Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Knightmare]

Some word Hawthorn might look at Garlett. But he is sliding fast and with clubs increasingly looking at high character guys who knows what happens. Only about 3-4 clubs consider him at all so certainly won't go where his talent suggests. That much is obvious.

 

[LemmingMaster]

KM, I notice that you've changed your mock again.

It seems that you change your mock based on the latests rumours of where clubs will select players. It would be good to see your mock based on where you rate certain players. Could be something to consider for next year.

 

[aussierulesrules]

That's what his "power rankings" are for.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

The buldogs have Cordy, Jordon Roughhead and Minson.

The have plenty of needs but a ruck isnt one.

I would expect them to concentrate on Mid's (outside more than inside - they have Libber and Wallis) and one KPF (Don't really have one) and one KPD (Lake replacement).

Isnt roughead playing KPD lately? and is Cordy going to develop into that ruck???

 

[halfback dasher]

Some word Hawthorn might look at Garlett. But he is sliding fast and with clubs increasingly looking at high character guys who knows what happens. Only about 3-4 clubs consider him at all so certainly won't go where his talent suggests. That much is obvious.

Recon its Saints or Hawks KM .....

 

[Knightmare]

KM, I notice that you've changed your mock again.

It seems that you change your mock based on the latests rumours of where clubs will select players. It would be good to see your mock based on where you rate certain players. Could be something to consider for next year.

That's where my power rankings comes in. Essentially this is where I would select these if I was picking and that's how I seperate where I rate players relative to where I see them going on draft day so that way people get a bit of both.

One thing I did last year for GWS was make my own selections based on their selections. I'm happy to do similar post draft and take requests and go against the selectors for a particular club and state who I would have picked at each point with particular players being available - keeping in mind who I think will be available at particular points. So an example of this could be Dayle Garlett I'm expecting him to slide down the draft and if I had a selection in the late 30s then I'd be tempted to make sure I get him whereas say drafting for Collingwood I'd pass on him at 18,19,20.

Or predraft alternatively I'm happy to say who I will pick and not just who I expect to go where.

 

[Knightmare]

Recon its Saints or Hawks KM .....

Late rumours coming through that St Kilda will pass which could mean opportunity for Hawthorn if willing to take the risk. Though no confirmation Hawthorn take him either and suggestions more that he might be looked at. Perhaps the Saints look at Garlett again in the 40s but who knows.

Garlett's draft position very up in the air and could go late 1st, could go undrafted. He's the real unknown going into tomorrow as Manson was last year, though in a different way with personality questions with his party boy lifestyle if you like as opposed to questions about whether he will fit into the culture and be able to make that transition which was more the questions surrounding Manson last year.

 

[doggies ftw]

Hope we manage to somehow steal Garlett at 51 if all this talk is true! I'd back us in to turn him around but even if we didn't only wasted 51 anyway (I'd take him at 22 but I doubt Macca would want him at all )

Really disappointed we can't get one of O'Rourke/Toumpas anymore (if the rumors are true anyway) but would still be absolutely rapt if we managed something like Macrae + Wines/Stringer + Garner/O'Brien + Garlett, that would be amazing, obviously not counting on it though

Knightmare I want us to take the best available big FF from the state leagues at 51/85, just someone who could come in and provide a target while taking the pressure off Jones/Cordy + hopefully O'Brien. Any idea on who this could be?

 

[Knightmare]

Hope we manage to somehow steal Garlett at 51 if all this talk is true! I'd back us in to turn him around but even if we didn't only wasted 51 anyway (I'd take him at 22 but I doubt Macca would want him at all )

Really disappointed we can't get one of O'Rourke/Toumpas anymore (if the rumors are true anyway) but would still be absolutely rapt if we managed something like Macrae + Wines/Stringer + Garner/O'Brien + Garlett, that would be amazing, obviously not counting on it though

Knightmare I want us to take the best available big FF from the state leagues at 51/85, just someone who could come in and provide a target while taking the pressure off Jones/Cordy + hopefully O'Brien. Any idea on who this could be?

I'd do Garlett at 51 also. Just too talented to pass up. I'd say the same thing for the teams selecting in the 30s+40s also though.

Toumpas an outside chance with Wines still a chance at 4 but it's gone from highly likely to an almost consensus pick with the vast majority expecting Toumpas at 4 now. O'Rourke at 2 is a done deal from all reports these past two days. Many are thinking Macrae and Stringer at 5+6 so we'll see whether that happens. Menzel still a chance for one of those picks and Wines you can never count out. Really an embarrassment of quality choices there to look at.

The potential value selections to look our at 21 for the WBD now are Hrovat/Garner/Membrey with Wright to be there and be another strong option. Kennedy could be there but expect Collingwood take him at 18. WBD want to go tall but I'd be looking to capitalise on whichever quality mids are there despite need and just look at best key forward later.

Expect WBD to look at Spencer White at 50. Has been the most strongly linked to that selection and could go around that range. Big upside and a heck of an option there. Mature key forward options not great but Justin Hardy is the best of those available with Clouston another who could very well be looked at as another immediate key forward and has his fans.

 

[doggies ftw]

I'd do Garlett at 51 also. Just too talented to pass up. I'd say the same thing for the teams selecting in the 30s+40s also though.

Toumpas an outside chance with Wines still a chance at 4 but it's gone from highly likely to an almost consensus pick with the vast majority expecting Toumpas at 4 now. O'Rourke at 2 is a done deal from all reports these past two days. Many are thinking Macrae and Stringer at 5+6 so we'll see whether that happens. Menzel still a chance for one of those picks and Wines you can never count out. Really an embarrassment of quality choices there to look at.

The potential value selections to look our at 21 for the WBD now are Hrovat/Garner/Membrey with Wright to be there and be another strong option. Kennedy could be there but expect Collingwood take him at 18. WBD want to go tall but I'd be looking to capitalise on whichever quality mids are there despite need and just look at best key forward later.

Expect WBD to look at Spencer White at 50. Has been the most strongly linked to that selection and could go around that range. Big upside and a heck of an option there. Mature key forward options not great but Justin Hardy is the best of those available with Clouston another who could very well be looked at as another immediate key forward and has his fans.

Toumpas is my biggest want, just fits our needs so perfectly but I guess he won't get past Melbourne (I still doubt he gets past GWS to be honest)


Yeah I agree on 21, I suspect we want an O'Brien/Clurey/Shaw type but if someone like Kennedy/Garner/Simpson is there I can't see us passing on them, and that would be great.

Spencer White would be perfect at 50, but I thought that he would go a lot earlier, lately people have him in the 30s and even 20s. If he is there at 50 we should definitely pick him up. I think I could live with Macrae/Stringer/Garner/Hunter/White

 

[Megaman123]

AFL website has a revised draft order up, and now have Grundy sliding to the Cats at 16. He is so highy rated, is the plausible? The cats have McIntosh, Simpson, Vardy and West already, Vardy could bery easily end up at CHF the next year or two, would you take him considering all this?

 

[Banana Boots]

Mayes and Membrey, don't get my hopes up Knightmare

 

[aussierulesrules]

No-one wants Grundy!

 

[Tazwegian]

No-one wants Grundy!

I do Is he a douche or something? How is he slipping so much according to these insiders?

 

[juzzo]

I do Is he a douche or something? How is he slipping so much according to these insiders?

I've heard some say that. Others have said he's very intelligent and his school results were pretty good. One does not preclude the other I suppose.

 

[Knightmare]

Toumpas is my biggest want, just fits our needs so perfectly but I guess he won't get past Melbourne (I still doubt he gets past GWS to be honest)


Yeah I agree on 21, I suspect we want an O'Brien/Clurey/Shaw type but if someone like Kennedy/Garner/Simpson is there I can't see us passing on them, and that would be great.

Spencer White would be perfect at 50, but I thought that he would go a lot earlier, lately people have him in the 30s and even 20s. If he is there at 50 we should definitely pick him up. I think I could live with Macrae/Stringer/Garner/Hunter/White

Toumpas still can slide past 4, to pick 5, but expect Melbourne go with him over Wines being that better fit for that group.

White is mostly considered a mid draft option. May be there, may not but the chance could well be there and if it is it could be a real chance to capitalise as Collingwood did last year with Paine who some had going 1st round and if looking ok.

AFL website has a revised draft order up, and now have Grundy sliding to the Cats at 16. He is so highy rated, is the plausible? The cats have McIntosh, Simpson, Vardy and West already, Vardy could bery easily end up at CHF the next year or two, would you take him considering all this?

It's looking possible and increasingly likely. The situation is all the clubs in that top half of the draft want midfielders and knowing the success clubs have had in the rookie draft with ruckmen over the years and with the new ruck rules making the quantity of ruckmen less important it seems clubs are really lowing their views on how highly ruckmen are now traded and more of this could be seen in the future with new avenues to draft bigs coming through such as the new International - with those big Americans clubs might also be seeing opportunities there.

Another thing worth knowing with Grundy is that he didn't interview great. Not so much in the way you'd think, but during the interview process he was from reports really questioning clubs hard about how they would go about developing him and was really testing them and with some clubs questioning them in interview whether they are well credentialed enough to develop him into the dominant ruckman he aspires to become which seems to have really scared off the bottom dwellers, GWS in particular which is why the talk of North Melbourne and Geelong with room for another young ruckman might be in the mix with Collingwood also mentioned as a potential destination - though I'm not buying him getting past Geelong who will as always go best available.

He might be a Cat. Watch for it. More likely than his talent suggests it should be and is a clear top 5 talent in this draft so if it works out this way - which I'm also leaning towards myself Geelong will be one of the big draft winners.

Adding Grundy would mean Trent West can be traded next trade period which could in itself get an ok return. Grundy would likely compete for that no.2 ruck spot next year with McIntosh that clear no.1 but in the scenario it happens if McIntosh gets injured again I'd be playing Grundy as that no.1 ruckman. He could be that no.1 ruckman in round 1 if you wanted him to be but during the year serving time in the VFL won't do him any harm either and I think being in Geelong's strong program he'd be pretty accepting of the circumstance with the now once again strong ruck depth. From my experiences with these young ruckman as ready to play as they can it's always better to play them first up in the VFL before introducing them as regulars.

And yes I would absolutely take Grundy in Geelong's situation! No player who could be available at that selection would provide more value and with the way I see the Geelong ruck situation Vardy and West are more no.2 ruckmen. McIntosh is nearly 30 and with Simpson an unknown, Grundy would be that long term no.1 ruckman which from 16 when you can say that with confidence is not a bad get from an 18 year old!

 

[Knightmare]

Mayes and Membrey, don't get my hopes up Knightmare

Next update you'll have Wines with WBD potentially passing. In a team where Wines can get the midfield minutes he could well be the rising star for next year and that higher production immediate inside midfielder so that's one to look out for.

After that though there might be some surprises for a couple of other team with the major early changes early being Jaksch to 9 which might make change the dynamic some with Menzel sliding to 11, Vlastuin to 15 and Grundy to 16.

Some other minor tweaks but these are the bigger name, curious changes which will be different to most of the rest of the drafts.

 

[Tazwegian]

I've heard some say that. Others have said he's very intelligent and his school results were pretty good. One does not preclude the other I suppose.

Definitely not. Fritz Zwicky springs to mind.

 

[Tazwegian]

this could be seen in the future with new avenues to draft bigs coming through such as the new International - with those big Americans clubs might also be seeing opportunities there.

Passing up Grundy to take Eric Wallace Good luck with that, whichever club is foolish enough.

 

[MightySaints]

Surely Garlett won't be passed up by every club and land in the second round ? The kid oozes talent! Sure, the issues come with it but look at Jack Darling and his 'issues'.
I know as a Saints fan I'm furious we didn't take JD, especially with our key forwards ageing and none coming through which showed as much promise as him.

 

[Knightmare]

Passing up Grundy to take Eric Wallace Good luck with that, whichever club is foolish enough.

Someone likely takes Wallace this year but I think with this being the start of the American recruiting more will be intrigued by the prospect of the move in future years and some taller, even more athletic prospects should come available. It's a very small part of it, but I can see it coming into the consideration when clubs think about looking at ruckmen from here on.

Surely Garlett won't be passed up by every club and land in the second round ? The kid oozes talent! Sure, the issues come with it but look at Jack Darling and his 'issues'.
I know as a Saints fan I'm furious we didn't take JD, especially with our key forwards ageing and none coming through which showed as much promise as him.

Garlett could go 2nd round or not at all. Different situation to Darling and Darling off the field wasn't nearly the same issue with smaller personality questions which is probably the kind way to put it. Clubs are outright saying no with 15 clubs believed to have completely put a line through his name with the other three clubs (unknown) to perhaps consider him.

You are right about Garlett's talent. Top 5 quality talent, but his issues, for completely different reasons could move him out of the draft completely as happened with Manson last year.

Darling might just be one of those selections all us hobby recruiters on bigfooty got right with the clubs getting it wrong. I wonder whether Garlett has it in him to do the same? Time will tell. I still think he is worth a top 20 selection but you would want a great culture, leadership group and resources to make sure it happens, but I think he is able to be turned around.

 

[Megaman123]

Toumpas still can slide past 4, to pick 5, but expect Melbourne go with him over Wines being that better fit for that group.

White is mostly considered a mid draft option. May be there, may not but the chance could well be there and if it is it could be a real chance to capitalise as Collingwood did last year with Paine who some had going 1st round and if looking ok.



It's looking possible and increasingly likely. The situation is all the clubs in that top half of the draft want midfielders and knowing the success clubs have had in the rookie draft with ruckmen over the years and with the new ruck rules making the quantity of ruckmen less important it seems clubs are really lowing their views on how highly ruckmen are now traded and more of this could be seen in the future with new avenues to draft bigs coming through such as the new International - with those big Americans clubs might also be seeing opportunities there.

Another thing worth knowing with Grundy is that he didn't interview great. Not so much in the way you'd think, but during the interview process he was from reports really questioning clubs hard about how they would go about developing him and was really testing them and with some clubs questioning them in interview whether they are well credentialed enough to develop him into the dominant ruckman he aspires to become which seems to have really scared off the bottom dwellers, GWS in particular which is why the talk of North Melbourne and Geelong with room for another young ruckman might be in the mix with Collingwood also mentioned as a potential destination - though I'm not buying him getting past Geelong who will as always go best available.

He might be a Cat. Watch for it. More likely than his talent suggests it should be and is a clear top 5 talent in this draft so if it works out this way - which I'm also leaning towards myself Geelong will be one of the big draft winners.

Adding Grundy would mean Trent West can be traded next trade period which could in itself get an ok return. Grundy would likely compete for that no.2 ruck spot next year with McIntosh that clear no.1 but in the scenario it happens if McIntosh gets injured again I'd be playing Grundy as that no.1 ruckman. He could be that no.1 ruckman in round 1 if you wanted him to be but during the year serving time in the VFL won't do him any harm either and I think being in Geelong's strong program he'd be pretty accepting of the circumstance with the now once again strong ruck depth. From my experiences with these young ruckman as ready to play as they can it's always better to play them first up in the VFL before introducing them as regulars.

And yes I would absolutely take Grundy in Geelong's situation! No player who could be available at that selection would provide more value and with the way I see the Geelong ruck situation Vardy and West are more no.2 ruckmen. McIntosh is nearly 30 and with Simpson an unknown, Grundy would be that long term no.1 ruckman which from 16 when you can say that with confidence is not a bad get from an 18 year old!

Cheer KM, Grundy seems like he is more than capable as a marking target up forward as well. Would be another Geelong drafting coup which will have everyone shaking their heads how we got him if it happens!

Its interesting we choose to trade for McIntosh, says to me the club never really considered him a possibilty to slide that far. Obviously they must of rated him way below 16, so my fingers are crossed. All along I have hoped Stringer or Menzel would get through, in order which is the most likely now? Yesterday it was Stringer, today it is Grundy! Which of the 3 would you take if they were all there theoretically?

 

[Chris25]

Another thing worth knowing with Grundy is that he didn't interview great. Not so much in the way you'd think, but during the interview process he was from reports really questioning clubs hard about how they would go about developing him and was really testing them and with some clubs questioning them in interview whether they are well credentialed enough to develop him into the dominant ruckman he aspires to become which seems to have really scared off the bottom dwellers, GWS in particular which is why the talk of North Melbourne and Geelong with room for another young ruckman might be in the mix with Collingwood also mentioned as a potential destination - though I'm not buying him getting past Geelong who will as always go best available.

What?

Nowhere in there did you explain how he 'didn't interview great'. The kid is super serious about his football, he has been since he started at Sturt. That has never been a bad thing before. I would be extremely surprised if his interviews were anything but a positive from the club's perspectives. I daresay every club would have appreciated how professional he is.

And you've basically just said that the 'bottom dwellers' have poor development systems in place. Port Adelaide have Shaun Rehn who would be a pretty handy coach for Grundy. I reckon Steven King could certainly do him justice too. But if they were that concerned with not being able to develop a young ruckman, then wouldn't they rather someone naturally talented like Grundy, over a project rookie who requires serious work? Saying they were 'scared' is a little silly to say the least. It's just that GWS seem to favour trading in a ruck, and the other teams have even bigger holes through their midfields.

Sorry if I'm sounding overly critical, but I just think you're looking for a reason that isn't actually there. I just can't agree with any suggestion that Grundy would have interviewed poorly.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheer KM, Grundy seems like he is more than capable as a marking target up forward as well. Would be another Geelong drafting coup which will have everyone shaking their heads how we got him if it happens!

Its interesting we choose to trade for McIntosh, says to me the club never really considered him a possibilty to slide that far. Obviously they must of rated him way below 16, so my fingers are crossed. All along I have hoped Stringer or Menzel would get through, in order which is the most likely now? Yesterday it was Stringer, today it is Grundy! Which of the 3 would you take if they were all there theoretically?

I don't think any recruiter in the country in all honesty at the time of trade week had any incling that Grundy could/would slide into that mid 1st round region.

I do still like the move for McIntosh with West and Vardy more no.2 ruckmen who need to play alongside a true no.1 to play their best footy. If McIntosh can stay/get healthy he can really help Geelong's winning chances and is a genuine top 5 league ruckman at his best.

Still no guarantees Grundy is available at 16 for Geelong so regardless of what happens on draft day McIntosh was a good move. McIntosh is very good as a forward also, with Grundy also very capable forward of centre so that combination could work out very well as that Naitanui and Cox combo has for West Coast - with Cox really helping in a mentoring sense to get that best out of Naitanui in a way that he might not have been possible at say Melbourne had they taken Naitanui some years ago instead of Watts.

 

[Tazwegian]

Someone likely takes Wallace this year but I think with this being the start of the American recruiting more will be intrigued by the prospect of the move in future years and some taller, even more athletic prospects should come available. It's a very small part of it, but I can see it coming into the consideration when clubs think about looking at ruckmen from here on.

I would hope so. Considering that all they were brought over here for was there athleticism, they were pretty much duds. Particularly when you take into account they were all four years older than the Aussie kids. I was expecting records to be broken, they did nothing. Be a good story if Wallace ends up playing a game, but I wouldn't be wasting my time if I were an AFL club.