Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Good call on balta.

I too would like to see him given a inside mid go at it.

Very stiff on bolton

Balta for shock factor at stoppages could really catch some teams off-guard and do some damage. Since before he's been drafted I've been such a fan of his talent, and as he keeps improving, that only grows more and more.

Bolton I did include on my list, and still inside my top-50, but no doubt later than most Tigers fans will have him. Age plays a part. Slow career starter. Would like to see him add the quantity to the quality. If he ever does. Watch out! He's excellent already and that kind of addition to his game will earn him All-Australian opportunities possibly.

Adam Cerra the new-age point forward!

Cerra is so easy to fit into any team. Need a midfielder? He can slot in, inside or outside. Need a defender? He can play there. Need a forward? He showed as a junior he can do that too. That's for me the benefit with guys with good skills. If guys don't have good skills, they can play. But when they do have good skills. You just get so much added versatility and optionality with them.

 

[anotherletdown]

Super early to be buying into depth charts just yet but considering what look to be some hits in recent drafts where do you think Sydney should focus their draft capital?

Would like to see a developing ruck and KPD but think now is the time to be adventurous. Look for points of difference players.

I would have said midfield needed urgent attention a few years back but with Blakey, Rowbottom, Warner, Stephens, Campbell, McInerney, Gulden and with Mills moving inside we seem stacked now. KPP's look much better with McCartin and McDonald too.

What type and who should we keep an eye on this year?

 

[big boy jackavoy]

Super early to be buying into depth charts just yet but considering what look to be some hits in recent drafts where do you think Sydney should focus their draft capital?

Would like to see a developing ruck and KPD but think now is the time to be adventurous. Look for points of difference players.

I would have said midfield needed urgent attention a few years back but with Blakey, Rowbottom, Warner, Stephens, Campbell, McInerney, Gulden and with Mills moving inside we seem stacked now. KPP's look much better with McCartin and McDonald too.

What type and who should we keep an eye on this year?

Rhett bazzo would suit you guys well

 

[kaskader]

Balta for shock factor at stoppages could really catch some teams off-guard and do some damage. Since before he's been drafted I've been such a fan of his talent, and as he keeps improving, that only grows more and more.

Bolton I did include on my list, and still inside my top-50, but no doubt later than most Tigers fans will have him. Age plays a part. Slow career starter. Would like to see him add the quantity to the quality. If he ever does. Watch out! He's excellent already and that kind of addition to his game will earn him All-Australian opportunities possibly.



Cerra is so easy to fit into any team. Need a midfielder? He can slot in, inside or outside. Need a defender? He can play there. Need a forward? He showed as a junior he can do that too. That's for me the benefit with guys with good skills. If guys don't have good skills, they can play. But when they do have good skills. You just get so much added versatility and optionality with them.

How do you think Adam Cerra would go in a Total Football style system? Who else (besides the obvious established current Top ~20 players in the league) would you draft for this kind of team?

 

[Knightmare]

Super early to be buying into depth charts just yet but considering what look to be some hits in recent drafts where do you think Sydney should focus their draft capital?

Would like to see a developing ruck and KPD but think now is the time to be adventurous. Look for points of difference players.

I would have said midfield needed urgent attention a few years back but with Blakey, Rowbottom, Warner, Stephens, Campbell, McInerney, Gulden and with Mills moving inside we seem stacked now. KPP's look much better with McCartin and McDonald too.

What type and who should we keep an eye on this year?

Sydney's young core is starting to come together isn't it?

Ruck and key defence are holes, I completely agree, though in defence I feel McCartin could be good enough to fill one of those posts, so it's about finding that complement to him in my mind. General forwards I'd also like to see boosted, along with the inside midfield group. Don't forget Logan McDonald. He can be the super-star from that group.

Through the draft I've still got a lot of the names to learn given the Victorian's weren't playing last year. Through the trade period though there should be some underutilised options, particularly through the ruck who could provide solid solutions. Tom Fullarton fascinates me and I feel can transition to play through the ruck. Otherwise the likes of a Lloyd Meek, or maybe a Matthew Flynn if he has a good year and Preuss comes back and takes over the #1 ruck duties. They're some top of mind to be aware of. Key defence I'd say find the right guys at the right time.

How do you think Adam Cerra would go in a Total Football style system? Who else (besides the obvious established current Top ~20 players in the league) would you draft for this kind of team?

Can you describe 'total football style system' so that I have a precise understanding of your meaning?

Are you hoping for a best-22?

I enjoy players with added versatility and capacity to impact in multiple positions. Think Dusty/Danger. They're great mids, but they can equally go forward and kill you just as easily, separating them from the likes of your Rowell's/Walsh's/Smith's.

Cerra can be that multiple position impact guy, though I'm not expecting quite on that same level. Give me time to consider though and I could consider him even above that younger group potentially, and maybe by seasons end I could rate him that highly.

 

[Knightmare]

The biggest 2021 AFL Draft questions answered: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...unluckiest-players-best-prospects-2020-impact

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Can you describe 'total football style system' so that I have a precise understanding of your meaning?

Every player having the skill and attributes to be interchangeable across every position.

Total Football - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Knightmare]

Every player having the skill and attributes to be interchangeable across every position.

Total Football - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'll take that to mean across more than one line and have an impact.

Lukosius, Balta, Naughton, O.Allen and Blakey as talls would definitely count. Tim English.

Cerra, Z.Williams, Rozee, Hollands, Reef McInnes, Brayden Cook, Archie Perkins, Tarryn Thomas, Brodie Kemp, Patrick Lipinski, Lachlan Jones, Braeden Campbell, Hunter Clark, Jarrod Berry, Jaidyn Stephenson, Tom Atkins, Jordan Dawson.

To give you a quick 22.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Balta for shock factor at stoppages could really catch some teams off-guard and do some damage. Since before he's been drafted I've been such a fan of his talent, and as he keeps improving, that only grows more and more.

Bolton I did include on my list, and still inside my top-50, but no doubt later than most Tigers fans will have him. Age plays a part. Slow career starter. Would like to see him add the quantity to the quality. If he ever does. Watch out! He's excellent already and that kind of addition to his game will earn him All-Australian opportunities possibly.



Cerra is so easy to fit into any team. Need a midfielder? He can slot in, inside or outside. Need a defender? He can play there. Need a forward? He showed as a junior he can do that too. That's for me the benefit with guys with good skills. If guys don't have good skills, they can play. But when they do have good skills. You just get so much added versatility and optionality with them.

I remember reading your balta draft profile and it was excellent in hindsight

 

[Chaisa]

I'll take that to mean across more than one line and have an impact.

Lukosius, Balta, Naughton, O.Allen and Blakey as talls would definitely count. Tim English.

Cerra, Z.Williams, Rozee, Hollands, Reef McInnes, Brayden Cook, Archie Perkins, Tarryn Thomas, Brodie Kemp, Patrick Lipinski, Lachlan Jones, Braeden Campbell, Hunter Clark, Jarrod Berry, Jaidyn Stephenson, Tom Atkins, Jordan Dawson.

To give you a quick 22.

I feel like Sydney in particular have been recruiting a heap of utilities lately - as well as the three you mentioned I'd also have Mills, Heeney, maybe McDonald, maybe Gulden as guys that can have an impact in more than one area of the field.

 

[Knightmare]

I remember reading your balta draft profile and it was excellent in hindsight

I don't recall anyone having Balta nearly as high. He's one I wanted to have even higher at the time, but there was that degree of speculation factor.

I'm not aware of anyone else even having him inside their top-10s, so he's one of my better hits from over the years.

I feel like Sydney in particular have been recruiting a heap of utilities lately - as well as the three you mentioned I'd also have Mills, Heeney, maybe McDonald, maybe Gulden as guys that can have an impact in more than one area of the field.

Sydney do indeed. Mills can play mid/def. Heeney mid/fwd. McDonald is a KPF/wing. They're all at least dual positional which is great. Gulden can play hf/wing which is a more standard position/role.

 

[weltschmerz]

Suns fans might not like that

 

[Marcel Proust]

View attachment 1084752
Suns fans might not like that

He is getting in early

 

[Knightmare]

View attachment 1084752
Suns fans might not like that

I went through listing the teams a bit quickly and that resulted. In the edit I noticed, and added a joke in there for laughs if you get up to when I talk about the King's.

My table at the end with the proportions of players from each team is updated correctly at least.

 

[kaskader]

I'll take that to mean across more than one line and have an impact.

Lukosius, Balta, Naughton, O.Allen and Blakey as talls would definitely count. Tim English.

Cerra, Z.Williams, Rozee, Hollands, Reef McInnes, Brayden Cook, Archie Perkins, Tarryn Thomas, Brodie Kemp, Patrick Lipinski, Lachlan Jones, Braeden Campbell, Hunter Clark, Jarrod Berry, Jaidyn Stephenson, Tom Atkins, Jordan Dawson.

To give you a quick 22.

I was comparing to a sport with 11-a-side and a goalkeeper which is obviously different to an 18-a-side game but agree with most of your selections. I am still thinking it through what level of interchangeability across a whole team would actually be useful in AFL (creating mismatches, breaking down zones/taggers/key backs who want to stay home etc.). Would it be perhaps just non-KPP back flankers, midfielders and forwards that you'd want to rotate around? So perhaps only need like 13/18 players on the ground at any time to be interchangeable (taking away FB, CHB, Ruck, CHF, FF)?

Tom Atkins is an interesting pick, looking forward to watching him this season to see how he goes in defense.

I had no awareness of Reef McInnes, Brayden Cook and Brodie Kemp prior to this so this has been enlightening, thank you. I need to go away and do some digging now!

 

[GUMBLETRON]

1000 subscriber special. Best AFL footballers drafted from 2016 to 2020 top-100 rankings:

Have you considered podcasting this kind of thing? I can't speak for others but I certainly have more opportunities in my life to listen to something for an hour than sit down and watch it, and with a bit more explanation the visual parts wouldn't necessarily be missed - and/or could be published somewhere as a complement.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Have you considered podcasting this kind of thing? I can't speak for others but I certainly have more opportunities in my life to listen to something for an hour than sit down and watch it, and with a bit more explanation the visual parts wouldn't necessarily be missed - and/or could be published somewhere as a complement.

Just listen to the video?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Just listen to the video?

I have been - but you miss the visual elements KM either refers to or doesn't mention at all because they're obviously there, and even something as small as having it available through a podcast app rather than relying on YouTube not ******* up on your unlocked phone in your pocket is a meaningful benefit.

Publishing it through podcasting platforms also potentially opens up a new audience.

 

[Knightmare]

I was comparing to a sport with 11-a-side and a goalkeeper which is obviously different to an 18-a-side game but agree with most of your selections. I am still thinking it through what level of interchangeability across a whole team would actually be useful in AFL (creating mismatches, breaking down zones/taggers/key backs who want to stay home etc.). Would it be perhaps just non-KPP back flankers, midfielders and forwards that you'd want to rotate around? So perhaps only need like 13/18 players on the ground at any time to be interchangeable (taking away FB, CHB, Ruck, CHF, FF)?

Tom Atkins is an interesting pick, looking forward to watching him this season to see how he goes in defense.

I had no awareness of Reef McInnes, Brayden Cook and Brodie Kemp prior to this so this has been enlightening, thank you. I need to go away and do some digging now!

You can always check through my drafts from year prior.

Reef can play in mid/fwd/def/out mid by my preferences.
Cook fwd/def/out mid.
Kemp in mid/kpf/kpd/hff/hbf/wing.

I tend to feel mostly that it's dual role, with just two positions being plenty if you can impact in those spots in those ways. But if they can play three, then that's a bonus.

In completing my AFL Premiership 2007 (game) video, in putting that team together I went with a large focus on positional versatility for the purposes of that team, and I see similar as preferable where possible, conditional on them actually being able to impact games in that other position rather than just making up the numbers and not being anything close to as good as in their best position.

Have you considered podcasting this kind of thing? I can't speak for others but I certainly have more opportunities in my life to listen to something for an hour than sit down and watch it, and with a bit more explanation the visual parts wouldn't necessarily be missed - and/or could be published somewhere as a complement.

I'm open minded in the future to some kind of podcast and have had a number of suggestions along those lines, so I recognise the demand is clearly there.

If my YouTube grows to the kind of size where I create a particularly sizable audience, maybe I do start adding some podcast style content alongside it. Time will be a challenge on my end, and I hope I will have the time just to continue doing what I do both for ESPN and YouTube for as long as possible.

Ultimately in making my channel it was really designed to develop some new skills and get some additional content out there in addition to what I already do for ESPN to appeal to additional audiences, and maybe that has some kind of flow over impact on my Twitter following and ESPN following, or maybe it leads to video opportunities with ESPN, or maybe podcast opportunities with ESPN in the future. I'm pretty open minded to what comes of it, and really it's there to as with everything I do have fun and engage with others over.

Not all of my videos will be long ones, but some of course will be.

One trick is, on YouTube you can watch things in up to x2 speed, so if it goes for 1 1/2 hours, it need only go for 45min. I only discovered that one a couple of months ago now, and I'm watching pretty much everything at x2 speed now. I might hold off on watching AFL games/u18 games at 2x speed, but anything else, it just gets me through so much more content if there is anything I want to get through.

 

[anotherletdown]

Rhett bazzo would suit you guys well

I agree. be interesting to see where our first pick lands and if it'll be enough

 

[flipper83]

1000 subscriber special. Best AFL footballers drafted from 2016 to 2020 top-100 rankings:

Hi km, be interested to hear your thoughts on Latham Vandermeer. Probably a bit unknown outside the Bulldogs but is highly rated internally and would be above Lipinski in match selection pecking order.
A really high impact our possession player so stats don't really tell the story although champion data rated him the best Bulldogs player on the ground in Friday night.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi km, be interested to hear your thoughts on Latham Vandermeer. Probably a bit unknown outside the Bulldogs but is highly rated internally and would be above Lipinski in match selection pecking order.
A really high impact our possession player so stats don't really tell the story although champion data rated him the best Bulldogs player on the ground in Friday night.

Vandermeer I like, but I not nearly as much as with Lipinski, so it's interesting hearing this perspective, with Vandermeer for me more-so at this stage still a developing player who I'm to some extent struggling to see a definite best position for. I see Lipinski as a genuine inside/fwd impact player off of viewings this year (he looks better even than last year) and feel he can be a genuine perennial top-10 on list quality piece, maybe edging even towards that top-5. I'm not seeing nearly that with Vandermeer, so maybe that's me overrating/jumping the gun on Lipinski?

Vandermeer has wheels and can really run with the footy and take on the game. Forward pressure also is good. He had a career game v Collingwood to open the season and I wouldn't disagree with Champion Data for rating that particular performance. Last year I found he struggled winning enough of his own footy, but his 9cp v Collingwood was impressive and a turn for the better and hopefully something we see more of. For me what I wrestle with, with Vandermeer is best position and what he can play to a standard I want. With his run, he could generate a lot of drive off of half-back, but I'm not sure 1v1 if he'd be strong enough, nor whether he would intercept enough. Hf/wing while he has the run and can pressure which are positives, I'd like to see the contested side of his game elevate and for him to become a higher volume accumulator. If he's playing closer to goal, he can apply the forward pressure, and his ground level work v Collingwood was good. Can he become a Dan Butler equivalent? I'm not sure Vandermeer will hit the scoreboard enough, but then again I didn't see Butler on his move to St Kilda hitting the scoreboard like he did last year.

With Vandermeer, where do you see his game being best maximised? Is he a small forward to you? A hf/wing? Running defender in the future?

 

[weltschmerz]

Vandermeer I like, but I not nearly as much as with Lipinski, so it's interesting hearing this perspective, with Vandermeer for me more-so at this stage still a developing player who I'm to some extent struggling to see a definite best position for. I see Lipinski as a genuine inside/fwd impact player off of viewings this year (he looks better even than last year) and feel he can be a genuine perennial top-10 on list quality piece, maybe edging even towards that top-5. I'm not seeing nearly that with Vandermeer, so maybe that's me overrating/jumping the gun on Lipinski?

Vandermeer has wheels and can really run with the footy and take on the game. Forward pressure also is good. He had a career game v Collingwood to open the season and I wouldn't disagree with Champion Data for rating that particular performance. Last year I found he struggled winning enough of his own footy, but his 9cp v Collingwood was impressive and a turn for the better and hopefully something we see more of. For me what I wrestle with, with Vandermeer is best position and what he can play to a standard I want. With his run, he could generate a lot of drive off of half-back, but I'm not sure 1v1 if he'd be strong enough, nor whether he would intercept enough. Hf/wing while he has the run and can pressure which are positives, I'd like to see the contested side of his game elevate and for him to become a higher volume accumulator. If he's playing closer to goal, he can apply the forward pressure, and his ground level work v Collingwood was good. Can he become a Dan Butler equivalent? I'm not sure Vandermeer will hit the scoreboard enough, but then again I didn't see Butler on his move to St Kilda hitting the scoreboard like he did last year.

With Vandermeer, where do you see his game being best maximised? Is he a small forward to you? A hf/wing? Running defender in the future?

I think one reason Dogs fans tend to rate Vandermeer is that our side can be a bit soft and not the quickest. He defies both of those things, he’s a tough player with a bit of a-hole to him, and has genuine wheels. I think he’s best placed as a HFF on our side, our forward line definitely needs his pace and goal sense.

 

[flipper83]

Vandermeer I like, but I not nearly as much as with Lipinski, so it's interesting hearing this perspective, with Vandermeer for me more-so at this stage still a developing player who I'm to some extent struggling to see a definite best position for. I see Lipinski as a genuine inside/fwd impact player off of viewings this year (he looks better even than last year) and feel he can be a genuine perennial top-10 on list quality piece, maybe edging even towards that top-5. I'm not seeing nearly that with Vandermeer, so maybe that's me overrating/jumping the gun on Lipinski?

Vandermeer has wheels and can really run with the footy and take on the game. Forward pressure also is good. He had a career game v Collingwood to open the season and I wouldn't disagree with Champion Data for rating that particular performance. Last year I found he struggled winning enough of his own footy, but his 9cp v Collingwood was impressive and a turn for the better and hopefully something we see more of. For me what I wrestle with, with Vandermeer is best position and what he can play to a standard I want. With his run, he could generate a lot of drive off of half-back, but I'm not sure 1v1 if he'd be strong enough, nor whether he would intercept enough. Hf/wing while he has the run and can pressure which are positives, I'd like to see the contested side of his game elevate and for him to become a higher volume accumulator. If he's playing closer to goal, he can apply the forward pressure, and his ground level work v Collingwood was good. Can he become a Dan Butler equivalent? I'm not sure Vandermeer will hit the scoreboard enough, but then again I didn't see Butler on his move to St Kilda hitting the scoreboard like he did last year.

With Vandermeer, where do you see his game being best maximised? Is he a small forward to you? A hf/wing? Running defender in the future?

I get what you're saying about position, I find it hard to find a similar player to compare him to style wise but Butler is probably not a bad one.

I think his best as a high half forward trying to use his pace in fast rebounds. Not sure he has the intercept marking ability to play half back but he is very good defensively in the air or on the ground. Just has a knack for staying in the contest and affecting his opponent without infringing.

I think his contested game is actually a strength. Not in an inside bull kind of way but in one on ones or even sometimes two on ones in space he always seems to know what to do.

Like weltschmerz said he has a bit of an aggressive streak and loves to take the game on usually making good decisions and using the ball well.

I love seeing the ball in his hands because usually something good will come of it. As you mentioned he needs to find the ball more but I think if he can become a 20 possession per game player he'll be a real matchwinner.

 

[Knightmare]

I get what you're saying about position, I find it hard to find a similar player to compare him to style wise but Butler is probably not a bad one.

I think his best as a high half forward trying to use his pace in fast rebounds. Not sure he has the intercept marking ability to play half back but he is very good defensively in the air or on the ground. Just has a knack for staying in the contest and affecting his opponent without infringing.

I think his contested game is actually a strength. Not in an inside bull kind of way but in one on ones or even sometimes two on ones in space he always seems to know what to do.

Like weltschmerz said he has a bit of an aggressive streak and loves to take the game on usually making good decisions and using the ball well.

I love seeing the ball in his hands because usually something good will come of it. As you mentioned he needs to find the ball more but I think if he can become a 20 possession per game player he'll be a real matchwinner.

If Vandermeer can boost himself to 20d per game, I agree with you that's when he'll become valuable. Or if he's playing close to goal, then his impact would be measured more-so on goals/tackles/pressure/score assists more-so.