Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[redandblack]

Just to 'clarify' - he was good but not dominant like his stats sheet suggests. He had a good day (relative to his previous performances) but still lacked a bit of intensity and definitely lacked some mongrel. His ability to neutralise or win most aerial contests and float back and help defence was good as was his follow ups from the ruck. Disposed of it well. Was a good game but didn't dominate by any means IMO. Worth remembering that this is under 18s too. Durdin would be one of the oldest players there, often playing against 15 through 17 year olds. You'd want him to really impose himself at that level as a top draft prospect. He was good though.

Haysman and Snelling two more from Wests I think are okay shots for next year.

Thanks Skippos, much appreciated. I've thought all year that Sam's form has been affected by his thumb surgery and thst he's taken time to get his confidence back.

Snelling and Haysman are very promising, but I wonder about their size for AFL?

How did you see Turner and Watchman as draft or rookie chances?

 

[Pendle Berries]

KM

Apologies if this has been asked already but who do you think will nominate Darcy Moore ahead of the Pies and what are the chances of him slipping to the pies in the 2nd round as F/S.

Love your work

 

[Knightmare]

Lever going at Pick 3 seems a Big Reach with him not playing all year

Lever's past performance has been so strong that it's not such a stretch. That and with his reported work ethic and leadership qualities and he would for a GWS or even Melbourne at 3 by a very plausible fit. It's pretty handy captaining Vic Metro as an underager. That tells me something pretty clear about the quality of person he is.

With Darcy Moore, there would seem to be a little problem.

At Collingwood, we know that top draft picks since 2010 (Jackson Paine excluded) have gotten the No. 35 and at the end of this year, we'd have No's. 30 and 35 vacated as Scharenberg will move to a different number.

Could Collingwood take Darcy Moore as their first pick on the proviso that he wears his father's old number and their 2nd pick wears No. 35?

It's a real micro decision that is relatively unimportant but easy to resolve.

My solution would be to keep 30 vacant for another year and let Moore make the transition from 35 in his first year to 30 in his second year. Keeps the tradition going and he has the opportunity to get 30 in his second year if he wants it.

KM, Paige's recent update has Wright falling to pick 5, then Menadue at pick 25 for the dogs. What are the chances of this happening because I dared to dream for a moment then remembered that I barrack for the dogs.

Both plausible selections and that would be the draft going right into the Dogs hands.

On Wright one observation I've taken away from his last few games is that he as a mark has really clean hands and takes his marks cleanly, but not strong hands in the sense that if he gets hit or receives any contact he is more than likely dropping it - big and strong as he is. So I do see him at least going in that 3-5 range with pick 5 increasingly likely.

Menadue's draft position is still very much open to interpretation. I'd personally be inclined to take late first round. Others might have him going second or third round. Someone else may have him in their top 10. In any case he is a special talent and with a really open draft range he is someone where anything is possible.

KM

Apologies if this has been asked already but who do you think will nominate Darcy Moore ahead of the Pies and what are the chances of him slipping to the pies in the 2nd round as F/S.

Love your work

90/10 Pies have to take him first round.

Petracca and McCartin in some order will go 1/2. That next group in some order to be decided will likely contain Lever, Durdin, Brayshaw, Wright and Moore. It's really that top 7 (8 if you count Heeney as a Sydney academy player) who make up that top group. For anyone else to break into that group and be seen as more desirable than Moore a club would really need to be high on - Laverde, Weller, Duggan, Pickett or Marchbank as some examples which is what would need to happen for Moore to be seen as a second rounder.

 

[TradeDraft]

Lever's past performance has been so strong that it's not such a stretch. That and with his reported work ethic and leadership qualities and he would for a GWS or even Melbourne at 3 by a very plausible fit. It's pretty handy captaining Vic Metro as an underager. That tells me something pretty clear about the quality of person he is.

Yes he did have a Great Underage year but being Injured all year would have to have some Question Marks about him

 

[blueiris]

Do you believe all this talk about McCartain dropping down the draft to pick 4

 

[Knightmare]

Yes he did have a Great Underage year but being Injured all year would have to have some Question Marks about him

Some pretty good players have missed time during their underage year and gone on any become terrific. Chris Judd and Joel Selwood are among the popular examples of this.

The expectation with Lever is he should be right to go next year so I don't see clubs being all that put off.

Do you believe all this talk about McCartain dropping down the draft to pick 4

It's plausible if Saints take Petracca. But if Melbourne receive pick 3 as compensation for losing Frawley as a free agent then it's hard to see McCartin lasting to Brisbane at pick 5.

 

[TradeDraft]

Some pretty good players have missed time during their underage year and gone on any become terrific. Chris Judd and Joel Selwood are among the popular examples of this.

The expectation with Lever is he should be right to go next year so I don't see clubs being all that put off.

Well he is that Interesting Prospect. On what people say if he played he could of been the Number 1 pick but where does ho go with no Footy in his Draft Year

 

[Masked Magician]

Ive said it time and time again, I will be extremely disappointed if Collingwood have to use #8 on moore

 

[iBeng]

Ive said it time and time again, I will be extremely disappointed if Collingwood have to use #8 on moore

Why?

 

[Knightmare]

Why?

It's a sentiment I hear constantly when I go to games from other Pies fans.

Moore is a guy who shows glimpses and has a nice mix of attributes but his production has in the most part been mild at best.

I'd still pick him at 8 because I'm confident he will develop but he is a guy you pick hoping he develops because he is at this point not among the most productive - in large part it relates to playing most of the season as a key defender and when back he plays very much a negating style but even as a forward his numbers don't jump off the page with McCartin and McKenzie much higher production key forwards with Wright and Durdin also relatively better performed and with Lever another tall who as an underager performed more strongly. As key defenders Marchbank, O.McDonald and Goddard when played in the back half have also performed more strongly.

So I understand the discussion. I just don't completely agree with the conclusion with Moore's mix of traits suggesting as a key forward that he'll with time develop.

With F/S selections and the same is the case with the academy selections working the same way. The value the club get with their picks - with Ayce Cordy the only exception we've seen is exceedingly strong, even with the current rules. It's only something people don't complain about because F/S selections who are worth picking don't come around all that often.

Moore will if picked at 8 be taken largely in what would have been his draft range as someone who wouldn't have gone earlier than pick 5/6. Whereas at other times you might at a pick in mid 20s get a top 10 quality prospect thanks to the F/S bidding system or the best guy at pick 18 if you're a winning team. So there is that element of disappointment if Moore goes at 8 of not getting that typical F/S value we most typically see.

 

[iBeng]

It's a sentiment I hear constantly when I go to games from other Pies fans.

Moore is a guy who shows glimpses and has a nice mix of attributes but his production has in the most part been mild at best.

I'd still pick him at 8 because I'm confident he will develop but he is a guy you pick hoping he develops because he is at this point not among the most productive - in large part it relates to playing most of the season as a key defender and when back he plays very much a negating style but even as a forward his numbers don't jump off the page with McCartin and McKenzie much higher production key forwards with Wright and Durdin also relatively better performed and with Lever another tall who as an underager performed more strongly. As key defenders Marchbank, O.McDonald and Goddard when played in the back half have also performed more strongly.

So I understand the discussion. I just don't completely agree with the conclusion with Moore's mix of traits suggesting as a key forward that he'll with time develop.

With F/S selections and the same is the case with the academy selections working the same way. The value the club get with their picks - with Ayce Cordy the only exception we've seen is exceedingly strong, even with the current rules. It's only something people don't complain about because F/S selections who are worth picking don't come around all that often.

Moore will if picked at 8 be taken largely in what would have been his draft range as someone who wouldn't have gone earlier than pick 5/6. Whereas at other times you might at a pick in mid 20s get a top 10 quality prospect thanks to the F/S bidding system or the best guy at pick 18 if you're a winning team. So there is that element of disappointment if Moore goes at 8 of not getting that typical F/S value we most typically see.

How would you compare him to Jonathan Freeman? He was an academy pick for us last year, one that Adelaide put a bid in for which we matched with our second. We expressed our confidence that he could make it as a good Key Forward for us and other clubs also saw that.

Is it the same for Moore? He has had quite a bit of hype, either produced by fans or scouts, and has attracted attention from other clubs as well who would likely seperate with a pick higher than 8 for him if given the chance. Of course, if they did and Collingwood didnt match it I wouldnt suspect he'd hang around long at say Melbourne or Brisbane if either of them got him.

At the end of the day I think Collingwood wont part with pick 8, but if hes tearing the competition apart in 3-4 years time a few retrospective questions will be raised, mostly at Eddie, regarding his rabid dislike of the Academies.

 

[markm106]

Hi KM
So if Melbourne receive pick 3 for Frawley and trade it as Roos has hinted is there any chance We take Brayshaw at 2? Seems like the kind of player Roos wants.

 

[Knightmare]

How would you compare him to Jonathan Freeman? He was an academy pick for us last year, one that Adelaide put a bid in for which we matched with our second. We expressed our confidence that he could make it as a good Key Forward for us and other clubs also saw that.

Is it the same for Moore? He has had quite a bit of hype, either produced by fans or scouts, and has attracted attention from other clubs as well who would likely seperate with a pick higher than 8 for him if given the chance. Of course, if they did and Collingwood didnt match it I wouldnt suspect he'd hang around long at say Melbourne or Brisbane if either of them got him.

At the end of the day I think Collingwood wont part with pick 8, but if hes tearing the competition apart in 3-4 years time a few retrospective questions will be raised, mostly at Eddie, regarding his rabid dislike of the Academies.

Moore has done some more and put forward some more meaningful performances than Freeman had at the same stage. I also see more footballing talent in Moore.

Freeman from his small glimpse this year though has shown some good signs that he may have something, but there are going to be some real bargains through the academy system. Not that we have seen him yet but Lloyd Perris going in the rookie draft last year? Really liked that guy last year. But those things happen.

Hi KM
So if Melbourne receive pick 3 for Frawley and trade it as Roos has hinted is there any chance We take Brayshaw at 2? Seems like the kind of player Roos wants.

Assuming Petracca has been taken Brayshaw may be in the mix. Lever is another who I can see appealing to Melbourne. Both are logical fits for Melbourne.

 

[x_les_x]

With Port Freo Geelong and north draft positions changing this weekend do you think everybody would still take the same players in your phantom or would clubs take different players currently listed in the four clubs?

 

[Knightmare]

With Port Freo Geelong and north draft positions changing this weekend do you think everybody would still take the same players in your phantom or would clubs take different players currently listed in the four clubs?

Not a whole lot of change. I have Marchbank falling to Fremantle from memory. A few other slight tweak.

If anything it will be more just talent generally moving around than related to ladder position changes.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Assuming Petracca has been taken Brayshaw may be in the mix. Lever is another who I can see appealing to Melbourne. Both are logical fits for Melbourne.

In the event we get P3 as compo and we actually go to the draft with both selections, do you think we'll go Brayshaw and Lever or McCartin.

My preference is for McCartin. He and Hogan would make for an epic pairing!

 

[Knightmare]

In the event we get P3 as compo and we actually go to the draft with both selections, do you think we'll go Brayshaw and Lever or McCartin.

My preference is for McCartin. He and Hogan would make for an epic pairing!

Whenever you can have the two high, high forwards it's worth doing. I'd be in favour of selecting McCartin certainly. Terrifically dominant talent and it's so hard to find that quality of key forward.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Whenever you can have the two high, high forwards it's worth doing. I'd be in favour of selecting McCartin certainly. Terrifically dominant talent and it's so hard to find that quality of key forward.

Agreed. To the extent that with free agency and the general draft pool normally stacked with mids I'd take the opportunity to grab McCartin regardless of compo etc.

 

[Masto]

Paige has Kyle Langford at pick 14 while Terry Wallets has him at pick 12. You buying into the hype as a big bodied midfielder?

 

[year of the cat]

Paige has Kyle Langford at pick 14 while Terry Wallets has him at pick 12. You buying into the hype as a big bodied midfielder?

Do you have the rest of his picks and what teams they were aligned to?

 

[Masto]

Do you have the rest of his picks and what teams they were aligned to?

20- GWS -Corey Ellis
19- Essendon - Clem Smith
18- Sydney - Isaac Heeney
17- Hawthorn - Tom Lamb
16- Port Adelaide -Hugh Goddard
15- North Melbourne -Ed Vickers-Willis
14- Gold Coast - Lachie Weller
13- Geelong - Caleb Marchbank
12- Fremantle - Kyle Langford
11- Richmond - Liam Duggan
10- West Coast - Jarrod Pickett
9- Adelaide - Sam Durdin
8- Collingwood - Darcy Moore
7- Gold Coast - Paul Ahern
6- Carlton - Jayden Laverde
5- Western Bulldogs - Jake Lever
4- Brisbane - Patrick McCartin
3- GWS - Peter Wright
2- Melbourne - Angus Brayshaw
1 - St Kilda - Christian Petracca

 

[year of the cat]

20- GWS -Corey Ellis
19- Essendon - Clem Smith
18- Sydney - Isaac Heeney
17- Hawthorn - Tom Lamb
16- Port Adelaide -Hugh Goddard
15- North Melbourne -Ed Vickers-Willis
14- Gold Coast - Lachie Weller
13- Geelong - Caleb Marchbank
12- Fremantle - Kyle Langford
11- Richmond - Liam Duggan
10- West Coast - Jarrod Pickett
9- Adelaide - Sam Durdin
8- Collingwood - Darcy Moore
7- Gold Coast - Paul Ahern
6- Carlton - Jayden Laverde
5- Western Bulldogs - Jake Lever
4- Brisbane - Patrick McCartin
3- GWS - Peter Wright
2- Melbourne - Angus Brayshaw
1 - St Kilda - Christian Petracca

Cheers.

 

[Prochard123]

How does Moore rate against mcartin Lever Marchbank Wright? Given that GC wants a local boy, surely Western Bulldogs will not bid on Moore knowing that one of the previous KPP might most likely will slide to their pick? I think Carlton is the only threat which will prevent Collingwood from getting Moore with a second round pick. Thoughts?

 

[Knightmare]

Paige has Kyle Langford at pick 14 while Terry Wallets has him at pick 12. You buying into the hype as a big bodied midfielder?

Langford big bodied midfield? At 73kg? Not for me. Hasn't even shown any real signs that he is a midfielder mostly playing forward or back flank.

There are so many Victorians this year who are severely overrated and will go higher than they should.

In no particular order: Ahern, Duggan, De Goey, Lamb, C.Ellis, Langford, Vickers-Willis, Cunico, Capiron, T.Miller, Cavka, Lonie. They all feel like they'll go higher than they probably should.

I think it will be those who look outside of this group of Victorians that will find the success.

 

[Knightmare]

How does Moore rate against mcartin Lever Marchbank Wright? Given that GC wants a local boy, surely Western Bulldogs will not bid on Moore knowing that one of the previous KPP might most likely will slide to their pick? I think Carlton is the only threat which will prevent Collingwood from getting Moore with a second round pick. Thoughts?

Generally less productive and much less dominant than McCartin as a forward and Lever as a defender when he was healthy last season.

It may be a situation for both Carlton and West Bulldogs where both or one of Durdin or Wright is available so they will need to weigh that against whether they like Moore.

The issue for Collingwood I feel will come if Melbourne secure that compensation pick after pick 2. Unless there are some last minute risers in this draft - say Laverde as an example with clubs liking him more than has generally been assumed in that Bontempelli way last year or perhaps someone else that would be Collingwood's best chance.

It's a situation as a Collingwood fan I've naturally thought about more than I should and I have calculated for the various scenarios but still most likely Collingwood assuming we want Moore will have to use pick 8 to get him.