Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[aussierulesrules]

They could potentially package two of their picks and swap them for one higher pick from another club, though (eg. picks 25 and 27 for pick 16, or something like that, as Geelong have done successfully recently), or package one with someone they trade (like Caddy or Toy- eg. Toy and pick 27 for pick 22, or whatever). I doubt they will get anything higher than pick 27 for Hickey and Knightmare reckons even that is too high. They do have to trim their list though and this sort of thing is probably the way they will do it.

 

[HereIam86]

Hey Knightmare have you seen much of Jake McKenzie the younger brother of the Suns trent? Also do you see him going in the ND or RD and can he kick like his brother? I reckon the Suns will draft him so they have the two brothers.

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah, the Bulldogs is what is being discussed in other threads, but it could of course be off the mark and to be more specific, the full suggestion was our pick 12 or 13 and 27 for Caddy and Hickey, if Goddard leaves, as expected.

Interesting trade. Probably closing in on the value that would need to be forward but maybe Gold Coast can do slightly better for Caddy.

Pick 27 or similar wont be any good to the suns for Hickey - they will probably only take 3 pick

Are you confusing Hickey with Sam Day?

Hickey hasn't done all that much and wouldn't be worth more than a 2nd round selection as a best case scenario.

Hey Knightmare have you seen much of Jake McKenzie the younger brother of the Suns trent? Also do you see him going in the ND or RD and can he kick like his brother? I reckon the Suns will draft him so they have the two brothers.

Think of him as a less explosive version of his brother. Still a very good user of the footy but doesn't have that same penetration on his kicking.

 

[THE_GUN]

Sorry KM perhaps i didnt make my self clear, Its not that i rate Hickey highly- More that i dont believe pick 27 will be any good to them unless ontraded to improve their other selections.

 

[Bert Man]

Hi KM what are Daniel Robinsons chances of getting drafted? I thought he had a reasonable champs. Would he be rookie chance?

 

[SydneyPhilly]

Hi KM what are Daniel Robinsons chances of getting drafted? I thought he had a reasonable champs. Would he be rookie chance?

Swans scholarship holder Daniel Robinson, or another Daniel Robinson?

 

[Bert Man]

Swans scholarship holder Daniel Robinson, or another Daniel Robinson?

Yeah I looked it up I think so. Sydney are lucky they got a good player on their hands.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM what are Daniel Robinsons chances of getting drafted? I thought he had a reasonable champs. Would he be rookie chance?

Had a very impressive game one to the champs as that strong inside midfielder. Should just go straight onto the Sydney rookie list as a NSW/ACT scholarship holder.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Interesting trade. Probably closing in on the value that would need to be forward but maybe Gold Coast can do slightly better for Caddy.

No worries. Personally, I would probably prefer for us to keep that pick and take the punt on Stringer, if he is still there, as many seem to expect he will be now. If we are replacing Goddard, he sounds like the most well matched option that has come along in a long time.

Even Matt MaGuire, at 28, has gotten back to playing some really good footy after his horrific leg break and he did his a fair bit older than Jake, so I would be fairly confident that Jake could get back to at least 85-90% of his capabilities pretty soon.

Would you rather have a fully fit Caddy on your team, down the track, or a 90% Stringer? For one, Caddy can also go forward and play from FF, I hear, but I haven't heard of him kicking 10 goals 6 (or whatever it was) in an U18's game (although I think he kicked a 7), like Stringer did in his very first game back from his broken leg. If Stringer can do that when he is at 60-70% fit, or whatever he was, I'd love to see what he would do at even 90%, in a couple of years!

I guess that could be the thing that clubs look at when deciding whether to take Stringer. When does he, at 90% or so, become the better option than someone else at 100% fitness and mobility?

 

[U Little Beauty]

great work on your mock draft and rankings so far knightmare.

what are your thoughts on Tyler Blake (North Ballarat), Michael Barnes (Sandringham Dragons), Will Hams and Shannen Lange (Gippsland Power)?

 

[saintsrfreak]

Oh no Knightmare, you aren't stealing Stringer from us

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Oh no Knightmare, you aren't stealing Stringer from us

Don't worry we'll get him with pick 13 before the Filth lay their dirty hands on him

 

[Knightmare]

Would you rather have a fully fit Caddy on your team, down the track, or a 90% Stringer? For one, Caddy can also go forward and play from FF, I hear, but I haven't heard of him kicking 10 goals 6 (or whatever it was) in an U18's game (although I think he kicked a 7), like Stringer did in his very first game back from his broken leg. If Stringer can do that when he is at 60-70% fit, or whatever he was, I'd love to see what he would do at even 90%, in a couple of years!

I guess that could be the thing that clubs look at when deciding whether to take Stringer. When does he, at 90% or so, become the better option than someone else at 100% fitness and mobility?

Caddy at this stage. The more proven of the two and hard not to back him in.

Stringer to be honest I just don't know what to make of this year. At his best he was as good as any but I'm starting to question his position at the next level. If things work out he could be the best in the draft or close to but it could just as easily go the other way with some questions coming up this season as to what he is at the next level.

great work on your mock draft and rankings so far knightmare.

what are your thoughts on Tyler Blake (North Ballarat), Michael Barnes (Sandringham Dragons), Will Hams and Shannen Lange (Gippsland Power)?

Nice list. Really solid group and all probably players who should get discussed more from the TAC.

Blake is a more of an offensive running, skillful type defender.

Barnes I don't mind. Takes those running bounces and reads it well in the back half. For a small an above average mark.

Will Hams had a ripper TAC Cup grand final and also has some real substance to his game. Real clearance player and stoppage specialist. Reads it well in the air and for a small is a strong mark. Real high work rate guy.

Lange is more your goalkicking midfielder and has also had a strong season.

If they are in the draft mix then more likely as late/rookies but all can play and as mentioned before all should be talked about more.

Oh no Knightmare, you aren't stealing Stringer from us

For St Kilda's situation I feel Jaksch as a KPP might be a better fit. Can play key forward or key defence and that is probably more of a need than Stringer I would have thought.

Stringer could land genuinely anywhere and there will be a variety of views on his game from various scouts.

 

[hayes]

For St Kilda's situation I feel Jaksch as a KPP might be a better fit. Can play key forward or key defence and that is probably more of a need than Stringer I would have thought.

Talent over need every day of the week my friend.

 

[Knightmare]

Talent over need every day of the week my friend.

I wouldn't be so sure about the talent either. Talent this year has suggested Jaksch is the better player with Stringer more the player with reputation who probably hasn't produced.

Stringer has mostly been winning his matchups with his size + strength advantage this year (won't be enough of an edge at the next level) and without that same explosiveness he doesn't look the same talent either looking more like a poor mans Tim Membrey as that shorter key forward. Jaksch has shown that he can do more things and to a higher level and probably has gone past Stringer on most draft boards.

My high rating of Stringer in my power rankings is more to do with reputation and the expectation that he will return to something closer to who he was but his upside could be quite a bit less than assumed being that relatively early bloomer who was so good, so early with an already very developed body. And for this reason many of the media experts who have put together a 1st round phantom draft have left Stringer out.

 

[Chris25]

Stringer has mostly been winning his matchups with his size + strength advantage this year (won't be enough of an edge at the next level) and without that same explosiveness he doesn't look the same talent either looking more like a poor mans Tim Membrey as that shorter key forward. Jaksch has shown that he can do more things and to a higher level and probably has gone past Stringer on most draft boards.

Three VFL games with an average of 20 disposals and 8 tackles would suggest he isn't only performing well because he is bigger and stronger than his opponents. He did not look out of place at all against the mature bodies in the VFL from what I saw, and looked to have his initial burst back. And more importantly, he proved that he is a midfielder first and foremost. So personally, I would hope Jaksch had shown more as a tall forward - considering he actually is one.

While Membrey wouldn't even hold a candle to Stringer in my opinion. Stringer is taller, stronger, a better mark and a better tackler. And while he might not be at 100% yet, Stringer still has better acceleration and more explosiveness than Membrey.

 

[hayes]

I wouldn't be so sure about the talent either. Talent this year has suggested Jaksch is the better player with Stringer more the player with reputation who probably hasn't produced.

Stringer has mostly been winning his matchups with his size + strength advantage this year (won't be enough of an edge at the next level) and without that same explosiveness he doesn't look the same talent either looking more like a poor mans Tim Membrey as that shorter key forward. Jaksch has shown that he can do more things and to a higher level and probably has gone past Stringer on most draft boards.

My high rating of Stringer in my power rankings is more to do with reputation and the expectation that he will return to something closer to who he was but his upside could be quite a bit less than assumed being that relatively early bloomer who was so good, so early with an already very developed body. And for this reason many of the media experts who have put together a 1st round phantom draft have left Stringer out.

Not going to get any arguements from me, if that's what you think I'll take your word for it.

So with it looking extremely likely Goddard's going who would you have us taking if the compensation pick is right after our first rounder? As I've said to you before we could really use an outside mid going forward so Garlett would be perfect, but obviously you've got him going before our pick. I see you've got Kennedy going after us so that would be ideal.

 

[foj1]

GRear work though Ahmed and Adam saad not related.

 

[Knightmare]

Three VFL games with an average of 20 disposals and 8 tackles would suggest he isn't only performing well because he is bigger and stronger than his opponents. He did not look out of place at all against the mature bodies in the VFL from what I saw, and looked to have his initial burst back. And more importantly, he proved that he is a midfielder first and foremost. So personally, I would hope Jaksch had shown more as a tall forward - considering he actually is one.

While Membrey wouldn't even hold a candle to Stringer in my opinion. Stringer is taller, stronger, a better mark and a better tackler. And while he might not be at 100% yet, Stringer still has better acceleration and more explosiveness than Membrey.

It's an interesting call. Stringer was very good through the midfield at VFL level and that does save him in my ratings some and that's also where I hope he develops at AFL level - to hopefully develop into that strong bodied midfielder and I have much the same vision with Membrey also with those strong bodied mids to be the new drafting craze.

Membrey is much better than you give him credit for. Not only a powerful beast but for someone so strong he is very explosive and I'd probably be giving him the points in that department on this season - unlike Stringer this year, Membrey has really been able to create that seperation on the lead which I just haven't seen enough of from Stringer.

Also overhead marking while I'm not disagreeing that Stringer is a strong overhead mark I'd also be giving Membrey the clear edge in this area too. Not only the stronger mark of the pair but I'd go as far as to say clearly the strongest mark in this draft - unless you count Daniher with that added height. Overhead with Membrey if he so much as gets a hand to it, it's a mark. You just can't spoil him overhead and whether it be a pack mark or on the lead there is no one stronger in this area of the game.

I also rate Stringer slightly ahead of Membrey - more because he is the more proven through the midfield of the two (where I see both playing more at the next level) but the difference is minimal and of the two Membrey is the better as a forward.

 

[hayes]

Three VFL games with an average of 20 disposals and 8 tackles would suggest he isn't only performing well because he is bigger and stronger than his opponents. He did not look out of place at all against the mature bodies in the VFL from what I saw, and looked to have his initial burst back. And more importantly, he proved that he is a midfielder first and foremost. So personally, I would hope Jaksch had shown more as a tall forward - considering he actually is one.

While Membrey wouldn't even hold a candle to Stringer in my opinion. Stringer is taller, stronger, a better mark and a better tackler. And while he might not be at 100% yet, Stringer still has better acceleration and more explosiveness than Membrey.

If he looks to be getting his explosiveness back then I'd probably put him at #1 on my wish list. Hopefully it scares off other teams and he slips.

 

[Knightmare]

So with it looking extremely likely Goddard's going who would you have us taking if the compensation pick is right after our first rounder? As I've said to you before we could really use an outside mid going forward so Garlett would be perfect, but obviously you've got him going before our pick. I see you've got Kennedy going after us so that would be ideal.

If two selections I'd possibly go for the key position combo of Jaksch and Clurey.

With Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Fisher all 30 I'd say it's time to load up on the quality talls early draft and take them while you have the opportunity with those early selections to add quality replacements.

It would be a pretty terrible situation being left with R.Stanley, Wilkes and Simpkin as the only possible KPPs on the list. Those long term stocks really need to be added to in a hurry. Regardless of midfield and other needs.

GRear work though Ahmed and Adam saad not related.

Noted. Will fix up on next update.

 

[saintsrfreak]

Could you see Stringer becoming a Josh P Kennedy type of midfielder?

 

[MR]

Hey KM, you've probably answered this a thousand times but where would you rank Martin in this years draft?

 

[TheLastEmperor]

If two selections I'd possibly go for the key position combo of Jaksch and Clurey.

With Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Fisher all 30 I'd say it's time to load up on the quality talls early draft and take them while you have the opportunity with those early selections to add quality replacements.

It would be a pretty terrible situation being left with R.Stanley, Wilkes and Simpkin as the only possible KPPs on the list. Those long term stocks really need to be added to in a hurry. Regardless of midfield and other needs.

I see where you are coming from however the old argument, list needs verse best available comes up. I would feel more confident in going with list needs with only one selection, however not the two top 20 picks.

In your opinion is there more value in going after best available midfielder at selection 12 then using selection 13 on Jaksch, Shaw or Clurey and then picking up a Tanner Smith, Tom Lee or Tim O'Brien with selection two?

It's also worth considering that we will likely lose Goddard as well as Jamie Cripps, that's two outside midfield utilities however we may pick up a Tom Hickey type with the Cripps pick or our second rounder.

What I'm getting at is looking at something along these lines:

Pick 12 - Wines / Vlastuin / Stringer
Pick 13 - Jaksch / Clurey / Shaw
Pick 34 - Lee / O'Brien / Smith
Pick 38 - Tom Hickey *

* Pick via WC for Cripps and forwarded onto GC for Hickey

This way we use pick 12 for best player available, pick 13 and 34 for best KPP's available and 38 for a project ruckman. Do you see that as sound list management and recruitment and something that we may do?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Stringer to be honest I just don't know what to make of this year. At his best he was as good as any but I'm starting to question his position at the next level. If things work out he could be the best in the draft or close to but it could just as easily go the other way with some questions coming up this season as to what he is at the next level.

Aren't those the same sort of questions that saw Adam Goodes slip all the way down to the 40's, with some clubs passing on him up to 5 times, despite his immense potential? I don't reckon I've been as keen for us to pick anyone up (as I have been for us to get Stringer) as I was for us to select Goodes in 1997, after seeing him dominate the U18's GF live, before the St Kilda v Adelaide GF. I reckon I would have happily taken him if I had a top 5 pick that year (unless I knew that everyone else was going to pass on him and could have gotten him more cheaply by simply waiting), but luckily we picked Ben Walton instead!

As far as comparing Stringer's form this year to the likes of Membrey and Jaksch, surely the fact Stringer is no-where near fully fit has to be taken into account? I mean I've heard that he has done brilliantly to just be playing again this year, so surely his form has to be largely ignored? He is probably only going at 70-80% fitness/capacity, compared to their's being closer to 100%.

Has anyone ever come back from a badly broken leg and done well the following season? I know hardly anyone comes back from a knee reco and does as well the following season and I reckon if Stringer's form has been anywhere near as good as others, he is likely to be a better long term option than them, as long as his leg has properly healed.

Even if he doesn't get all his burst speed back, he is a similar height to the likes of Brendon Goddard, Jobe Watson and Josh Kennedy and they are not what I would call quick, so he could always play the sort of roles they do, couldn't he?