Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Sin City]

#10 Fremantle – Matt Scharenberg (SA – Def/Mid)Height: 189cm, Weight: 88kg, DOB: 18/09/1995

This kid here is going to be one bloody good player.

Yeah, terrific size and really nice mover. Reckon he's the one to watch next year.

Have you seen much of Nick Robertson LM?

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

It is curious how the hit rate is so high with pick 7s and Oliver Wines this year I think is every chance to continue that tradition this year. It's one of those relative mysteries but my theory with the draft is more it's better to have draft picks in the relative strong points. In 2012 it was picks inside that top 20 and the more the better and with that even top 20 I think Collingwood specifically could really capitalise in a rare way getting lucky and moving into those selections in that sweet spot. Some years it can be a top 15, some years a top 30 so it does vary.

I think Geelong and Adelaide are probably those two recent standouts in a draft sense with the way they have gone without bottoming out but Sydney have always through trade continued to remain up which for such an extended period just goes without equal.

I'll be changing the order of both the power rankings and the first round order plenty as I find out more and watch more footy. More names will emerge, some will drop off through poor form. Plenty changes so expect a very different order after the u18 champs and another very different order again as we approach the draft and things become more clear.

Yeah what I saw of Wines (Vic C. v SA) he really looks composed, mature, psychotic attack on the ball. Seems ready made and you'd imagine him having a Selwood type first year impact (except he's playing for Port). I guess if you are going to tank you should probably tank for pick 7!

Here's hoping our 18,19 and 20 are in that sweet spot KM.

The fascinating case-study in the draft for me will be GC and GWS in about 5 years from now. Will they be smashing it or will they be inspid? Teams like Melbourne have seemingly managed to p .... away dozens of early draft picks over an extended period. Is it possible for a side (GWS) to have about 25 first round draft picks and not win a flag? To me that has to be a sign either of poor selection or else proof of the moneyball theory that you just don't know what a kid is going to be at 17 or 18 and are better off taking the more mature route to list management (the Sydney model).

I'll be interested to see how you order shifts over the next 12 months.

 

[Knightmare]

The fascinating case-study in the draft for me will be GC and GWS in about 5 years from now. Will they be smashing it or will they be inspid? Teams like Melbourne have seemingly managed to p .... away dozens of early draft picks over an extended period. Is it possible for a side (GWS) to have about 25 first round draft picks and not win a flag? To me that has to be a sign either of poor selection or else proof of the moneyball theory that you just don't know what a kid is going to be at 17 or 18 and are better off taking the more mature route to list management (the Sydney model).

I'll be interested to see how you order shifts over the next 12 months.

I think it will take both clubs a bit longer than they would like.

If you want a measure a 15%-20% ladder increase per year is a more realistic goal for both clubs.

So Gold Coast are probably around that top 8 mark 3 years from now. Contendor in 5 years. With GWS add a year being that year young list but with the increased consessions they can go that 10-15% further and become a force. Probably not a concern for the rest of the competition with another 5-6 years with the way they are more interested in building and re-investing in the draft and young talent than building for now, which is understandable in their current position.

Predicting ahead is imprecise and things can change with various list moves, injuries and players not developing as expected or becoming better than expected but I think Gold Coast are very optimistic in their premiership prediction.

 

[theasian]

Is James Aish related to Michael Aish?

 

[Sin City]

Is James Aish related to Michael Aish?

James is Michael's nephew.

 

[Knightmare]

Is James Aish related to Michael Aish?

Nephew of Michael.

Football is in his blood.

 

[bjlucas]

Could someone tell me which players from Geelong Falcons that might get drafted/rookied/other prospects please?

 

[Knightmare]

Could someone tell me which players from Geelong Falcons that might get drafted/rookied/other prospects please?

The Falcons have a strong group next year and I'm expecting plenty to get drafted.

Watch out for: Lewis Taylor, Aaron Christensen, James Tsitas, Nicholas Bourke, Darcy Gardiner and Fraser Fort.

 

[gifted1]

The Falcons have a strong group next year and I'm expecting plenty to get drafted.

Watch out for: Lewis Taylor, Aaron Christensen, James Tsitas, Nicholas Bourke, Darcy Gardiner and Fraser Fort.

although not eligible hugh goddard will be interesting to watch next year at the falcons

 

[Knightmare]

although not eligible hugh goddard will be interesting to watch next year at the falcons

Not wrong. He looks like the clear no.1 for 2014. One of the better key forwards coming through in some time.

It's going to be hard to see the Falcons not going all the way this year with Goddard and that real quality top end with probably 6-7 drafts next year if the draft was held tomorrow.

 

[Tazwegian]

Could be another good year for Tasmania by the look of it. I'll be watching more TSL this year to get a good gauge on the guys coming through. Will keep you posted on my thoughts, as usual.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I'm a sucker for Mock Drafts so consider this thread subbed.

 

[bombermick]

KM - is Jake Long not eligible 'till 2014? Have you seen much of him?
Safe to say Hugh is a better talent than BJ?

 

[footymaad]

True but from what I understand they haven't actually committed to Gribble as yet opposed to the other two.

In reality not committed to anyone as yet - in the end will depend how the Lions recruiters (and those from other clubs) rate all the potential Qld players and what round draft pick they are willing to give up for them vrs what the other clubs are willing to bid. If Conway and Tickner do have good years in 2013 and by next years draft are rated highly by other clubs, would the Lions be willing to give up picks 1 and 2 for them? Could potentially mean they had no access to drafting other players till round 3 ? Alternatively if others dont bid on them could potentially get at bargin at lower picks?

 

[Knightmare]

KM - is Jake Long not eligible 'till 2014? Have you seen much of him?
Safe to say Hugh is a better talent than BJ?

Pretty sure Jake Long is 2014.

The Goddards are different. Hugh is more of a key forward - so something closer to Nick Riewoldt though a better athlete.

Too early to say who has the better career but Hugh certainly has the chance to go on and be a great player in his own right. We'll see more of him this year but he looks like a ripper if early signs are anything to go by and at this stage looks probably that first real clear, outstanding no.1 selection since David Swallow in 2010.

 

[yaco55]

In reality not committed to anyone as yet - in the end will depend how the Lions recruiters (and those from other clubs) rate all the potential Qld players and what round draft pick they are willing to give up for them vrs what the other clubs are willing to bid. If Conway and Tickner do have good years in 2013 and by next years draft are rated highly by other clubs, would the Lions be willing to give up picks 1 and 2 for them? Could potentially mean they had no access to drafting other players till round 3 ? Alternatively if others dont bid on them could potentially get at bargin at lower picks?

Thought you could only take one player from the Academy.

 

[juzzo]

I have a dream team oriented question KM. Obviously Daniher is a gun and will get games but will he struggle like most young tall forwards? Or is he so talented he can impact straight away? What about Tom Lee with an extra couple years under his belt?

 

[CallumBartlett]

In reality not committed to anyone as yet - in the end will depend how the Lions recruiters (and those from other clubs) rate all the potential Qld players and what round draft pick they are willing to give up for them vrs what the other clubs are willing to bid. If Conway and Tickner do have good years in 2013 and by next years draft are rated highly by other clubs, would the Lions be willing to give up picks 1 and 2 for them? Could potentially mean they had no access to drafting other players till round 3 ? Alternatively if others dont bid on them could potentially get at bargin at lower picks?

Tickner has already been committed to I know for a fact, there was a great write up on the lions site about it but it was months ago during the season, so look that one up if you want. I'm not sure on Conway but other people have said we have committed to him and considering how talented he is, I wouldn't not believe that. Gribble hasn't been committed to as yet, more a wait and see but if all things stay the same we could grab as a priority selection with our last rookie pick (See Jordon Bourke, Claye Beams). This is where my understanding is shady but I thought we could grab them with our last picks opposed to our first picks. I think your thinking it's like a father-son bidding rule but I believe since they've been through the academy we could grab them as a zone selection (See Alex Sexton, Jackson Allen), so basically we grab them for scraps pick 80 and 90 for example. I may be wrong on that but I believe thats correct, which if so and all things stay true we grab at least two elite kids for nothing.

 

[CallumBartlett]

Thought you could only take one player from the Academy.

Nah

 

[CallumBartlett]

Tickner has already been committed to I know for a fact, there was a great write up on the lions site about it but it was months ago during the season, so look that one up if you want. I'm not sure on Conway but other people have said we have committed to him and considering how talented he is, I wouldn't not believe that. Gribble hasn't been committed to as yet, more a wait and see but if all things stay the same we could grab as a priority selection with our last rookie pick (See Jordon Bourke, Claye Beams). This is where my understanding is shady but I thought we could grab them with our last picks opposed to our first picks. I think your thinking it's like a father-son bidding rule but I believe since they've been through the academy we could grab them as a zone selection (See Alex Sexton, Jackson Allen), so basically we grab them for scraps pick 80 and 90 for example. I may be wrong on that but I believe thats correct, which if so and all things stay true we grab at least two elite kids for nothing.

Sorry didn't really explain that well, basically as I understand (and I could be wrong), we have committed to Tickner and Conway whom we can grab with late picks in the national since it's not father-son no one can "bid" on them. Gribble we probably won't commit to but if things stay the same he should slip through to the rookie (Claye Beams esque) anyway. We could have done the same with Jordon Bourke but our last "live" pick was 32 so it would have been a waste to spend that much. So as I understand:

Brisbane Lions

National Draft:
1st pick (10 roughly): Player x
2nd Pick (30 roughly): Player Y
3rd Pick (50 roughly): Player Z
4th Pick (70 roughly): Isaac Conway (Zone Selection)
5th Pick (90 roughly): Cain Tickner (Zone Selection)

Rookie Draft:
1st Pick (10): Player X
2nd Pick (30): Player Y
3rd Pick (50): Player Z
4th Pick (70): Sam Gribble (Priority Selection)

 

[Knightmare]

I have a dream team oriented question KM. Obviously Daniher is a gun and will get games but will he struggle like most young tall forwards? Or is he so talented he can impact straight away? What about Tom Lee with an extra couple years under his belt?

I never like to bet on key forwards when it comes to first year production.

I think Daniher will have a couple of big games but I'm not expecting a Jeremy Cameron level first year and output will be more glimpses of special as opposed to anything at all resembling a complete picture.

If Gumbleton is out injured and looks to be out for a period of time then if struggling for forward rookies might be worth a look as a bench option but I wouldn't be starting him on the field in either fantasy game.

10 games is probably a realistic goal for Joe at this point I would have thought and might average around 50ppg DT, 55ppg SC if looking for some idea on what he likely averages. He'll have games where he averages 80, some where only 30.

Lee probably a better option as an immediate guy. Had a quality season in the WAFL up forward and has that real proven production behind him to suggest he can be a more solid option, but again in DT I'm not a fan of those key forwards and he probably averages somewhere around 60ppg. As a bench option will probably take him but it depends on what St Kilda plan with Kosckitzke and who of the two is played first, but my bet is Lee with Watters keen to inject more relative youth into the team.

 

[juzzo]

Sorry didn't really explain that well, basically as I understand (and I could be wrong), we have committed to Tickner and Conway whom we can grab with late picks in the national since it's not father-son no one can "bid" on them. Gribble we probably won't commit to but if things stay the same he should slip through to the rookie (Claye Beams esque) anyway. We could have done the same with Jordon Bourke but our last "live" pick was 32 so it would have been a waste to spend that much. So as I understand:

Brisbane Lions

National Draft:
1st pick (10 roughly): Player x
2nd Pick (30 roughly): Player Y
3rd Pick (50 roughly): Player Z
4th Pick (70 roughly): Isaac Conway (Zone Selection)
5th Pick (90 roughly): Cain Tickner (Zone Selection)

Rookie Draft:
1st Pick (10): Player X
2nd Pick (30): Player Y
3rd Pick (50): Player Z
4th Pick (70): Sam Gribble (Priority Selection)

If you wish to select an academy player at the national draft you must nominate these players prior to trade week. A meeting will then be held where clubs will have the opportunity to bid on them in the same way as father-son selections. If no clubs bid then your last available selection will be used. Although you may have verbally committed, no team can truly commit until the bidding process is complete as seen with Jack Viney this year.

If you don't nominate anyone and they are not taken in the national draft or pre-season draft, then you may pre-select them on your rookie list as a zone selection(category B). No teams can bid and your last available rookie selection will be used.

Rule 37 if you wish to read further.
http://www.aflpa.com.au/images/uploads/AFL_Player_Rules_-_March_2011.pdf

 

[Asgardian]

I never like to bet on key forwards when it comes to first year production.

We have high hopes for John Butcher in 2013, hopefully those hip problems will be behind him.

 

[bombermick]

KM - You said Hugh Goddard looks one of the best key forwards in some time. I assume you're including prodigious talents like Cameron and Daniher in that analysis. If so, what makes him so special?

 

[Knightmare]

KM - You said Hugh Goddard looks one of the best key forwards in some time. I assume you're including prodigious talents like Cameron and Daniher in that analysis. If so, what makes him so special?

Cameron and Daniher are without a doubt in that same conversation.

I'd probably take Cameron first with what he has already proven at AFL level so immediately but being a prelisted type he wasn't a part of the traditional draft process and Daniher being a F/S is another where at no.1 overall again he wasn't an option and I was talking more specifically about that no.1 overall selection, though with Cameron and Daniher if in the draft as normal or in Daniher's case not a F/S selection it probably wouldn't have been as clear-cut as what it looks like with Goddard.

Goddard has a lot that puts him ahead of the rest. Athleticism very impressive with his pace and leap. Skills excellent, nice long kick already with a good 50-55m penetration already which he uses well. Then also has that ability overhead as well as at ground level. He can become stronger and become more of a contested marking presence to take that next step but still so young and has a long way to go being those 2 years away from even being draftable but signs to this point very, very encouraging and he absolutely has recruiters excited and looks that clear no.1 for 2014 at this point anyway.