Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[TerryWallet]

KM,

Caddy may(?) be worth more than pick 12 but:

Pick 11 Carlton may not have room for him after getting Cloke.
Pick 10 Essendon (Daniher)
Pick 9 Richmond are really selective recruiters and look like already securing Chaplin and Knights. So may want to keep their Pick 9.
Pick 8 Brisbane are not a Vic club.
Pick 7 Port are not a Vic club.


Pick 12 could be their best option for Caddy.

 

[Knightmare]

KM,

Caddy may(?) be worth more than pick 12 but:

Pick 11 Carlton may not have room for him after getting Cloke.
Pick 10 Essendon (Daniher)
Pick 9 Richmond are really selective recruiters and look like already securing Chaplin and Knights. So may want to keep their Pick 9.
Pick 8 Brisbane are not a Vic club.
Pick 7 Port are not a Vic club.


Pick 12 could be their best option for Caddy.

No reason the Western Bulldogs don't offer up pick 6 for Caddy if they can add Gold Coast's 2nd round selection in return. The dogs also want Josh Toy so it's entirely possible that they get the young pair while still holding onto pick 5.

Still some compensation selections remaining.

Maybe a club can offer Gold Coast an established key defender.

Always options a plenty. Gold Coast will do fine.

 

[TerryWallet]

Haha yep there are dozens of scenarios out there...

...but damnit, mine is the best...

...ok

 

[hayes]

Would a team really offer a top 10 pick in this draft for when they could just pick a midfielder that should be just as good if not better than Caddy? Or do you think Caddy will be better than these guys?

 

[Knightmare]

Would a team really offer a top 10 pick in this draft for when they could just pick a midfielder that should be just as good if not better than Caddy? Or do you think Caddy will be better than these guys?

With draft picks it can go either way.

Caddy is a reasonably proven quantity and while it's early he looks to be worth where he was selected.

Top 10 I'd do for Caddy.

I'd take Daniher/Whitfield/Macrae/Grundy/Viney/Toumpas before Caddy but after that I'd back Caddy in over the rest if it was me picking at this stage. That said Caddy could easily go on and have a better career than 2 of these but then have others pass him by.

 

[UpTheGuts]

Forgive me of I've missed the same question.

Thoughts on Plowman having midfield capacity? He seems to have poise and confidence required and while he's been played in defence I'm not sure he is just a KPD or even third back.

Ok he is 191 but that's very close to pendlebury size

 

[Knightmare]

Forgive me of I've missed the same question.

Thoughts on Plowman having midfield capacity? He seems to have poise and confidence required and while he's been played in defence I'm not sure he is just a KPD or even third back.

Ok he is 191 but that's very close to pendlebury size

I have nothing against tall midfielders and I wouldn't be surprised to see the day we have 195cm mids running around.

Plowman as a midfielder is an interesting idea. Can't say it's something I've seen - having only seen him play key defence. Haven't noticed him play through the midfield at any stage.
I'd really want to see how he goes in close first.

Certainly a natural key defender but until I really see a sign indicating he can go through the midfield I'd say key defence for now until he demonstrates otherwise.

 

[fronkalicious]

No reason the Western Bulldogs don't offer up pick 6 for Caddy if they can add Gold Coast's 2nd round selection in return. The dogs also want Josh Toy so it's entirely possible that they get the young pair while still holding onto pick 5.

Still some compensation selections remaining.

Maybe a club can offer Gold Coast an established key defender.

Always options a plenty. Gold Coast will do fine.

What about the dogs and Gold Coast ramp it up a bit knightmare?

Gold Coast want an established key defender that's not too old. We have one (Williams) that also happens to be from qld.

Gold Coast get - Williams, pick 6.
Dogs get - caddy, toy, gc 2nd rounder, gc 3rd rounder.

 

[Snake Charmer]

Hey Knight..
What about Sam Lloyd. plays for mt eliza and a few games for the Bendigo Gold. Everyones saying he in nearly 100% to go in the rookie draft. have you seen any of him?????

 

[Knightmare]

What about the dogs and Gold Coast ramp it up a bit knightmare?

Gold Coast want an established key defender that's not too old. We have one (Williams) that also happens to be from qld.

Gold Coast get - Williams, pick 6.
Dogs get - caddy, toy, gc 2nd rounder, gc 3rd rounder.

This is probably around about what Gold Coast will be looking at though I'd probably leave Williams out of the deal and forget that 2nd + 3rd round selection and maybe this is a deal with a straight Caddy + Toy for Pick 6 deal.

I'd be a little surprised if Gold Coast looked into Williams all that seriously. A guy turning 27 while from QLD might be nice to have on the list, but he won't be around for their next premiership and with the slow list build they are going through I don't see him as a target.

Hey Knight..
What about Sam Lloyd. plays for mt eliza and a few games for the Bendigo Gold. Everyones saying he in nearly 100% to go in the rookie draft. have you seen any of him?????

Yoda would be the one to ask about any of the Bendigo VFL boys.

Don't know enough about Lloyd and haven't seen him play to be able to say yes or no.

 

[THE_GUN]

What do you think of this scenario?

Melbourne swap #4 to GWS for Jesse Hogan (with the understanding GWS don't bid on Viney)

Josh Caddy to Saints or NM (#12 or #14). just for interest sake, lets say Saints #12.

Gold Coast swap #2 and #12 to GWS for #4 and Jack Martin.

GWS use #1 and #2 on Whitfield and Grundy (who i think Sheedy and SOS would love to build a team around with Cameron and Patton. I really think Grundy and Whitfield would be their clear preferences in this draft )

Melbourne end up with #3, Hogan, #13 and Viney.

GC end up with #4, Martin while losing Caddy and #2.

GWS end up with #1, #2, and #12 (effectively gain #2 and #12 for their mini draftees)

StKilda end up with Caddy for #12




Everyone happy...........??

Except the AFL --------- DRAFT TAMPERING

 

[jacob fairlow]

patrick wilson, 39 disposal from half back in sturts second semi final on the weekend in under 18's? does this improve his chances?

 

[superman_kon]

myles bolger has been invited to the combine. Still think he wont make the ND? I can see him as a late/rookie selection easily

 

[Knightmare]

patrick wilson, 39 disposal from half back in sturts second semi final on the weekend in under 18's? does this improve his chances?

Certainly does.

And being a late season birthday makes him a very intriguing option in a hurry.

Out of interest were you at the game? Would love a review of how he went or some more details from those who were there.

myles bolger has been invited to the combine. Still think he wont make the ND? I can see him as a late/rookie selection easily

With limited ruck options it doesn't surprise that Bolger received another invite this year. Has only from my records played the six games this year so I'm not sure what has changed and why clubs would invest now when they passed last year.

Can never count out a player from being a rookie chance when they have been thereabouts but I would be pretty surprised to see him go national draft.

 

[jacob fairlow]

Hey Knight, yes i was at the game, but i am a close friend of his so my opinion may be bias, although he was clearly BOG, 39 disposals 19 more than any of his team mates, and roughly 17 more than any Norwood Player, 25 kicks 22 e 3 ie 14 handballs 11e 3 ie 3 tackles and 86.4% seems to be a very good day. After the game, i was talking with him and someone mentioned to him that people thought he was playing in the midfield, "this is my bias opinion" he must be a hard worker, if people think he is playing as a midfielder cause he said to myself, he was half back the whole day.

im interested in wether his is likely to be taken in the national draft or more rookie? Because of his birth date and because he has played a lot of "school football" will this affect where he goes or even if he gets picked up?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knight, yes i was at the game, but i am a close friend of his so my opinion may be bias, although he was clearly BOG, 39 disposals 19 more than any of his team mates, and roughly 17 more than any Norwood Player, 25 kicks 22 e 3 ie 14 handballs 11e 3 ie 3 tackles and 86.4% seems to be a very good day. After the game, i was talking with him and someone mentioned to him that people thought he was playing in the midfield, "this is my bias opinion" he must be a hard worker, if people think he is playing as a midfielder cause he said to myself, he was half back the whole day.

im interested in wether his is likely to be taken in the national draft or more rookie? Because of his birth date and because he has played a lot of "school football" will this affect where he goes or even if he gets picked up?

I think he is well in the mix and if he tests + interviews well I suggests he gets drafted. The numbers are very encouraging and do that in the finals and that's how you get noticed and I suggest Wilson's stocks with that kind of performance have improved somewhat.

Wilson is interesting because he is a relative unknown having not represented SA at state level as far as I know but from the bits I've seen I think he can really surprise people this draft and possibly go as high as early 2nd round if things go right. The school footy bit isn't entirely bad. Sean Rusling some time ago is one example who came from a similar situation who like Wilson was hidden away there and went 2nd round so more often than not if a guy can play someone notices and word gets out. The only query in this regard is because he hasn't played against the others on the national stage from this draft it makes it more difficult to evaluate his talent relative to others in this draft.

I like to take the late birthday into consideration - knowing the success of a number of other late birthdays in the past but it's more something you might look at if you rate talents pretty evenly as a tie-breaker to decide who to take rather than something that can drastically shift a player up the rankings.


What I take out of these comments and this is only my interpretation of what you say is that he probably from the backline ran hard forward of centre to provide a target probably in linkup chains and with his high level running game probably presents as an option more than most and with that and the confidence of team mates (which is understandable with his efficient ball use) he probably gets used more often than not when he gets open.

 

[UNC23]

I think he is well in the mix and if he tests + interviews well I suggests he gets drafted. The numbers are very encouraging and do that in the finals and that's how you get noticed and I suggest Wilson's stocks with that kind of performance have improved somewhat.

Wilson is interesting because he is a relative unknown having not represented SA at state level as far as I know but from the bits I've seen I think he can really surprise people this draft and possibly go as high as early 2nd round if things go right. The school footy bit isn't entirely bad. Sean Rusling some time ago is one example who came from a similar situation who like Wilson was hidden away there and went 2nd round so more often than not if a guy can play someone notices and word gets out. The only query in this regard is because he hasn't played against the others on the national stage from this draft it makes it more difficult to evaluate his talent relative to others in this draft.

I like to take the late birthday into consideration - knowing the success of a number of other late birthdays in the past but it's more something you might look at if you rate talents pretty evenly as a tie-breaker to decide who to take rather than something that can drastically shift a player up the rankings.


What I take out of these comments and this is only my interpretation of what you say is that he probably from the backline ran hard forward of centre to provide a target probably in linkup chains and with his high level running game probably presents as an option more than most and with that and the confidence of team mates (which is understandable with his efficient ball use) he probably gets used more often than not when he gets open.

Good attacking player, gets a lot of the ball, good kick, good size, got shown up the week before playing on a marking forward. The knock on him is can he defend and his speed! Will get drafted though in my opinion.

 

[jacob fairlow]

was he shown up the week before against woodville west torrens?

 

[Chris25]

I'd take Wilson as a rookie. Not sure I'd go in the National Draft.

I've always had a soft spot for Sturt, so I've seen a bit of them this year. And they actually have a really good U18s team - Dwayne Wilson, Patrick Wilson, Jarrad Leinert, Brad Hartman, Josh Archer and Jake Atkinson just to name a few. So it's been good viewing this year.

There are parts of Patrick Wilson's game which you can't fault - size and skill being the main two. But I'd have question marks over his position at AFL. So far, he has played pretty much all season across half back. Almost solely as the loose man it seems, which leads to a very uncontested game. If I were a head recruiter, I'd be wondering if he had shown enough defensively to play that half back in the AFL. I'd also be wondering if he had the speed that was required to be a rebounding player, or a wingman even. Also, if his contested game (ball winning and marking) was at the level necessary. Either way, I think he'd be a few years off of AFL - which is where the rookie list would come into play.

Like I've said before, I quite like his game and what he brings to the table. But I'd be a little surprised to see him go early.

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

Knightmare, it's a bit of a left field question, but somewhat relevant to this thread.

How many of the kids in the 2012 draft would you take ahead of Sharrod Wellingham (24, turns 25 in 2013)?

Thanks.

 

[UNC23]

was he shown up the week before against woodville west torrens?

Yes thats right, played on a lead up forward and struggled, mainly in the first half, was ok in the second half. Plays loose a lot so can get into bad habits when he has to defend. Dont get me wrong I like him as a player and good luck to him, just telling you what I think his deficiencies are.

 

[Knightmare]

I'd take Wilson as a rookie. Not sure I'd go in the National Draft.

Not a bad call. I still have him mid draft but I want to see how he tests first before I really settle on his placing in this draft.

Knightmare, it's a bit of a left field question, but somewhat relevant to this thread.

How many of the kids in the 2012 draft would you take ahead of Sharrod Wellingham (24, turns 25 in 2013)?

Thanks.

Probably around 20 at this stage I'd take before Wellingham.

 

[MR]

Hey KM, earlier in the year you had Vlastuin going at 2. You have him dropped due to an alleged poor championships. Nick was named in the bests in every game for VM other than the first and was even playing through an injury. I have watched him very closely this year and I believe you heavily underestimate him. He will go anywhere from 5-15. He's a ready made footballer that can be stuck on a back flank or straight in the midfield and immediately make a difference to your team. He has excellent skills and decision making and whilst I agree with you where he is not as athletically gifted as others, he more than makes up with it for his endurance, work rate and courage.

What is your reasoning on Vlastuin's drop from 2-17.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, earlier in the year you had Vlastuin going at 2. You have him dropped due to an alleged poor championships. Nick was named in the bests in every game for VM other than the first and was even playing through an injury. I have watched him very closely this year and I believe you heavily underestimate him. He will go anywhere from 5-15. He's a ready made footballer that can be stuck on a back flank or straight in the midfield and immediately make a difference to your team. He has excellent skills and decision making and whilst I agree with you where he is not as athletically gifted as others, he more than makes up with it for his endurance, work rate and courage.

What is your reasoning on Vlastuin's drop from 2-17.

Fair comment.

I have always had that whole range pretty open and I still to some extent consider those players in that range to all have a similar level of playing ability.

I also had Stringer at pick two at one stage early on before others have had better seasons and now he might not even go 1st round so things can change pretty quickly, particularly when the top end is as even as it is this year.

I actually agree with your analysis of his game and I also rate him a clear top 15 player this year as my power rankings show. But I'm not so sure he is a top 15 lock on draft day. The likely top 20 group this year are all very well performed, but also very even and clubs tend to favour those more speedy ones which could see Vlastuin slide further than his performances suggest.

One thing I will say on Vlastuin. I expect him to interview very well so while I have him going more 15-20 on draft day, top 10 is still entirely possible and he probably deserves to go closer to pick 10. Whether it happens is the unknown.

 

[THE_GUN]

Sounds like this year there isnt a huge gap between picks 10-30 and we could see alot of suprises coming up around the pick 30 area !!