noticeable difference in the draft quality when one or two particular states have particularly good draft crops.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Super drafts I view as something that is determined in hindsight rather than at the time of the draft.

During my years covering the draft as I said at the time: 2018 up the top end is the best I've seen, and I'd wager as I did at the time to those I spoke to about the draft that the top end of that pool will be the best ever. Even then I was hesitant calling it a "super draft" being less than confident about the depth outside the first roughly 30 or so and not seeing anything late/rookie.

Sometimes you can call a super draft with hindsight, but when you're watching Kings, Walsh, Smith, Rozee, Luko, Thomas, Blakey, Rankine - Those all looked highly elite and would not be shocking picks as a pick 1-3 in any draft year. That to me said it was going to be a super draft.
Kings, Walsh, Luko and Rankine had skills for their position which I had not seen in a long time.
Maybe Walsh and Smith we've seen some midfielders like them, but Luko, Rankine, Kings and Rozee were elite talents.

Just need to nail a few late round picks and bam, that is a insanely good draft and up there with the Ablett draft.

 

[Knightmare]

Sometimes you can call a super draft with hindsight, but when you're watching Kings, Walsh, Smith, Rozee, Luko, Thomas, Blakey, Rankine - Those all looked highly elite and would not be shocking picks as a pick 1-3 in any draft year. That to me said it was going to be a super draft.
Kings, Walsh, Luko and Rankine had skills for their position which I had not seen in a long time.
Maybe Walsh and Smith we've seen some midfielders like them, but Luko, Rankine, Kings and Rozee were elite talents.

Just need to nail a few late round picks and bam, that is a insanely good draft and up there with the Ablett draft.

Super top end. Sure.

But then you have in 2001 Andrew Welsh (47), Paul Medhurst (56), Dane Swan (58), Brian Lake (71) and the likes of Andrew Carrazzo, Mark Jamar, Quinten Lynch, Matthew Boyd, Nathan Bock, Aaron Sandilands, Ben Rutten and Marty Mattner as rookies. Gary Ablett and Jarrad Waite due to the way father-sons were during those times were also taken in the 40s.

1999 with after pick 40: Lindsay Gilbee Corey Enright, Chance Bateman, Ryan O'Keefe, Ben Johnson, Cameron Bruce, Ryan Hargrave, Ryan Houlihan. Then as rookied the likes of Tadhg Kennelly, Stephen Milne, Shane Tuck, Dean Brogan, Dean Cox.

And that's a far from exhaustive list of those drafted from those years.

The hope is 2018 still has more guys to develop and I'm sure there will be a number. But I'm still waiting on the star power and depth that we saw in those three successive great drafts. Maybe Connor McFadyen, Jack Ross, Justin McInerney, Curtis Taylor, Bailey Scott, Noah Answerth, Darcy Fort and Brayden Ham can be some of those. Or as rookies Callum Wilkie, Lachie Young, Jake Aarts and Mabior Chol could be some others.

But I'm not seeing those Swan, Lake, Sandilands, Boyd, Enright, O'Keefe, Milne level guys at this stage. If a few of them can get to that level or close, that's when I'm talking about it as beyond doubt a super draft and potentially the greatest ever AFL draft. Until we get those guys after 40 supporting the absolute top end early talents, I'm going to stick to greatest top-end and first round or all-time.

It's like saying a footballer will be the greatest of all time and they're two years into their career. It's premature to say they'll be outright that guy. And I feel it's the same thing to say of a draft where we're so early in the process.

 

[GWS Goose]

Super top end. Sure.

But then you have in 2001 Andrew Welsh (47), Paul Medhurst (56), Dane Swan (58), Brian Lake (71) and the likes of Andrew Carrazzo, Mark Jamar, Quinten Lynch, Matthew Boyd, Nathan Bock, Aaron Sandilands, Ben Rutten and Marty Mattner as rookies. Gary Ablett and Jarrad Waite due to the way father-sons were during those times were also taken in the 40s.

1999 with after pick 40: Lindsay Gilbee Corey Enright, Chance Bateman, Ryan O'Keefe, Ben Johnson, Cameron Bruce, Ryan Hargrave, Ryan Houlihan. Then as rookied the likes of Tadhg Kennelly, Stephen Milne, Shane Tuck, Dean Brogan, Dean Cox.

And that's a far from exhaustive list of those drafted from those years.

The hope is 2018 still has more guys to develop and I'm sure there will be a number. But I'm still waiting on the star power and depth that we saw in those three successive great drafts. Maybe Connor McFadyen, Jack Ross, Justin McInerney, Curtis Taylor, Bailey Scott, Noah Answerth, Darcy Fort and Brayden Ham can be some of those. Or as rookies Callum Wilkie, Lachie Young, Jake Aarts and Mabior Chol could be some others.

But I'm not seeing those Swan, Lake, Sandilands, Boyd, Enright, O'Keefe, Milne level guys at this stage. If a few of them can get to that level or close, that's when I'm talking about it as beyond doubt a super draft and potentially the greatest ever AFL draft. Until we get those guys after 40 supporting the absolute top end early talents, I'm going to stick to greatest top-end and first round or all-time.

It's like saying a footballer will be the greatest of all time and they're two years into their career. It's premature to say they'll be outright that guy. And I feel it's the same thing to say of a draft where we're so early in the process.

we'll never acknowledge a stack of pick 40 and later players as stars for a number of years. If those guys were ready made really good players, they wouldn't have went that low to start with, and will have to do more to earn a reputation as they won't have started with one. They'll take more time to make a reputation. (which goes along with your point inititially about hindsight)

The top end of this superdraft is looking more impressive by the week. More and more of those teen selections forging their way (Butters, Dursma, Caldwell all starting to contribute and looking more an more likely)

 

[Knightmare]

we'll never acknowledge a stack of pick 40 and later players as stars for a number of years. If those guys were ready made really good players, they wouldn't have went that low to start with, and will have to do more to earn a reputation as they won't have started with one. They'll take more time to make a reputation. (which goes along with your point inititially about hindsight)

The top end of this superdraft is looking more impressive by the week. More and more of those teen selections forging their way (Butters, Dursma, Caldwell all starting to contribute and looking more an more likely)

For this reason exactly is why I'm not yet comparing it to the greatest ever drafts.

Top end is more than there and for mine looking like the best ever to predict at this time.

If we get those later draft and a handful of rookies, that's when I'll give the draft as a whole that same respect.

What made those drafts so rare is the calibre of guys taken in those ranges. They don't come around in many drafts, and those quality of guys really boost drafts dramatically when they push through, which is why I view drafts so much as something only in hindsight where you can really rank them accurately in totality top to bottom.

 

[briztoon]

Surprised there’s been no mention that scouting and drafting is a lot more professional and accurate today, than 20 odd years ago.

Surely that has an impact on fewer late picks becoming stars.

 

[Chaisa]

Surprised there’s been no mention that scouting and drafting is a lot more professional and accurate today, than 20 odd years ago.

Surely that has an impact on fewer late picks becoming stars.

Yeah it's worth remembering that even in 99 and 01 there were quite a lot of first round failures. If 18 isn't the case and has a comparable number of superstars, who cares about how many gems come late in the draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Surprised there’s been no mention that scouting and drafting is a lot more professional and accurate today, than 20 odd years ago.

Surely that has an impact on fewer late picks becoming stars.

You're right and it's a good point. Clubs have improved. Larger staff numbers. Better and more comprehensive analysis. Less players missed.

With that said, there are still late/rookie guys when clubs don't just re-draft the same players (which is in my view why we're seeing less of those rookie success stories than we once did) and we're still seeing mature agers who have been overlooked in years past and turn to gold eg. Tim Kelly. And there wouldn't be guys like Sydney Stack completely overlooked.

So those guys are still absolutely out there. There remains imperfection and imprecision in the drafting process, as much as it has improved.

 

[WWSD]

Knightmare if the Hawks end up securing a top 5 pick in this years draft, what type of player do you think they will go for? An inside midfielder or a key position player?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare if the Hawks end up securing a top 5 pick in this years draft, what type of player do you think they will go for? An inside midfielder or a key position player?

With the Hawks needing a bit of everything I suspect best available.

My very much premature guess is if Logan McDonald or Riley Thilthorpe are there and they have a good season, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks draft them. There is at least in the far away past a history of taking KPPs with early picks. But if those two aren't there, I expect a mid.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft state of play analysis. Details on pick 1 contenders, those prospects to watch, a draft bolter and more: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...raft-playing-top-prospects-clubs-holding-aces

 

[Eagleboy2011]

NORTH Melbourne has dropped star spearhead Ben Brown and high-priced midfielder Jared Polec ahead of Saturday's clash with winless Adelaide.

Are they trying to get No 1 pick and who might suit them.

 

[Johnny Rutten]

NORTH Melbourne has dropped star spearhead Ben Brown and high-priced midfielder Jared Polec ahead of Saturday's clash with winless Adelaide.

Are they trying to get No 1 pick and who might suit them.

North have no chance of finishing bottom. We've got that well and truly sewn up.

 

[Knightmare]

NORTH Melbourne has dropped star spearhead Ben Brown and high-priced midfielder Jared Polec ahead of Saturday's clash with winless Adelaide.

Are they trying to get No 1 pick and who might suit them.

Adelaide would have to start winning games to finish ahead of North Melbourne.

If North are going to start dropping Brown and Polec and don't view them as a clear, decisive part of their best 22s, that just screams opportunity for rival clubs.
Clubs can go make offers if those guys fill a need and the offers tick the boxes for North also.

 

[arsene wenger1]

Adelaide would have to start winning games to finish ahead of North Melbourne.

If North are going to start dropping Brown and Polec and don't view them as a clear, decisive part of their best 22s, that just screams opportunity for rival clubs.
Clubs can go make offers if those guys fill a need and the offers tick the boxes for North also.

Hence why north see this as an opportunity for Adelaide to get one of those wins
The conspiracies are beginning

 

[Turbocat]

Super drafts I view as something that is determined in hindsight rather than at the time of the draft.

During my years covering the draft as I said at the time: 2018 up the top end is the best I've seen, and I'd wager as I did at the time to those I spoke to about the draft that the top end of that pool will be the best ever. Even then I was hesitant calling it a "super draft" being less than confident about the depth outside the first roughly 30 or so and not seeing anything late/rookie.

I still have that view of the 2018 draft. Still the best top end I've seen, though the picks 30 onwards I'm finding there are a few I am liking more than expected with others popping up and also impressing in that range and even though the rookie draft despite the vast majority of those rookied re-drafted. That late draft and rookie draft success if anything is what I look for if I'm looking at superdrafts, if there was any particular characteristic I'd be looking out for other than simply the sheer quantity of quality numbers.

The actual split between states as to where the talent comes from I see as being of no particular consequence. Some may have a view it makes a difference, but at the end of the day I'm looking at the quantity of quality footballers and whether they're the div 2 kids, from SA/WA or Victoria, it's all the same really. Some years absolutely there is variance from state to state and Victoria always produces on sheer numbers the most draft relevant talent, but even as the splits change, there is no massively noticeable difference in the draft quality when one or two particular states have particularly good draft crops.

The term is something that oft repeated , and projected.... but in hindsight has anyone figure to prove out that specific draft are super..if so what would we use to define them as super.. Games produced. high end players ..so B&F's or AA selection?... perhaps they player type most drafts seem to produce a reasonable number of mids but when a draft holds talls? I guess does anyone have proof of concept.

 

[Knightmare]

The term is something that oft repeated , and projected.... but in hindsight has anyone figure to prove out that specific draft are super..if so what would we use to define them as super.. Games produced. high end players ..so B&F's or AA selection?... perhaps they player type most drafts seem to produce a reasonable number of mids but when a draft holds talls? I guess does anyone have proof of concept.

There is an AFL analytics company that covered this very topic and listed those best drafts in order. I believe it was in their book. I would have read it a few years ago.

I don't recall the exact order but 99,00,01,06,08 I imagine would have been those top-5. What I do remember is that they didn't consider '01 to be the best stating that the draft to paraphrase had a lot of great players, but didn't on volume have as much as either/or/both 99/00, based on what had been produced of the players to that time of writing.

It might have been footyology if I recall correctly. Hopefully we have some other well read footy/stats/analytics readers out there who can help us out on this one. It's a book I would have borrowed from a local library so I can't directly reference the text.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

There is an AFL analytics company that covered this very topic and listed those best drafts in order. I believe it was in their book. I would have read it a few years ago.

I don't recall the exact order but 99,00,01,06,08 I imagine would have been those top-5. What I do remember is that they didn't consider '01 to be the best stating that the draft to paraphrase had a lot of great players, but didn't on volume have as much as either/or/both 99/00, based on what had been produced of the players to that time of writing.

It might have been footyology if I recall correctly. Hopefully we have some other well read footy/stats/analytics readers out there who can help us out on this one. It's a book I would have borrowed from a local library so I can't directly reference the text.

2000 in the top 5?

What about 1997?

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Hence why north see this as an opportunity for Adelaide to get one of those wins
The conspiracies are beginning

Tex just pulled out with gastro... keep the conspiracies coming...

 

[Giant Strides]

Crows counter-tanking!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare do you see a good chance of both zane trew and oliver henry ending up at the cats?? What draft range do you see both being??

 

[Knightmare]

2000 in the top 5?

What about 1997?

1997 was another really nice draft knowing the guys taken. I don't remember it being one of those on the list, it may have been, I don't recall, though they may not have gone back beyond 1999? Would need confirmation from someone with a copy of the book.

Knightmare do you see a good chance of both zane trew and oliver henry ending up at the cats?? What draft range do you see both being??

Trew may/may not be available. Top-10 isn't out of the question, but his draft position depends on how strong his season is. A list fit if there though. I have him later in the first round at the moment so he could go around Geelong's pick.

Henry I can see going second or third round. Geelong like local talents, and no harm in taking a sibling as long as they don't feel there is too much overlap, so he'd be someone Geelong could consider and no doubt will give thought to. Geelong in my view could accommodate him also with need for good youth across more lines than just midfield.

 

[briztoon]

1997 was another really nice draft knowing the guys taken. I don't remember it being one of those on the list, it may have been, I don't recall, though they may not have gone back beyond 1999? Would need confirmation from someone with a copy of the book.



Trew may/may not be available. Top-10 isn't out of the question, but his draft position depends on how strong his season is. A list fit if there though. I have him later in the first round at the moment so he could go around Geelong's pick.

Henry I can see going second or third round. Geelong like local talents, and no harm in taking a sibling as long as they don't feel there is too much overlap, so he'd be someone Geelong could consider and no doubt will give thought to. Geelong in my view could accommodate him also with need for good youth across more lines than just midfield.

Almost every other draft watcher or media draft list I have seen has Henry as a potential top 15 draft prospect and likened to James Sicily.