Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[weltschmerz]

That's all well and good, but at the end of the day the easiest way for AFL, state leagues, junior leagues and competitions to make money is 1) broadcasting rights and 2) sponsorship. The AFL and state leagues know people will pay to consume content.

The question still remains and what the AFL would be potentially weighing up no doubt with the loss of income this year and general economy... if the NAB League does go down the route of a paywall where you had to pay to watch the games, would you pay to watch?




(This can be for anyone not just KM)

If I could pay a subscription fee to see all the games in good quality and some highlights, yep, I definitely would.

 

[PMBangers]

That's all well and good, but at the end of the day the easiest way for AFL, state leagues, junior leagues and competitions to make money is 1) broadcasting rights and 2) sponsorship. The AFL and state leagues know people will pay to consume content.

The question still remains and what the AFL would be potentially weighing up no doubt with the loss of income this year and general economy... if the NAB League does go down the route of a paywall where you had to pay to watch the games, would you pay to watch?




(This can be for anyone not just KM)

Without a doubt, I've got a busy life so struggle to get to games, the streaming and ability to watch at a later date is a godsend.

 

[Knightmare]

That's all well and good, but at the end of the day the easiest way for AFL, state leagues, junior leagues and competitions to make money is 1) broadcasting rights and 2) sponsorship. The AFL and state leagues know people will pay to consume content.

The question still remains and what the AFL would be potentially weighing up no doubt with the loss of income this year and general economy... if the NAB League does go down the route of a paywall where you had to pay to watch the games, would you pay to watch?

(This can be for anyone not just KM)

If games cost money to attend and all games to view online are behind a pay wall, I'd strongly consider doing other things out of opposition in principle. If the AFL doesn't care enough to invest to expand the scope and reach of the junior competitions and state leagues in their time of need, they've given up and I could be doing something better with my time.

I can surely tax deduct, so that would be the only reason I'd even consider it. But even then I'm doing the wrong thing and sending the wrong message by doing so, as it's behaviour that shouldn't be rewarded as it's counterproductive to the growth of the game. It's not the right thing to do, particularly for the junior competitions when those in attendance are scouts, journos, family members or school mates.

Those within the industry equally need support but this isn't the way to do it if there is any desire for any kind of long run expansion.

It's the stuff that gets kids who could be playing footy moving to other sports and would make me reluctant if ever I'm a parent to encourage them down a junior football pathway.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

If games cost money to attend and all games to view online are behind a pay wall, I'd strongly consider doing other things out of opposition in principle. If the AFL doesn't care enough to invest to expand the scope and reach of the junior competitions and state leagues in their time of need, they've given up and I could be doing something better with my time.

Okay, so this is the current state of play in (particularly) South Australia and Western Australia (bar one WAFL League game on FTA). We assume it will be the same next year (because the economy isn't getting any better)...

Does this mean that due to your opposition to the idea that the leagues should be free to view and attend, that therefore the NAB League would be the only one worth your time watching next year? (Providing it's free like this year).

 

[Knightmare]

Okay, so this is the current state of play in (particularly) South Australia and Western Australia (bar one WAFL League game on FTA). We assume it will be the same next year (because the economy isn't getting any better)...

Does this mean that due to your opposition to the idea that the leagues should be free to view and attend, that therefore the NAB League would be the only one worth your time watching next year? (Providing it's free like this year).

If NAB League is free again, school footy is free, there won't be any issue for me. I'll be heading to games, and watching others online as normal. VFL I also have a pass for and may sometimes watch, but otherwise it's VFL, SANFL, WAFL games of the week. NEAFL I used to watch with interest on YouTube and will miss. Particularly those GWS and Gold Coast reserves teams I had a lot of fun watching over the years, knowing all the talent on those lists and knowing just how good they are has been great fun just scouting them almost like junior clubs. Then of course I'm watching numerous AFL games each weekend. So that fills up my week/weekend pretty comprehensively. With the bulk of that interstate junior watching coming from U18 Champs.

Absolutely it's a handicap if I'm not watching all the interstate footy and means from the perspective that it means less interstate exposure, but as a one person recruiting team there are only so many hours as someone with a full time job and other commitments outside football watching. I spend so much time watching junior footy games that I don't take in any media anymore and haven't for the past few years now unless alerting to something either by someone on here or twitter. It's just game watching for me so that I'm all over the AFL and NAB League talent and where I have time, have some context as to what's happening in the state leagues and other junior competitions nationally. And with no NAB League this year, that's going to have to be my focus next year just to be across all that talent to the level I expect anyway.

 

[Chris25]

This is going to sound bad so I do apologise in advance, but...

If you’re presumably being paid by ESPN to write about U18s and getting billed as a draft expert, I can’t fathom that you refuse to pay a small amount to actually watch what you write about. It means you’d have barely seen any football this year without the Victorians? Principles are one thing, but in that case maybe you should be doing this for free. Or just make ESPN pay. I’m sure they aren’t strapped for cash.

And there really is no comparison between our sports and US sports. College football isn’t successful because of merchandise. It’s successful because high school football is successful. Getting people interested in U18 football would require a complete overhaul of the schooling system to make it sport centric. But it’s not really a debate I’m interested in, because it is what it is. Only diehard fans will ever care about underage AFL.

 

[Knightmare]

This is going to sound bad so I do apologise in advance, but...

If you’re presumably being paid by ESPN to write about U18s and getting billed as a draft expert, I can’t fathom that you refuse to pay a small amount to actually watch what you write about. It means you’d have barely seen any football this year without the Victorians? Principles are one thing, but in that case maybe you should be doing this for free. Or just make ESPN pay. I’m sure they aren’t strapped for cash.

And there really is no comparison between our sports and US sports. College football isn’t successful because of merchandise. It’s successful because high school football is successful. Getting people interested in U18 football would require a complete overhaul of the schooling system to make it sport centric. But it’s not really a debate I’m interested in, because it is what it is. Only diehard fans will ever care about underage AFL.

It doesn't sound like you've been following me much on ESPN this year. I haven't been doing weekly reports or producing very much content this year compared to years past, and without Victorian junior footy I see no need.

With no Victorian footy and that being where the bulk of the talent comes from, there hasn't been much to do this year other than go through last year's U18 Champs and last year's NAB league with a focus on Victorian talent. And when there is only 4 of the top 9 from outside Victoria from my draft board, I feel I've invested my time precisely where it needs to be invested, particularly with so much of the good interstate talent part of club academies. There is more than enough games to have filled up my year to go through again to have strong positions on this year's Victorian talent.

I've fortunately had access to a number of games tapes this year outside of such paid services and enjoyed a number of televised state league games which have included a number of the better interstate talents. So I've hardly been deprived of watching junior talent including interstate talent either.

If you believe your own methodology is the better at yielding a stronger draft board, I encourage you to try to do so.

There is also if I decide to use my next month or two hopefully time assuming these subscription services store the games to go back and watch them, and if I do so, I'll have the benefit of hindsight knowing which games are those most worth spending my time watching which will be a helpful timesaver.

 

[Mojorisin]

This is going to sound bad so I do apologise in advance, but...

If you’re presumably being paid by ESPN to write about U18s and getting billed as a draft expert, I can’t fathom that you refuse to pay a small amount to actually watch what you write about. It means you’d have barely seen any football this year without the Victorians? Principles are one thing, but in that case maybe you should be doing this for free. Or just make ESPN pay. I’m sure they aren’t strapped for cash.

And there really is no comparison between our sports and US sports. College football isn’t successful because of merchandise. It’s successful because high school football is successful. Getting people interested in U18 football would require a complete overhaul of the schooling system to make it sport centric. But it’s not really a debate I’m interested in, because it is what it is. Only diehard fans will ever care about underage AFL.

In fairness he puts alot of info on here free and replies to all of us daily also although he puts write ups on ESPN they aren't booked by paywall.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

It doesn't sound like you've been following me much on ESPN this year. I haven't been doing weekly reports or producing very much content this year compared to years past, and without Victorian junior footy I see no need.

With no Victorian footy and that being where the bulk of the talent comes from, there hasn't been much to do this year other than go through last year's U18 Champs and last year's NAB league with a focus on Victorian talent. And when there is only 2 of the top 9 from outside Victoria from my draft board, I feel I've invested my time precisely where it needs to be invested, particularly with so much of the good interstate talent part of club academies. There is more than enough games to have filled up my year to go through again to have strong positions on this year's Victorian talent.

I've fortunately had access to a number of games tapes this year outside of such paid services and enjoyed a number of televised state league games which have included a number of the better interstate talents. So I've hardly been deprived of watching junior talent including interstate talent either.

If you believe your own methodology is the better at yielding a stronger draft board, I encourage you to try to do so.

There is also if I decide to use my next month or two hopefully time assuming these subscription services store the games to go back and watch them, and if I do so, I'll have the benefit of hindsight knowing which games are those most worth spending my time watching which will be a helpful timesaver.

I'm a bit confused by this line. Are you saying that if watching more games yields a stronger draft board then go for it and therefore by the same token that watching more games does not necessarily equate to more knowledge?

I have no problems with people picking and choosing what they watch, each to their own, and you've pointed out why you've done it (the top-end talent being Victorian). But then wouldn't that be a problem for the middle-to-lower regions of the draft board?

 

[Knightmare]

I'm a bit confused by this line. Are you saying that if watching more games yields a stronger draft board then go for it and therefore by the same token that watching more games does not necessarily equate to more knowledge?

I have no problems with people picking and choosing what they watch, each to their own, and you've pointed out why you've done it (the top-end talent being Victorian). But then wouldn't that be a problem for the middle-to-lower regions of the draft board?

What I'm suggesting is as a proportion the highest concentration of time spend should be on NAB League.

It's important to be across each of the major state competitions but if you're a one man recruiting team it's about watching games with the highest proportion of draft relevant talents, as much as possible.

So it's like if watching NAB League. Oakleigh have an unbelievable amount of talent. Those who haven't watched the vast majority or ideally all of the 2019 games for mine are making a mistake.

With interstate games I'm a lot more selective. There are key games with a number of key players playing. To get a feel for where Logan McDonald and Denver Grainger-Barrass are at as a key example, it's essential watching to watch Swan Districts v Perth, as fortunately was a free televised game. Sensational game. Those who watched the third quarter of that game clearly understood that DGB is a piece, and although I haven't made an update of my draft board in the last month, people will see him rise up my board in my December rankings after beating McDonald in what appeared to be every contest in that third quarter when they were directly matched up, after McDonald came out hot early and it seemed like DGB had had enough of that.

There are key games like that where there is a few good players on the stage at the same time. Because we're talking about lower quality competitions with a lot less talent, particularly when we're talking about the u18s in SA or the colts in WA, you don't need to be watching every game. You just need to see enough to have a feel for which guys can actually play, and there will be some you see and might want to see a few more of who might spike some interest.

If we're talking about a recruiting department, they can be a lot less broad in their analysis, but unless you're one of a team of recruiters, it's in my view vital to spend the most time assessing those teams with the most draft relevant talent to have the best and most informed views possible on them.

 

[Chris25]

It doesn't sound like you've been following me much on ESPN this year. I haven't been doing weekly reports or producing very much content this year compared to years past, and without Victorian junior footy I see no need.

Maybe I’ll give it a read for the Victorians, and go elsewhere for anyone else.

 

[Peter Wallis]

Hey KM, reckon there’s any chance that Grainger-Barrass would last until Carlton’s pick 7?

I reckon he’d be the ideal type to take over from Liam Jones in a key defensive post in a few years.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Carlton won't have pick 7, they will use that to get Saad.

 

[briztoon]

I agree with a lot of what you say here, its almost like the AFL have given up trying to create or gain new markets within Australia or Internationally by not having a good online presence, whether that be youtube, Facebook, access to game footage, or even having professionally run sites that are easy to access and find what you need (somehow the AFL site gets worse every time they "upgrade" it)AND INSTEAD trying to bleed dry its current audience via paywalling everything, sure making money off of your fans is a good income strategy, but its almost like they have given up on growing their market and hoping their new qld and nsw teams are enough to achieve some small growth in those states for the foreseeable future.

As for youth football, I agree as well that the pittance they make from charging people could be done away with and that the AFL whose job it is to promote the code should take financial responsibility for promoting the game and the future talent(I mean they have invested millions into AFLW that is a huge financial loss, btw you can find all the u16 and u18 aflw games free online, no problems) the US has shown how high school and college sports can be promoted and create followings that then makes the draft a more attractive event and people can be more educated on the young talent coming through.

You do know how much money is in school and college hoops and football in the States right?

There’s individual college football programs that generate tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, but the kids don’t see any of it. Across the whole NCAA, American football generated $5.6 billion in 2019.

Nike and Adidas have commercialised the crap out of high school hoops and football.

There’s just no comparison between sports in the USA and Australia.

 

[andleanback]

You do know how much money is in school and college hoops and football in the States right?

There’s individual college football programs that generate tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, but the kids don’t see any of it. Across the whole NCAA, American football generated $5.6 billion in 2019.

Nike and Adidas have commercialised the crap out of high school hoops and football.

There’s just no comparison between sports in the USA and Australia.

And the other thing is with high school football played at such a high level it’s a good standard to watch, and sometimes it’s the only team some towns have to watch - in a live sport sense, as there is no community based sport in America, where here in aus you have your local football club. So people in the towns (Texas HS football is the strongest in America) often follow the team as they also once went to the same school and still live in the town. That’s what makes it so popular, then those elite talents already have a cult following by the time they get picked up to play ncaa ball. You know it’s big when they have 1 night of the week dedicated to them and the professional league doesn’t play on that day because of it.

 

[briztoon]

In fairness he puts alot of info on here free and replies to all of us daily also although he puts write ups on ESPN they aren't booked by paywall.

You realise he’s basically admitted to not watching most of the interstate kids this year. Wasn’t even aware WA Colts was paywalled.

So how much value are you going to put on his comments.

Most recruiters have Denver Granger-Barras, Riley Thilthorpe and Logan McDonald in their top 5 or 6 prospects this year, but Knightmare says he only has two non Victorians in his top 10.

Not to mention there’s Braeden Campbell, Lachlan Jones, Nathan O’Driscoll and Alex Davies who are all in top 10 discussions.

 

[Davo-27]

You do know how much money is in school and college hoops and football in the States right?

There’s individual college football programs that generate tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, but the kids don’t see any of it. Across the whole NCAA, American football generated $5.6 billion in 2019.

Nike and Adidas have commercialised the crap out of high school hoops and football.

There’s just no comparison between sports in the USA and Australia.

There was school and college sports before there was sponsors...

Televising a sport, grows a sport, if the AFL got a television deal for u18s sport and put it on the ABC it would grow and then pay for itself in a decades time via sponsorships imo, but its never been tried, so we will never know.

If the kids are any good in the US they make that a year, going professional(accumulative)

 

[briztoon]

There was school and college sports before there was sponsors...

Televising a sport, grows a sport, if the AFL got a television deal for u18s sport and put it on the ABC it would grow and then pay for itself in a decades time via sponsorships imo, but its never been tried, so we will never know.

If the kids are any good in the US they make that a year, going professional(accumulative)

US college sport has always had alumni way back when.

They have a different sporting culture and a far greater population to support their sporting industries.

Even their sponsorships are on a different level. Because a lot of their sponsorship is global.

It’s unlikely we’ll ever see such levels of sponsorship in Australian sports. There just isn’t the global interest and reach to attract such money to the game.

When was the last time a 22 old AFL player signed a multimillion dollar shoe contract.

 

[Knightmare]

You realise he’s basically admitted to not watching most of the interstate kids this year. Wasn’t even aware WA Colts was paywalled.

So how much value are you going to put on his comments.

Most recruiters have Denver Granger-Barras, Riley Thilthorpe and Logan McDonald in their top 5 or 6 prospects this year, but Knightmare says he only has two non Victorians in his top 10.

Not to mention there’s Braeden Campbell, Lachlan Jones, Nathan O’Driscoll and Alex Davies who are all in top 10 discussions.

I'm not sure where this notion that I should be aware of some paywall from some website I've never heard of from another state comes from. It's not anything anyone has told me about. Other than the SANFL and this WAFL Colts paywall stuff, are there any other competition videos I should also be aware of and get stuck into over the next couple of months? Without NAB League, U18 Champs, VFL or NEAFL, it has been other than watching AFL games, games posted on YouTube, those televised SANFL and WAFL games and those I get separate private links to from time to time.

If there is the demand I can go on a SANFL/WAFL colts watching binge before the draft. There are still further NAB League and NEAFL games I'd like to review from last year, and still will, but with the AFL season wrapping up, I have the time.

I'm not sure where I pulled 2 from. Campbell is in there with McDonald and Thilthorpe, as per my power rankings on page 1. My top end won't change a lot with those next-10 those I will be moving around a lot having reviewing game tapes of those players I consider of strong interest in that next group down.

Where I rate players doesn't correlate with where I expect players to feature in the draft. I'm fully aware of those prospects projected to go inside the top-10, as I am those projected to feature inside the first round.

Of those you mention, O'Driscoll and Davies don't belong in top-10 discussions and are nowhere near that in my power rankings. Both are awful decision makers under pressure. Highly likely that neither will be in my final top-20 rankings once December comes and I release my final power rankings. There are better options. O'Driscoll through below expectation WAFL form has likely played himself out of the first round and into the second round to be realistic.

I'd be surprised for those who view my ratings if it was viewed that proportionately there are too few from outside Victoria once I finalise my rankings. I'm happy to take criticism at the end of the year if it feels too Victorian centric, but my suspicion is there will be several in there others won't have in there at all, or if they do, not as high, as there are several interstate prospects, as with the Victorian prospects who I see differently to where I suspect others may have them.

 

[briztoon]

I'm not sure where this notion that I should be aware of some paywall from some website I've never heard of from another state comes from. It's not anything anyone has told me about. Other than the SANFL and this WAFL Colts paywall stuff, are there any other competition videos I should also be aware of and get stuck into over the next couple of months? Without NAB League, U18 Champs, VFL or NEAFL, it has been other than watching AFL games, games posted on YouTube, those televised SANFL and WAFL games and those I get separate private links to from time to time.

If there is the demand I can go on a SANFL/WAFL colts watching binge before the draft. There are still further NAB League and NEAFL games I'd like to review from last year, and still will, but with the AFL season wrapping up, I have the time.

I'm not sure where I pulled 2 from. Campbell is in there with McDonald and Thilthorpe, as per my power rankings on page 1. My top end won't change a lot with those next-10 those I will be moving around a lot having reviewing game tapes of those players I consider of strong interest in that next group down.

Where I rate players doesn't correlate with where I expect players to feature in the draft. I'm fully aware of those prospects projected to go inside the top-10, as I am those projected to feature inside the first round.

Of those you mention, O'Driscoll and Davies don't belong in top-10 discussions and are nowhere near that in my power rankings. Both are awful decision makers under pressure. Highly likely that neither will be in my final top-20 rankings once December comes and I release my final power rankings. There are better options. O'Driscoll through below expectation WAFL form has likely played himself out of the first round and into the second round to be realistic.

I'd be surprised for those who view my ratings if it was viewed that proportionately there are too few from outside Victoria once I finalise my rankings. I'm happy to take criticism at the end of the year if it feels too Victorian centric, but my suspicion is there will be several in there others won't have in there at all, or if they do, not as high, as there are several interstate prospects, as with the Victorian prospects who I see differently to where I suspect others may have them.

Because you write for ESPN as their U18 and draft watcher.

It’s kind of what you’re supposed to do.

The NEAFL is dead. Won’t be coming back. So all the QLD NEAFL players went back to play QAFL this season. So all the best Lions and Suns kids played senior QAFL with and against a lot of ex AFL players.

QAFL streamed games live on YouTube this season.

A rival publication pumped out match and player summaries every week on the QAFL, SANFL, reserves and U18’s, and WAFL and Colts. As well as the Suns v Lions academy games, QWAFL, SANFLW, etc.

You don’t need to read everything from other media companies, but you should be aware what they’re doing.

Otherwise you should have a big asterisk against prospects if you’re going to answer people’s questions, without having watched the player this year.

 

[GoodFlashy]

So knightmare, you haven’t watched Qafl, SANFL or WAFL this year? How do you know who has improved or worsened?

 

[GoodFlashy]

If there is the demand I can go on a SANFL/WAFL colts watching binge before the draft. There are still further NAB League and NEAFL games I'd like to review from last year, and still will, but with the AFL season wrapping up, I have the time.

I would really like this, get your opinion on how players have improved.

 

[JaegarTime]

Because you write for ESPN as their U18 and draft watcher.

It’s kind of what you’re supposed to do.

The NEAFL is dead. Won’t be coming back. So all the QLD NEAFL players went back to play QAFL this season. So all the best Lions and Suns kids played senior QAFL with and against a lot of ex AFL players.

QAFL streamed games live on YouTube this season.

A rival publication pumped out match and player summaries every week on the QAFL, SANFL, reserves and U18’s, and WAFL and Colts. As well as the Suns v Lions academy games, QWAFL, SANFLW, etc.

You don’t need to read everything from other media companies, but you should be aware what they’re doing.

Otherwise you should have a big asterisk against prospects if you’re going to answer people’s questions, without having watched the player this year.

Seems like you’re being argumentative for the sake of it tbh. If you don’t like reading what he has to say then don’t read it.

 

[Knightmare]

So knightmare, you haven’t watched Qafl, SANFL or WAFL this year? How do you know who has improved or worsened?

The draft hasn't been my primary focus this year, and with no NAB League, VFL, NEAFL, U18 Championships, I feel I would be doing myself a disservice if I didn't reallocate the % of time spent accordingly. Particularly with no reporting obligations this year for ESPN, it has really allowed me this flexibility. Usually I'll spend roughly 60% of my football time focusing on draft eligible talent, this year it would be no more than 40% of that time, as there plainly put is no need for more than that this season. If AFL club scouts aren't spending more time analysing opposition list talent I'd be querying how they're using their time. My interest is list management and looking at the best opportunities for clubs to improve their list talent, and this year that best method, and most clear cut method of doing so is through the trade period. And there are countless underutilised players in all positions who I'll be covering in my upcoming piece for ESPN. So my interest has been on AFL talent first this year for those not already aware.

I've spoken about this theme before for those who have been following the thread, but this year is the ultimate transfer of wealth. The number of available players and underutilised players on AFL club lists is what has caught my attention and interest this year. Teams who get better this offseason will most likely be doing so because they've taken advantage of those opportunities presented through the trade and free agency period.

As I'm not a subscriber to any SANFL/WAFL streaming service at this time, I have been fortunate enough through other methods to have enjoyed games from those competitions which has allowed my views on those prospects I'm interested in watching to form and develop. Both from those weekly televised games that have included draft relevant talent but also several other games I have been fortunate enough to have had access to. I'm current with NT talent and TSL and AFLQ I have watched those key games I've wanted to watch this season, though they're hardly competitions to spend too much time focusing on aside from those games featuring several draft relevant talents. From the SANFL and WAFL colts there are further games I would like to review from those competitions still that I have not been able to source footage for, so unless I can find some other way of sourcing those game tapes, if I can get some kind of assurance whatever games are stored on these services won't be going anywhere between now and the draft, I'll despite my personal views that such services should be free, spend some time exploring those services and those available games if there is no other option.

Whether other recruiters keep reviewing full games, I have not compared methods. But until the week of the draft I continue watching different games so that my views are going into the draft as fully formed as they can be, and this year will be no different in that regard. Once we hit AFL finals, of course I'm not missing a finals game, but my focus has shifted back to junior footy as I'm fully aware for any club situation the precise players I would target and who in each position/role are those undervalued guys.

 

[sunsofanarchy]

Seems important by attacking the big dog

Seems like you’re being argumentative for the sake of it tbh. If you don’t like reading what he has to say then don’t read it.

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[briztoon]

Seems important by attacking the big dog

On SM-G960W using BigFooty.com mobile app

I’m not important. Don’t have any desire to be.

Seems like you’re being argumentative for the sake of it tbh. If you don’t like reading what he has to say then don’t read it.

So you picked me out of all the posters from the last 3 pages.