Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Balony_pony16]

The draft combine doesn't concern me. Testing results can help to explain bits and pieces of on field performance but beyond that it doesn't add or remove any value in my eyes anyway to specific draft prospects. AFL clubs put more weighting into testing than I do but I'm more interested in the on field performance and then how they interview and how their personalities check out.

You can be Joel Wilkinson and break the AFL 20m sprint record and still not know how to use it offensively in game to effect as well as Lewis Jetta who may be 0.2 seconds slower so I don't put any value into it.

In saying that clubs do care but I'd say more it affects the draft positions for those marginal talents who are boarderline selections.

Kolodjashnij will still go 5-15 as expected. There has been talk for some time that he has the opportunity to go top 10 so that may help him establish inside that range if a club was strongly considering him and just wanted that extra little bit of re-assurance. But beyond that I can't imagine it would that greatly change things in his specific situation.

Kolodjashnij is much more outside than Fyfe. No chance he establishes that same inside game. He's more a Robert Murphy. Much better kick than Fyfe, but then again not too many guys are worse by foot than Fyfe.

Thanks... Nice write explanation and I too agree about draft combine. Too be honest I really fear for lions any time they may draft a player after being influenced by draft combines as it seems to add that "potential" tag to players. I just want real 100% footballers at the lion for the time being.

personally Im near on sold on Lewis Taylor... Just the sort of player we need in our midfield to straighten us up by line breaking

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Dunno. I remember Jesse Lonergan's draft position, as per bigfooty PDers, rising by around 20 over the space of the combine last year. I was one of those people that's confidence in him going high became much greater during the combine. Most of the PDers had him around 30-35 pre-combine, was inside some top 10s by the end of the combine and most had him top 20. Recruiting isn't an exact science and to think that recruiters could be 100% sure they have correctly evaluated a player's athletic ability just by watching a few games a year and going over what is available of their club fitness testing is a bit naive. They'd have a fair idea what they can do, but a strong combine will certainly peak their interest imo.

Conversely, a poor combine can drop you down significantly regardless of how well you were playing all year - Brody Mihocek... You really don't want to finish bottom 5% in anything.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks... Nice write explanation and I too agree about draft combine. Too be honest I really fear for lions any time they may draft a player after being influenced by draft combines as it seems to add that "potential" tag to players. I just want real 100% footballers at the lion for the time being.

personally Im near on sold on Lewis Taylor... Just the sort of player we need in our midfield to straighten us up by line breaking

He's a ready to go midfielder and he has some star talent.

He can really take on the game and break the lines so he has that natural x-factor.

On a team as long as there aren't too many smalls he can be an asset and a fit as a mid/fwd.

He may not have the upside of some of those other prospects with those shorter types usually not improving so much once in the AFL system relative to the talls but he's not someone who needs to improve that much more. He'll need to become a stronger tackler and continue to grow as an inside ball winner at AFL level but he's got a good inside/outside combination with that pace and skill to suggest he makes it and could play a meaningful role for a team.

 

[JPod_31]

KM. I read your phantom draft again and read about a guy called Guy Dickson. He sounds like a top 10 pick. Where is his draft range and would Geelong pick him up with pick 52 or late? C2B

 

[maverick001]

The draft combine doesn't concern me. Testing results can help to explain bits and pieces of on field performance but beyond that it doesn't add or remove any value in my eyes anyway to specific draft prospects. AFL clubs put more weighting into testing than I do but I'm more interested in the on field performance and then how they interview and how their personalities check out.

You can be Joel Wilkinson and break the AFL 20m sprint record and still not know how to use it offensively in game to effect as well as Lewis Jetta who may be 0.2 seconds slower so I don't put any value into it.

In saying that clubs do care but I'd say more it affects the draft positions for those marginal talents who are boarderline selections.

Kolodjashnij will still go 5-15 as expected. There has been talk for some time that he has the opportunity to go top 10 so that may help him establish inside that range if a club was strongly considering him and just wanted that extra little bit of re-assurance. But beyond that I can't imagine it would that greatly change things in his specific situation.

Kolodjashnij is much more outside than Fyfe. No chance he establishes that same inside game. He's more a Robert Murphy. Much better kick than Fyfe, but then again not too many guys are worse by foot than Fyfe.

And if Kolodjashnij had the potential to be a better kicking version of Nat Fyfe then he would go very very early i would have thought

 

[Balony_pony16]

And if Kolodjashnij had the potential to be a better kicking version of Nat Fyfe then he would go very very early i would have thought

Well they called henderson the next pavlich didnt they and he only went #8

 

[Damo80]

And if Kolodjashnij had the potential to be a better kicking version of Nat Fyfe then he would go very very early i would have thought

Although he said he can kick better, he also said "much more outside". So you can't value him based on him being "better kicking version of Nat Fyfe".

 

[Sin City]

He has the best kick of any of the draftees that I have seen from Tassie. He spots up targets very well, and his kicks are bullet like at times. All players butcher a kick or two every now and then, but you have to admit his field kicking is high quality.

Try again

Buckley Kicking Test:
Toby Nankervis 27/30
Ben Brown 27/30
Kade Kolodjashnij 26/30
Zac Webster 26/30
Alex 'The Cannibal' Pearce 26/30
Jake Kolodjashnij 25/30
Brady Grey 22/30
Eli Templeton 20/30

 

[swansfan51]

Stationary, with no opposition. Oh dear.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Josh Kelly hit 28/30. He's killing it in a few areas already.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Try again

Buckley Kicking Test:
Toby Nankervis 27/30
Ben Brown 27/30
Kade Kolodjashnij 26/30
Zac Webster 26/30
Alex 'The Cannibal' Pearce 26/30
Jake Kolodjashnij 25/30
Brady Grey 22/30
Eli Templeton 20/30

Because that's the most valid measure of kicking ability

 

[Sin City]

Because that's the most valid measure of kicking ability

It's better than not going to games yet still sprouting it all over the internet with nothing to base it on

In your own words:

Conversely, a poor combine can drop you down significantly regardless of how well you were playing all year - Brody Mihocek... You really don't want to finish bottom 5% in anything.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Agility
1. Zac Webster (7.97 seconds)
2. Daniel Flynn (8.08)
3. Richard Bourne (8.15)
4. Darcy Byrne-Jones (8.15)
5. Karl Amon (8.18)
6. Dylan Main (8.25)
7. Daniel Cox (8.26)
8. Dayle Garlett (8.29)
9. Ben Brown (8.29)
10. Tom Barrass (8.32)

Boom!

 

[Rancid Trogs]

Hey Knightmare,

just a couple of questions:

1) Sydney have signed Perris as a rookie - and as such can apparently take him with their last rookie selection. Who do you see the Swans taking with pick #31 now?

2) What are your thoughts on the current F/A transfers (Franklin to SYD, Sylvia to FRE, Thomas to CAR, Betts to ADE, Mumford to GWS)? Will these change your draft order at all?

3) Have you heard any clubs interested in Dayle Garlett - apparently North are keen. If the Roos add Dal Santo, McDonald and Garlett, and learn from their narrow losses in 2013, I can see them being a very good side in 2014. Their list looks in good shape with all bases covered. Your thoughts?

4) With the loss of draft picks (and thus a reduced ability to trade) I can see the Bombers stagnating. Who do you think Essendon will trade and what will they get in return?

Cheers in advance

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

It's better than not going to games yet still sprouting it all over the internet with nothing to base it on

I agree, but also respect Knightmare's right to do so.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Ben Brown seems to be testing extremely well for speed, agility and kicking, apart from anything else, especially for someone his size.

 

[Sin City]

I agree, but also respect Knightmare's right to do so.

I wasn't talking Knightmare.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

I wasn't talking Knightmare.

Interesting, because you described him so well

Sorry if you are hurt that I didn't want to meet up with you at the games or whatever, but I dont meet up with strange men from the internet. Nothing personal. But it should be obvious to anyone who has seen Eli play (ie not KM) that he is an excellent field kick, much better than Grey for example, which just shows how invalid the test is, more so than anything wrong with Eli's kicking. It is also obvious he is carrying an injury.

 

[BrockBlitz]

Flynn.

Did we do good ?

 

[Sin City]

Interesting, because you described him so well

Sorry if you are hurt that I didn't want to meet up with you at the games or whatever, but I dont meet up with strange men from the internet. Nothing personal. But it should be obvious to anyone who has seen Eli play (ie not KM) that he is an excellent field kick, much better than Grey for example, which just shows how invalid the test is, more so than anything wrong with Eli's kicking. It is also obvious he is carrying an injury.

Knightmare has probably seen him play more than you. It shouldn't be obvious to anyone that has seen him play because he's not, simple as that and you were the one just further up the page stressing the important of combine results.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Knightmare has probably seen him play more than you. It shouldn't be obvious to anyone that has seen him play because he's not, simple as that and you were the one just further up the page stressing the important of combine results.

You're struggling now. Further up the page I said that draft combines can make a difference in where players end up getting recruited, not that combine tests such as the kicking test make for a valid measure of actual kicking ability. Not in the same way a 3km time trial, a leap test, or a beep test make reliable measures of what they are testing for.

Eli's field kicking is excellent. Not sure what you are watching. He has a very good ability to spot up targets. If you want data, compare his DE to KK's during the champs. Slightly higher, despite having a slightly higher CP to UP ratio, and would workout about even if you take into account his slightly higher handball to kick ratio. If you then factor in that Kade is a little more prone to switch for a safer sideways kick than Eli, who advances the ball a little more frequently - and usually under a bit more pressure than Kade - I think it is fairly safe to say Eli finds targets by foot more often than Kade. (Although to be fair, probably does kick long to a contest a bit more often than Kade).

Moreover, his passes, particularly when hitting up a lead, seem to have a better trajectory than Kade's and most other people's. He has got a good flat pass on him when kicking under 40 metres or so. Kade is by no means a world beating kick, but he is reliable. Eli is better. To say that he isn't an excellent kick is ridiculous, and you are the only person who has that opinion. All you have to back it up is a silly field kick test, which according to it, Brady Grey is a better kick than Templeton

 

[Sin City]

You're struggling now. Further up the page I said that draft combines can make a difference in where players end up getting recruited, not that combine tests such as the kicking test make for a valid measure of actual kicking ability. Not in the same way a 3km time trial, a leap test, or a beep test make reliable measures of what they are testing for.

Eli's field kicking is excellent. Not sure what you are watching. He has a very good ability to spot up targets. If you want data, compare his DE to KK's during the champs. Slightly higher, despite having a slightly higher CP to UP ratio, and would workout about even if you take into account his slightly higher handball to kick ratio. If you then factor in that Kade is a little more prone to switch for a safer sideways kick than Eli, who advances the ball a little more frequently - and usually under a bit more pressure than Kade - I think it is fairly safe to say Eli finds targets by foot more often than Kade. (Although to be fair, probably does kick long to a contest a bit more often than Kade).

Moreover, his passes, particularly when hitting up a lead, seem to have a better trajectory than Kade's and most other people's. He has got a good flat pass on him when kicking under 40 metres or so. Kade is by no means a world beating kick, but he is reliable. Eli is better. To say that he isn't an excellent kick is ridiculous, and you are the only person who has that opinion. All you have to back it up is a silly field kick test, which according to it, Brady Grey is a better kick than Templeton

Now you're just making things up. Maybe next year you could try something different like actually watching them play and you might get a but closer to the mark.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Now you're just making things up. Maybe next year you could try something different like actually watching them play and you might get a but closer to the mark.

Which part is wrong? I have seen four of Eli's TSL matches, plus champs. Sorry if I am unwilling to travel to Burnie and Hobart every week to watch TSL games I never claimed to watch every game, but I have seen enough to make a valid opinion of his kicking ability, particularly considering when I am there, I don't really care about the game, just keeping an eye on the draft agers. Not sure why you are so sore. Eli's an excellent kick. Get over it

Unlike KM, for players I have seen very little of, ie Pearce, I don't even bother trying to give a detailed opinion of where they should go or how good they might be. But I have seen enough of Eli to be confident of what I have seen. I know he is a good kick, doesn't struggle against the big bodies, and has an impressive work rate (apart from in the last two games of the finals series where he was most likely injured and hardly even looked interested in shrugging his tag for the most part).

 

[Sin City]

Which part is wrong? I have seen four of Eli's TSL matches, plus champs. Sorry if I am unwilling to travel to Burnie and Hobart every week to watch TSL games I never claimed to watch every game, but I have seen enough to make a valid opinion of his kicking ability, particularly considering when I am there, I don't really care about the game, just keeping an eye on the draft agers. Not sure why you are so sore. Eli's an excellent kick. Get over it

He's not an excellent kick, he's proven that all season. He's got his good points but kicking most definitely isn't one. Doesn't matter too much, you're the one that's made to look silly when he proves it like he did today.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

He's not an excellent kick, he's proven that all season. He's got his good points but kicking most definitely isn't one. Doesn't matter too much, you're the one that's made to look silly when he proves it like he did today.

I feel pretty silly right now. He got 20/30 on the kicking test with a dodgy left shoulder so all my arguments are invalid. KM has also been made to looks silly too: "Templeton is a very clean user of the footy and uses it well by hand and foot". No he isn't, KM, because he got 20/30 on the kicking test and Sin City says he is an ordinary kick so that must be the case because he has probably seen two more TSL games than me all season.