Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Billy Puller]

I couldn't possibly see you pulling off getting Weller at 22. Gun.

Can't see weller going past gold coasts first pick

 

[juddtrain]

Do you think Josh Webster North Ballarat Rebels captain has any chance of getting drafted? Rookie?

 

[Eastern Rangers]

There is no way Jermaine Miller-Lewis is going in the first two rounds on what he's produced so far.

 

[nottenthagain]

Dunkley is the real standout of that group for Sydney and looks a top 3 talent next year. One to look forward to even if it's still very early.

Will definately be forced to use our 1st rounder to get Dunkley.... our second will be on academy player Callum Mills.

Two bargains for Sydney, both are first rounders as it currently stands and on expected ladder positions we'd only get one at best in an open market


With Heeney likely to cost a 1st or 2nd rounder this year you can imagine Sydney will trade strongly to get some live picks over the next few years

EDIT - 1st rounder if he keeps this up. TAC V Stingrays yesterday - quote from Swans site 'Heeney finished as the best player for the Rams with 33 disposals, 10 tackles, 10 clearances, seven inside 50s and two score assists'. Hefty stats!

 

[Rancid Trogs]

G'day Knightmare,

loving the updates - gives the people plenty to get excited about when our sides aren't going so well. Just a couple of quick questions:

1) Regarding Nakia Cockatoo: does he definitely project as a damaging outside running type (ie. wingman / flanker), or does he possess / have enough potential do develop an inside game allowing him to become a genuine inside / outside midfielder? Would he be a stretch with Essendon's first pick (end of 1st round compo #19)?

2) Of the selections you've made so far (up to pick #38), who are the top 5 for leg speed?

Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare,

Just wondering if you had any opinion on who the safest bets of the draft are? Like every year there are the 'better' players and all that but there might be a bit more risk/bust potential associated with some of them (but extra reward, too). Are there any players in this draft that you look at and just go 'yep, he's going to be a serviceable AFL player for sure' without much doubt at all; very low bust potential. Likewise are there any of the highly touted prospects that you think are a real chance at being busts? I'm especially curious regarding the KPPs in the draft.

And another question. In your eyes what sets Durdin apart from say, the D. Talia types of previous drafts to make him a top 3-5 projection. Like where does he excel that other junior key backs just don't?

Cheers

Historically key position players and on-ballers are typically the safest bets in the first round. Take one of these types in their appropriate draft range and they're the safest bets.

If you want me to make a call on a safe bet I'd go Angus Brayshaw.

Durdin has the extra height, better skill set and the versatility to play both ends which is why he is at this point relative to most others is considered favourably.

Hey Knightmare,

I know it's early on in the year and draft picks are near impossible to accurately guess without trade week passing etc, but if St Kilda were to get picks 2, 22 and 43 (so basically 2nd pick at the start of each round) would a draft of Peter Wright, Lachie Weller and Alex Urban be possible in your opinion? My rationale being we've lost some quality guys through our midfield in recent years (Dal Santo, Goddard, Ball and soon Hayes and Montagna) so some quality mids are necessary but we also need a key forward. With these 2 factors in mind who do you think would be good for St Kilda and who at this point is realistic with the above mentioned picks?

Thanks

Wright looks like the top pick. If the Saints have pick two don't bet on him being available. Weller at this point looks a top 10 selection and clear first round selection. I wouldn't on him being available either. Urban if he keeps playing to a high level might not be available in the 3rd round either.

The Saints should pick a key position player first round with that being where the value is early but after that, that's when you'd be looking for your midfielders.

Do you think Josh Webster North Ballarat Rebels captain has any chance of getting drafted? Rookie?

Webster isn't someone I've taken extensive notes on. Plays down back and plays a role. May be a rookie chance with further improvement. Lots of footy to be played.

G'day Knightmare,

loving the updates - gives the people plenty to get excited about when our sides aren't going so well. Just a couple of quick questions:

1) Regarding Nakia Cockatoo: does he definitely project as a damaging outside running type (ie. wingman / flanker), or does he possess / have enough potential do develop an inside game allowing him to become a genuine inside / outside midfielder? Would he be a stretch with Essendon's first pick (end of 1st round compo #19)?

2) Of the selections you've made so far (up to pick #38), who are the top 5 for leg speed?

Cheers

An inside game may be something Cockatoo can build into his game. He's a nice height and has some size on his frame. He could well play both outside and inside. Seems pretty comfortable everywhere from the limited bits I've seen.

Pick 19 may be possible but given he's out for the year if I had to guess where he goes, I can imagine him going somewhere around pick 30 as Robertson and Cutler who missed time last year did.

Can I pick 15? There are lots of quick guys in this draft.
For pace I'd go for:
Jarrod Pickett (he won't test off the charts but will test well for pace and while he isn't the no.1 or perhaps not even 5th fastest he'll take on the game more than any so he may as well be the quickest because he certainly uses his pace more/better than anyone else)
Billy Stretch (real linebreaker and has crazy pace and may well be the quickest in this draft)
Clem Smith (has a real burst of pace and can break the lines)
Tom Lamb (for his height is incredibly quick and would have to be among the quickest players in this draft. Really creates seperation on the lead)
Kyle Langford (also tall but at his height is incredibly quick)

 

[Chris25]

I'd be lowering my expectations for Cockatoo. Top 30? Nah, just getting drafted would be the goal.

 

[BlueMaster1]

Knightmare what are you thoughts on jake and Sam sharp (tas)

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare what are you thoughts on jake and Sam sharp (tas)

Will get to know the Tasmanians better through the u18 champs.

Don't know enough about either at this stage.

 

[BlueMaster1]

Will get to know the Tasmanians better through the u18 champs.

Don't know enough about either at this stage.

What about Jay bowdens chances of getting drafted

 

[Knightmare]

I'd be lowering my expectations for Cockatoo. Top 30? Nah, just getting drafted would be the goal.

He's got 2nd round talent. With guys who are out for the season - or likely to be the draft ratings can be unclear and being a Div 2 guy less exposure hurts but he'd be a bargain late/rookie draft if he slid that far and with his talent I'd certainly have him in the top half of the national draft on quality.

In any case I'm pretty open minded with his draft position and more rumblings will come out later on as to exactly where he'll feature.

What about Jay bowdens chances of getting drafted

Has been overlooked in years past so I wouldn't be optimistic he gets onto an AFL list next year but you never say never as every second year there seems to be a guy who fits that profile where they've been a known quantity for a while and finally get their opportunity.

 

[Chris25]

Even pre injury, Cockatoo probably wasn't going top 30.

 

[Knightmare]

Even pre injury, Cockatoo probably wasn't going top 30.

What don't you like with Cockatoo that you don't see him as a top half prospect?

Admittedly I've only seen bits of him last year through the champs so if you've seen a larger sample size I'm interested to hear your thoughts and why you have him as a later if draft type prospect.

 

[imabowss]

There is no way Jermaine Miller-Lewis is going in the first two rounds on what he's produced so far.

There is no way Jermaine Miller-Lewis is going in the first two rounds on what he's produced so far.

Jermaine carried injuries all through last year and hasn't played a game this year due to stress fractures in his shin, has serious talent and ability.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Knightmare what is Lachie Wellers' pace like?

 

[Cleric]

Hey Knightmare, enjoy reading your mock drafts and write ups. Couple of questions if thats ok?
1. This draft is said to be a great KPP draft and so I was wondering how would put Tom Boyd in the standings against this years crop of big men?
2. Jarrod pickett seems to be on our (Adelaide) radar, so is he the best option for outside pace and carry at our possible first pick?
Thx

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Jermaine carried injuries all through last year and hasn't played a game this year due to stress fractures in his shin, has serious talent and ability.

Coming off a shoulder injury he played twenty colts games last year playing in a dominant side and simply not registering enough good games. What injury was he carrying though the year? I know he has talent i watched him enough to know that, just getting his hands on the pill is the problem.

 

[ThaiBarmats]

Off thread, but know you love the sport. What do you feel over the viney incident ?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare what is Lachie Wellers' pace like?

Not explosive pace but still moves well and is hardly so slow that he's a liability.

Hey Knightmare, enjoy reading your mock drafts and write ups. Couple of questions if thats ok?
1. This draft is said to be a great KPP draft and so I was wondering how would put Tom Boyd in the standings against this years crop of big men?
2. Jarrod pickett seems to be on our (Adelaide) radar, so is he the best option for outside pace and carry at our possible first pick?
Thx

1. I tend to favour Boyd but some of the others aren't far off. Wright may be better but I worry about his history of back injuries so I'd lean towards the healthier guy first (Boyd). Wright certainly has the ability to be a no.1 forward option, Durdin if he played more forward probably could, McCartin maybe and Goddard as a no.2 option would be excellent. So they're all guys you can build with. That's for sure.
2. For outside pace and run and carry specifically Pickett is my pick. He's quick but he's quick of mind and takes on the game at will and does it almost every time he finds the footy which is what makes him really dangerous.

Off thread, but know you love the sport. What do you feel over the viney incident ?

The match review panel do what they do. Many of the reports I feel are over the top but as a fan it's out of my control and as someone more interested in the list management side of the game it's not something I lose sleep over.

Sure I'd love to see Viney play this weekend. I'll be attending the Melbourne v Dogs game this weekend and I want to see all the best players out on the park from both sides. But that happens in footy.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Not explosive pace but still moves well and is hardly so slow that he's a liability.

Thanks mate. Not having watched much of Lachie I find it curious how highly rated he is. Doesn't seem to have any weapons aside from a really well rounded game. I would have thought he would slip lower (2nd/3rd round) being so short and slight.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks mate. Not having watched much of Lachie I find it curious how highly rated he is. Doesn't seem to have any weapons aside from a really well rounded game. I would have thought he would slip lower (2nd/3rd round) being so short and slight.

I wouldn't be so quick to say no weapons. He might be the best kicking onballer in this draft. His combination of penetration, vision and decision making, gives him something a little extra over the others in what is a pretty ordinary draft for onballers.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

I wouldn't be so quick to say no weapons. He might be the best kicking onballer in this draft. His combination of penetration, vision and decision making, gives him something a little extra over the others in what is a pretty ordinary draft for onballers.

Possibly my wording is a bit too heavy handed there. I meant to say that I have not really heard that he has a standout attribute but that is interesting. I would love him at GC. Has trained with the club on numerous occasions and we need another good kick/decision maker in our squad. Am I being greedy?

Would be a handy addition to our outside stocks while he develops.

 

[Knightmare]

Possibly my wording is a bit too heavy handed there. I meant to say that I have not really heard that he has a standout attribute but that is interesting. I would love him at GC. Has trained with the club on numerous occasions and we need another good kick/decision maker in our squad. Am I being greedy?

Would be a handy addition to our outside stocks while he develops.

You can never be greedy when it comes to guys with size, pace or footskills. The more the better.

Weller seems a relatively immediate player. May have a similar impact to say Luke Parker with some luck in those first seasons if he continues his development well.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Another question Knightmare. It is possible (although probably not too likely and I sure hope not) that Tom Nicholls may go home or to Sydney to be with his girlfriend (Kurt Tippetts' sister) as he has stalled contract negotiations.

What ruck prospects could we look at later in the draft or rookie draft to suit our squad? I like his ability to win contested ball and tackle but it is so rare. I really worry about losing him. I believe it is more likely he will stay though.

 

[Chris25]

What don't you like with Cockatoo that you don't see him as a top half prospect?

Admittedly I've only seen bits of him last year through the champs so if you've seen a larger sample size I'm interested to hear your thoughts and why you have him as a later if draft type prospect.

It's not that I necessarily don't like him, I think everyone knows how much I like the NT boys. But you can't ignore history when it comes to these players either. Very few go inside the first two rounds. Yes, Cockatoo is part of the AIS squad but so was Wasley-Black. There is always one or two who make the squad, but it doesn't mean they are necessarily one of the best 20 kids in the country.

On potential and performance, I would compare him more to someone like Damian Williams rather than Jed Anderson. No denying his pure talent, but I don't think he holds the same sort of standing as say Cutler or Robertson - who were still drafted high despite injury. They both have elite AFL size, versatility and had performed strongly. I'd have the same range on both Nakia Cockatoo and Warrick Wilson.