Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

LRT will likely spend some time there as well, he was used there quite a bit in 2012 when Mumford was injured.

Fair point. The only issue I see here is that you've got a lot of defenders reaching the end - Richards and LRT are both 30 - yet not a lot of experienced talls to replace them. Johnson has played close to 50 now I believe, but past him your younger tall defenders probably aren't ready to hold up those key positions by themselves. I feel like your premiership window is open for quite a few more years, but with LRT likely going at the end of this year and Richards only having a couple max most likely, it's an interesting balancing act between pushing for best results and ensuring that your next batch are coming through. Obviously you don't drop Richards, but LRT is your best option in the ruck if you don't want Tippett to be there too often.

Apologies if I'm missing somebody as I'm definitely no expert, I just see Sydney's situation with talls to be really intriguing.

 

[Danair]

Fair point. The only issue I see here is that you've got a lot of defenders reaching the end - Richards and LRT are both 30 - yet not a lot of experienced talls to replace them. Johnson has played close to 50 now I believe, but past him your younger tall defenders probably aren't ready to hold up those key positions by themselves. I feel like your premiership window is open for quite a few more years, but with LRT likely going at the end of this year and Richards only having a couple max most likely, it's an interesting balancing act between pushing for best results and ensuring that your next batch are coming through. Obviously you don't drop Richards, but LRT is your best option in the ruck if you don't want Tippett to be there too often.

Apologies if I'm missing somebody as I'm definitely no expert, I just see Sydney's situation with talls to be really intriguing.

Hopefully Reid gets sent to CHB next season (where he played as a junior)

 

[Knightmare]

You can scrap Lloyd Perris from pick 31 who do you think the Swans will go with there?

Perhaps a back flanker if one slides - Battersby and Z.Jones if there would be bargains. Otherwise perhaps a tall gets consideration if someone represents value.

Hey KM, thanks for your work here mate, hours of interesting reading!
Do you have any info on Charlie Kelso? Is there any chance he'll get picked this year?

Kelso is an effective tap ruckman. I presume this was his first year playing AFL as I can't find any stats on him before this year. Very tall at 208cm. Not great around the ground. Very much a development project being an overager who hasn't done a whole lot yet.

In saying that he has shown some signs and he's someone I'd like to see persist with his footy even if he goes undrafted as that kind of height is hard to come by.

Hey Km,
What are your chances on Brisbane picking up freeman with the possible 1st round pick from hawthorn in a longer trade

Also what are your thoughts on Braden Ferrari from the western jet and the likelihood of him being drafted next year

Freeman probably doesn't last that late. To narrow down his draft range he most likely goes in the 10-15 range but allow a five draft position margin from error either side. It's possible but highly unlikely he is available at that selection. If he's there he'd represent excellent value considering his weapons and potential to develop but it's highly unlikely he'd be there so you'd have to plan for life without Freeman if Brisbane were to acquire that selection.

Ferrari has shown signs and it's fantastic that he's been a regular this year. That's a good start. It's a strong year for KPPs with a number of KPPs likely to go in the first round along so getting drafted outside of those 10-15 better knowns at this stage has to be up in the air. But he does have an opportunity to get drafted next year if he continues to expand his game and continue to develop.

As a Hawthorn supporter its good to hear Thorp's name in the mix to get re-drafted, do you have any idea how another ex-Hawk Travis Tuck is going?

Tuck seems to have behaved with no news being good news. He's had a strong season through the midfield for West Adelaide and has proven one of the better onballers in that competition.
Whether he gets undrafted is an unknown but he's playing strong footy and would be among the 10 or so in the SANFL with the talent to get/get back onto an AFL list.

Interesting. I see Lobb as one of the best placed ruckmen in the draft to make somewhat of an impact in his first year; he may not be huge through the body but he plays a very mobile game. Don't think he'll immediately play a big part in an AFL side but I think as a sort of relief ruckman he could play some games.

My issue with Sydney is basically what you've said above. Pyke isn't a number one ruckman as his value is mostly in a split between forward and ruck which favours forward time. Goodes and Tippett can both ruck but neither is ideal for the side. But with Buddy, Tippett, Goodes and Rohan in the forward line, where does a second ruckman fit? I agree that the most likely scenario is that Tippett shares the ruck duties, but do you see that as an ideal situation? He was recruited to give them potency close to goal, but if he's forced to ruck 30-40% of the time I see it as a bit of a waste.

It's a very lean year for ruckmen. Don't expect any Brodie Grundy's. That's for sure.

I assess those not currently on AFL lists as all projects. Lobb I agree has shown signs but the standard in the WAFL is many steps behind that of AFL level. But I do think he has the opportunity to develop and develop into a real player.
The reason I see him as a project is in looking even beyond his thin frame but also to his stats.
Mark Seaby in the same competition had: 783 hitouts, 364 disposals, 105 marks and 14 goals from 22 games.
Lobb on the other hand had: 291 hitouts, 147 disposals, 40 marks and 1 goal from 12 games.
In considering roughly the level of playing Seaby is as what I'd consider an AFL depth player who is capable of playing senior footy but probably ideally not your no.1 ruckman it suggests that Lobb still requires further development to be able to hold his own at the next level as someone who is relatively a number of steps down in all aspects of his game at this early stage in his career.

On your analysis of Pyke and the rest of the Sydney forwards/talls I am in 100% agree. Pyke is ideally a no.2 ruckman as someone who can ruck but he's a dominant contested mark. Tippett the same, he's tall enough to ruck but he's clearly a key forward with that marking presence and contested marking ability he has.
I'd be playing Pyke as the no.2 ruckman (mostly forward), Tippett as a pure key forward, Franklin as a key forward and when required for balance up the ground.
Goodes and Rohan I'd probably play more up the ground though and more as wingmen along with Jetta and rotating forward as required.
I'd be playing that whole group together with Pyke again mostly forward and Tippett perminant forward and still go for the pure no.1 ruckman whoever the best available is evaluated to be (say Trent West who probably splits the ruck minutes with Pyke).
I'm not so worried about them being too tall. Goodes/Rohan/Franklin are all so good at ground level for their height and all so quick that I wouldn't class being tall as a concern with that group. It's a team where the size can work and really work well assuming Sam Reid moves back.

Do you think any of the NSW academy players (Green, Hiscox, Gibbons, King etc) are draftable?

There are a number of draftable guys in that group. Not high end but they can get drafted.

Green as a late draft option as an outside, linkup option with a hard running game could prove a good get. He's just not super damaging and doesn't hit the scoreboard all that much which is why he's more a late option.

Jack Hiscox I haven't seen a whole lot of but he's shown that he moves well and plays a good two way game which is a positive. He just hasn't dominated games or shown that one thing that pops out at you.

Gibbons is exceptionally productive and a excellent at TAC Cup level but he's short and by foot has his issues.

Then King is an intriguing athletic type at that height and has been regarded as a high character guy which you love to hear and suggests that he'll work for it. He just doesn't have the performances on the board to interest me personally as a low production guy who is all project and will need more time than clubs will be willing to spend.

King is the most likely of the group to get selected and probably goes somewhere around that 3rd round mark. Green could also feature late draft. Hiscox and Gibbons may feature in the draft but my bet at this stage is they are passed on.

 

[Knightmare]

Fair point. The only issue I see here is that you've got a lot of defenders reaching the end - Richards and LRT are both 30 - yet not a lot of experienced talls to replace them. Johnson has played close to 50 now I believe, but past him your younger tall defenders probably aren't ready to hold up those key positions by themselves. I feel like your premiership window is open for quite a few more years, but with LRT likely going at the end of this year and Richards only having a couple max most likely, it's an interesting balancing act between pushing for best results and ensuring that your next batch are coming through. Obviously you don't drop Richards, but LRT is your best option in the ruck if you don't want Tippett to be there too often.

Apologies if I'm missing somebody as I'm definitely no expert, I just see Sydney's situation with talls to be really intriguing.

Richards and Grundy are the established key defenders for Sydney along with Johnson who is an exceptional young key defender but went down with that knee.
Reid I'd like to see develop into a key defender for Sydney and Roberts-Thompson can be a forward/defender as required and has at various stages had success in both roles. Just depends on team balance and what Sydney want to achieve.

Sydney like a tall team and aren't afraid to play taller than many others would typically play so don't be surprised if they play the lot of their quality talls if they're all healthy and playing strong football again next season.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

KM, has the combine results changed any of your views on the first round? Kelly performed outstanding, and as a result the HUN (specifically Sam Landsberger) is saying AFL clubs expect him to go #2 in the draft. I must admit that's quite different to most views I've heard/read with Aish going #2.

 

[thetradesman]

KM Is there any chance of Hartung going earlier?

He seems like the exact type of player we need, quick and he can run all day.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, has the combine results changed any of your views on the first round? Kelly performed outstanding, and as a result the HUN (specifically Sam Landsberger) is saying AFL clubs expect him to go #2 in the draft. I must admit that's quite different to most views I've heard/read with Aish going #2.

My power rankings and projected draft order have slightly changed since my last update. I haven't touched my rankings this week.

I'm not concerned by any of the testing. It hasn't changed my opinion on anyone. At least not until I hear some revealing rumours of what happens in the interviews.

Kelly may still go pick 2. I'd just pick Aish first as someone who has a touch more special to him. Whether clubs agree we'll have to wait and see over coming weeks.

KM Is there any chance of Hartung going earlier?

He seems like the exact type of player we need, quick and he can run all day.

Hartung has by many coming into the week been ranked a 10-20 talent so he can certainly go higher than I have him at present.

I'm just sceptical of a small outside only midfielder who doesn't win his own footy. He's going to have a hard time defending those new generation taller mids who can push forward on him, take marks and hit the scoreboard. Whether he can work through that I'm not confident. I'll be watching with interest. I suspect he'll have to transform more into a forward which will be interesting to watch.

 

[clipboardbinocs]

I'm guessing Hodgson and Bourne were just invited to make up the numbers?

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Cheers KM. Is there are particular reason you have St Kilda selecting Berg at #3? Is that the feel you're getting from recruiters or pure speculation on your behalf based off your power rankings?

 

[daniel23]

km for someone who doesn't know to much about this crop of draft hopefuls how do you rate this years talented mids compared to last year ??? mccrae, toumpas, wines ,o orourke would those boys place similar in order they were selected if in this draft or is this year stronger

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers KM. Is there are particular reason you have St Kilda selecting Berg at #3? Is that the feel you're getting from recruiters or pure speculation on your behalf based off your power rankings?

Next update I'll have:
1. Boyd (GWS)
2. Aish (Melb)
3. Kelly (StK)
4. Billings (WBD)
5. Scharenberg (GC)

Not that I'd be selecting the same players at each selection.

I'd be taking (assuming NM take McDonald):
1. Boyd (GWS)
2. Crouch (Melb)
3. Aish (StK)
4. Sheed (WBD)
5. Bontempelli (GC)


My power rankings are who I'd take whereas my phantom draft will always be a prediction of who I think will go where on draft day without my personal opinions of players coming into calculations.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Next update I'll have:
1. Boyd (GWS)
2. Aish (Melb)
3. Kelly (StK)
4. Billings (WBD)
5. Scharenberg (GC)

Not that I'd be selecting the same players at each selection.

I'd be taking (assuming NM take McDonald):
1. Boyd (GWS)
2. Crouch (Melb)
3. Aish (StK)
4. Sheed (WBD)
5. Bontempelli (GC)


My power rankings are who I'd take whereas my phantom draft will always be a prediction of who I think will go where on draft day without my personal opinions of players coming into calculations.

Thanks KM. Crouch does look like a Paul Roos type selection (if they keep pick 2) however all the hype for pick 2/3 seems to be around Aish/Kelly.

 

[Knightmare]

km for someone who doesn't know to much about this crop of draft hopefuls how do you rate this years talented mids compared to last year ??? mccrae, toumpas, wines ,o orourke would those boys place similar in order they were selected if in this draft or is this year stronger

There are more good inside midfielders early this year but the higher end talents last year are better (Wines particularly and I'd argue Macrae is better than most this year also) and would be taken first.

If Macrae/Wines/Toumpas/O'Rourke were in this years draft.

You might see the draft order go as follows:
1. Boyd (GWS)
2. Wines (Melb)
3. Aish (St.K)
4. Kelly (WBD)
5. Scharenberg (GC)
6. O'Rourke (WCE)
7. McDonald (NM)
8. Billings (Bris)
9. Macrae (GWS)
10. Toumpas (Coll)

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks KM. Crouch does look like a Paul Roos type selection (if they keep pick 2) however all the hype for pick 2/3 seems to be around Aish/Kelly.

Melbourne could pretty easily trade down to pick 10 and grab Crouch there or a selection around that range as well as an established player in a trade with a team.

They have plenty of options at the trade table if they don't like their options with pick 2.

 

[sflgenius]

Knightmare pencil freeman in for top 5 mate tested through the roof at combine to possibly have the best combine testing in history- port adelaide told him theyl take him with first pick aswell as paul roos tellin him with his physique and testin results theres absoulutely no readon they shouldnt take him at pickk 2

 

[philthy05]

Knightmare pencil freeman in for top 5 mate tested through the roof at combine to possibly have the best combine testing in history- port adelaide told him theyl take him with first pick aswell as paul roos tellin him with his physique and testin results theres absoulutely no readon they shouldnt take him at pickk 2

`

where did you hear this and do you trust it?

 

[Besiktas145]

Anyone got any idea whether or not TAC cup Morrish Medalist Jacob Chisari will get picked this year?

 

[pauldrc]

Can't possibly see Brisbane taking Taylor over Crouch (although Taylor does look a great prospect).

The need for an inside mid is probably the highest priority of the players available at around this pick (unless of course Boyd somehow slid, or they trade to a higher pick)....

 

[Godogs247]

There are more good inside midfielders early this year but the higher end talents last year are better (Wines particularly and I'd argue Macrae is better than most this year also) and would be taken first.

If Macrae/Wines/Toumpas/O'Rourke were in this years draft.

You might see the draft order go as follows:
1. Boyd (GWS)
2. Wines (Melb)
3. Aish (St.K)
4. Kelly (WBD)
5. Scharenberg (GC)
6. O'Rourke (WCE)
7. McDonald (NM)
8. Billings (Bris)
9. Macrae (GWS)
10. Toumpas (Coll)

No McCrae is top 5

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Hey Knighta, the Saints have signed rookie Tom Curren up for two years, so will upgrade him during the draft.

 

[Knightmare]

Anyone got any idea whether or not TAC cup Morrish Medalist Jacob Chisari will get picked this year?

Chisari has had an excellent season in the TAC and was a worthy shared Morrish Medalist. Just so much depth and quality in the smalls available this year and with Chisari not invited to the draft combine and not being selected for the nationals it's unlikely he gets selected.

No McCrae is top 5

That post was an indication of where they might get selected rather than where I would select them.

Macrae for example I would take before Josh Kelly. It doesn't mean that AFL recruiters would agree with me.

Hey Knighta, the Saints have signed rookie Tom Curren up for two years, so will upgrade him during the draft.

Rookie updates will come later on once I get the full list of selections at the completion of this free agency and trade period.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Knightmare pencil freeman in for top 5 mate tested through the roof at combine to possibly have the best combine testing in history- port adelaide told him theyl take him with first pick aswell as paul roos tellin him with his physique and testin results theres absoulutely no readon they shouldnt take him at pickk 2

I will kiss you if we take Freeman if he's available.

 

[Ducky Tie]

Knightmare, how would you compare Gaff and Kelly? Not just on style, but on what they have the potential to achieve in their careers. You have Kelly really low in your power rankings, why is this?

 

[bananatigz]

Hey KM, who do you see as a few smokies for rebounders on a half back flank who could go 3rd round on, best from the state leagues maybe?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, how would you compare Gaff and Kelly? Not just on style, but on what they have the potential to achieve in their careers. You have Kelly really low in your power rankings, why is this?

I do see both pretty similar.

Both will likely remain outside players at the next level with their thin builds and difficulty going inside and winning their own ball. But on the positive both can run all day and use the footy well - Kelly perhaps a touch better in that he's more duel sided.

Kelly in the TAC and u18s flutters around inside but he's not someone who will go in head first and win it. And if he's not doing it against small bodies good luck changing that against bigger bodies.

They can both have good careers but I don't see either player being top players on their lists.

They are more components of a winner team rather than a reason why you win. Both will likely be top 5-15 players on a team list which is fine, but I wouldn't be paying a top 5 pick for that.

Hey KM, who do you see as a few smokies for rebounders on a half back flank who could go 3rd round on, best from the state leagues maybe?

Thomas Hodgson and Darcy Byrne-Jones from the 3rd round will get considered. Steven Edwards has some incredible pace. Josh Pitson also has some special to him. Nathan Drummond has some serious pace also.

Tom Langdon and Isaiah Miller as taller back flankers would be strong choices.

But for state leaguers David Mirra is probably the better option I'm seeing. He has a strong shutdown game but can also provide some rebound. He could be another Michael Hibberd type story if things go right.

Josh Glenn if he nominates for the draft as a damaging rebounder would be a very good get.

George Hampson as a high production, classy rebounder could be an option. Brayden O'Hara is one who has been on the radar for some time and could also be a solution.

There are some options.