Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Spitter9]

based on your power rankings would the demons most likely have taken mcdonald at pick 2 if he was available?

 

[Legend23]

Medium forwards aren't my favourites unless they can also go through the midfield or do something to a special level.

Sicily can and likely does get drafted. He's a strong mark at his size but beyond that I'm not seeing what else he does better than the next guy.

Reynolds is young leadup medium marking forward. I'd like to see him get his hands on the footy more but he's someone who can do some serious damage and if he can find a way to get his hands on it more and be more involved more often then he could be a real threat for a team with that cannon of a kick he has on him.

Willsmore now that he has late season pushed more up the field and into the midfield and onto a wing becomes more interesting to me as a long kicking guy who can also go forward and take a mark. He's another who like Reynolds who has the opportunity if he lands in the right situation to make the grade.

Herbert was more a forward last year but this year has shown that he can play on a wing or even down back to a high standard as a strong marking type who can kick long but also cover the ground well and linkup. I like the versatility and as a wingman who can go forward and be a serious goalkicking threat that gives me some real optimism about his game.

Josh Scott unlike Rockliff hasn't shown that he can play up the ground and hasn't received that opportunity as more that undersized key forward. He doesn't have that same strong body as Rockliff does and he'd be hoping to become more of a Steve Johnson as a medium forward who maybe later on can push into the midfield. He's a productive forward and with his talents he could be a second inside 50 target so for a club looking for that he may be an option.

Scipione started the season well but then I feel dropped off slightly after that electric first month. He's a very good VFL player but hasn't shown enough ability to push into the midfield for my liking and is missing that one extra point of difference to take him over the edge.



You're right. But he'll also be better with experience and a better midfield around him. He's clearly not in the O'Meara/Wines/Vlastuin class as someone more outside but he can still become an excellent footballer with some of his weapons with that damaging kick and pace.



Crouch, Sheed, Bontempelli and Dunstan all fit that description reasonably well and better than the rest.

Bontempelli is probably that more creative by hand and as a taller midfielder whe can see more and is of the group along with Sheed that better kick so purely on that criteria. He's not the same contested ball winner yet and probably more a tall flanker who is showing some glimpses that he can be an inside midfielder but if you're ok with that he's the better fit for that description.



Brock McLean not a leader? He was before the trade touted as the next captain of the club.

It doesn't all have to be pure leadership. Just having that experience in the ranks. Young guys learn from the experiences of the veterans and it's this the Melbourne youth has missed most.
Young guys can only learn so much from one another and when that sheer quantity of experience is eliminated it hurts the development of the youth.



I agree none of the players you mention were strong selections.

Cale Morton as we've come to discover with the Morton boys over time is despite the obvious talent they're all soft and unwilling to put in the work required to become the stars their talent suggested they should. He was a consensus selection at the time but I agree with you someone who would fail in any system.

Gysberts was a big reach. I didn't rate him a top 30 talent in his draft year and seeing him at 11 was that one mistake big mistake from the club in that draft.

Small forwards like Maric don't need to be selected early which is something we've over time learnt with the success of guys like Milne, Betts, J.Garlett among others not even needing to go in the national draft with the evaluations on these small forwards as juniors often well off. Maric isn't a Cyril level talent so again I agree he didn't need to be selected to early.


In correctly identifying these talents who would have most likely struggled at most if not all clubs I feel obliged to point out some strong selections from Melbourne in recent times.
Sylvia, Jones and Frawley are some first round selections Melbourne got right. But lets look more recent with this recent period more the time Melbourne cop it for.

Dean Terlich and Matt Jones as mature age selections late draft have both proven to be relative successes. Jeremy Howe an excellent selection in the 30s. Gawn as a super tall ruckman was another success story in the 30s. Dean Kent as a selection in the 40s last year has something and mid-late draft was a strong choice. Michael Evans as another selection in the 40s has the opportunity to make the grade. Tom McDonald was an excellent value key defence choice in the 50s. Jordie McKenzie as a previous rookie selection has represented strong value.
Then the recent rookies have also looked good but then lacked opportunity. James Magner should be playing in the seniors and hopefully receives greater opportunity under Paul Roos and Mitch Clisby late season is another who has shown some promise as another clever mature age selection.

Melbourne have been inconsistent with their early selections. I absolutely agree but where our views differ are the total weighting of where things have gone wrong. The recruiters haven't nearly performed to the standard you'd hope but the coaches, development coaches, playing group, list management among others also are every bit as responsible for the clubs poor performances these past seasons and Paul Roos now that he's at the club will need to get every corner of the club right to improve the teams performance with the recruiters only one piece to the puzzle requiring many pieces.



Josh Kelly is one of the more sure things at the next level. He's a high motor, precise kicking outside machine who will go all day. But he's also got his limitations and is more an outside piece who can be effective on a strong team with a strong midfield.

Salem is a hard, physical beast. Perhaps doesn't go inside and win as much of his own footy as I'd like for him to but again he's another role player who I feel in the right situation can be effective for a team with his tackling and physical edge firstly immense but then also the ability to play good two way footy and with ball in hand do some constructive things with his run and carry game as well as his ability to do damage by foot.

Langdon has again elevated his game this year and is doing some more good things as that tall rebounding type. It will be interesting to see whether he gets selected this year but as a skilled, tall improving type he's exceptionally draftable and someone who could fit into a back flank for a team if things go right.

Ritchie is an efficient user of the footy who can provide some rebound and has played some solid roles down back but he hasn't dominated any games to really put his name up in lights so he most likely goes undrafted.

Amon has something. Not a high disposal getter yet but has some electricity to him as a speedster with a damaging kick who doesn't need a whole lot of it to do something constructive. He feels like he could play wherever you need him so he's draftable and I expect to get drafted. He'll just need to find a way to get involved in more plays and do more damage more often if he wants to make the grade.

Hayes at his height as a forward is a marking threat but there aren't too many medium forwards who only mark the footy. He's just missing something. Not a great pressure forward, can't push into the midfield to a high standard. He may get looked at and has an opportunity to get drafted but he's not my cup of tea.

Le Grice is a tall defender who has shown some signs this year. He has the opportunity to get drafted. He's just a bit slight and not dominant enough 1v1. He just hasn't shown me that he's a dominant player by position which is what I look for in my KPPs as much as he is one of the better tall defenders in the TAC.

Spencer as a key defender is one is very likely going to intrigue a club with his athleticism and rebounding game at his height. I'm just not convinced on him as a stopper or someone who will win all his 1v1s every week which is why again I'm not as confident though I'm not completely down on him either as someone who on the right team could become something (perhaps a Geelong/Adelaide as teams among those with better development programs).

James Munro is that year older but he's had a strong season and even held up ok in the VFL. I believe he was a relatively late starter? He's a real running type who will go all day. Still by foot not great but he's a real improver and from what I hear a worker so I wouldn't discount his chances as a late riser who possibly hasn't been spoken about enough.

Merrett I like. He's not going to win his own footy but he'll still find plenty of it on the outside and do his damage. You can never have enough guys who can do damage by foot and I think he's a certainty to get drafted and someone who has a real opportunity on the right team to find a role.

Thanks KM Appreciate your thoughts and agree in General with most. Not sure on Spencer feel he lacks the work rate to keep up with some of the key forwards, Hayes destroyed him in a BGS vs Haileybury game towards end of the season kicking five. Think Hayes is also better than you think and has played KP undersized all year. Kelly and Salem both Jets but very different. Kelly amazes me with the possessions he racks up. Should have won the Lark medal at the Championships.

Agree that Amon has something and should be looked at seriously.

 

[Knightmare]

KM would u be upset if the pies took Mitch Thorp at #45??
Or signed Seaby as a rookie?

Neither would upset me.

Seaby I like as a rookie rental who can provide some depth. I just see him as an unlikely target with Hudson looking set to hang around for another year. Had Hudson retired I would jump at Seaby as a rookie but with the club likely looking to pump more games into Witts and Hudson able to step up for a couple of games at a time I expect we pass.

Thorp in the third round is an option and one I'm open to. He's not a key forward answer but he's someone who is good enough to be a part of a successful forwardline and be a 2nd or 3rd option.
Assuming we stick with the forward combo of Cloke and Lynch, Thorp is someone who could play alongside them with both Lynch and Thorp players who push up the ground for their marks and get out of Cloke's way when they need to.

 

[Knightmare]

based on your power rankings would the demons most likely have taken mcdonald at pick 2 if he was available?

McDonald despite my rating has not had a great year other than this recent finals series.

Aish is the consensus pick 2 with a small portion of other scouts liking Scharenberg or Kelly. McDonald is mostly ranked as one of those next few along with Billings.

 

[Rockford]

Had Hudson retired I would jump at Seaby as a rookie but with the club likely looking to pump more games into Witts and Hudson able to step up for a couple of games at a time I expect we pass.

What's Witts' ceiling looking like now with Grundy at the club? He's only 21 still so I expect he's got some improvement left, I thought he was very good against the Blues and GWS this season. Is that a one off? Or something we'll see regularly in the future?

 

[tenderwarrior]

What's Witts' ceiling looking like now with Grundy at the club? He's only 21 still so I expect he's got some improvement left, I thought he was very good against the Blues and GWS this season. Is that a one off? Or something we'll see regularly in the future?

Witts is no good, neither is Lycett, Hickey, or Daniher

 

[Knightmare]

What's Witts' ceiling looking like now with Grundy at the club? He's only 21 still so I expect he's got some improvement left, I thought he was very good against the Blues and GWS this season. Is that a one off? Or something we'll see regularly in the future?

It's going to be difficult for Witts to find regular senior opportunities. Grundy is the clear no.1 ruckman already so it will limit Witts to that no.2 ruck role which isn't ideal for a 208cm ruckman even if he has proven that he can take some marks on the lead up forward.

Witts has shown strong improvement this season and has plenty left as a super tall late starter who has shown a willingness to put in the work.

Witts has the ability with another couple of years of development into him to become a no.1 ruckman for a team. He's not a high level tap ruckman despite his height - though on the improve. That real point of difference with Witts is his followup work, you'll never see a guy at his height give those same 2nd and 3rd efforts or tackle like he does as a strong, physical rugby convert. He has a hint of Mumford, just with more height to him.

He'll probably be a backup for Grundy next year as that first depth option with 2015 when Lynch probably retires that best opportunity to break through and become a regular even though he will certainly remain second to Grundy.

 

[Danair]

Hey KM, there is a story in the HUN tonight saying that GWS and us are looking to draft Rory Lobb, even possibly using a first round pick on him, seems risky, what do you think of him?

 

[PieBeast]

It's going to be difficult for Witts to find regular senior opportunities. Grundy is the clear no.1 ruckman already so it will limit Witts to that no.2 ruck role which isn't ideal for a 208cm ruckman even if he has proven that he can take some marks on the lead up forward.

Witts has shown strong improvement this season and has plenty left as a super tall late starter who has shown a willingness to put in the work.

Witts has the ability with another couple of years of development into him to become a no.1 ruckman for a team. He's not a high level tap ruckman despite his height - though on the improve. That real point of difference with Witts is his followup work, you'll never see a guy at his height give those same 2nd and 3rd efforts or tackle like he does as a strong, physical rugby convert. He has a hint of Mumford, just with more height to him.

He'll probably be a backup for Grundy next year as that first depth option with 2015 when Lynch probably retires that best opportunity to break through and become a regular even though he will certainly remain second to Grundy.

Nothing certain about that.

If Witts improves his core strength and comes on as expected you'll see him given a crack at number one ruck spot while Grundy assumes the L.Brown/Lynch's role.

 

[ash84]

Neither would upset me.

Seaby I like as a rookie rental who can provide some depth. I just see him as an unlikely target with Hudson looking set to hang around for another year. Had Hudson retired I would jump at Seaby as a rookie but with the club likely looking to pump more games into Witts and Hudson able to step up for a couple of games at a time I expect we pass.

Thorp in the third round is an option and one I'm open to. He's not a key forward answer but he's someone who is good enough to be a part of a successful forwardline and be a 2nd or 3rd option.
Assuming we stick with the forward combo of Cloke and Lynch, Thorp is someone who could play alongside them with both Lynch and Thorp players who push up the ground for their marks and get out of Cloke's way when they need to.

Would u see Thorp having more impact than Paine?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, there is a story in the HUN tonight saying that GWS and us are looking to draft Rory Lobb, even possibly using a first round pick on him, seems risky, what do you think of him?

He's doing some good things in the WAFL for essentially a first year ruckman.

I'd be very surprised to see him go first round, he's a reach that high with that top 20 a class above. But he could be that first picked slightly older recruit and could go as high as the 2nd round for a club looking for a ruckman. While he is a few years older he's still very much a project and someone you'll need to give time to so don't expect an immediate impact but if he can develop his body and continue to develop his game I think he has the opportunity to become an excellent ruckman a couple of years from now.
The basketballers with the right attitude to improving and with that kind of height is a very handy formula for success with their skills more than any other sport translatable.

GWS from pick 19/pick 20 or whatever it eventually becomes may be that first team to start considering him. A Richmond or Sydney could also depending on their view of him look at him later in the 2nd round. It will be interesting to see where he lands.

Nothing certain about that.

If Witts improves his core strength and comes on as expected you'll see him given a crack at number one ruck spot while Grundy assumes the L.Brown/Lynch's role.

I don't see that happening.

Grundy in my view looks set to develop into the second best ruckman in the competition as that next best young ruckman after Naitanui with T.Nicholls of Gold Coast that other young ruckman I also feel is big time.

1st year ruckmen don't just play like Grundy did by mistake. The guy had no preseason, didn't appear in the first half of the season and he was putting up the best numbers of any first year ruckman we've seen these past 15+ years. It's absolute madness that he's performing to this standard already and he's not only better than Witts already but has substantially greater upside considering not only his age but his basketball background, his late start to the game, zero preseason this year and his hunger to improve and become a dominant beast of a ruckman.

Like Witts, Grundy is effective at ground level, an effective followup ruckman, an effective tackler and a strong presence but he's also already an established and class tap ruckman not only getting first hand to it but directing it down to where the midfielders want it (Witts can't and may not ever be able to do this) while also finding more of the footy around the ground and winning more of his own footy inside the contest but then also having the composure to use it well by hand and foot. If and when he develops his ability forward of centre he'll be a star.

You play him as a ruckman because that's his game and that's who he is and by position he's already showing that he can take over the position and dominate games with his individual influence at AFL level.

Witts either needs to develop into an effective no.2 ruckman or accept a depth role if he can't develop his ability forward of centre and become Collingwood's equivalent of a Warnock as that depth ruckman or otherwise request a trade to another team with a no.1 ruck vacancy as while I do agree that that's his best position. He's not playing it with Grundy our clear franchise ruckman.

My projection of the two is Grundy becomes a top 2, maybe top 3 ruckman if some other freakshow comes along.

Witts I project as a best case scenario a top 10 ruckman but more likely a 10-20 ruckman in the competition once developed.

They're in a completely different class and it's evident by Grundy's already taking over from Jolly as no.1 ruckman while Witts is still developing his game and ironing out bits and pieces in the VFL.

Would u see Thorp having more impact than Paine?

It depends on the role you are looking at. As a pure marking key forward I feel Paine is clearly the better of the two. He has a presence and can take marks 1v1.

Thorp is more a complimentary tall forward who can exist as a part of the forwardline without needing to be "the man".

So they both offer something different to a relatively strong standard.

 

[PieBeast]

I'm not arguing who is the better talent of the two simply suggesting that if things go according to plan it will be remiss of Bucks not to experiment with the structure I'm proposing.

Surely Witts is a better prospect than just to be fighting for the second ruck spot for the rest of his career, not to mention Grundy will need rest during the year and might prove to be a formidable addition to the forward line.

Basically we need to utilise Witts properly to see what he's made of and add another string to Grundy's bow.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight...how do you rate this years 2nd round compared to previous...I get a feeling that post trade period the Lions will be stack with 2nd round picks for yet another "rebuild"

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not arguing who is the better talent of the two simply suggesting that if things go according to plan it will be remiss of Bucks not to experiment with the structure I'm proposing.

Surely Witts is a better prospect than just to be fighting for the second ruck spot for the rest of his career, not to mention Grundy will need rest during the year and might prove to be a formidable addition to the forward line.

Basically we need to utilise Witts properly to see what he's made of and add another string to Grundy's bow.

You'd want both to eventually become the combination and for both not only to develop their craft as ruckmen but also as forwards.

Grundy is clearly the more dominant ruckman so he probably still gets that no.1 role and plays the primary ruck minutes but a 60/40 split might be something that could be looked at.

Knight...how do you rate this years 2nd round compared to previous...I get a feeling that post trade period the Lions will be stack with 2nd round picks for yet another "rebuild"

Not a great year for 2nd rounders.

I'd go player for player trades.

If Polec wants to go to SA look at Kerridge.
If Karnezis wants to come to VIC a Melbourne who need more midfielders may look at him and offer a Jack Fitzpatrick.

It's more about getting those established talents back so that the team doesn't need to go into a full rebuild.

 

[Balony_pony16]

You'd want both to eventually become the combination and for both not only to develop their craft as ruckmen but also as forwards.

Grundy is clearly the more dominant ruckman so he probably still gets that no.1 role and plays the primary ruck minutes but a 60/40 split might be something that could be looked at.



Not a great year for 2nd rounders.

I'd go player for player trades.

If Polec wants to go to SA look at Kerridge.
If Karnezis wants to come to VIC a Melbourne who need more midfielders may look at him and offer a Jack Fitzpatrick.

It's more about getting those established talents back so that the team doesn't need to go into a full rebuild.

well that's sucks...prob is we only get players traded in that clubs don't want...ie raines and Martin types

 

[Knightmare]

well that's sucks...prob is we only get players traded in that clubs don't want...ie raines and Martin types

Just clever trading. Go the underutilised talents.

It takes clever research but they're out there.

 

[Punchy Demons]

Not a great year for 2nd rounders.

I'd go player for player trades.

If Polec wants to go to SA look at Kerridge.
If Karnezis wants to come to VIC a Melbourne who need more midfielders may look at him and offer a Jack Fitzpatrick.

It's more about getting those established talents back so that the team doesn't need to go into a full rebuild.

I can't see us trading Fitzy for a player that wouldnt be a walk up 22 starting mid.
I'll be mighty pi$$ed if we traded Fitzy for Karnezis

 

[Chris25]

well that's sucks...prob is we only get players traded in that clubs don't want...ie raines and Martin types

A good point. Unfortunately Brisbane doesn't have the over the top money to offer like the Suns did, or the homesickness card to play on the vast majority of available players.

Which is why I think Brisbane will be forced to rebuild through the draft, with some mature aged players on top - which wouldn't be the worst option, there will be some reasonably ready made options available in the second round. All the clever trading in the world can't convince a Victorian to move to Queensland, not a good young talent who would have other suitors. If Adelaide were to say we'll trade Kerridge for Polec, then Kerridge would just say 'hold on, trade me back to Victoria then'. Similarly, if Michie had the option of returning home or moving to an entirely new state then I think I know what he would choose.

 

[Balony_pony16]

If we end up with a heap of 2nd round picks like I suspect, what are the main mature age prospects around that mark. Thorp seems like a good risk (especially with heaps of 2nd rd picks potentially), thoughts on him and lions plus any others?

 

[Chris25]

If we end up with a heap of 2nd round picks like I suspect, what are the main mature age prospects around that mark. Thorp seems like a good risk (especially with heaps of 2nd rd picks potentially), thoughts on him and lions plus any others?

I'd hold off on the mature aged guys until later, but look at the likes of Tsitas, Jones and Battersby. Kids, but ones who could start early - even the likes of Hourigan, Robertson, Spina, Knight.

 

[Swansujelly]

if Darcy Gardiner is available for us we will take him, we don't need mids ATM. Geez I hope he is available!

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Any players born in 1991 worth a look in for this years draft?

 

[Prem87]

Knightmare - How do you rate Elliot Yeo? Apparently he's at WC next year. Would you consider him to be best 22 from round one next year? Strengths/Weaknesses? Is he a HB flanker or will he develop into a midfielder?

Thanks in advance! Prem87

 

[forwardflanker]

km I think your selling Witts a bit short. He's still a couple of years off being fully developed but when he is he'll be a monster. I think Witts ceiling is very high although there's a lot of risk attached to that however I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he ends up a top 5 in the comp ruck or better. I think the clubs long term plan should to keep both and develop a tandem ruck combo that will physically crush oppositions. Ruck is the hardest position in AFL imo and it will be demoralizing for clubs with weaker ruck stocks to have to compete for 100 minutes against two monsters. I hope it will be a 60:40 split as well but not just because Grundy is the better tap ruck, I think that if Witts fully develops as we want he'll be a more effective forward than Grundy who if he has a weakness in his game is he doesn't move that well around the ground imo. Grundy's tap work accuracy is really amazing though and if we can get Witts to even half that level and have them feeding a strong midfield than that makes a pretty solid basis for a very strong team imo.

 

[Knightmare]

If we end up with a heap of 2nd round picks like I suspect, what are the main mature age prospects around that mark. Thorp seems like a good risk (especially with heaps of 2nd rd picks potentially), thoughts on him and lions plus any others?

Thorp would probably in the 2nd round be a reach. 3rd round I'd consider.

Rory Lobb, Nathan Gordon,

Any players born in 1991 worth a look in for this years draft?

Dustin Martin if things fall through with Richmond would be the obvious answer.

Sean Tighe. Jason Tutt as a recycled player. Byron Sumner and Matthew Panos can also play. They'd have to be among the better 6-7 available of those born in 1991.

Knightmare - How do you rate Elliot Yeo? Apparently he's at WC next year. Would you consider him to be best 22 from round one next year? Strengths/Weaknesses? Is he a HB flanker or will he develop into a midfielder?

Thanks in advance! Prem87

Yeo is more a back flanker. He's got some pace and uses it pretty well by foot so he's a fit as a relatively tall type. He plays a relatively unaccountable game and is still a very thin build so 1v1 he can get exposed.

He has the opportunity to become a best 22 player and in the 1st round quite possibly with a strong preseason could feature but not assured.