Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Sunny_]

Combine heights are incorrect. Think they are +2 of where they should be.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Is it really difficult to put their correct heights up or something?

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Combine heights are incorrect. Think they are +2 of where they should be.

Does that mean Acres is actually 188cm not 190cm?

 

[Knightmare]

Since there are lots of comments about Bontempelli and his height I'll start out by addressing him. He's 192cm. But those who are speculating that 194cm is too tall for a full time midfielder I'll be the first to disagree and disagree strongly.

Not everyone here follows the NBA. But did anyone watch Magic Johnson in the 80s. He was 6'8 (207cm) and played point guard. When drafted there were strong doubts that he'd make it with so many saying that it couldn't be done at that size. He proven them all wrong. LeBron James can do the same things at that same height and also play the point - a position typically associated with guys who are sub 6'3 (192cm). Both Magic and LeBron have demonstrated that through their superior skills that they can dominate a position associated with relative smalls in basketball terms because they can do the same things those smalls do but then also have that size, power and vision advantage other smalls can't achieve giving them a unique and big competitive advantage over any competition they will/have ever faced.

The heights being suggested in the AFL for midfield play are not that different to the current norm. Pendlebury is 191cm. Mundy is 192cm. There just aren't that many with the skillsets yet required to make it at the position. 10 years from now 190cm+ midfielders will be the norm and we'll probably 15 years from now have some genuine 200cm+ full time midfielders who have the skillsets of smalls and have that same ability at ground level as any small but then have that extra height and power allowing them to dominate the position in a way others can't.

hey knightmare, who do you think would be the best available selection for north's second round? it currently sits at 25 i believe but could easily be pushed back to 28-29 after compensation picks come in. Losing Delaney seems likely, so a backup KPD could be useful and also some outside run is what we are lacking through the midfield. What would be the best options for both those areas around this pick? cheers mate

25 onwards gets tricky this year. From there it's so even and open to interpretation.

I'd go best available and hope a slider - perhaps a James Battersby or Zac Jones if they are available.

Those next on my power rankings may even go as late as the rookie draft so they probably don't need to be selected in the second round. Ben Sokol is a fair chance to slide as a rookie. Charlie Cameron probably does later.

Of those next on my rankings of those who probably are available Rory Lobb and Luke Reynolds would probably be those I'd look at in the second round in North's situation as those next available ones who may not be available in the 3rd round.

If looking for a key defender I'd look to Matthew Sully late draft. He's got more years of experience under his belt having played strong VFL footy this year and is someone who can develop with the list or play as soon as next year if you want him to. A natural replacement for Delaney there is no better way to replace him without breaking the bank.

If lacking run through the midfield Jonathon Marsh can really light it up. He could be had in the 2nd round. If looking for a cheaper option Nicholas Bourke as a tall outside mid with some real pace could also be a strong option.

Thoughts on Tomas Bugg, Knightmare (or anyone else), including his strengths and weaknesses and what sort of draft pick he'd be worth this year in a trade? According to today's HSun he's keen to leave GWS. Does he play midfield, or mainly down back and where did he play in the juniors? Thnx in advance.

How sure are you that he has grown to that height?

I like what I've seen of Bugg to this point. He could be worth a late 1st rounder.

He's mostly played as a run with player for GWS both down back and through the midfield. He's mostly outside and light bodied. High motor, has above average pace, high production and disciplined. Good but not great user of the footy and with his light body isn't a natural ball winner but off a back flank or in a run with role he can be a component of a team without being a centrepiece.

Thanks for that. He may be the modern and slightly taller equivalent of a Jarred Brennan if he grows another inch or two. Really liked the look of him in the 2nd half of that last Vic Metro game at the champs. Just has that "something" and I love the way he moves.

Brennan is a great comparison for Bontempelli and it's one I've been thinking about for a little while. He's a less lazy version Brennan so he better has that opportunity to fulfill his potential but he's that similar height and type as a versatile, athletic freak who has skills and can do some unusual things others can't at his height.

Roos is looking to play Watts as a mid at 195cm. Also he will probably give Howe more time as a mid to get some strength/size around the ball. Whether it works? Here's hoping!!

It will be interesting to see how that goes with Watts. Personally I like it. Melbourne have enough KPPs as is. More than set for key forwards. Watts has the athleticism, skills and ability at ground level. If he can prove he can go inside and win it that will be interesting and probably my greatest question. On a wing is where I can see Watts achieving that easier success. Pushing forward to take marks. Linking up with his skills and even using his pace to break the lines. The next Richo on the wing. That's what I'd be looking at in Melbourne's situation.

 

[God Save Max King]

Brett Anderson has said the Combine heights are all 2cm off. Bontempelli is 192cm.

That would mean Boyd, Scharenburg and McCarthy are all shorter than they were last year. I reckon AFL Combine would be correct.

 

[WAFLfan1969]

That would mean Boyd, Scharenburg and McCarthy are all shorter than they were last year. I reckon AFL Combine would be correct.

Might have been cold?

 

[Knightmare]

What Clubs will select Rookies this year and what players are best suited to be a rookie pick
rather than being picked up in the main draft.

There will be more rookie selections to be confirmed with more rookies still to be delisted by clubs.

Dayle Garlett is the perfect example of someone you may not select in the national draft but could as a rookie take a chance on. As a rookie you don't need to sign a guy for two years as you do in the national draft and with Garlett obviously talent but having his issues and not turning up for club interviews and I wouldn't chance a national draft selection on him but for a club looking to win now, taking him as a rookie, sure.

There are some speedy types who are less recognised talents who also with their talents might be worth a shot as a rookie. Josh Pitson, Steven Edwards and Jarrod Stokes are some that come to mind.

Ben Sokol as an unconventional bodied type (think Dane Swan) is another I think may be overlooked in the natinoal draft but in the rookie draft could be one of those selections who can turn to gold.

Otherwise mature agers who probably get overlooked, crumbing forwards and project ruckmen have historically also proven to be strong rookie choices as types clubs typically overlook in the national draft.

 

[Footyking123]

Knightmare what are you concerns over Isaiah Miller seem to rate him very low compared to others. E.g Chris.
Also would have thought Aish would be a lot higher in the power rankings. Thoughts...

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare what are you concerns over Isaiah Miller seem to rate him very low compared to others. E.g Chris.
Also would have thought Aish would be a lot higher in the power rankings. Thoughts...

Chris25 likes his flankers. I don't as much with my interest early mostly in elite key position players, midfielders who can win their own ball early. Guys with freak pace and other special attributes and more mature guys later.

Miller is a tall flanker. Effective by position but lacks anything that pops out at you. Skilled but he's not going to do the damage or penetrate the game as McDonald will. Not as silky as Aish. And not the precision kick on the Battersby level. Not so good 1v1 that he'll beat every forward he plays on every time. And while he's a good mover at his size he's no Steven Edwards or Nathan Drummond with the way they break the lines. I'm just not seeing that point of difference or anything that puts him over the top.

 

[Chris25]

Can't compare Miller to Aish or Battersby, completely different players. Similarly, Drummond and Edwards are both 182cm whereas Miller is 188cm. They'll play different roles again. That would be like comparing Kolodjashnij to Zak Jones.

 

[RR#9]

Don't mean to be the token flog friend or relative that talks up the draftee.

But...I do know of Marcus and believe he measured in at 192.8 at the combine, probably still has a tiny bit left due to the late birthday year but believe he is well and truly a midfielder. Was or still is a very good basketballer and has grown up playing shooting guard to small forward role which I believe has helped his above average awareness and agility. Was never one of the real tall players either but has had a substantial growth spurt in the past 2-3 years.

His strengths from watching his games are his run and carry, that most know or have spoken about, his ability to go forward and kick goals but also be that Birchall-Smith type player to break the lines. I find the most interesting one that not many have commented about or know of, is his ability to raise his arms in a tight contest or while getting tackled and make clearing handballs that I rarely see in any other juniors. I know it might sound simple but this is highly effective.

In saying that he does lack some defensive pressure but has improved vastly since the start of the year and I think will continue to do so once he fills out and can repetitively hold tackles at contests. I do know that he ran a very good 3km I think with a 10.20 or so and a 28/30 in the kicking I believe. That's my spill, feel free to pay out on me if I have blown to much smoke up his sphincter haha.

 

[Knightmare]

Can't compare Miller to Aish or Battersby, completely different players. Similarly, Drummond and Edwards are both 182cm whereas Miller is 188cm. They'll play different roles again. That would be like comparing Kolodjashnij to Zak Jones.

That doesn't answer what Miller has that other draftees don't.

Luke McDonald is the guy at that size I look at as the example of the best in the draft. He does everything Miller does but to an elite level with his kicking with that precision and penetration. Pace with that way he breaks the lines. 1v1 winning his contests. Pushing into the midfield and offering further versatility.

Miller doesn't posess that something that stands him out from the next draftee in the same way as any of the other prospects. Being 187-192cm doesn't just automatically make you the perfect sized prospect.

I'm conscious that sub 176cm guys particularly peak early and you have to treat those guys as how they are today and those taller can develop more into their 20s but otherwise you take the guy who can do more to influence the outcome and for lower level talents those more likely to hold down a role are the guys you take first rather than an "ideal sized guy" who is relatively skilled but doesn't have a point of difference.

 

[Chris25]

That doesn't answer what Miller has that other draftees don't.

He reads the play better than most - something which is very underrated on BigFooty, because you can't directly test for it or see it from statistics. He is smart with his ball use - not every kick has to be a 60m bullet. On the rebound, he knows how to hit the holes and get around opponents - again, not a case of simply being able to sprint away but actually using his vision. Plus he has senior experience in the VFL. He is simply one of the most natural rebounders in the draft.

You can mention McDonald, but there is a reason why he is going at #8 as opposed to Miller who I would suggest is a 20-30 prospect.

 

[BigCat2]

Don't mean to be the token flog friend or relative that talks up the draftee.

Good to have your input mate. What's his work ethic and discipline like?

 

[Knightmare]

You can mention McDonald, but there is a reason why he is going at #8 as opposed to Miller who I would suggest is a 20-30 prospect.

There are still some good footballers who will go 20-30. A Dunstan or Dumont could slide into that range. Battersby probably goes in that range. Jones, Harvey, Reynolds. There will still be some talent left.

After that top 25, maybe 30 the draft does open up to interpretation and preferences but personally I wouldn't be comfortable selecting Miller before the 3rd round.

McDonald and Battersby would be my picks as the natural rebounds of this draft. It's really McDonald, Battersby, perhaps Jones depending on what you see his best position and then the rest.

 

[Chris25]

Battersby is a natural midfielder. He did very well for SA, but Miller has him covered for natural feel down back. And everyone knows how highly I regard my South Australians.

 

[RR#9]

Good to have your input mate. What's his work ethic and discipline like?

No worries, I've been reading a fair bit so just want to clarify some things. He is pretty dedicated like most would be but is really switched on. He juggled the three almost four commitments well of Marcellin, TAC, Vic Metro and AIS really well. His discipline, training wise is fantastic with the knocks on him early not being hard enough which I believe may have come from being slightly skinnier the year before and coming off surgery on a broken collarbone which in my personal opinion may have affected him slightly, but don't preach that or take it too much to heart as I believe he is just fine now. I reckon he is almost too focused as he has been tagged a number of games especially in the last final where he was getting scragged a bit and he didn't retaliate, that is where I would like him to show a bit of knacker or even his teammates to give a chop out and give it back to them. I suppose that could be just me and would most likely end up hurting the team anyway.

 

[God Save Max King]

Battersby is a natural midfielder. He did very well for SA, but Miller has him covered for natural feel down back. And everyone knows how highly I regard my South Australians.

Putting my $0.02 on this, I agree with Chris25. Battersby is a midfielder and Miller's intangible values make him a better half-back.

 

[Pykie]

Battersby is a natural midfielder. He did very well for SA, but Miller has him covered for natural feel down back. And everyone knows how highly I regard my South Australians.

McDonald played all of the VFL finals off the wing, and averaged 32 touches a game in the TAC Cup finals last year out of the center square.

I think your both off, pigeonholing him as a running defender.

He's played as much on the wing for Werribee in the VFL as Aish has for Norwood in the SANFL.

To tell you the truth, I can't think of a game this year (other than the nationals) where he played mainly in the backline.

I've seen him play for quite a few years, this running backman stuff only started when he was assigned to Taylor Garner and Sam Mayes in last years nationals, for the rest of the time he's played as a genuine midfielder, especially for Oakleigh late last year.

 

[BigCat2]

No worries, I've been reading a fair bit so just want to clarify some things. He is pretty dedicated like most would be but is really switched on. He juggled the three almost four commitments well of Marcellin, TAC, Vic Metro and AIS really well. His discipline, training wise is fantastic with the knocks on him early not being hard enough which I believe may have come from being slightly skinnier the year before and coming off surgery on a broken collarbone which in my personal opinion may have affected him slightly, but don't preach that or take it too much to heart as I believe he is just fine now. I reckon he is almost too focused as he has been tagged a number of games especially in the last final where he was getting scragged a bit and he didn't retaliate, that is where I would like him to show a bit of knacker or even his teammates to give a chop out and give it back to them. I suppose that could be just me and would most likely end up hurting the team anyway.

Cheers. With his unique combination of attributes, if he's dedicated, he should put together a very respectable career. The memories of Jared Brennan are still fresh for me.

 

[Kawalsky]

Why are they + 2?

 

[Chris25]

I think your both off, pigeonholing him as a running defender.

I'm not pigeon holing him as anything. It's more just that McDonald himself has said that he is looking at spending a couple of years playing off half back, before moving into the midfield at AFL level. So for the sake of argument, that does put him in that group.

 

[Knightmare]

Battersby is a natural midfielder. He did very well for SA, but Miller has him covered for natural feel down back. And everyone knows how highly I regard my South Australians.

Looking at your picks this year there are a number of South Australians I rate more highly and probably would go with earlier than you have them: Dumont, Battersby, Harvey and Knight.

Again looking at your picks your love for those mid size types: 187cm-192cm relatively far outweights your love for South Australians with your rankings of many of the South Australians relatively fair overall with a few if anything lower than I'd have them.

Marsh at 5!? Acres at 6 is relatively acceptable but much higher than he'll go. Miller at 21!? Sicily at 27. There are some guys who you have way, way higher than they will go.
It comes from seeing Freo have success with some of those relatively taller midfielders - Mundy/Fyfe/Barlow and assuming so many of those mid sizers become midfielders but it takes more selectiveness than that. Marsh/Miller/Sicily specifically just aren't those same dominant accumulators or dominant talents even at the levels they are playing now and they're not on ballers either.
Geelong with those tallish flankers have had success but again they've pick the eyes out of the right talents which I wouldn't say of Marsh or Miller. Sicily from the 30s sure but again in the 20s not for me.

But with talent identification there will always be difference of opinion and this 187cm-192cm group both on those smaller KPPs and taller mids/flankers while I like them, I don't to that same level.

 

[Knightmare]

McDonald played all of the VFL finals off the wing, and averaged 32 touches a game in the TAC Cup finals last year out of the center square.

I think your both off, pigeonholing him as a running defender.

He's played as much on the wing for Werribee in the VFL as Aish has for Norwood in the SANFL.

To tell you the truth, I can't think of a game this year (other than the nationals) where he played mainly in the backline.

I've seen him play for quite a few years, this running backman stuff only started when he was assigned to Taylor Garner and Sam Mayes in last years nationals, for the rest of the time he's played as a genuine midfielder, especially for Oakleigh late last year.

You are right McDonald can play wherever he likes. On a wing, on the ball, up forward, down back. He's good where you want him to play.

I just like his package of attributes stationed on a back flank with that penetrating and precise kick, ability to break the lines and 1v1 ability those attributes I see as best suiting a back flanker and with that perfect blend of all I see him becoming the best back flanker in the competition which I wouldn't be inclined to say of him up the field. It's just my personal preference for his game just like what I said of Joe Daniher as someone I'd play as a key forward only last year. My outlook of where a guy should play isn't always where he eventually plays and where Joe and Luke end up stationed long term will be interesting to watch.

 

[Chris25]

You've completely misinterpreted everything there. I don't have a fascination with guys in that height range, nor am I obsessed with taller players because of Fremantle's relative success. I simply rate them higher than others, nothing more - remember, my draft isn't a prediction. In a draft lacking talent, I view the likes of Miller and Sicily as having the potential to be good AFL players. And anyway, I think they both fit into the range I have them in. You're trying to read into something that isn't there.

As for the South Australians, I won't go into detail there, otherwise I'll never stop. But I feel like some of your rankings and particularly comments are well off the mark. And I do get quite protective over them.