Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Knightmare]

Well just for argument's sake say we give up pick 11 and a sweetener like David Ellard, because he is a decent inside player and just works his butt off, that seems a bit reasonable doesn't it? And like you said he has stagnated and hasn't really performed that well, so doesn't that naturally mean his value will drop down? Plus for a player, who isn't getting games in the ones in a new developing side and demands a first round pick is a bit ridiculous isn't it? I mean second round is reasonable but first round for a bloke who, like you said, hasn't really improved in the past 3 years is just a bit over the top.
btw I am not saying that deal will happen, just saying "what if" kinda thing.

Ellard I can't imagine would get it done for both Caddy and Toy, Ellard good but not great midfielder and when that Gold Coast list is developed and at the peak of its powers would surely not make that midfield rotation so he isn't a particularly meaningful addition in their long term build. Gold Coast need a young key defender first and if not then their other priority is future draft picks.In trades you really need to look at what the other club wants and where their holes are.

For Toy on his own it won't require a 1st round selection and he will be easy enough to get. For Caddy there is considerably more demand and with that comes a need for a selection inside the top 10 or better.

 

[Bradschi]

Ellard I can't imagine would get it done for both Caddy and Toy, Ellard good but not great midfielder and when that Gold Coast list is developed and at the peak of its powers would surely not make that midfield rotation so he isn't a particularly meaningful addition in their long term build. Gold Coast need a young key defender first and if not then their other priority is future draft picks.In trades you really need to look at what the other club wants and where their holes are.

For Toy on his own it won't require a 1st round selection and he will be easy enough to get. For Caddy there is considerably more demand and with that comes a need for a selection inside the top 10 or better.

In my view I reckon Geelong would be the frontrunners in chasing Caddy because they have a Ablett compensation pick that lasts until 2014, and with the way GCS is delisting blokes atm, that would suit them the most, and makes most sense in a way.

From what I've heard GC will help Toy find a new home or end up delisting him.

If there is any truth to it then his values must have plummeted

 

[Knightmare]

In my view I reckon Geelong would be the frontrunners in chasing Caddy because they have a Ablett compensation pick that lasts until 2014, and with the way GCS is delisting blokes atm, that would suit them the most, and makes most sense in a way.

Geelong are seriously in the mix. St Kilda if they lose Goddard same. Collingwood if Cloke leaves. Richmond are in the mix. Melbourne. Western Bulldogs can be if they want to be. Plenty of clubs can and have the assets to make a play at Caddy.

 

[Damo80]

As I understand it, Toy is rumoured to have health issues that are seriously limiting his athletic/endurance ability. Basically, I've heard he's r**ted.

 

[Knightmare]

As I understand it, Toy is rumoured to have health issues that are seriously limiting his athletic/endurance ability. Basically, I've heard he's r**ted.

Can't say I've heard anything about this but interesting if true. Would love a link if there is any more detailed info because I'd love to know more.

Clubs will do their medicals and make up their own minds.

 

[tigs2010]

Can't say I've heard anything about this but interesting if true. Would love a link if there is any more detailed info because I'd love to know more.

Clubs will do their medicals and make up their own minds.

Heard from a recruiter his heart is ****ed.

 

[Blakesta123]

Any chance at all that people are wrong and somebody else finds themselves #1?? Just interested

 

[Nemisis]

Any chance at all that people are wrong and somebody else finds themselves #1?? Just interested

very good point - I dont think the no. 1 spot is that clear cut - gws could be looking at Grundy or there is an outside chance that they take Mayes. Mayes has x factor and would complete and awsome future forward line.

 

[Silvagnis]

There will be strong competition for both Caddy and Toy and I suspect a number of other clubs will put forward stronger offers.

Caddy alone is still worth a top 10 selection. Toy could probably on his own be had for a 2nd round selection but you'd want a selection in the 5-10 range/ two first round selections or equivalent to have any chance at getting a deal done with Gold Coast for the pair.

So in Carlton's situation to make a play at the pair you'd probably need to add Lachie Henderson or some other young player who would appeal to Gold Coast in addition to that 1st rounder to have a genuine shot and probably at the end of the day land the pair.

The ball isn't really in their court with both Toy and Caddy out of contract. No chance that we'd give up pick 11 and Henderson for Caddy and Toy. Suns fans think Toy is a chance to be delisted. A 196 cm swingman such as Henderson would be untouchable from a Carlton perspective.

For Caddy there is considerably more demand and with that comes a need for a selection inside the top 10 or better.

How does Caddy compare to the players we could draft with pick 11?

If the Suns want us to better our offer of pick 11 and a sweetener, then I'm prepared to back our recruiters with that pick. Certain that we can get a player who could be in our top 15.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Can't say I've heard anything about this but interesting if true. Would love a link if there is any more detailed info because I'd love to know more.

Clubs will do their medicals and make up their own minds.

Ask and ye shall receive, my man (well at least here's a place to start!):

He's OK, just cannot build anything like the required level of fitness, due to his heart condition.
Not being able to run fast for long is kind of a drawback for budding AFL players

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-of-trade-trade-rumours-part-ii.973149/page-17

 

[MightySaints]

So who invited him?

I would imagine the organizers of the screening ?

Will be interested to see where Shaw ends up. Really don't want him at St Kilda.

 

[Knightmare]

Any chance at all that people are wrong and somebody else finds themselves #1?? Just interested

Whitfield has always been the consensus no.1 selection and it's hard to see anyone moving past him for that top selection.

I think it's very possible that some other players go past him but that top selection looks his with no rumours suggesting otherwise.

The ball isn't really in their court with both Toy and Caddy out of contract. No chance that we'd give up pick 11 and Henderson for Caddy and Toy. Suns fans think Toy is a chance to be delisted. A 196 cm swingman such as Henderson would be untouchable from a Carlton perspective.

How does Caddy compare to the players we could draft with pick 11?

If the Suns want us to better our offer of pick 11 and a sweetener, then I'm prepared to back our recruiters with that pick. Certain that we can get a player who could be in our top 15.

I'd be taking Caddy over pick 11 given the choice but it's entirely possible pick 11 turns out to be something better. Maybe a Wines/Stringer/Garlett/Menzel or whoever is available could turn out better but with the draft still a lottery the known quantity if often better and Caddy has done enough to show he is worth where he was selected.

But in Carlton's situation I'd probably just look to the draft also. There are other clubs better situated to make a play at Caddy.

Pick 11 can always been on the table and you can also offer up later draft pick upgrades but at the end of the day I don't see something like this being enough and I don't see a depth/mid level talent moving pick 11 up enough.

And I agree Henderson is quality. Don't rate him as a forward but as a key defender I think he can become very good.

Ask and ye shall receive, my man (well at least here's a place to start!):

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-of-trade-trade-rumours-part-ii.973149/page-17

Thanks for the link.

I'd like to hear a confirmed report from the media/ some content from the club confirming this but I'll keep this in the back of the mind with Toy.

 

[Keystone agony]

I know youve probably already answered this KM but how does this crop compare to the last few years. From what i thought it looked extremely strong about 12 months ago. Alot of these players showed more the previous year than probably this year. Shaw looked a future star tall forward. Stringer had injury troubles. No doubt in my mind Garlett, Simpson and Taylor have all gone backwards for WA. A.Carter was probably a top 20 pick and may still well be but hes had an injury prone year. Mayes had a great U18 carnival the previous year. Im not really rating the top end that much and everyone seems like they have plenty of risk that come with them. Menzel continuing injuries. I even doubt Whitfield as being anywhere near Congilio/Swallow in the previous drafts as the best midfielder. Also something i dont like as much with this group is they seem quite light on, skinny underdeveloped compared to previous years.

 

[Talentman]

I would imagine the organizers of the screening ?

Will be interested to see where Shaw ends up. Really don't want him at St Kilda.

What dont you understand?

The players who are invited to the screenings, receive an invite from a club.

Those who do not receive an invitation are not allowed to attend.

As it currently stands, Chalmers has received no invitation from any club to attend either the national combine, nor the State screening.

 

[Knightmare]

I know youve probably already answered this KM but how does this crop compare to the last few years. From what i thought it looked extremely strong about 12 months ago. Alot of these players showed more the previous year than probably this year. Shaw looked a future star tall forward. Stringer had injury troubles. No doubt in my mind Garlett, Simpson and Taylor have all gone backwards for WA. A.Carter was probably a top 20 pick and may still well be but hes had an injury prone year. Mayes had a great U18 carnival the previous year. Im not really rating the top end that much and everyone seems like they have plenty of risk that come with them. Menzel continuing injuries. I even doubt Whitfield as being anywhere near Congilio/Swallow in the previous drafts as the best midfielder. Also something i dont like as much with this group is they seem quite light on, skinny underdeveloped compared to previous years.

Stronger draft this year. I don't mind the top 20 this year and there is some better depth available not only mid draft but also later draft which probably hasn't been there to the same extent these past two years.

The issue in 2010 + 2011 was all those prelisted players, zone selections then mature agers prelisted then traded and the drafts get watered down pretty quick.

Add these back into the drafts along with the minidraft types and I'd rate the 2010-2012 drafts as all reasonable strong and while different all of a reasonably similar strength - clearly not superdraft strong but all well above average.

The curious thing this year is probably less players have come from far back as usual then many of those considered potential top end prospects this year just haven't performed or elevated their games as expected- Chalmers, Yarran, Taylor, Hayes, Simpson and J.Stewart among others which is why many have really lowered their expectations of this draft group after high hopes last year of a near superdraft.

Whitfield is somewhat different to Swallow/Coniglio. I'd take Swallow first of the trio but Whitfield v Coniglio is still too early to call and I'd possibly lean towards Whitfield at this early stage.

Macrae is still pretty thin along with O'Rourke and Whitfield but there are plenty of men in this draft. Membrey is an imposing figure. Stringer is very strongly build. So is Viney, Hrovat, McDonough and Lonergan among others. Just depends on who you look at.

 

[Talentman]

There's absolutely no way this years draft is better than last years.

 

[Knightmare]

There's absolutely no way this years draft is better than last years.

I'd take this years draft assuming we are only including those who went on draft day and don't count those prelisted among others who found other ways onto the team lists.

I'm still not all that high on the top end from last year. Buntine, Haynes and Sumner of the top enders I don't rate all that highly. Then the depth was very poor - and clubs knowing this limited the number of selections they took on draft day.

The top 15, possible 20 this year I'm really comfortable with and see much more quality coming from this group.

KPPs/rucks no better than this year and were an even more shallow group last year.

 

[Tulip]

There's absolutely no way this years draft is better than last years.

Slightly unhappy with your crop?

 

[Trav 20]

Martin_Riewoldt

Try this as a top 30 (2010-2012 update).

3. Toby Greene
19. Jack Viney

Some of those from this years draft I might still shuffle some but this is probably about as close as I can get for the moment.

I see this as a futile exercise as you need years in the system to make any sort of accurate assessment, but it interests me how you come to some of your conclusions.

Viney played with Greene at Ashburton Juniors and was always better, as his 4 B&F's in a row attest. Viney played with Greene at Oakleigh Chargers and was always considered better. Viney was BOG in the losing GF a year ago in which Green was a teammate. But based on one year in the AFL Greene is supposedly a superior prospect.

Viney has always been the better junior and inside mid, which for me is significant.

 

[MightySaints]

What dont you understand?

The players who are invited to the screenings, receive an invite from a club.

Those who do not receive an invitation are not allowed to attend.

As it currently stands, Chalmers has received no invitation from any club to attend either the national combine, nor the State screening.

Okay, you must be right.

This year draft has so much more depth. Would take it over last years easily. While it is not the 'super' draft some pumped it up to be, It is still a very good crop. Especially considering some of the guys likely to go have battled serious injuries.

 

[Talentman]

Okay, you must be right.

This year draft has so much more depth. Would take it over last years easily. While it is not the 'super' draft some pumped it up to be, It is still a very good crop. Especially considering some of the guys likely to go have battled serious injuries.

So Chalmers has an invite?

 

[Talentman]

Slightly unhappy with your crop?

WA is a very average state to draft from this year outside the mini draft selections.

 

[Knightmare]

I see this as a futile exercise as you need years in the system to make any sort of accurate assessment, but it interests me how you come to some of your conclusions.

Viney played with Greene at Ashburton Juniors and was always better, as his 4 B&F's in a row attest. Viney played with Greene at Oakleigh Chargers and was always considered better. Viney was BOG in the losing GF a year ago in which Green was a teammate. But based on one year in the AFL Greene is supposedly a superior prospect.

Viney has always been the better junior and inside mid, which for me is significant.

I'm 100% with you that Viney was the better junior and playing side by side even though a year younger Viney was always my pick of the pair. Until this year seeing Greene produce at AFL level.

The thing with Greene though is that it was in his 18th year that he really established himself and came into his own. From the u18 champs and in that second half of the season his output continued to improve but then has taken an even greater leap forward since joining GWS where he has what I can only imagine for a first year player are near record numbers and this is where the real point of difference comes from.

Viney has always been a great player and I think he has the opportunity to be one of Melbourne's future captains and a real culture changer with his hard play (think Luke Hodge hard + a little more) but I can't see his production exceeding that of Greene and because of that he is rated lower.

A rating in my top 20 from 2010-2012 suggests he will go onto great things and likely develop into a genuine A-grader. Greene I have more in the Joel Selwood category - great immediate player and one of the leagues absolute elite and a potential top 2-3 midfielder all things said and done assuming he continues his development.

Being a better junior doesn't always mean being a better AFL footballer and while it's all well and good to have dominated as a junior I rate players on what I expect they will achieve over their AFL careers and that alone in this rating.

 

[Trav 20]

Viney has always been a great player and I think he has the opportunity to be one of Melbourne's future captains and a real culture changer with his hard play (think Luke Hodge hard + a little more) but I can't see his production exceeding that of Greene and because of that he is rated lower.

Viney will be a better inside mid and inside mids are the most influential mids in the game. Just as you incorrectly pegged Greene in his draft year I think you've been seduced by his stats in the AFL. And that's in no way a knock on Greene. But I don't see a tonne of upside from here.

We'll agree to differ.

 

[Knightmare]

Viney will be a better inside mid and inside mids are the most influential mids in the game. Just as you incorrectly pegged Greene in his draft year I think you've been seduced by his stats in the AFL. And that's in no way a knock on Greene. But I don't see a tonne of upside from here.

We'll agree to differ.

Greene (many Vic viewers probably haven't watched much of GWS this season) but his inside game is already among the best in the league and it's actually the inside aspects of his game that make him stand out. Like Viney he is that same aggressive inside ball winner but wins more of the contested footy more consistenty and also at this early stage uses it slightly better in close in these pressure situations.
It's more in the development he has demonstrated this year - and I think Greene is an entirely different player this year such has been his development. There is great substance to his game and it's not like a Scully where if he collects 40 disposals, 39 will be outside. Greene is a very powerful inside player and is very much of the J.Selwood variety and early signs suggest he will possibly go past Joel.

You don't have to be an athletic type to have upside. You just need some standout attributes and you have to get to work on improving and that's clearly what Toby has done these past couple of seasons improving dramatically. Toby is incredible in close, not only winning his own ball but when he has it he has a real natural awareness of what is around him and can feed it off quickly and beautifully in tight and has a natural quickness to him.

It's like Jobe Watson when he was playing early career. Who saw upside? He was considered slow and who knew he would develop into a star inside midfielder. Josh Kennedy (Sydney) has developed into an incredibly powerful and incredibly complete midfielder since his stint at Hawthorn and while not an athlete has really broken through into an absolutely dominant and probable top 3 league midfielder. Who saw this coming?
Toby Greene has shown the development and when someone is developing consistently, and consistently quickly - and not coming back the same player every season. This is when you know a guy can continue to improve and it's through this year to year improvement that you can better get an indication of upside.

Having watched plenty of Viney these past two seasons I also think he can become one of the most influence mids in the game, it's more the ranking of Greene where we differ and I don't see his upside as being nearly as limited as you do.

You've got a beauty in Viney and he will change Melbourne. I've said it for the past year and a half and I'm very confident that he will be a big difference maker in that midfield.