Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[TheLastEmperor]

Knightmare,

First off, great job again mate. Where would O'Meara and Crouch rank among this years draftees and how do you compare this years mini draft options compared to last years?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, is the reason you have Shaw going so high because of a lack of depth in key forward options this year? Because from things you've said about him it doesn't sound like he'd be worth a top 10 pick.

Given the choice I wouldn't be taking him top 10 as my power rankings indicate (I like the talent of many of the early draft mids better) but in Brisbane's situation I expect if they don't get Tippett through trade they still need a key forward and probably take Shaw.

There are others who rate Shaw inside their top 10 so it depends on who you ask. He's a tall key forward who over a season has the ability to kick bags of goals and the combination is typically pretty hard to come by. His production this year has been fine. Top 15 selection in any case and has shown more than enough these past two seasons to suggest that he is a clear 1st rounder.

Knightmare,

First off, great job again mate. Where would O'Meara and Crouch rank among this years draftees and how do you compare this years mini draft options compared to last years?

O'Meara would rival Whitfield as the no.1 overall selection and would go either pick 1/2. Crouch would go top 4 overall.

I like last years minidraft group more but this years group is not far behind. Jack Martin looks like a clear top 5 selection next year. Then Hogan and Kelly aren't far behind and would likely go somewhere in the 3-7 range if the draft was held tomorrow.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Does the team that want a mini draft pick (and trade for one) have to nominate who they will take with that pick, or is it just like the normal draft, where they just have their pick and take whoever they want?

The reason I ask is that I was reading some stuff from last year, where someone said that Adelaide wanted Kennedy in the mini draft (last year), but that GWS wanted too much for him, so they took Crouch instead. Is that correct, or could Adelaide still have taken Kennedy in that mini draft, but instead chose Crouch ahead of him?

 

[Knightmare]

Does the team that want a mini draft pick (and trade for one) have to nominate who they will take with that pick, or is it just like the normal draft, where they just have their pick and take whoever they want?

The reason I ask is that I was reading some stuff from last year, where someone said that Adelaide wanted Kennedy in the mini draft (last year), but that GWS wanted too much for him, so they took Crouch instead. Is that correct, or could Adelaide still have taken Kennedy in that mini draft, but instead chose Crouch ahead of him?

GWS don't have any say in who clubs can/can not select with their selections. They only have a say in who they trade their two remaining minidraft selections to.

The players themselves get to enter the minidraft (those born in the first 4 months of 1995). Jack Martin, Jesse Hogan and Josh Kelly are the frontrunners and two of these should make up the two minidraft selections.
Luke McDonald (NM - F/S) was also eligable but decided not to enter committing to North Melbourne for next years draft.

Last year it was a case of Adelaide chose Brad Crouch instead of Ben Kennedy thinking that he was the better selection and I think they got that call right.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Cool mate, thanks for clearing that up.

 

[MR]

A bit of a debate on the Tiger board.

If you were the head recruiter at Richmond, who would you rather have for the same price. Dom Tyson or Oliver Wines.

On your top 30 from '10, '11, '12 drafts you have Wines at 20 and Tyson at 21, but you seemed fairly adamant in the thread on the trade board that Tyson was worth much more than pick 9. You currently have Wines going to us at 9 so could you please explain further?

 

[Keystone agony]

A bit of a debate on the Tiger board.

If you were the head recruiter at Richmond, who would you rather have for the same price. Dom Tyson or Oliver Wines.

On your top 30 from '10, '11, '12 drafts you have Wines at 20 and Tyson at 21, but you seemed fairly adamant in the thread on the trade board that Tyson was worth much more than pick 9. You currently have Wines going to us at 9 so could you please explain further?

Its rare that you can give up a much lower pick in pick 9 for a top 3 pick the year previous. Clubs just dont do that.

I think Wines vs Tyson would purely be based on richmonds needs as they are very much different players and Richmon have a few guys like Martin, Cotchin, Deledio, Conca, Grigg ect who will be around in the richmond midfield for quite some time. So whatever compliments them best.

Pick 9 for a pick 3 player seems fairly similar to offering pick 19 for a pick 7 player and GWS have done exactly what GC have done in targeting the best player in your team in terms of future value in Cotchin like they did with Hurley which is quite unreasonable and is a way of saying "piss off"

 

[Damo80]

Pick 9 for a pick 3 player seems fairly similar to offering pick 19 for a pick 7 player

Or perhaps KM's ranking is an indication of the comparative strength, and depth of this year's draft compared to last years... in which case, comparing pick 19 in last year's draft to Caddy's worth, is possibly nothing like comparing pick 9 in this year's draft to Tyson's worth. In the end, 3, or 9, 7 or 19... it's just numbers... Clubs need to evaluate the player (or potential player they would draft in the case of a draft pick) and determine their worth.

Considering Tyson is contracted, and GWS will want to make a stand that their kids are off limits, I can't see a deal being done.

 

[Knightmare]

A bit of a debate on the Tiger board.

If you were the head recruiter at Richmond, who would you rather have for the same price. Dom Tyson or Oliver Wines.

On your top 30 from '10, '11, '12 drafts you have Wines at 20 and Tyson at 21, but you seemed fairly adamant in the thread on the trade board that Tyson was worth much more than pick 9. You currently have Wines going to us at 9 so could you please explain further?

I really like Oliver Wines' game but I'd take Dom Tyson. Not only does he have a great inside game but also has a better outside game than Wines. Tyson's production is hard to go past when up and about.

Tyson will cost more than pick 9 to add and would require an additional young talent of value but if you can get him he would be an excellent get.

I'd need to have another look at my top 30 from 2010-2012 rankings. Admittedly I haven't spent enough time tweaking it (eg. Darling too low) as I would my yearly mock drafts and I'd like to go over my final rankings of this years draft group before I can really place where I'd put them relative to those from previous drafts (eg. Jackson Macrae should work his way into my 30 come draft time with what he has shown this past month) but I would take Tyson first.

Its rare that you can give up a much lower pick in pick 9 for a top 3 pick the year previous. Clubs just dont do that.

I think Wines vs Tyson would purely be based on richmonds needs as they are very much different players and Richmon have a few guys like Martin, Cotchin, Deledio, Conca, Grigg ect who will be around in the richmond midfield for quite some time. So whatever compliments them best.

Pick 9 for a pick 3 player seems fairly similar to offering pick 19 for a pick 7 player and GWS have done exactly what GC have done in targeting the best player in your team in terms of future value in Cotchin like they did with Hurley which is quite unreasonable and is a way of saying "piss off"

I like this thinking and I agree with much of this.

It's very difficult to move up. It will mean giving up a seriously good player in addition to the selection so you really have to be certain Tyson is a star.

Also agree about picking the guy that fits best with the midfield group. Both are good fits but it depends where Richmond see Martin and Conca developing and maybe that helps decide who would be the better fit.

Still no guarantee Wines will be available but he is one who potentially could be available and could be a fit for Richmond.

 

[Knightmare]

Martin_Riewoldt

Try this as a top 30 (2010-2012 update).

1. Jeremy Cameron
2. David Swallow
3. Toby Greene
4. Joe Daniher
5. Jonathan Patton
6. Harley Bennell
7. Jaeger O'Meara
8. Lachie Whitfield
9. Zac Smith
10. Jack Darling
11. Brad Crouch
12. Brodie Grundy
13. Adam Treloar
14. Stephen Coniglio
15. Dylan Shiel
16. Tom Lynch
17. Sam Day
18. Dom Tyson
19. Jack Viney
20. Jackson Macrae
21. Billy Longer
22. Jimmy Toumpas
23. Andrew Gaff
24. Dyson Heppell
25. Tomas Bugg
26. Chad Wingard
27. Josh Caddy
28. Oliver Wines
29. Jonathan Giles
30. Tom Mitchell


Some of those from this years draft I might still shuffle some but this is probably about as close as I can get for the moment.

Clubs will surely have their own views and my view is hardly representative of the thoughts of others. Just one potential interpretation to get some kind of feel for where all these might sit if grouped into some sort of order.

 

[jacob fairlow]

Patrick Wilson likeliness to get listed?

 

[Knightmare]

Patrick Wilson likeliness to get listed?

Still have plenty of player comparisons to come.

Some similarities to Corey Enright with his running game and like Enright can play down back or wing to a high standard.

 

[bananatigz]

Can you see Lee going earlier then #56? would love to see the tiges take him at 50, seems to have a lot going for him in my eyes, can see him slotting in next to vickery and jroo quite nicely.

 

[Knightmare]

Can you see Lee going earlier then #56? would love to see the tiges take him at 50, seems to have a lot going for him in my eyes, can see him slotting in next to vickery and jroo quite nicely.

Lee could come into consideration from somewhere in the 2nd round but fair chance he is available at 50.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

What's holding Nathan Hrovat back? From what I've heard he's been a real standout this year however most phantasy drafts have him sliding to mid second round.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Height.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Height.

I understand that he's very short however he still dominates clearances and has very good skills. I hope St Kilda look at him with our second round pick if he's still avail.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

I understand that he's very short however he still dominates clearances and has very good skills. I hope St Kilda look at him with our second round pick if he's still avail.

I agree - he's a great player.

 

[Keystone agony]

Relies on his footy smarts and one of the best ive seen at making multiple contest a similar asset which has seen Greene do well.

A strong championships and winning plenty of footy in the TAC cup should mean he is drafted top 40 however i think clubs see height as a big weakness for a player like him to go really high.

 

[Knightmare]

The curious thing with Hrovat is that he is much the same height at Viney and everyone has Viney in their top 10 so it is a curious question considering how Hrovat has such a complete game. I think Hrovat could well measure in taller than he is listed which might have some bump him up their rankings some. Maybe around 176cm.

He has a strong body and with that some consider his update lower - not that it matters with Hrovat. Just means you have a guy who can play tomorrow.

The other factor is relative lack of speed. Most clubs in these sub 175cm types really like explosive speed and this is the one category Hrovat rates only average which is why some will skip over him.


Personally I'm not at all worried about any of this. Other than pace/height the rest of his game is there and while he doesn't project as an A-grader he is a plug and play mid who can contribute right away in a big way. Excellent player already.

Probably not a first rounder, but in the 2nd or 3rd round looks a ripper.

 

[Damo80]

May not be height, per se, but a perceived lack of upside.

 

[Bradschi]

G'day KM,
There are talks among the Carlton supporters at our own board that we might be able to trade pick 11 for Josh Caddy and Josh Toy. Now I was just trying to find threads and media articles about him and I even remember reading at one stage that some people were saying that if he went through the national draft he would have been a top 3 selection. Do you know reasons or heard rumours as to why he hasn't really come on? and would a change of environment be that helpful to him if he was to come to us? also how would you rate him in terms of this year's rankings?

 

[Knightmare]

G'day KM,
There are talks among the Carlton supporters at our own board that we might be able to trade pick 11 for Josh Caddy and Josh Toy. Now I was just trying to find threads and media articles about him and I even remember reading at one stage that some people were saying that if he went through the national draft he would have been a top 3 selection. Do you know reasons or heard rumours as to why he hasn't really come on? and would a change of environment be that helpful to him if he was to come to us? also how would you rate him in terms of this year's rankings?

There will be strong competition for both Caddy and Toy and I suspect a number of other clubs will put forward stronger offers.

Caddy alone is still worth a top 10 selection. Toy could probably on his own be had for a 2nd round selection but you'd want a selection in the 5-10 range/ two first round selections or equivalent to have any chance at getting a deal done with Gold Coast for the pair.
So in Carlton's situation to make a play at the pair you'd probably need to add Lachie Henderson or some other young player who would appeal to Gold Coast in addition to that 1st rounder to have a genuine shot and probably at the end of the day land the pair.

On Toy. It has been a combination of factors. Go home factor - just not feeling comfortable in QLD. He's played shut down roles - which he isn't suited to playing and with the quantity of ball going into that back half it's not easy to defend that as more of an attacking back flanker. Also just hasn't developed these past really three seasons and despite being considered a top 2 guy prior to his draft year (having been so physically developed and dominant as a junior) he has really stagnated since and probably taken a few steps back every season since disappointingly.
It just depends with Toy on whether the move home to Victoria and into a more established club will see his game turn around or not. That's the bet you are taking with Toy.
I think he can turn it around at the right club, if played in the right role. But a large number of those closer to the situation don't share my optimism.

 

[Bradschi]

There will be strong competition for both Caddy and Toy and I suspect a number of other clubs will put forward stronger offers.

Caddy alone is still worth a top 10 selection. Toy could probably on his own be had for a 2nd round selection but you'd want a selection in the 5-10 range/ two first round selections or equivalent to have any chance at getting a deal done with Gold Coast for the pair.
So in Carlton's situation to make a play at the pair you'd probably need to add Lachie Henderson or some other young player who would appeal to Gold Coast in addition to that 1st rounder to have a genuine shot and probably at the end of the day land the pair.

On Toy. It has been a combination of factors. Go home factor - just not feeling comfortable in QLD. He's played shut down roles - which he isn't suited to playing and with the quantity of ball going into that back half it's not easy to defend that as more of an attacking back flanker. Also just hasn't developed these past really three seasons and despite being considered a top 2 guy prior to his draft year (having been so physically developed and dominant as a junior) he has really stagnated since and probably taken a few steps back every season since disappointingly.
It just depends with Toy on whether the move home to Victoria and into a more established club will see his game turn around or not. That's the bet you are taking with Toy.
I think he can turn it around at the right club, if played in the right role. But a large number of those closer to the situation don't share my optimism.

Well just for argument's sake say we give up pick 11 and a sweetener like David Ellard, because he is a decent inside player and just works his butt off, that seems a bit reasonable doesn't it? And like you said he has stagnated and hasn't really performed that well, so doesn't that naturally mean his value will drop down? Plus for a player, who isn't getting games in the ones in a new developing side and demands a first round pick is a bit ridiculous isn't it? I mean second round is reasonable but first round for a bloke who, like you said, hasn't really improved in the past 3 years is just a bit over the top.
btw I am not saying that deal will happen, just saying "what if" kinda thing.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

From what I've heard GC will help Toy find a new home or end up delisting him.