Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Chris25]

Alright. Stop it now.

 

[thetradesman]

KM just wanted to know if you think Richmond could be interested in Dayle Gartlett?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Whats your thoughts on Byrne-Jones KM? don't think of this an over reaction to the combine results. vic metro are not really my strong suit because they are normally watched heavily enough anyway. i had him down as a good all round footballer and a good option late in the draft from the games i have seen him. on top of that he plays the role port will be looking for late so i have been keeping an eye on him more than most. The results from combine surprised me a bit which made me ask. from someone that watches more Victorian football whats his deficiencies? i thought he was playing pretty well in the TAC cup, doesn't seem to be getting much of a mentioning on BF compared to a couple other places..

 

[Chris25]

Nope. We're done, remember?

 

[Knightmare]

KM. I read your phantom draft again and read about a guy called Guy Dickson. He sounds like a top 10 pick. Where is his draft range and would Geelong pick him up with pick 52 or late? C2B

Guy Dickson I've enjoy watching. He and Matt Rennie for those who watched the TAC Cup grand final are absolutely incredible high leaping forwards. Dickson is just a touch more settled in front of goals.

On Dickson my writeup was mostly from last year when I watched a series of his games on the Carey Grammar APS footy team back when they had Jack Viney/Nathan Hrovat/Jackson Macrae/Kristian Jaksch/Matthew Haynes/Jason Ashby all in the same team. Dickson game after game continued to produce as that standout player with his play and as you can tell by my writeup caused significant excitement. Then naturally I had to add some notes on what he's done this year.

He's a possible rookie choice. No guarantee to get drafted and I doubt he goes in the national draft with such limited if any talk about him so he'll almost certainly be available in the rookie draft.

And if Kolodjashnij had the potential to be a better kicking version of Nat Fyfe then he would go very very early i would have thought

Kolodjashnij in no way resembles Fyfe on the field. Kolodjashnij has zero inside ability. His better footskills couldn't be of less relevance in any comparison between the two.

Hey Knightmare,

just a couple of questions:

1) Sydney have signed Perris as a rookie - and as such can apparently take him with their last rookie selection. Who do you see the Swans taking with pick #31 now?

2) What are your thoughts on the current F/A transfers (Franklin to SYD, Sylvia to FRE, Thomas to CAR, Betts to ADE, Mumford to GWS)? Will these change your draft order at all?

3) Have you heard any clubs interested in Dayle Garlett - apparently North are keen. If the Roos add Dal Santo, McDonald and Garlett, and learn from their narrow losses in 2013, I can see them being a very good side in 2014. Their list looks in good shape with all bases covered. Your thoughts?

4) With the loss of draft picks (and thus a reduced ability to trade) I can see the Bombers stagnating. Who do you think Essendon will trade and what will they get in return?

Cheers in advance

Just reading on the Sydney website now. So lucky to get Perris as a rookie! I'd willingly take him in the 2nd round but he'll go as that final rookie selection for Sydney which is the bargain of the draft at this point.

Franklin to Sydney will change that team dynamic. I feel it will take time to build that chemistry as it did with Tippett who Sydney overused last year but it can work once they figure out how and when to utilise them best.
If Sydney are smart Reid to move back would be in my view be big for Sydney. Franklin, Tippett and Pyke who can all go forward is plenty and with Reid not improving these past couple of seasons since he took that big contract I'd like to see the switch made. Reid is a poor set shot goalkicker and down back has all the attributes to be excellent as an athletic type with that leap and ability to read the drop of the ball and get to those best positions which gives him great intercept marking potential.
That ruck situation will be interesting and is a clear step back. Pyke I ideally like as more a no.2 ruckman with that ability to take contested marks forward of centre so losing Mumford will hurt from a ruck and midfield standpoint so how they address that ruck situation will be interesting. It's certainly not the strength it was so with that new team weakness they may not be as dominant as the addition of their new franchise face in Franklin suggests as probably a similar team to what we saw from Sydney these past couple of seasons - though perhaps a touch better with Hawthorn and Geelong both weakening.

Sylvia will be much better in a strong Fremantle team. Ross Lyon loves his mid-late career players but why he'll be a success is that Sylvia is a weapon of a player who doesn't need great numbers to do damage and on a good team will be made more effective with more meaningful ball in dangerous positions he'll be able to get.

Thomas is better off at Carlton. In the Collingwood midfield he wouldn't have received any minutes which frankly is the only region of the field he can play. Whereas Carlton are desperate for further midfielders and Malthouse knows how to put him in positions to succeed so if his ankles hold up he's capable of having a solid season for Carlton - just with his pace gone don't expect him to break the lines or provide that special maniac tackling pressure he provided in 2010/2011 that had him touted by some as the best player in the competition rightly or wrongly at the time by Ross Lyon.

Betts to Adelaide will be interesting. That Carlton front half is overloaded with smalls so something had to give. Hopefully he can integrate into that Adelaide front half and get back to his 2011 and 2012 form. As long as he's motivated he can succeed but it is an IF.

Mumford to GWS is a nice fit. A lot of contending teams would love to have him. But he's such a natural fit on that GWS team. Giles to me is a perfect no.2 ruckman as someone who is capable through the ruck but then also a big target up forward and Mumford is a ruckman your midfielders would love to play with. He's such a big body, follows up so well, tackles, bumps and just damages the opposition. But then can also go forward and take a mark. He's a good get and will help elevate that midfield with his good work if he can stay healthy.

Ben Brown seems to be testing extremely well for speed, agility and kicking, apart from anything else, especially for someone his size.

Ben Brown is a good one. Keep in mind he is those few years older so you'd hope that he is a touch more athletic but the potential is there for him to have success. He's worked on his game and at his height as an athletic type who can take a mark but then also do some nice work at ground level and convert from his set shot opportunities and there is plenty to like. He probably doesn't go in the national draft but as a rookie looking for a no.2 ruckman he'd be a strong choice.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Just on the ruck situation KM - could Sydney potentially reach and undercut GWS for Lobb at their first pick as that slightly more mature and mobile ruckman? I don't think they'd want to be using Pyke as the #1 ruckman and in my view Lobb is a little more likely to make an immediate impact than some others. Not sure they'd upgrade Naismith to play the #1 ruck role this year, and the only other options I see are Goodes and Tippett spending time there, which probably isn't ideal. Thoughts?

 

[Knightmare]

KM just wanted to know if you think Richmond could be interested in Dayle Gartlett?

Most likely not. Richmond have enough problem guys with Dustin Martin and Aaron Edwards. The team is on the rise. I wouldn't mess with a team on the improve.

Sydney and Essendon are more the situations I'd strongly consider Garlett. Perhaps Hawthorn. Beyond those clubs I wouldn't recommend taking the chance on him.

Whats your thoughts on Byrne-Jones KM? don't think of this an over reaction to the combine results. vic metro are not really my strong suit because they are normally watched heavily enough anyway. i had him down as a good all round footballer and a good option late in the draft from the games i have seen him. on top of that he plays the role port will be looking for late so i have been keeping an eye on him more than most. The results from combine surprised me a bit which made me ask. from someone that watches more Victorian football whats his deficiencies? i thought he was playing pretty well in the TAC cup, doesn't seem to be getting much of a mentioning on BF compared to a couple other places..

Byrne-Jones tested well but then so did Brad Harvey in 2010 who got drafted on the back of his draft combine performance without really doing it during the year.

In saying that Byrne-Jones has an ok game and will without question get considered as a selection and quite possibly in the national draft.

He's a smallish, light bodied midfielder. He just doesn't use that pace in game as you'd think he possibly could as more of a composed finesse rebound defender who uses it well but perhaps doesn't do major damage as a low penetration type who doesn't kick long or break the lines.

He's a boarderline selection. I don't feel particularly strongly about his game which usually suggests that they're not on your shortlist but the testing will make clubs look at him again.

 

[Knightmare]

Just on the ruck situation KM - could Sydney potentially reach and undercut GWS for Lobb at their first pick as that slightly more mature and mobile ruckman? I don't think they'd want to be using Pyke as the #1 ruckman and in my view Lobb is a little more likely to make an immediate impact than some others. Not sure they'd upgrade Naismith to play the #1 ruck role this year, and the only other options I see are Goodes and Tippett spending time there, which probably isn't ideal. Thoughts?

GWS may well skip on Lobb now that they have Mumford. They'll probably at least move him down a selection I'd predict.

Sydney may very well look at Lobb if he is available late in the 2nd round which is probably roughly where he goes anyway. If they do take him they'll just have to keep in mind he won't be an immediate player. He'll take a couple of years to become AFL relevant as a light body who hasn't played a whole lot of footy.

Naismith as a similar project will also require more time and as a team in win now mode with that Franklin addition they need better.

Sydney need a Darren Jolly back as a short term rental or just anything immediate. Perhaps Trent West is available and as someone who can split ruck minutes would be someone who could play 50/50 forward and ruck alongside Pyke. Options will be lean but they're the two I'd target in their situation with options limited.


As is at the moment Pyke would be that no.1 ruckman with Tippett to also spend some minutes through there. Goodes played some ruck earlier in his career but athletically and with the current ruck rules it's not so likely to work unless it's for a really unique look as almost an extra onballer for periods but even then at that back end of his career I see Sydney protecting Goodes rather than exposing him to the beating those ruckmen take every week. He's too old and too important for that.

 

[RedRockBerger]

Hey KM,
Just wondering your thoughts on the Lions pick 7 and who we'll go with. Another good ball user in the Sam Mayes mould in Ben Lennon or an inside mid such as Matt Crouch. And as a result of all these players leaving who do you think we should look at with those picks from roughly 17-30?

Cheers in advance

 

[maverick001]

Although he said he can kick better, he also said "much more outside". So you can't value him based on him being "better kicking version of Nat Fyfe".

Yes I realised this, I was just pointing out that it would appear that Kolodjashnij is not a better kicking version of Fyfe, because if he was he would likely be talked about as top 3 (for example) rather than 6-15 which he is currently viewed as. But no matter, we got there in the end.

BTW loving your work Knightmare

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,
Just wondering your thoughts on the Lions pick 7 and who we'll go with. Another good ball user in the Sam Mayes mould in Ben Lennon or an inside mid such as Matt Crouch. And as a result of all these players leaving who do you think we should look at with those picks from roughly 17-30?

Cheers in advance

I'd pick Matt Crouch as a genuinely impressive inside midfielder who will play strong footy from season one.
It's something very much missing on that Brisbane team.

Lennon, Kolodjashnij, L.Taylor, Sheed, McCarthy, Gardiner are others I wouldn't be shocked to hear Brisbane read out on draft day either.

It will be interesting to see which other picks Brisbane end up with.

A big - say Hourigan/Marsh could be considered with a selection as a forward.
Some mids will be needed - maybe a Spina/Cripps or a Dunstan/Dumont if one slides.
As well as someone more outside - Hartung or perhaps Willsmore depending on what Brisbane evaluate his best position to be.

In any case plenty of needs which require addressing so it's probably best to go best available at each selection inside the first two rounds and address any remaining needs later.

 

[maverick001]

Billy Hartung breaks the beep test and tested well in kicking. Knightmare do you think this will push him up the draft order a bit, so he is probably not accessible with West Coast's second pick now? Especially given there will be at least a couple compo picks thrown in for Buddy/Daisy, and there is talk Eagles will trade this pick for Yeo

 

[maverick001]

Billy Hartung breaks the beep test and tested well in kicking. Knightmare do you think this will push him up the draft order a bit, so he is probably not accessible with West Coast's second pick now? Especially given there will be at least a couple compo picks thrown in for Buddy/Daisy, and there is talk Eagles will trade this pick for Yeo

...or was this basically already factored in

 

[Knightmare]

Billy Hartung breaks the beep test and tested well in kicking. Knightmare do you think this will push him up the draft order a bit, so he is probably not accessible with West Coast's second pick now? Especially given there will be at least a couple compo picks thrown in for Buddy/Daisy, and there is talk Eagles will trade this pick for Yeo

We understood coming in that Hartung was a 16+ beep test so it shouldn't change his draft stocks.

Many rate him 10-20. I rate him a touch lower.

Most likely Hartung is not available to West Coast in the 2nd round.

It is expected that West Coast land Yeo. Perhaps that's for a player. More likely a pick. If it's a pick it will either be a 2nd/3rd round selection.

 

[Sydswans0512]

You can scrap Lloyd Perris from pick 31 who do you think the Swans will go with there?

 

[Greggy]

Hey KM, thanks for your work here mate, hours of interesting reading!
Do you have any info on Charlie Kelso? Is there any chance he'll get picked this year?

 

[HiiP3Rmau5]

Hey Km,
What are your chances on Brisbane picking up freeman with the possible 1st round pick from hawthorn in a longer trade

Also what are your thoughts on Braden Ferrari from the western jet and the likelihood of him being drafted next year

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

It is expected that West Coast land Yeo. Perhaps that's for a player. More likely a pick. If it's a pick it will either be a 2nd/3rd round selection.

Better be our 3rd. Sick of bending over to other clubs, it's our turn. A pick 30 who has performed what, slightly above expectations? Who wants to go home and is un contracted.

3rd round

 

[sven_inc]

As a Hawthorn supporter its good to hear Thorp's name in the mix to get re-drafted, do you have any idea how another ex-Hawk Travis Tuck is going?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

GWS may well skip on Lobb now that they have Mumford. They'll probably at least move him down a selection I'd predict.

Sydney may very well look at Lobb if he is available late in the 2nd round which is probably roughly where he goes anyway. If they do take him they'll just have to keep in mind he won't be an immediate player. He'll take a couple of years to become AFL relevant as a light body who hasn't played a whole lot of footy.

Naismith as a similar project will also require more time and as a team in win now mode with that Franklin addition they need better.

Sydney need a Darren Jolly back as a short term rental or just anything immediate. Perhaps Trent West is available and as someone who can split ruck minutes would be someone who could play 50/50 forward and ruck alongside Pyke. Options will be lean but they're the two I'd target in their situation with options limited.


As is at the moment Pyke would be that no.1 ruckman with Tippett to also spend some minutes through there. Goodes played some ruck earlier in his career but athletically and with the current ruck rules it's not so likely to work unless it's for a really unique look as almost an extra onballer for periods but even then at that back end of his career I see Sydney protecting Goodes rather than exposing him to the beating those ruckmen take every week. He's too old and too important for that.

Interesting. I see Lobb as one of the best placed ruckmen in the draft to make somewhat of an impact in his first year; he may not be huge through the body but he plays a very mobile game. Don't think he'll immediately play a big part in an AFL side but I think as a sort of relief ruckman he could play some games.

My issue with Sydney is basically what you've said above. Pyke isn't a number one ruckman as his value is mostly in a split between forward and ruck which favours forward time. Goodes and Tippett can both ruck but neither is ideal for the side. But with Buddy, Tippett, Goodes and Rohan in the forward line, where does a second ruckman fit? I agree that the most likely scenario is that Tippett shares the ruck duties, but do you see that as an ideal situation? He was recruited to give them potency close to goal, but if he's forced to ruck 30-40% of the time I see it as a bit of a waste.

 

[swansfan51]

Do you think any of the NSW academy players (Green, Hiscox, Gibbons, King etc) are draftable?

 

[strauchanie59]

Do you think any of the NSW academy players (Green, Hiscox, Gibbons, King etc) are draftable?

King is. 200cm KPF who plays in the ruck, they don't come around very often, will go in the first three rounds I think.

 

[swansfan51]

King is. 200cm KPF who plays in the ruck, they don't come around very often, will go in the first three rounds I think.

Will be interesting to see if GWS nominate him, the deadline is 2 hours away.

 

[strauchanie59]

Will be interesting to see if GWS nominate him, the deadline is 2 hours away.

Doesn't look like it. http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/2013-10-04/jake-barrett-to-join-giants

Slater & Gordon GIANTS Academy player Jake Barrett will be selected by the GIANTS in next month's 2013 NAB AFL Draft.

 

[Danair]

Interesting. I see Lobb as one of the best placed ruckmen in the draft to make somewhat of an impact in his first year; he may not be huge through the body but he plays a very mobile game. Don't think he'll immediately play a big part in an AFL side but I think as a sort of relief ruckman he could play some games.

My issue with Sydney is basically what you've said above. Pyke isn't a number one ruckman as his value is mostly in a split between forward and ruck which favours forward time. Goodes and Tippett can both ruck but neither is ideal for the side. But with Buddy, Tippett, Goodes and Rohan in the forward line, where does a second ruckman fit? I agree that the most likely scenario is that Tippett shares the ruck duties, but do you see that as an ideal situation? He was recruited to give them potency close to goal, but if he's forced to ruck 30-40% of the time I see it as a bit of a waste.

LRT will likely spend some time there as well, he was used there quite a bit in 2012 when Mumford was injured.