Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Is the U16 National Champs likely to go ahead albeit in a reduced format like you mentioned for U18? Can you have one without the other? There is only one year to be picked for U16 so would that year (current year of birth is 2004) be jeopardised by never being seen until possibly draft year if they don't make bottom aged U18. Surely there will be larger numbers on squads or they'll change things next year (perhaps have a stand alone U17 national?) so as not to let an entire birthyear miss out. interested in your thoughts or knowledge on such things

I don't follow U16s but any resumption would depend on COVID. Nothing is anticipated at this stage, though perhaps like with the U18s I wouldn't be surprised if they had some short tournament late year, though it's lower priority than U18s.

Whether U16s/U17s play or not doesn't matter as much. I guess it might make it harder for them to make junior club lists, but even then guys have been recruited to those teams during the season in the past if good enough (Toby McLean from memory to name one I don't recall was there start of his draft year and it seems over the rounds looking at the records more and more players get added to lists each season - I'm assuming as some of the recruiters for those U18s clubs scout the local leagues for talent and may see something in some of them) and I expect there would be some flexibility around that assuming we return to business as usual next year. So there isn't anything with those age groups that concerns me particularly. It's more the lack of exposure of the U18s this year + the expected reduced list sizes and how that will limit the number of those drafted is more the element that is unfortunate for this year's group.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I haven't heard anything re. NAB League starting up.

My impression of what is planned is some kind of short tournament. Perhaps a late year U18 Champs before the draft if conditions allow it.

The focus from the U18 clubs seems to be on the kids education and ensuring they get through that as the priority given the unusual school year we're experiencing.

Now that the AFL is apparently eying an August return for the NAB league do you think there's much advantage there for any SA recruits good enough to play SANFL starting in June? Are there which South Australians to make much difference?

 

[Knightmare]

Now that the AFL is apparently eying an August return for the NAB league do you think there's much advantage there for any SA recruits good enough to play SANFL starting in June? Are there which South Australians to make much difference?

Kane Baldwin I suspect may be the greatest beneficiary given he did his ACL in round 1 last year. If he is right to go the extra rounds to build into it would help and if he can play some League games later on and hold his own, that would help his draft stocks and solidify his chances as a potential high draft choice.

An earlier return advantage is minor, but there are a few cases like Baldwin who is can marginally help.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Kane Baldwin I suspect may be the greatest beneficiary given he did his ACL in round 1 last year. If he is right to go the extra rounds to build into it would help and if he can play some League games later on and hold his own, that would help his draft stocks and solidify his chances as a potential high draft choice.

An earlier return advantage is minor, but there are a few cases like Baldwin who is can marginally help.

I think in general those who did their ACL's (Cumberland aside) in the past year have the biggest advantage of COVID-19 shutdowns.

 

[weltschmerz]

I think in general those who did their ACL's (Cumberland aside) in the past year have the biggest advantage of COVID-19 shutdowns.

Carlton already got a great deal in Brodie Kemp, and assuming he’s been able to keep up rehab, it’s seeming like an even better deal.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Carlton already got a great deal in Brodie Kemp, and assuming he’s been able to keep up rehab, it’s seeming like an even better deal.

Perfect example someone benefiting from it.

 

[briztoon]

Has there been a study, or records kept, of how many players have done multiple acl’s in the AFL over the last decade.

It sure looks to me like most players do multiple acl’s.

 

[PMBangers]

Has there been a study, or records kept, of how many players have done multiple acl’s in the AFL over the last decade.

It sure looks to me like most players do multiple acl’s.

Risk of Secondary Injury in Younger Athletes After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Injury to the ipsilateral graft used for reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) or a new injury to the contralateral ACL are disastrous outcomes after successful ACL reconstruction (ACLR), rehabilitation, and return to activity. Studies ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

TL;DR much less people redo it than you'd think in contact sport, however there seems to be a correlation with age to re-rupture rate (younger an athlete is the more they re-rupture), this equates to approximately 30-40 times more chance of doing an ACL injury

Couldn't find the exact study but I remember in uni I did a report on timing of re-ruptures, a crazy high amount (like 80+%) were within the 24 months after the first injury.

Injured Cruciate Ligament (ACL)? Improve Your Odds of Returning to Sport

Anterior cruciate ligament injuries can be devastating. Fortunately a lot can be done to improve your knee both before & after surgery. Did you know that pre-operative rehab improves your chances of returning to sport after an ACL reconstruction? Read about what you can do to optimise your...

newcastlesportsmedicine.com.au

This one also claims there's more instances of injury in the other ACL

 

[andleanback]

Risk of Secondary Injury in Younger Athletes After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Injury to the ipsilateral graft used for reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) or a new injury to the contralateral ACL are disastrous outcomes after successful ACL reconstruction (ACLR), rehabilitation, and return to activity. Studies ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

TL;DR much less people redo it than you'd think in contact sport, however there seems to be a correlation with age to re-rupture rate (younger an athlete is the more they re-rupture), this equates to approximately 30-40 times more chance of doing an ACL injury

Couldn't find the exact study but I remember in uni I did a report on timing of re-ruptures, a crazy high amount (like 80+%) were within the 24 months after the first injury.

Injured Cruciate Ligament (ACL)? Improve Your Odds of Returning to Sport

Anterior cruciate ligament injuries can be devastating. Fortunately a lot can be done to improve your knee both before & after surgery. Did you know that pre-operative rehab improves your chances of returning to sport after an ACL reconstruction? Read about what you can do to optimise your...

newcastlesportsmedicine.com.au

This one also claims there's more instances of injury in the other ACL

In reality you shouldn’t be playing footy for 24 months after an acl to minimize the risk of re rupture, but there’s no way clubs would want players out for that long. It’s a real worry in the past 5 or so years the amount of 17-20 year olds that are doing acls.

 

[Knightmare]

I think in general those who did their ACL's (Cumberland aside) in the past year have the biggest advantage of COVID-19 shutdowns.

I don't agree with that perception on the basis that guys coming off injuries while having more time to recover is nice and a positive in theory, but once they're back even if it's just training, or match play, they're not really prepaired and it's too big of an adjustment to anything they would be doing at home for all those weeks.

We'll see more Treloar/Buddy situations happening and a lot of injuries this season, at all levels. I think a lot of the veterans will struggle with it, but a lot of those including some of the younger ones coming back from injuries I suspect will struggle also.

It's more if they were at the clubs the whole time just going about their recovery normally and not having to be involved in games that I'd be saying a slower return is a positive over a quicker return.

Injury re-occurrence with some of these kids coming back from long term injuries is something I'm more concerned about than I normally would.

 

[PMBangers]

I don't agree with that perception on the basis that guys coming off injuries while having more time to recover is nice and a positive in theory, but once they're back even if it's just training, or match play, they're not really prepaired and it's too big of an adjustment to anything they would be doing at home for all those weeks.

We'll see more Treloar/Buddy situations happening and a lot of injuries this season, at all levels. I think a lot of the veterans will struggle with it, but a lot of those including some of the younger ones coming back from injuries I suspect will struggle also.

It's more if they were at the clubs the whole time just going about their recovery normally and not having to be involved in games that I'd be saying a slower return is a positive over a quicker return.

Injury re-occurrence with some of these kids coming back from long term injuries is something I'm more concerned about than I normally would.

Where does the assumption we'll see more soft tissue injuries and those returning from long term injuries will be worse off coming from exactly?

You have to assume that majority of players have been keeping up with the conditioning, running and strength programs set by clubs for them to do in isolation, there's no reason to think that's inadequate preparation in returning to training at intensity

 

[Knightmare]

Where does the assumption we'll see more soft tissue injuries and those returning from long term injuries will be worse off coming from exactly?

You have to assume that majority of players have been keeping up with the conditioning, running and strength programs set by clubs for them to do in isolation, there's no reason to think that's inadequate preparation in returning to training at intensity

My assumption and it is an assumption until we see how it plays out, but the assumption comes from them not actually doing real football stuff or anything resembling match simulation. Until match conditions are replicated and they're doing all their usual football thing, I fear for the players that injuries are doing to happen, irrespective of diligence in their time away from the club.

It's a wait and see proposition until we see the matches played, but with that long for a lot of them not playing games or doing that real football stuff, that contact stuff. Even with shorter quarters, I predict a lot of particularly the older players will get into trouble. I'm hoping clubs do a lot of durability and injury prevention focused activities as I think that's going to be a major difference maker for all clubs across all competitions this year if they want a healthy list going into finals.

 

[PMBangers]

My assumption and it is an assumption until we see how it plays out, but the assumption comes from them not actually doing real football stuff or anything resembling match simulation. Until match conditions are replicated and they're doing all their usual football thing, I fear for the players that injuries are doing to happen, irrespective of diligence in their time away from the club.

It's a wait and see proposition until we see the matches played, but with that long for a lot of them not playing games or doing that real football stuff, that contact stuff. Even with shorter quarters, I predict a lot of particularly the older players will get into trouble. I'm hoping clubs do a lot of durability and injury prevention focused activities as I think that's going to be a major difference maker for all clubs across all competitions this year if they want a healthy list going into finals.

Fair enough. To me it's similar to returning from off season, and (without doing any actual research) I'm pretty sure there's no more injuries during that return to training before Christmas than there is during the season, although in fairness players that are higher risk get lighter loads at that time

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Where does the assumption we'll see more soft tissue injuries and those returning from long term injuries will be worse off coming from exactly?

Other leagues: https://www.afl.com.au/news/435743/...eport-reveals-big-threat-afl-footballers-face

AN INVESTIGATION into the early impact of the COVID-19 lockdown has revealed the injury rate in German soccer spiked by more than three times the usual number.

The Bundesliga was the first European soccer competition to return and one of the first sports anywhere in the world.

Dr Joel Mason, an Australian-raised sports scientist and researcher at the Jena Institute of Sport Science in Germany, analysed not only injuries but distance covered and sprint efforts.

Dr Mason's report, based on club and League data, found the pre-lockdown injury rate per game of 0.27 this season climbed to 0.88 in the first batch of Bundesliga matches after resumption.

Beyond that, Dortmund lost five of its starters to muscle strains in the 17-day lead-in to games, which is shorter than the three-and-a-half to four weeks AFL teams will have.

 

[PMBangers]

Other leagues: https://www.afl.com.au/news/435743/...eport-reveals-big-threat-afl-footballers-face

Good read, thanks for that

 

[HereIam86]

Footy loses battle for dual-sport young gun

Wil Parker will pursue a cricket career despite looming as a possible top-20 pick

www.afl.com.au

 

[Knightmare]

Footy loses battle for dual-sport young gun

Wil Parker will pursue a cricket career despite looming as a possible top-20 pick

www.afl.com.au

A loss for AFL clubs as he was inside my top-15.

Had the season gone ahead and there wouldn't be the list size reduction talk, I can't help but think we wouldn't have lost Parker to cricket. I feel like he could have solidified himself as a first rounder.

For context, Parker was probably a 10-30 pick for most coming into the season and for many more down the back end of that, but his second half of 2019 stuff had me liking him up the top end of that range.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Bugger!

had the potential to be this year’s Bailey Smith in terms of VFL/AFL relo’s.

 

[briztoon]

How much is a Vic Cricket contract worth?

He’s already played Sheffield Shield cricket according to the article.

 

[Smythe]

How much is a Vic Cricket contract worth?

He’s already played Sheffield Shield cricket according to the article.

5 wickets in 2 first class matches. Good so far. Will Sutherland was another we lost to cricket (chose Cricket) he has 18 wickets in 5 first class matches. Those kids are going alright.

 

[GWS Goose]

What a position to be in when you get to choose which professional sport you would like to play!

 

[Knightmare]

What a position to be in when you get to choose which professional sport you would like to play!

A lot of these kids are talented in more than one sport.

It's not as uncommon as you'd think. There are a few each year who have that same choice to make. Often it's footy/cricket. Often it's footy/b-ball. For the two most common mixes.

 

[Zurgblade]

A lot of these kids are talented in more than one sport.

It's not as uncommon as you'd think. There are a few each year who have that same choice to make. Often it's footy/cricket. Often it's footy/b-ball. For the two most common mixes.

Do you think that athletes that play both Basketball and footy at higher levels tend to select footy over Basketball? The chances of making a meaningful career in Basketball seems to be pretty low over here.

 

[briztoon]

Do you think that athletes that play both Basketball and footy at higher levels tend to select footy over Basketball? The chances of making a meaningful career in Basketball seems to be pretty low over here.

If they’re genuinely talented, they play bball and go to the States or Europe. Far more money.

 

[Virgin Dog]

What a position to be in when you get to choose which professional sport you would like to play!

I knew a dude who could legitimately have pursued professional careers in basketball, swimming and volleyball. He opted for volleyball, and was in line for the 2016 Olympics before being injured. Meanwhile most people would struggle to even compete at a state level in a single sport