Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[David Spencer]

Hey nottenthagain I have been at Knightmare regarding Beasley to Swans, finally someone sees some value for us -

see mad monday wrap when he played on Petracca early in March 2014

Hugh Beasley (Oakleigh Chargers)

Played at stages on Petracca, and thought he played quite well. Used his body well in 1v1 occasions, and had the speed to stay on him during a lead.

Hopefully Sydney bound, given another good performance during the year on what maybe a number 1 draft pick - Rookie?.
Go Swannies.

 

[Periphery]

Hi KM, great work as always.

I'm just wondering why you have the Saints taking Garlett at 22 and not Reece McKenzie? They both fill a need (speed or key forward) but big key forwards are harder to find I struggle to see us passing on McKenzie if we rate him nearly as highly as you do. Petracca, Duggan and McKenzie would be an amazing haul.

I've also never heard of Rose, but I'm not sure we would be after another medium tall with that pick since we already have a couple and just picked up Membrey. What is his speed and kicking like and could he play in the middle? As I'm sure you are aware, the Saints have stated that we are looking for players with speed and/or good kicking so I'd guess the player at pick 41 will have to tick one of those boxes (unless it's a key defender).

Thanks in advance!

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, You have done a power of work. Brilliant job.

Corrections for you: the Hawks will only select 2 players at 31 and 49 in the Draft after elevating Webster and Willsmore from the Rookie list. This may change your phantom draft.

Info on the elevated players: If I recall correctly Webster had one best on ground for Box Hill and a few times in the best 6 but had injury issues. I don't remember Willsmore being in the top 6 in any game.

Aside: your chosen photo creeps me out.

I have designed the draft to this point to be four rounds in length, ignoring rookie upgrades to this point. But in future updates I may make that change.

How much of a gap do you see between the top 3 mids KM? Seems to be hugely varying opinions on the next cluster (Laverde/Weller/Ahern/blakely etc), but do you think Petracca/Brayshaw/Heeney could all be as good as each other, or do they have a clear cut order to you?

Blakely I don't have all that far behind the top 3. A few of the others, perhaps a Laverde, De Goey or Langford if he can develop an inside game could enter that conversation.

They're only 18 year olds so it is not out of the question that those top 3 can be passed by, just as we see every year, it's not always those very top selections who end up the very best overall. Just Petracca, Brayshaw and Heeney are safe and will at least I imagine be among those better mids and better players all things said and done from this draft.

Bless you Knightmare - Oscar McDonald to the Swans!

My personal opinion is he'll go earlier but what a deal that would be for the Swans, we get one live pick and it's exactly the type and quality we're after. The Swans are talking about only one live pick (not confirmed yet) but if Beasley was available at our second live pick (58) I'd hope we would reconsider a potential rookie upgrade and take him instead - I really think this guy could be something.... In fact, if McDonald isn't available I'd probably take Beasley at 37

Beasley is interesting. His height works against him but he can play. I'd be surprised to see Sydney use 37 on him, but stranger things have happened.

One more question KM, do you think it could be possible that we go with a mid like Weller with our first pick and a KPD like Ramsay or McDonald with our second, instead of the other way round?

It's possible Adelaide go for a mid or outside type but with Rutten retired it makes more sense that Adelaide go for the best key defender there.

Appreciate the effort as always Knightmare. This is yet again an unbelievable effort and you deserve a huge amount of credit for the work you put into your profiles year after year.

Having said that I can't help but feel that you've completely missed the mark with regards to Carlton's needs this time around. I would be absolutely stunned if we use 3 of our 4 live selections on players who project as key position players.

We've recently brought two taller players to the club through the trade period in Jaksch and Jones, and our recruiters are on record as stipulating exactly what they're looking for through the draft so to deviate so far from that is very unrealistic.

We may pick a taller player at some stage but expect most of our picks to be used on players who can add to our midfield rotation rather than the book ends of the ground.

Later picks are always far more up in the air so I won't put forth any names for those selections as anything can happen, but for our first pick in particular I think we can expect a smaller player to be selected.

Keeping in mind I've hardly seen anything of most of the names being put forward but given your orders of who may or may not be available I think it is significantly more likely that one of Blakely, Duggan, Garlett or Menadue would be heading to Visy Park.

I note you have Blakely listed in the "best few on list quality" and Lamb listed in the "best of the rest" category. To therefore put forth that Carlton would flip them around - presumably because you're going on the tiresome belief that Carlton is desperate for key position players - seems a little odd to me.

Lamb is less a key position player as much as he is a tall utility. He could be used forward/back or even as an outside runner with his running elite. He has been fairly heavily linked to Carlton so don't sleep on that.

Carlton may not pick so many key forwards late but that's more me just fitting guys into their appropriate draft ranges to get some names out there of some other guys who are in the mix to be selected.

 

[dewah07]

KM

Going off the bigfooty phantom saints have netted
1 Petracca
21 Duggan
22 Langford

Do I even need to ask for a rating out of 10 so far do I just assume it's a 10/10

 

[IQ3]

Laverde to pies pleaseee

 

[eaglespremiers]

KM

Going off the bigfooty phantom saints have netted
1 Petracca
21 Duggan
22 Langford

Do I even need to ask for a rating out of 10 so far do I just assume it's a 10/10

Isn't that something that is decided retrospectively?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, I notice in your latest rankings a giant leap for my favourite Blakely and Reece McKenzie from the 20s into the top bracket. What happened to rearrange the order?
Also what happened to Wright falling so far?
Is it just a by-product of you elevating McKenzie or is there more to it.
How late do you think you could get McKenzie? 23 for example?

Just reviewing their games.

I stacked up Blakely v the other mids and he came out favourably the more closely I assessed his game. He may even I'd argue be the most accomplished midfielder in this draft. Comparing Blakely to those others expected to go earlier or in a similar range Blakely simply has the more established midfield game, the better production and for the midfield the better mix of traits and ticked the most boxes leaving me with no questions about his ability on the ball.

McKenzie similarly I stacked up his game v McCartin and Wright. With McCartin something just doesn't feel right and I can't help but think his diabetes will affect his footy, additionally his listing of 194cm is not right and he's more like 190cm. Then with Wright I just didn't like his lack of 1v1 marking ability, he just drops his marks v any contact and as a super tall without such a great ground level game it's hard to see what he will do to dominate.
With McKenzie I just see no such difficulties. He isn't great at ground level and not agile but he just dominates - contested marking, 1v1 marking, in the air, powerful on the lead. He's just too big, too athletic and too strong overhead to not become a star at the next level. He's not Tom Hawkins who dominates because of his size, McKenzie can do that but he has the ability in the air and on the lead to dominate opposition defenders. I just have less questions about Reece and there are more things that make me think that he'll be the more dominant forward of the group of available talls.

Wright/McCartin have dropped from where I had them earlier in the year but I've only since my last update moved McKenzie above these guys and Blakely into that top group conversation on quality.

Reece McKenzie could go as late as the 3rd round (perhaps pick 50 to give you a number). He isn't the sure 20-30 pick as my liking for his game has him on here, but his range is 20-50 and really open until some concrete rumours come in linking a club heavily to him.

Hi KM, apologies if you've answered this question previously, I've not read through your previous threads.

Caleb Daniel. From you're write up, he's got incredible ball skills. I seem to remember hearing/reading similar about Prestia before he was drafted, but Dion was still picked up at 9. Are the differences between them mainly height and speed, as to why Caleb would be more likely to be drafted towards the end of the draft?

Caleb Daniel is very different to Prestia. Prestia was a real power player and inside monster. Daniel is more outside, he can go inside but at 167cm and with a lighter frame he is more an endurance athlete with precision footskills with Prestia more a raging bull who wins it and penetrates with his pace and relatively penetrating kick.

Still really like Caleb though. More a rookie pick if he goes at all but anyone who can have a disposal efficiency of 90% from 60 disposals in 3 games and perform well at SANFL League level, I can't discount him as a serious prospect.

I would be happy if collingwood drafted these players, but with pick 30 if Maynard is available id take him if not id go Wigg before Vickers-Willis, wouldnt argue with any of them.
What is your opinion on Wigg?

Wigg is productive and an efficient ball user but I don't like my short back flankers/wingmen who aren't super damaging. He just isn't high hurt factor enough for my liking. But he should go somewhere probably mid-late draft on draft day.

Hi KM, great work as always.

I'm just wondering why you have the Saints taking Garlett at 22 and not Reece McKenzie? They both fill a need (speed or key forward) but big key forwards are harder to find I struggle to see us passing on McKenzie if we rate him nearly as highly as you do. Petracca, Duggan and McKenzie would be an amazing haul.

I've also never heard of Rose, but I'm not sure we would be after another medium tall with that pick since we already have a couple and just picked up Membrey. What is his speed and kicking like and could he play in the middle? As I'm sure you are aware, the Saints have stated that we are looking for players with speed and/or good kicking so I'd guess the player at pick 41 will have to tick one of those boxes (unless it's a key defender).

Thanks in advance!

Reece McKenzie is basically considered unlikely to go before Garlett. Garlett I could even go as high as pick 11. McKenzie may go as low as pick 50. I want to be fairly representative with where guys will actually go rather than where I would take them.

Rose as far as I am aware has not played through the midfield, or he hasn't in any of the games I have seen him, but it is something I am interested to see if it does happen.

KM

Going off the bigfooty phantom saints have netted
1 Petracca
21 Duggan
22 Langford

Do I even need to ask for a rating out of 10 so far do I just assume it's a 10/10

It's capitalisation on value. Anywhere late teens/early 20s in my book is a terrific place to be picking this year. Hardly worse than a top 10 pick this year. And I'd comment good talents well identified at that stage.

 

[The German Hunter]

G'day KM, hawks have 4 rookie picks, could you see Jesse stringer thrown a lifeline? He showed some serious potential in 2012 and just seemed to disappear after that?

 

[Knightmare]

G'day KM, hawks have 4 rookie picks, could you see Jesse stringer thrown a lifeline? He showed some serious potential in 2012 and just seemed to disappear after that?

Hawthorn took Simpkin the other year so it's not out of the question. Hawthorn are in win now mode and with many of the veterans nearing the end that type of move is certainly something I sure will at least be discussed if not pursued if Hawthorn like his talent.

 

[SumTingWong]

KM
You have the Tiges taking Miller at 33 which I'm quite happy with but I like Bampton here as a big bodied inside mid. How would you compare the two?

 

[Knightmare]

KM
You have the Tiges taking Miller at 33 which I'm quite happy with but I like Bampton here as a big bodied inside mid. How would you compare the two?

I prefer Bampton. He has played and played very well at SANFL League level. He's the more productive player. He just hasn't had that exposure not playing nationals which may see him slide further than he deserves.

But Miller is good in his own right and is mostly preferred by recruiters and probably goes the higher of the two and is rated particularly highly as a leader captaining Vic Metro. He is on the improve so he's an interesting prospect in his own right with his real strength and power over the ball.

 

[captain cotch 9]

Any chance Ben Cavvara will get picked up?
Unlucky last year IMO

 

[Smoocher]

Not at this stage.

Can tell you that Reece McKenzie has had at least 2 interviews with North going back 3 weeks. He confirms they have shown most interest in him.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Can tell you that Reece McKenzie has had at least 2 interviews with North going back 3 weeks. He confirms they have shown most interest in him.

First round interest?

 

[Smoocher]

First round interest?

2nd round.
If still there at 25.

 

[Knightmare]

Any chance Ben Cavvara will get picked up?
Unlucky last year IMO

Unlikely this year also. Not even aware that he was invited to the state screenings.

There are always so many excellent smalls that it is consistently challenging for those smalls to get noticed and get onto the shortlists of clubs.

Can tell you that Reece McKenzie has had at least 2 interviews with North going back 3 weeks. He confirms they have shown most interest in him.

North have a few picks there (16, 25, 36) so there is quite a range there but a few have been saying North Melbourne may be an eventual destination.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

2nd round.
If still there at 25.

I hope we snatch him from you.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Hey KM I noticed that you don't have Daniel Capiron in your power rankings. I was just wondering what your knock on him was?

I'd be pleased if the Cats picked him up with one of our later selections considering our ageing backline. I think we need to be drafting at least one small or medium defender at some stage.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM I noticed that you don't have Daniel Capiron in your power rankings. I was just wondering what your knock on him was?

I'd be pleased if the Cats picked him up with one of our later selections considering our ageing backline. I think we need to be drafting at least one small or medium defender at some stage.

Capiron's production just hasn't been as I've expected. Good kick and can if given the time and space do some real damage but he just if he plays on a wing or even a back flank needs to get his hands on it more for my liking.

He's still rated highly by some and still a genuine mid draft chance though.

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Knightmare, you have not done too badly with our 3 other picks, but there is no way Adelaide will take Maynard at 35. The last thing we need is another inside mid. This draft will be about key pozzies and outside run for the Crows. I'm predicting we'll draft 2 key defenders, 1 key forward, and an outside runner.

 

[RGpies]

De Goey just seems a little underwhelming at pick 5, I must say I do not know much about him so I am judging from external point of view, just due to most having him ranked outside their top 10 throughout the year. I know you have others you would take at pick 5 over him, but would you be disappointed with De Goey at pick 5 or could you live with it? Do you see him becoming a very good player in this draft? Was he highly rated last year as an underager? Sorry for all the questions!

 

[Mullayo]

Just reviewing their games.
I stacked up Blakely v the other mids and he came out favourably the more closely I assessed his game. He may even I'd argue be the most accomplished midfielder in this draft. Comparing Blakely to those others expected to go earlier or in a similar range Blakely simply has the more established midfield game, the better production and for the midfield the better mix of traits and ticked the most boxes leaving me with no questions about his ability on the ball.

McKenzie similarly I stacked up his game v McCartin and Wright. With McCartin something just doesn't feel right and I can't help but think his diabetes will affect his footy, additionally his listing of 194cm is not right and he's more like 190cm. Then with Wright I just didn't like his lack of 1v1 marking ability, he just drops his marks v any contact and as a super tall without such a great ground level game it's hard to see what he will do to dominate.
With McKenzie I just see no such difficulties. He isn't great at ground level and not agile but he just dominates - contested marking, 1v1 marking, in the air, powerful on the lead. He's just too big, too athletic and too strong overhead to not become a star at the next level. He's not Tom Hawkins who dominates because of his size, McKenzie can do that but he has the ability in the air and on the lead to dominate opposition defenders. I just have less questions about Reece and there are more things that make me think that he'll be the more dominant forward of the group of available talls.

Wright/McCartin have dropped from where I had them earlier in the year but I've only since my last update moved McKenzie above these guys and Blakely into that top group conversation on quality.

Reece McKenzie could go as late as the 3rd round (perhaps pick 50 to give you a number). He isn't the sure 20-30 pick as my liking for his game has him on here, but his range is 20-50 and really open until some concrete rumours come in linking a club heavily to him.

Cheers KM,
I agree with you about both players. Always loved Blakely he makes time stand still like all great players, but because you upgraded McKenzie I checked out his highlights. He was one of the few I hadn't but I was glad I did.
Wow is the word. He's a one trick pony but what a trick, it's a game winner. He's a beast. You compare him to Cloke and he's already as big but quicker straight line and can jump higher. He's good for 5 goals a game if he can kick straight. I can't believe he'll be available as late as you guesstimate at 50. He's top 5 for me.

 

[Karma Train]

Hi KM - just had a quick question for you. I am hearing rumours that Carlton are keen on Blaine Boekhorst | Swan Districts. Have you seen him play and can you give me your thoughts on him?

 

[Knightmare]

De Goey just seems a little underwhelming at pick 5, I must say I do not know much about him so I am judging from external point of view, just due to most having him ranked outside their top 10 throughout the year. I know you have others you would take at pick 5 over him, but would you be disappointed with De Goey at pick 5 or could you live with it? Do you see him becoming a very good player in this draft? Was he highly rated last year as an underager? Sorry for all the questions!

I'm underwhelmed by all the early draft picks this year so I don't blame you for feeling that way about De Goey.

I'm not expecting De Goey to become an All Australian, but he can become a best 22 player and a top 15 list player for a club would be my estimation of his talents, with top 10 on list possible with strong development.

Cheers KM,
I agree with you about both players. Always loved Blakely he makes time stand still like all great players, but because you upgraded McKenzie I checked out his highlights. He was one of the few I hadn't but I was glad I did.
Wow is the word. He's a one trick pony but what a trick, it's a game winner. He's a beast. You compare him to Cloke and he's already as big but quicker straight line and can jump higher. He's good for 5 goals a game if he can kick straight. I can't believe he'll be available as late as you guesstimate at 50. He's top 5 for me.

More likely it's sounding like R.McKenzie goes around pick 25 but it's not out of the question that he goes later. He certainly doesn't seem likely to go much if any earlier than pick 25. But I like his talent.

Hi KM - just had a quick question for you. I am hearing rumours that Carlton are keen on Blaine Boekhorst | Swan Districts. Have you seen him play and can you give me your thoughts on him?

I have watched a bit of him having watched some WAFL League footy this year. He has a thin build, he'd be 21 now, but very quick and can take on the game really well. In the later portion of the draft or rookie draft I can see why he would be in the frame as a consideration.

 

[Mullayo]

More likely it's sounding like R.McKenzie goes around pick 25 but it's not out of the question that he goes later. He certainly doesn't seem likely to go much if any earlier than pick 25. But I like his talent.

Cheers KM,
GWS have 23. If I was GM I'd be pulling the trigger.