Review Knightmare's 2010-2013 top 40

[Knightmare]

I dont mind rating bigs higher then other. I think grundy is fantastic. I still think hes too high. But he does have a ridiculous ceiling.

In regards to Witts, i would still debate whether he is going to make it at afl level. Let alone be catagorised as a better talent then Elliot, Wingard, B.smith, I.Smith, Bennell, Swallow, Prestia, and macrae to name a few. He is tall, but that is not substitute for footballing ability. I just dont see it with him.

With Grundy I look at him as being a historically great ruckman for his age. Simon Madden and Paul Salmon from the get go were both pretty great, but even they both started as forwards before later on taking on ruck minutes.

And with Grundy. He isn't dominant because he is a man-child who grew early and has no upside. He works tirelessly in the gym which has enabled him to physically play strong footy from the get go. Why Grundy is so special in my view is impact games with his influence. His hitout numbers are very deceiving because he will often just pluck it out of the ruck contest and then cleanly by hand or foot find a target. He wins the ground ball and has not unlike Naitanui the strength and power to really drag the ball forward. He tackles very strongly. He also has a midfielders feel with ball in hand where he has composure, uses it well and hits his targets, even finishing with ease from 50m in general play.

If I'm taking any ruckman to start a team with. I would previously have said Naitanui, but I'm really from this year rolling with Grundy who has the better durability and still the influence but a more complete game to go with it.

And on immediate impact. For some perspective. Over the first five rounds before Witts joined Grundy as his ruck partner. Grundy in my rolling list power rankings on current performance I had a two (behind only Pendlebury) and in the best three in each of the Pies first five games where he was the solo ruckman with only the spot minutes going to Jesse White.

So with Grundy for a 3rd year player. He is doing some rare special things for a ruckman of his age and all indications are that he will only continue his rapid growth.

With Witts it depends on what you play him as, as to how impactful he will be. Like with Grundy. He is best utilised as a solo/number one ruckman. And we saw it on the weekend with his performance v Mumford on the weekend winning that matchup in Grundy's absense. If he is stuck as a number two ruckman behind Grundy throughout his playing career, then you are probably right from the standpoint that he doesn't make this list on career impact.

If Witts gets moves over the next couple of seasons to say GWS to learn off Mumford and eventually take over from him whenever Mumford retires. Then Witts I do believe will not only make it but prove to be one of the best ruckmen in the competition by 25/26/27 years of age.

 

[MightyDons4]

From a bias perspective- Luke Parker should be higher imo

Swap him and Crouch

 

[Gumby2Hurley]

Without spending a whole lot of time on it. And with this list, it's so even and open to interpretation, you could move guys 20 or 30 spaces and not be all that wrong. It's just so even and open to interpretation based on career projections.
But a quick top 40 would be:
1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Jesse Hogan
3. Marcus Bontempelli
4. Brodie Grundy
5. Joe Daniher
6. Tom Lynch
7. Oliver Wines
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Patrick Cripps
10. Brad Crouch
11. Jaeger O'Meara
12. Dylan Shiel
13. Adam Treloar
14. Cameron McCarthy
15. Thomas Boyd
16. Jonathon Patton
17. Mark Blicavs
18. Tom McDonald
19. Jeremy McGovern
20. Jake Stringer
21. Luke Parker
22. Tom Liberatore
23. Jarrod Witts
24. Scott Lycett
25. Tom Nicholls
26. Jamie Elliott
27. Chad Wingard
28. Luke Dahlhaus
29. Brodie Smith
30. Elliott Yeo
31. Rory Laird
32. Lachie Neale
33. Jack Billings
34. Jack Martin
35. Bradley Hill
36. Isaac Smith
37. Harley Bennell
38. David Swallow
39. Dion Prestia
Next 5:
40. Jeremy Howe
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Josh Kelly
43. Andrew Gaff
44. Brendon Ellis
45. Jackson Macrae

Curious to where you'd rate Dom Tyson. Gaff should be around where Yeo is imo.

 

[Chaisa]

Putting my Swans goggles on, wonder where Tom Mitchell is.

 

[Knightmare]

Curious to where you'd rate Dom Tyson. Gaff should be around where Yeo is imo.

Dom Tyson would be around 60.

Gaff has stepped things up this season but as an outside type who is skilled and quick without being a penetrator by foot or a freakish linebreaker or without any particularly great contested ball winning ability (though on the improve) he isn't someone I'd be moving up all that much. And only based on his improvement this year has worked his way onto this list.

Yeo and all those general defenders I have in there for a bit of back half representation, as otherwise it would be pretty easy just to go all key forwards and midfielders.

Putting my Swans goggles on, wonder where Tom Mitchell is.

In the NEAFL last season.

Mitchell is in the conversation and can work his way in there. Having a strong season now that he is playing. One of many with a case.

 

[gym4life]

Dom Tyson would be around 60.

Gaff has stepped things up this season but as an outside type who is skilled and quick without being a penetrator by foot or a freakish linebreaker or without any particularly great contested ball winning ability (though on the improve) he isn't someone I'd be moving up all that much. And only based on his improvement this year has worked his way onto this list.

Yeo and all those general defenders I have in there for a bit of back half representation, as otherwise it would be pretty easy just to go all key forwards and midfielders.



In the NEAFL last season.

Mitchell is in the conversation and can work his way in there. Having a strong season now that he is playing. One of many with a case.

Darling would be top 20 let alone not top 45. Just wondering where you would rate sheed?

 

[Knightmare]

Darling would be top 20 let alone not top 45. Just wondering where you would rate sheed?

Sheed would not on that list.

Around 25 from 2013 without going through name by name. So he wouldn't rate in the top 100 from 2010-2013 at this point and would feature again without going through name by name in the 100-150 range broadly I'd imagine at this point until he gets hot at AFL level.

But certainly starting to show signs and showing that he was a worthwhile first round selection.

 

[00Stinger]

List of players in 2015 averaging 20+ disposals and 2+ goals per game:

- Chad Wingard

Drops from 10 to 27 in the list.

Wow.

Why are you so concerned about his opinion?

 

[The Prosecutor]

Knightmare, thoughts on Zach Merrett?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, thoughts on Zach Merrett?

Terrific pick by Essendon the other year.

Looks a best 10-15 player from his draft.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Terrific pick by Essendon the other year.

Looks a best 10-15 player from his draft.

I'll be honest, I'll surprised and disappointed if ends up in that range based on his output to date. I would say he's quite comfortably the most underrated player from that draft pool.

I think it's fair to say Essendon has turned the Crameri loss into a win which is huge given the circumstances of it.

 

[gym4life]

Terrific pick by Essendon the other year.

Looks a best 10-15 player from his draft.

How is sheed 25 and merret 10-15?

 

[Knightmare]

How is sheed 25 and merret 10-15?

I'll be honest, I'll surprised and disappointed if ends up in that range based on his output to date. I would say he's quite comfortably the most underrated player from that draft pool.

I think it's fair to say Essendon has turned the Crameri loss into a win which is huge given the circumstances of it.

A five minute 2013 re-do is something like:
1. Marcus Bontempelli
2. Patrick Cripps
3. Cameron McCarthy
4. Thomas Boyd
5. Jack Billings
--
6. Luke McDonald
7. Kade Kolodjashnij
8. Zach Merrett (turns out going through the names I do have Merrett inside my top 10)
9. Luke Dunstan
10. Lewis Taylor
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. James Aish
13. Tom Langdon
14. Jonathon Marsh
15. Darcy Lang
16. Dom Sheed (turns out Sheed isn't so low either)
17. Anthony Miles
18. Kayne Turner
19. Christian Salem
20. Darcy Gardiner
21. Daniel McStay
22. Billy Hartung
23. Matt Crouch
24. Tom Cutler
25. Nick Robertson

With years there will be a lot of movement. But for now this is probably about right. Again, without spending that much time on it, there could be up to a 10-15 position margin of error after that first 10 as I'm just not that interested to spend more time really going through it, as with my 2010-2013 example above. But they're the rough names in a rough order you'd look at them today.

 

[gym4life]

A five minute 2013 re-do is something like:
1. Marcus Bontempelli
2. Patrick Cripps
3. Cameron McCarthy
4. Thomas Boyd
5. Jack Billings
--
6. Luke McDonald
7. Kade Kolodjashnij
8. Zach Merrett (turns out going through the names I do have Merrett inside my top 10)
9. Luke Dunstan
10. Lewis Taylor
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. James Aish
13. Tom Langdon
14. Jonathon Marsh
15. Darcy Lang
16. Dom Sheed (turns out Sheed isn't so low either)
17. Anthony Miles
18. Kayne Turner
19. Christian Salem
20. Darcy Gardiner
21. Daniel McStay
22. Billy Hartung
23. Matt Crouch
24. Tom Cutler
25. Nick Robertson

With years there will be a lot of movement. But for now this is probably about right. Again, without spending that much time on it, there could be up to a 10-15 position margin of error after that first 10 as I'm just not that interested to spend more time really going through it, as with my 2010-2013 example above. But they're the rough names in a rough order you'd look at them today.

That looks good, think marsh, lang and berg are a bit high.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

A five minute 2013 re-do is something like:
1. Marcus Bontempelli
2. Patrick Cripps
3. Cameron McCarthy
4. Thomas Boyd
5. Jack Billings
--
6. Luke McDonald
7. Kade Kolodjashnij
8. Zach Merrett (turns out going through the names I do have Merrett inside my top 10)
9. Luke Dunstan
10. Lewis Taylor
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. James Aish
13. Tom Langdon
14. Jonathon Marsh
15. Darcy Lang
16. Dom Sheed (turns out Sheed isn't so low either)
17. Anthony Miles
18. Kayne Turner
19. Christian Salem
20. Darcy Gardiner
21. Daniel McStay
22. Billy Hartung
23. Matt Crouch
24. Tom Cutler
25. Nick Robertson

With years there will be a lot of movement. But for now this is probably about right. Again, without spending that much time on it, there could be up to a 10-15 position margin of error after that first 10 as I'm just not that interested to spend more time really going through it, as with my 2010-2013 example above. But they're the rough names in a rough order you'd look at them today.

Don't lose faith in Blake Acres, the guy you rated top 5 in the draft. He's a slow burn but will end up a star. There's a lot going for the kid.

 

[Knightmare]

That looks good, think marsh, lang and berg are a bit high.

Marsh may be Collingwood's best key defender.

He has certainly been the best Collingwood VFL player to this point in the season.

He is a second year key defender who is playing already to an AFL standard. That's not all that common with talls. His game is evolving rapidly. Don't sleep on him.

Don't lose faith in Blake Acres, the guy you rated top 5 in the draft. He's a slow burn but will end up a star. There's a lot going for the kid.

In my haste Acres is another I missed.

At this time I would still fit him in the 15-20 from that group. He isn't there yet on performance but my hope is he develops over the coming seasons.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Without spending a whole lot of time on it. And with this list, it's so even and open to interpretation, you could move guys 20 or 30 spaces and not be all that wrong. It's just so even and open to interpretation based on career projections.
But a quick top 40 would be:
1. Jeremy Cameron
2. Jesse Hogan
3. Marcus Bontempelli
4. Brodie Grundy
5. Joe Daniher
6. Tom Lynch
7. Oliver Wines
8. Dyson Heppell
9. Patrick Cripps
10. Brad Crouch
11. Jaeger O'Meara
12. Dylan Shiel
13. Adam Treloar
14. Cameron McCarthy
15. Thomas Boyd
16. Jonathon Patton
17. Mark Blicavs
18. Tom McDonald
19. Jeremy McGovern
20. Jake Stringer
21. Luke Parker
22. Tom Liberatore
23. Jarrod Witts
24. Scott Lycett
25. Tom Nicholls
26. Jamie Elliott
27. Chad Wingard
28. Luke Dahlhaus
29. Brodie Smith
30. Elliott Yeo
31. Rory Laird
32. Lachie Neale
33. Jack Billings
34. Jack Martin
35. Bradley Hill
36. Isaac Smith
37. Harley Bennell
38. David Swallow
39. Dion Prestia
Next 5:
40. Jeremy Howe
41. Lachie Whitfield
42. Josh Kelly
43. Andrew Gaff
44. Brendon Ellis
45. Jackson Macrae

Do you think Christian Salem would rank in your top 45 if he had more exposed form (fewer injuries/sub vests)? Can't help but feel you've been a tad harsh on Dom Tyson. Second best player last year in the 17th placed side in essentially his second season having played 13 games over 2012/13 with no preseason. Has struggled with injury this year, but still a jet. And where would you rate Jack Viney? Another who I guess has struggled a lot with injury, but has shown some hot form this year.

Out of curiosity, also, where would you have Angus Brayshaw?

Also you must rate Jeremy Howe much more highly than I do! I don't know if I'd have him in the top 75 of those drafts.

 

[Super Hans]

Stringer is #1 he's a freak.

I love Stringer, and Bontempelli, and Libba.. and Macrae. And the rest of the young dogs, but I'm taking Jeremy Cameron #1 by a mile and a half. He's something else.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think Christian Salem would rank in your top 45 if he had more exposed form (fewer injuries/sub vests)? Can't help but feel you've been a tad harsh on Dom Tyson. Second best player last year in the 17th placed side in essentially his second season having played 13 games over 2012/13 with no preseason. Has struggled with injury this year, but still a jet. And where would you rate Jack Viney? Another who I guess has struggled a lot with injury, but has shown some hot form this year.

Out of curiosity, also, where would you have Angus Brayshaw?

Also you must rate Jeremy Howe much more highly than I do! I don't know if I'd have him in the top 75 of those drafts.

Salem has time. I'm just not expecting him to make that best 40 from 2010-2013. He still can be just a good general selection for where he was taken though. If he is top 100 from those four drafts to include prelists/zones etc. That's more the desired/expected outcome that as a fan you'd take. If he ends up better than that, that's a bonus.

Brayshaw and the players of 2014 aren't included here as people were wanting a best 40 from 2010-2013.

But Brayshaw is and will be terrific. He is even looking quicker than last year which is just as a football fan and a fan of all these young men is something I'm really impressed by. Otherwise he is performing as expected with his form this past month roughly what I was expecting of him in season one. He is finding and winning the footy. Doing his work by foot.
He can be of those currently on Melbourne's list a best 3-4 player on Melbourne's list. With only Hogan clearly better. McDonald if you like key defenders may be better. Gawn who knows how good he can be as such an extremely tall guy. And Petracca is that other who has a chance to be better than Brayshaw. Though that's more possible than probable. Jack Viney may push and make a case. Dom Tyson is terrific. So there are some young guys on that list who can really play. And Brayshaw is one of those very best few.
Brayshaw can be a part of Melbourne's leadership. Push close to a an All Australian jumper at his best, be a 250 gamer. Be a best two on list midfielder.
So any way you cut it. I really like Brayshaw.

On Howe. Forward or back he is a difference maker and one of Melbourne's best in my view. He has through 2012/2013/2014 had 120+ marks each season, and had he played 22 games in 2011 he likes would have surpassed this mark also. Whether all things said and done he will remain on that list, who knows. Probably not as he is those few years older, even for his draft class. But on immediate performance he has from the start been terrific and has earned his way on there.
If I put more time into the list he may/may not be there, remember, it was a 5-10 minute job (the most recent update as per the last few updates so allow substantial margin for error and I'd need a few days of really putting time into it to be completely satisfied with that list). I'd have Howe in the discussion though at the very least as someone who on performance has earned his way up there and I'd also add does a lot of things that don't necessarily show up on the stat sheet, with his involvements more often than not meaningful ones in those plays offensively or defensively he is involved in.

 

[jesterwester]

Thanks for the input knightmare- appreciated.

Interesting that Collingwood is playing marsh as a defender now. Wondered where he would find a position, everything I saw pre-draft was how he was adapting to his late growth spurt as a forward. Was so quick and with that mature body would make him a very good defender iMO.
West coast have similar expectations with Tom barass who has been playing very good football at East perth and should get a debut by the end of the year.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the input knightmare- appreciated.

Interesting that Collingwood is playing marsh as a defender now. Wondered where he would find a position, everything I saw pre-draft was how he was adapting to his late growth spurt as a forward. Was so quick and with that mature body would make him a very good defender iMO.
West coast have similar expectations with Tom barass who has been playing very good football at East perth and should get a debut by the end of the year.

Marsh is playing an interesting game.

His history since joining Collingwood was through the first half of 2014 he played forward and was terribly inconsistent and lacking impact. Over the second half of the season he shifted back and found consistency as a stopper and learnt to play a role and beat his guy every week which was a great step.

This year Marsh has continued to add to his game (it's so often wrongly assumed that players will add new things to their games, but Marsh has really added to his game). He is still beating his opponent every week, but has started peeling off his man to take intercept marks, he is starting to take 1v1 marks as opposed to just going for the spoil first. Last year he was not offering any run and carry as he did so well in the u18s but he has certainly over the past month really accelerated when the opportunities have been there and has provided some meaningful run from defence. Footskills are less inconsistent and that one relative weakness.

Marsh is performing to a level where next week he could step into the Collingwood senior team in the place of Frost or Brown, and nothing would be lost. He would offer a different game. No question. But with more tricks and positive things he can contribute towards winning, he more than has the ability to become Collingwood's best key defender (in the world Reid and Moore move into the front half again).


Interesting to hear Barrass is performing well in the WAFL. West Coast, a bit like Adelaide just have a knack not only in identifying good key position players, but really developing them as well as anyone in the game. So it wouldn't shock me, a little like McGovern if West Coast suddenly discovered another tall who can really play strong football.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Why are you so concerned about his opinion?

As Knightmare has been seen as the go to guy for draft prospects on this forum, it's interesting to see how he actually rates players once we've had a good solid view of them at AFL level.

I can then use that to read his opinions on draft prospects with a bit more understanding.

That's why.

 

[Hellgood]

As Knightmare has been seen as the go to guy for draft prospects on this forum, it's interesting to see how he actually rates players once we've had a good solid view of them at AFL level.

I can then use that to read his opinions on draft prospects with a bit more understanding.

That's why.

Was eagerly awaiting his response to this:

Do you think Christian Salem would rank in your top 45 if he had more exposed form (fewer injuries/sub vests)? Can't help but feel you've been a tad harsh on Dom Tyson. Second best player last year in the 17th placed side in essentially his second season having played 13 games over 2012/13 with no preseason. Has struggled with injury this year, but still a jet. And where would you rate Jack Viney? Another who I guess has struggled a lot with injury, but has shown some hot form this year.

Out of curiosity, also, where would you have Angus Brayshaw?

Also you must rate Jeremy Howe much more highly than I do! I don't know if I'd have him in the top 75 of those drafts.

 

[Giant Pete]

A five minute 2013 re-do is something like:
1. Marcus Bontempelli
2. Patrick Cripps
3. Cameron McCarthy
4. Thomas Boyd
5. Jack Billings
--
6. Luke McDonald
7. Kade Kolodjashnij
8. Zach Merrett (turns out going through the names I do have Merrett inside my top 10)
9. Luke Dunstan
10. Lewis Taylor
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. James Aish
13. Tom Langdon
14. Jonathon Marsh
15. Darcy Lang
16. Dom Sheed (turns out Sheed isn't so low either)
17. Anthony Miles
18. Kayne Turner
19. Christian Salem
20. Darcy Gardiner
21. Daniel McStay
22. Billy Hartung
23. Matt Crouch
24. Tom Cutler
25. Nick Robertson

With years there will be a lot of movement. But for now this is probably about right. Again, without spending that much time on it, there could be up to a 10-15 position margin of error after that first 10 as I'm just not that interested to spend more time really going through it, as with my 2010-2013 example above. But they're the rough names in a rough order you'd look at them today.

Marsh? Easy on the pies bias. Normally love your work but he's not above someone like miles, doesn't matter how much of a vfl god he is.

 

[Knightmare]

Was eagerly awaiting his response to this:

Refer to post 569 for the response to the post by Gysberts2Bate though I did miss the Viney part. Viney looks best 60 from 2010-2013.

On Salem. He is some way off certainly being top 40 or top 50 from 2010-2013.

Brayshaw is seriously good and will be one of the very best from last years draft.

Marsh? Easy on the pies bias. Normally love your work but he's not above someone like miles, doesn't matter how much of a vfl god he is.

With Pies players my opinions will always be extremely strong one way or the other.

Grundy, Witts, Marsh, Broomhead, Fasolo and Seedsman relative to most I'll rate more highly than others.

On the other hand for those Pies fans that follow my comments on the Pies board. I'm consistently criticised for being hard on Macaffer, Adams, Greenwood, Kennedy, Blair, Varcoe, White and Sinclair.