Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Just on Conway, It's worth noting he only ran 11 something in the beep test. As a midfielder that clearly is not good enough. There are 15 year old kids who could run that. But I hear the state testing in Queensland was all done in a 3 hour period or something. Mind you it is a lot hotter up there.

11 is horrible. I could do that this morning no problems at all, and I haven't been jogging much at all for the last few months, I barely do any intervals when I do jog, and I am not trying to impress recruiting staff. Dismal effort if that's true.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Yeah, I didn't mention the Dal and Delaney parts as I was just trying to show what we effectively got just in exchange for Mac (and picks 41 and 59), which was Longer, Savage, Bruce and upgrades on 24 to 19 and 25 to 18, which is a pretty amazing return, I reckon.

That would be AMAZING if it were true

McEvoy + P24 + P59
for
Savage + P18 + P19

Longer and Bruce have no connection to the McEvoy trade at all. You can't leave out the 'Dal and Delaney parts' as you wouldn't have P25..

P25 (Dal Santo) + P41
for
Longer + P48 (Bruce)

You could argue that Delaney was part of the Dal Santo deal, but offically at least it was again, a stand alone trade.

P77
for
Delaney.

Saints have done well in my opinion, no need to exaggerate it

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, will you be posting up an updated Mock Draft with news picks/movements? as there is a new draft order?

Probably today/tomorrow if I get the time I'll have the picks up to date.

 

[captainrich]

We certainly could have done with Ben's leadership, but thankfully Longer is also renowned for his leadership (including captaining Vic Metro) and for being "made of the right stuff" (as they put it after interviewing him on SEN yesterday).

HAHAHAHA you have to be having one, Billy made of the right stuff? renowned for leadership? do you just realised you picked up a sissy ruckman who was a top 10 pick and walked out on his club after 2 years due to homesickness? could not handle being in a new enviornment in a new state? hes going to do wonders for your leadership, the softness of st kilda will continue

 

[clipboardbinocs]

I think the fact that your player development program and football department are a basket case had a fair bit to do with the player exodus.

5 out the door doesn't just happen, as much as you may want to believe and fall for the Hanley hypothesis, you'd be kidding yourself.

 

[straightuplazy]

Hey Knightmare, was just wondering if there any chance that Jarman Impey could make it to our 4th round pick of 55? or is he likely to be pick up around 20 to 30 pick mark?

 

[aussierulesrules]

That would be AMAZING if it were true

McEvoy + P24 + P59
for
Savage + P18 + P19

Longer and Bruce have no connection to the McEvoy trade at all. You can't leave out the 'Dal and Delaney parts' as you wouldn't have P25..

P25 (Dal Santo) + P41
for
Longer + P48 (Bruce)

You could argue that Delaney was part of the Dal Santo deal, but offically at least it was again, a stand alone trade.

P77
for
Delaney.

Saints have done well in my opinion, no need to exaggerate it

It is true. Do the maths and you'll see I'm right.

We lost McEvoy (who plays ruck) and gained Longer (who plays ruck) and that's why I made the connection, to show what we got for McEvoy and what we gave up for Longer in comparison, given that they play the same position.

We gave up McEvoy (and pick 59) and gained Savage and pick 18 and an upgrade from 24 to 19. We had the pick for Dal (25) as a result of a different deal (letting him go through FA) and we then used that pick (along with pick 41) for Longer (who replaces Mac- hence saying that we upgraded pick 25 to pick 18- which was the pick we got for Mac- as opposed to simply saying we gained pick 18 on it's own, which I would have done if I had included the whole Dal trade, plus Delaney), while also gaining pick 48 (which we then used on Bruce).

Ergo, effectively:

OUT: McEvoy (and picks 41 and 59)
IN: Longer, Savage, Bruce, upgrade of 24 to 19 and upgrade of 25 to 18.

If you were to bring the Dal Santo deal into it, it would be

OUT: McEvoy, Dal Santo (and picks 41, 59 and 77, none of which we were likely to use)
IN: Longer, Savage, Bruce, 18 (on it's own- not simply an upgrade from 25 to 18), upgrade of 24 to 19 and Delaney.

There are two key differences there. In the first one I'm only saying that we effectively upgraded 25 to 18, whereas if you add the Dal trade into the mix it I'm saying we gained 18 on its own (not just upgraded it) and gained Delaney, while also losing the junk pick of 77.

I separated the Dal trade out of it to simply show what we effectively got for Mac (and the two picks that we were unlikely to use), with relation to Longer, who replaces him, not to show what we did overall. If I wanted to show what we did overall, I would have said what we did overall.

 

[BlueMaster1]

Reserved for 2014 power rankings

When will this be updated ???

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, was just wondering if there any chance that Jarman Impey could make it to our 4th round pick of 55? or is he likely to be pick up around 20 to 30 pick mark?

Impey probably goes earlier rather than later but it's a relatively open draft so a few will go later than expected. Whether Impey is one of them I'd say doubtful but you never know in such a deep draft class filled to the brim with smalls.

When will this be updated ???

When I stop getting requests to update my 2013 draft

I'm settled on a top 2 of Peter Wright and Patrick McCartin until someone else pops their head up next year but the rest I'll put some thought into for a first order later.

Many will ask why isn't Hugh Goddard in my top 2. If I was picking a year out he feels more like a mid first rounder even if he probably goes earlier on draft day. He just doesn't feel like he takes games by the throat in a similar way to what people would say watching Jack Watts.

Some other names to look out for (not ordered): Sam Durdin, Jesse Watchman, Alex Harnett, Clem Smith, Jarrod Pickett, Jake Lever, Alec Waterman (WCE - F/S), Tyler Keitel, Jackson Nelson, Dylan Winton, Christian Petracca, Touk Miller, Jordan Cunico, Peter Spurling, Joe Maishman, Mac Bower, Jack Donkersley, Billy Stretch (Melb - F/S), Darcy Moore (Coll - F/S), Lachie Weller, Liam Dawson, Jake Johnson, Jack Cripps, Sean McLaren, Matthew Hammelmann and Tom Lamb are some to watch as some who have made early impressions.

 

[aussierulesrules]

What's the deal with Peter Wright? Hadn't heard of him a couple of months ago and now he's being talked up as potentially going top 2 next year. 200cm, but plays a variety of positions, is that correct? What are his strengths?

 

[tenderwarrior]

It is true. Do the maths and you'll see I'm right.

It is your logic I am more confused about

 

[Knightmare]

What's the deal with Peter Wright? Hadn't heard of him a couple of months ago and now he's being talked up as potentially going top 2 next year. 200cm, but plays a variety of positions, is that correct? What are his strengths?

Wright has had his injury issues which is why we didn't see him till a little later.

He's a big boy.

This is my early draft profile for Wright to give you some feel for his game:


Peter Wright (Similar to Kurt Tippett): Wright is a super tall, strong marking key forward who can also play some ruck. He has the ability to take the big contested mark and win his 1v1s but he’s also excellent on the lead as one of those near impossible key forwards to defend. He’s also one of if not the best set shot kick you’ll ever find at his height with his conversion exceptional. Through the ruck he’s serviceable with his tap work relatively good but if you take him you take him because he’s a rare quality forward with rare height. The major concern with Wright is his back he’s had some bad back issues which have kept him out for a period but if that causes him no issues then he has the ability to be the best player in this draft. He’ll need to improve his core strength and build that flexibility to prevent further back issues so the earlier he can do that the better. He’ll also need to continue building his endurance.

 

[aussierulesrules]

It is your logic I am more concerned about.

Tell me then please which part of what I said doesn't add up, if aiming to work out how we effectively did with regards to McEvoy and Longer, who is effectively replacing him on our list? You said it would be "AMAZING if it were true" and it was, so I guess you agree that it was a pretty amazing result.

Anyone can show the total result of all our trades, as you did, but you can also break them down with simple maths if you want to, as I did. We wouldn't have gone after Longer if we hadn't traded Mac, so the two trades are connected for that reason and as such I wanted to see what else we effectively got on top of Longer, for letting Mac (and picks 41 and 59) go. And the answer was: Savage, Bruce and an upgrade of 24 to 19 and upgrade of 25 to 18.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Wright has had his injury issues which is why we didn't see him till a little later.

He's a big boy.

This is my early draft profile for Wright to give you some feel for his game:


Peter Wright (Similar to Kurt Tippett): Wright is a super tall, strong marking key forward who can also play some ruck. He has the ability to take the big contested mark and win his 1v1s but he’s also excellent on the lead as one of those near impossible key forwards to defend. He’s also one of if not the best set shot kick you’ll ever find at his height with his conversion exceptional. Through the ruck he’s serviceable with his tap work relatively good but if you take him you take him because he’s a rare quality forward with rare height. The major concern with Wright is his back he’s had some bad back issues which have kept him out for a period but if that causes him no issues then he has the ability to be the best player in this draft. He’ll need to improve his core strength and build that flexibility to prevent further back issues so the earlier he can do that the better. He’ll also need to continue building his endurance.

Thanks for that. Apart from the ruck and the bad back parts, it sounds a hell of a lot like Boyd that you're describing there (although Boyd is apparently serviceable in the ruck as well). So how would you compare Boyd and Wright, both overall and comparing their major strengths and weaknesses?

And what about McCartin v Jesse Hogan, especially McCartin of this year v Hogan of 2012?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for that. Apart from the ruck and the bad back parts, it sounds a hell of a lot like Boyd that you're describing there (although Boyd is apparently serviceable in the ruck as well). So how would you compare Boyd and Wright, both overall and comparing their major strengths and weaknesses?

And what about McCartin v Jesse Hogan, especially McCartin of this year v Hogan of 2012?

I favour Boyd and Hogan over Wright and McCartin.

I just like much of the rest of the 2014 draft more.

Wright has his back issues. McCartin has diabetes. So with those questions and being still a year out you'd take the talent you know better (Boyd/Hogan) who project as the better two at this point anyway.

This is my McCartin profile if you want a better feel for his game also:

Patrick McCartin (Similar to Alistair Lynch): McCartin is an interesting case. He’s an absolute top end talent but has his health issues which complicates the analysis of his playing ability. McCartin has diabetes so he’s done exceptionally well to manage that to this point and adjust his diet and practices to allow it not to affect his football. As a result of this McCartin has been especially careful with his diet and his body and has developed a great level of professionalism towards his football. As a footballer McCartin is a strong unit for his age. He’s already shown that he can take over games both through the TAC Cup but also through the u18 champs. McCartin is an effective mark on the lead but his real point of difference is his ability to take 1v1 marks. He has incredible strength and can go to the goal square and take advantage of his direct opponent with his superior ability to read the drop of the ball and his superior strength and ability to take a grab. The major weakness in McCartin’s game at this point is his set shot goalkicking. I’ve never seen a key forward who likes a goal less than McCartin. He shanks those set shots more than most and quickly loses confidence in his kick and more often than not elects to go the unselfish option and find team mates in better positions but on the positive his field kicking is good and his vision finding those inside 50 targets is as good as you’ll see from a player of his type.

 

[JasRulz63]

Some other names to look out for (not ordered): Sam Durdin, Jesse Watchman, Alex Harnett, Clem Smith, Jarrod Pickett, Jake Lever, Alec Waterman (WCE - F/S), Tyler Keitel, Jackson Nelson, Dylan Winton, Christian Petracca, Touk Miller, Jordan Cunico, Peter Spurling, Joe Maishman, Mac Bower, Jack Donkersley, Billy Stretch (Melb - F/S), Darcy Moore (Coll - F/S), Lachie Weller, Liam Dawson, Jake Johnson, Jack Cripps, Sean McLaren, Matthew Hammelmann and Tom Lamb are some to watch as some who have made early impressions.

Good to see two Brisbane academy players listed in there. At least there's no homesick problems with them! Hammelman especially has some really good size at around 196cm/84kg, and a key forward. Was decent in the championships from all reports. Dawson was the equal div 2 best player as a 17yo which is exciting.

There tends to be a problem with Queensland players developing in their draft year to really push for high draft picks. The Queensland team at U/16 level tends to go really well, but then drops off when you hit the U/18 level. We saw it again this year with some excitement around Conway and Tickner before the season started but didn't really come on this year as you would've liked (admittedly Tickner strugged with injury). Any thoughts why this might be the case? Would it have something to do with a lack of a professional junior competition like the TAC cup, as well as not being able to play in a top state league?

 

[Knightmare]

Good to see two Brisbane academy players listed in there. At least there's no homesick problems with them! Hammelman especially has some really good size at around 196cm/84kg, and a key forward. Was decent in the championships from all reports. Dawson was the equal div 2 best player as a 17yo which is exciting.

There tends to be a problem with Queensland players developing in their draft year to really push for high draft picks. The Queensland team at U/16 level tends to go really well, but then drops off when you hit the U/18 level. We saw it again this year with some excitement around Conway and Tickner before the season started but didn't really come on this year as you would've liked (admittedly Tickner strugged with injury). Any thoughts why this might be the case? Would it have something to do with a lack of a professional junior competition like the TAC cup, as well as not being able to play in a top state league?

Queensland as a state has shown that it can churn out some exceptional talent.

Dayne Beams is perhaps the most established.

Zac Smith, Charlie Dixon, Rory Thompson, Lachie Keeffe are some other recent examples of excellent talents to come out of Queensland.

From Queensland I tend particularly to enjoy some of the tall talent that comes out of the state.

One observation I have with the Queensland talent. It's those who have been listed onto AFL lists and given that time to develop who have really thrived as Dixon, Thompson and Keeffe have really shown this year. They just seem to take that little bit longer - and the same rule applies with the smalls and medium types.
Seeing Peter Yagmoor develop at Collingwood he had a shocking first season. Looked completely out of his depth at VFL level but then came back this year and looked really comfortable and a class above.
Adam Oxley took a bit longer to find his feet also and in the end got drafted a bit later and also looks better than he was.
Josh Thomas also though in his case more due to injuries he took all this time to establish himself as an AFL quality talent despite getting drafted back in 2009.

So it's not a state without talent and the ability to produce some serious footballers. It seems a development problem. Lack of serious competition in the state and lack of interest in the sport. And a lack of a serious development program is also holding Queensland back as a state.
Tickner and Conway have been very disappointing this year and I can't help but think the same could happen with Weller, Dawson and Hammelmann who might find their stocks all go from potential first rounders all the way down to later/rookie selections or maybe even undrafted despite the early hype.
If the Queensland trio do drop off next year and aren't spoken about as relatively top end selections then you and I both know why having seen it too many times before.

 

[JasRulz63]

It sounds like something bringing in the Academy system is somewhat trying to rectify, giving the players a professional development program to try and improve their stocks as potential draftees. It is still in it's infancy however, so I think there's still a lot of learning to be done about how to best go about it. It doesn't help that Brisbane fund the Academies by themselves, and we spend one of the least amounts on our Football Department as a club.

Interesting that you bring up the Gold Coast trio (Smith, Dixon and Thompson), because they all signed up for Gold Coast as 17yo and played for them in the TAC Cup in 2009. Josh Thomas played for GC in the TAC Cup too. So as well as working under a more professional set-up than normal at Gold Coast during the year before the draft, all four were also able to participate at the premiere junior competition as well.

I think this is the kind of thing the Academy system is trying to achieve in Queensland (and NSW), but it's definitely a work in progress.

 

[captain blood 17]

I like both Crouch and Sheed a lot this year. Sheed has more class but Crouch I do like a touch more with his inside game the best in this draft with that ability to win his own ball and tackle better than anyone else. Crouch would be my pick but Sheed I still really like and feel is another very strong choice.

With those first round selections it's always to me anyway going to be a best available selection regardless of need.

These two smack of the type of footballer the Tigers go for now.

 

[jono18]

Hi Knightmare,

Who are the 3 best Ruckman in this year crop of players and which pick range do you rate them at.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

Who are the 3 best Ruckman in this year crop of players and which pick range do you rate them at.

Rory Lobb, Darcy Cameron and Toby Nankervis.

All from the second round will come into calculations as considerations.

It depends entirely on demand for a young ruckman but any of them could slide to later in the draft or into the rookie draft.

 

[jono18]

C

Rory Lobb, Darcy Cameron and Toby Nankervis.

All from the second round will come into calculations as considerations.

It depends entirely on demand for a young ruckman but any of them could slide to later in the draft or into the rookie draft.

Cheers Bud

 

[Andy_Mac]

Knightmare, Billy Stretch. What are your thoughts and where do you see him going at this early stage?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, Billy Stretch. What are your thoughts and where do you see him going at this early stage?

Has exceptionally explosive pace. Can hit the scoreboard. He has some weapons at his disposal and to this point is well performed so signs are positive.

He could be worth taking in the 2nd round with that F/S choice if he continues his improvement next year.

 

[captainrich]

I think the fact that your player development program and football department are a basket case had a fair bit to do with the player exodus.

5 out the door doesn't just happen, as much as you may want to believe and fall for the Hanley hypothesis, you'd be kidding yourself.

its all well and good speaking from perth but i doubt you have any sort of idea what our player development and football programs are like, developed players like rockliff hanley leunberger over the years, we just drafted the wrong kids with no ticker, get informed and educated first before saying the usual predictable stuff you hear on the media