Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Knightmare]

What?

Nowhere in there did you explain how he 'didn't interview great'. The kid is super serious about his football, he has been since he started at Sturt. That has never been a bad thing before. I would be extremely surprised if his interviews were anything but a positive from the club's perspectives. I daresay every club would have appreciated how professional he is.

And you've basically just said that the 'bottom dwellers' have poor development systems in place. Port Adelaide have Shaun Rehn who would be a pretty handy coach for Grundy. I reckon Steven King could certainly do him justice too. But if they were that concerned with not being able to develop a young ruckman, then wouldn't they rather someone naturally talented like Grundy, over a project rookie who requires serious work? Saying they were 'scared' is a little silly to say the least. It's just that GWS seem to favour trading in a ruck, and the other teams have even bigger holes through their midfields.

Sorry if I'm sounding overly critical, but I just think you're looking for a reason that isn't actually there. I just can't agree with any suggestion that Grundy would have interviewed poorly.

While clubs may not have left thinking he wants to play for us, I actually strongly agree that he has the drive to improve. You can tell with the way he has put on muscle these past years that he hits the gym hard.

In what I was saying I was suggesting that Grundy wants to land at a club where he can get the most out of his game and was really pressing clubs about how they can improve him, really asking them about their programs. I personally really like this and as I've said before and will say again is exactly why I would draft Grundy. He wants to get that maximum out of his game and by doing that clearly demonstrates that drive to get better and be a part of success. It just feels like he came off in a way where he wouldn't be interested in joining a losing team or a team without what he considers a positive culture. I am over-reading into this with Grundy and having not seen the interviews in person you never really know, but this is my very strong sense and I'd be surprised if any of this was even slightly off from everything I have seen, read and heard.

In my assessment of why clubs are overlooking him it's really a combination of everything I mentioned to varying degrees. The ruckmen selected early draft just don't have that same success. Clubs seem to be more aware that the best have come from the rookie draft - Cox, Sandilands, Mumford, Jolly, Jacobs and that they don't have to spend a 1st rounder.
You are right that more clubs are looking to trade for ruckmen. GWS can very easily add another one later on when they need one and are competing for wins/premierships with the increasing sense that they think they can just add one anytime, which likely will be when they start to really climb and become that top 8 side.

 

[Rich o man]

Someone likely takes Wallace this year but I think with this being the start of the American recruiting more will be intrigued by the prospect of the move in future years and some taller, even more athletic prospects should come available. It's a very small part of it, but I can see it coming into the consideration when clubs think about looking at ruckmen from here on.



Garlett could go 2nd round or not at all. Different situation to Darling and Darling off the field wasn't nearly the same issue with smaller personality questions which is probably the kind way to put it. Clubs are outright saying no with 15 clubs believed to have completely put a line through his name with the other three clubs (unknown) to perhaps consider him.

You are right about Garlett's talent. Top 5 quality talent, but his issues, for completely different reasons could move him out of the draft completely as happened with Manson last year.

Darling might just be one of those selections all us hobby recruiters on bigfooty got right with the clubs getting it wrong. I wonder whether Garlett has it in him to do the same? Time will tell. I still think he is worth a top 20 selection but you would want a great culture, leadership group and resources to make sure it happens, but I think he is able to be turned around.

Surely someone would pick him up as a rookie if he was ignored in the draft.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Surely someone would pick him up as a rookie if he was ignored in the draft.

The thing is, it's his off field problems that are the query over him. Drafting on the rookie list isn't going to change anything and if clubs won't draft him in the ND, they won't draft him in the rookie draft.

 

[Defacto]

latest draft is so infavor of the pies its not funny

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Clurey and Wright to the Saints. I would love that if the draft panned out that way.

 

[manny100]

Hi KM, I think i might get my fingers burnt on this one - i was 100% sure Grundy would go top 3. I must have missed the global mind shift to you can get ruckmen late in the draft or rookie. I would have thought a bird in the hand etc (if Grundy is as good as they say). The reality (i think) is that there are plenty of good mids that come late in the draft or through rookie also. There will also be more good mids in next years draft than good young ruckmen. Maybe the game is changing where elite mids are far more valuable than elite ruckmen?? Maybe its a group think that will change if say a Grundy (or another potential gun ruckman) is picked up late first round and ends up a competition beater?
Maybe Sheedy's belief that you cannot win priemerships without top talls is no longer as true now as it was when he was winning them at the Dons?
Anyway i guess it pays to be less cetain and more curious!!!

 

[Tazwegian]

latest draft is so infavor of the pies its not funny

They are a smart team and trade well. I wish I didn't have to hate them

 

[DaVe86]

I like the 3 you have for us KM, but the obvious criticism is we have selected the 2 short people of the draft to go along with Blair and Elliot who are also in the midget category.

I'd probably prefer to get Longergan in there as he seems to have a good leap on him, but that said Hrovat and Kennedy are fantastic players.

Agree that we need a tall with one of those picks. Happy with O'Brien.

I still remain keen on Garlett. My dream 3 picks would be:

18: Hrovat/Lonergan or Kennedy
19: O'Brien
20: Garlett


But then again who knows if a guy like Grundy, Stringer, Vlaustian etc drops and that would be awesome too.

 

[dermott]

I liked your final mock draft KM. I think Hawthorn is likely to take a tall like McBean or someone similar at 29 unless someone they really rate slides more than anticipated.
They have also shown a lot of interest in Hams if he is around for their later picks.
You have certainly nailed the types of players they want and all will be revealed tonight. Thanks for your contribution this year, I always enjoy your insight pre draft.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

KM, I love St Kilda's selections; Clurey, Wright and Close as our first three selections cover three clear deficiencies on our list. I notice that you didn't give St Kilda much of a chance of securing Clurey with a number of clubs around the 15-25 mark keen on him. What has changed your view? Have you some inside knowledge/has Adelaide forfeiting their picks played a significant part? Cheers.

 

[halfback dasher]

km ....strange request , can you rate the kid Heatherliegh for me where he sits in next yrs draft and his potential , the reason I ask knowing full well he's next yr is it may play a factor in our thoughts this yr as we have him locked away already.
Cheers Dash.

 

[Hayley1234]

km ....strange request , can you rate the kid Heatherliegh for me where he sits in next yrs draft and his potential , the reason I ask knowing full well he's next yr is it may play a factor in our thoughts this yr as we have him locked away already.
Cheers Dash.

Hey Dash,

KM did list Heatherly in the rankings for 2013 at number 20. Check out the first page.

 

[Matty411]

KM - pretty good mock up. One thing though - Aside from Blues getting Menzel at 11, I highly doubt we'll go for 4 defensive players with our next picks (if we use them at all). If a player of Wood/Membrey's calibre (even Paparone) at 35 I reckon we'll jump. Otherwise it'd be best midfield talent available surely.​

 

[billyboutsis]

What?

Nowhere in there did you explain how he 'didn't interview great'. The kid is super serious about his football, he has been since he started at Sturt. That has never been a bad thing before. I would be extremely surprised if his interviews were anything but a positive from the club's perspectives. I daresay every club would have appreciated how professional he is.

And you've basically just said that the 'bottom dwellers' have poor development systems in place. Port Adelaide have Shaun Rehn who would be a pretty handy coach for Grundy. I reckon Steven King could certainly do him justice too. But if they were that concerned with not being able to develop a young ruckman, then wouldn't they rather someone naturally talented like Grundy, over a project rookie who requires serious work? Saying they were 'scared' is a little silly to say the least. It's just that GWS seem to favour trading in a ruck, and the other teams have even bigger holes through their midfields.

Sorry if I'm sounding overly critical, but I just think you're looking for a reason that isn't actually there. I just can't agree with any suggestion that Grundy would have interviewed poorly.

does it ever surprise you that Knightmare's thread continuously has more people asking questions than yours even though you might be better at this drafting caper? its because you come across as arrogant and egostical douchbag. Have a nice day.

 

[Mofra]

Isnt roughead playing KPD lately? and is Cordy going to develop into that ruck???

Roughy does play FB now, and Cordy is more forward/2nd ruck. We have Minson and Campbell, although both play a first ruck style.
I'd be satisfied with Grundy but Stringer is that versatile HF McCartney stated earlier in the year we need on the list, and Macrae as an outside mid would suit us perfectly.

 

[Sin City]

does it ever surprise you that Knightmare's thread continuously has more people asking questions than yours even though you might be better at this drafting caper? its because you come across as arrogant and egostical douchbag. Have a nice day.

Don't think a bit of robust discussion on a player they've both watched a fair bit of is a bad thing billy. Imagine if he gets picked at 17 or 18, would be great to look over this argument. Don't think either of them are douches.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Is wines the type of player that you would look to tag if he's in form? Or would you just let him rack them up?

 

[Chris25]

does it ever surprise you that Knightmare's thread continuously has more people asking questions than yours even though you might be better at this drafting caper? its because you come across as arrogant and egostical douchbag. Have a nice day.

What do we reckon folks? Surely calling a mod a douchebag is card worthy?

As long as Knightmare doesn't mind our discussions, then I'm not really bothered by anything else.

 

[Sunny_]

I still love you, Chris.

 

[Nickos66]

Somebody tell Billy this isn't the bay and name calling isn't the norm in these parts, grow up.

 

[Knightmare]

Surely someone would pick him up as a rookie if he was ignored in the draft.

With a number of clubs saying strongly implying "we will under no circumstances take Garlett" it may not happen as the talent suggests it will.

It's one to wait for but I wouldn't be betting on anything re. Garlett other than he won't feature in the top 15. Rookie is possible but it seems more likely it's either 2nd round or third round or not at all.

Hi KM, I think i might get my fingers burnt on this one - i was 100% sure Grundy would go top 3. I must have missed the global mind shift to you can get ruckmen late in the draft or rookie. I would have thought a bird in the hand etc (if Grundy is as good as they say). The reality (i think) is that there are plenty of good mids that come late in the draft or through rookie also. There will also be more good mids in next years draft than good young ruckmen. Maybe the game is changing where elite mids are far more valuable than elite ruckmen?? Maybe its a group think that will change if say a Grundy (or another potential gun ruckman) is picked up late first round and ends up a competition beater?
Maybe Sheedy's belief that you cannot win priemerships without top talls is no longer as true now as it was when he was winning them at the Dons?
Anyway i guess it pays to be less cetain and more curious!!!

You'd think so and his talent all year suggested that he certainly should/would. GWS seem more intent on adding ruckmen later on, perhaps through trade/free agency as they become more of a contender.

That top 3 is now locked in with Whitfield, O'Rourke and Plowman believed to be selected top 3.

Just no clubs early draft needing a ruckman and Grundy has fallen further than his talent suggests he should which is unfortunate but I'm not sure he'd mind if he lands on a Geelong or Collingwood as has been rumoured these past 24 hours.

I do agree with the idea that you win with bigs and in GWS' position I'd be taking him at 14 with the knowledge that the other clubs inbetween likely pass on him, but at 14 in my view also represents too much value to pass up, regardless of whether they intend to add another ruckman or not.

km ....strange request , can you rate the kid Heatherliegh for me where he sits in next yrs draft and his potential , the reason I ask knowing full well he's next yr is it may play a factor in our thoughts this yr as we have him locked away already.
Cheers Dash.

Kurt Heatherley if a heck of a player. Have been impressed with what I've seen. He looks like a 1st-2nd round quality prospect and one Hawthorn will absolutely lock away. Hawthorn might just have found that long term key defender who can kick Shoenmakers out of the rotation.

Heatherley athletically is excellent, has a 55, maybe 60m kick on him and will play key defence. Has been known to push up the field and kick long goals when the opportunity is there. Solid shutdown player and can add some rebound.

One to get excited about and I suspect most clubs would have loved for him to be available to them.

KM - pretty good mock up. One thing though - Aside from Blues getting Menzel at 11, I highly doubt we'll go for 4 defensive players with our next picks (if we use them at all). If a player of Wood/Membrey's calibre (even Paparone) at 35 I reckon we'll jump. Otherwise it'd be best midfield talent available surely.​

Lowrie has been mentioned as a possible back flanker but he's very capable through the midfield and he can be drafted as a midfielder. Had an excellent season in the colts with a senior debut late season.

As inside types Nathan Stark and Sam Heavyside are two I'd really look at late for the hard inside types. Neither are tall but they both have really impressive games with their hardness at the footy.

Wood certainly won't be available at 35 and could go as high as 15 recent speculation is suggesting, Membrey probably not available but if there I agree an absolute must get. Paparone a consideration but might go more third round so could be one to look at there.

Is wines the type of player that you would look to tag if he's in form? Or would you just let him rack them up?

I'm not sure break a tag, as he isn't that running type. But he's really that inside Jobe Watson type who will win all the inside ball. But he is someone I suspect when clubs realise just how good he is, clubs will really have to set up tactics around the stoppages to limit his influence as he is really that elite, big bodied inside midfielder of this draft and someone who clubs will really need to plan for.

 

[telsor]

With a number of clubs saying strongly implying "we will under no circumstances take Garlett" it may not happen as the talent suggests it will.

It's one to wait for but I wouldn't be betting on anything re. Garlett other than he won't feature in the top 15. Rookie is possible but it seems more likely it's either 2nd round or third round or not at all.

I think the problem is the need to keep a close eye on him and the influence he would have on the rest of the playing group/culture. He wont be less work, or less of an influence as a late pick/rookie.

If a club doesn't think a top-10 talent is worth the work/risk by around pick 50-60, then another 50 picks (into the rookie draft) wont change that calculation significantly.


Edited to add...
Wonder if it's possible to pick the kid up on the rookie list, but let him play elsewhere...Just tell him that if he keeps his nose clean for the year, he'll be upgraded and/or allowed to join the squad.

 

[halfback dasher]

Thanx mate , won't bother pump'n up your tyres again ......you know how good you are !!!

 

[texdog]

I really like your phantom draft and it looks quite likely you will be correct. Very in-depth which I like and you have the doggies taking all players i like. VERY GOOD

 

[Banana Boots]

Next update you'll have Wines with WBD potentially passing. In a team where Wines can get the midfield minutes he could well be the rising star for next year and that higher production immediate inside midfielder so that's one to look out for.

After that though there might be some surprises for a couple of other team with the major early changes early being Jaksch to 9 which might make change the dynamic some with Menzel sliding to 11, Vlastuin to 15 and Grundy to 16.

Some other minor tweaks but these are the bigger name, curious changes which will be different to most of the rest of the drafts.

Now your just killing me!