Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

Maynard's disposal gets talked up as being ordinary and I admit I've only seen him once being last week, but he was pin-pointing bullets from the back-line.
Did I just get him on a good day because if this is the standard, the left leg looks to be a weapon.

I was also impressed with Lonie. Good speed, very agile and extremely clean around his toes.
One pick-up in particular was of a premium standard. 5 goals also looked pretty good.

Maynard can lack consistency with the occasional shank or bad miss or target or kick out on the full. Other times though his kicks to target can be excellent with as you mention some pin-point passes so he isn't a completely deficient kick either. It's really a mixed bag which isn't ideal but there is still some kicking ability to work with so he'll just have to iron it out some and hopefully develop that consistency by foot so we see more of the good.

Lonie did have a strong game v Geelong Falcons hitting the scoreboard at above his average clip (has only 18 goals from the 14 games this year). There are just some bits with Lonie that don't impress me - while his footskills can be good he can also be prone to some really poor kicks and decisions. He just lacks that bit freakish front half talent or dominant play for me with a few others - Toby McLean as an example a better performed small marking forward who has shown me a bit more. In saying that Lonie has his fans and you're not the only one to like his game.

 

[Dukes Of Hurley]

There seems to be quite a lot of interest in Connor Menadue.
Wrote a draft profile on him a few months ago, caught my eye, and I'm almost certain that he will be better than Ellis and Laverde

http://boundforglorynews.com/2014-draft-profile-connor-menadue/

 

[Zach Package]

This is a 2013 article stating that they could only use a third rounder because that's the first pick they had. If a team bid for one of their father sons in the first round they wouldn't be able to bid for it without a second it sounds like.

I would have thought they could bid their own pick on other father son picks though. Just because it's a compensation pick doesn't mean it can't be used on father sons. Ridiculous argument.

we can't bid on anything with 19.

F/S restrictions only run up to pick 32. Anyone bids on Jake Long with a pick higher than 32 (where our 2nd rounder would have been according to ladder positions) then we can't match, any bids after that then we can then match with our next available selection which is currently 49.

Whether we've just hidden Long from sight really well or he's just not that good (I suspect it's a blend of both tbh), the restrictions on our f/s bidding are essentially meaningless.

 

[Richo83]

imo special talents don't have to go thru the midfield much until their early/mid 20's. They can be matchwinners or matchturners on a flank. eg Wingard, Stevie J, Le Cras, Gray, Hoskin-Elliott, Bennell, both Menzels (hopefully) etc

imo Laverde has at least 4 star qualities for the modern game: ability/skill, sheer pace, frame, confidence.

To me he is the one (along with Petracca, McCartin and Wright) who you have to crane your neck to see the possible ceiling.

And I'm not sure what not being able to play full midfield means anyway. Does it mean getting 25-30 touches per game? Does it mean playing between the arcs full time? Because not many players do the latter and guys like Laverde don't need to do the former to change a game anyway. Guys like Sloane only average 23.7 touches per game, I can see Laverde getting similar numbers. Wingard doesn't touch the ball that much but he's damaging when he does.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

And I'm not sure what not being able to play full midfield means anyway. Does it mean getting 25-30 touches per game? Does it mean playing between the arcs full time? Because not many players do the latter and guys like Laverde don't need to do the former to change a game anyway. Guys like Sloane only average 23.7 touches per game, I can see Laverde getting similar numbers. Wingard doesn't touch the ball that much but he's damaging when he does.

Similarly Hird only averaged 22-23 disposals even at his peak.

 

[Richo83]

I think when analysing whether a draftee can shift from forward to midfield, you can't just look at their stats, you have to look at the way they play. Laverde is strong, quick, tall, has decent endurance and runs to the right spots. He has the tools to average 20-25 touches a game. Knightmare rates Laverde so he's probably nitpicking and I like how knightmare has provided a weakness of the top 20 or so, not everyone of these guys is or will become a superstar.

 

[Knightmare]

There seems to be quite a lot of interest in Connor Menadue.
Wrote a draft profile on him a few months ago, caught my eye, and I'm almost certain that he will be better than Ellis and Laverde

http://boundforglorynews.com/2014-draft-profile-connor-menadue/

Menadue is quality and his final was that game for him that was most special and head and shoulders above any of his other performances.

I definitely like Menadue over Ellis but Laverde? I can see that and I rate them only 1-2 positions apart on my draft board but make me pick and I would still slightly favour Laverde.

I would strongly agree with you that Menadue is severely underrated and should be spoken about as more a first rounder rather than a third rounder or wherever others see him going.

Menadue's edge is even greater acceleration, an even more dynamic sidestep and a more efficient and more damaging kick with his ability to hit the long inside 50 targets and is generally the better decision maker with ball in hand.
Laverde on the other hand is the stronger bodied and can do pretty much all the same things but just has a substantial and special 1v1 superiority considering he does have many of these same gifts. I also favour his front half talent as someone who forward of centre just is special in everything he does and I also give him the versatility edge being able to play forward, back and midfield if you want him to.

In any case really like them both as my power rankings on page one suggest.

 

[Dukes Of Hurley]

Menadue is quality and his final was that game for him that was most special and head and shoulders above any of his other performances.

I definitely like Menadue over Ellis but Laverde? I can see that and I rate them only 1-2 positions apart on my draft board but make me pick and I would still slightly favour Laverde.

I would strongly agree with you that Menadue is severely underrated and should be spoken about as more a first rounder rather than a third rounder or wherever others see him going.

Menadue's edge is even greater acceleration, an even more dynamic sidestep and a more efficient and more damaging kick with his ability to hit the long inside 50 targets and is generally the better decision maker with ball in hand.
Laverde on the other hand is the stronger bodied and can do pretty much all the same things but just has a substantial and special 1v1 superiority considering he does have many of these same gifts. I also favour his front half talent as someone who forward of centre just is special in everything he does and I also give him the versatility edge being able to play forward, back and midfield if you want him to.

In any case really like them both as my power rankings on page one suggest.

As much upside as Laverde has, I haven't seen him dominate on a consistent basis. His kicking and marking are excellent, as is his athleticism. But there's so much x-factor about Menadue. The fact that he has been able to step up and not only add goal kicking to his arsenal, but to kick crucial goals is significant for me. The fact that he tore it up during the Jets only final, especially when he had no help (no duggan, ellis and laverde) also really stood out for me.

I wouldn't judge either for at least 3 years in the AFL system, as they're both raw, but that speed and kicking ability just screams potential star to me, and Laverde probably has another 1-2 boxes he needs to tick with consistency in finding the ball and tackling

 

[legendkinga8]

KM, What are your thoughts on Cory Gregson and Alex Neal-Bullen?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, What are your thoughts on Cory Gregson and Alex Neal-Bullen?

Like them both and like their inside games.

Gregson is a well performed small midfielder and if picked up late draft would represent strong value as someone who can help immediately.

Neal-Bullen somewhere second round also feels like he will be a really strong value midfielder as a really well performed midfielder at SANFL league level.

 

[Richo83]

Similarly Hird only averaged 22-23 disposals even at his peak.

And like Hird, Laverde has an ability to run to the right positions. With proper training, I think he'll improve his output and become a really damaging player. Laverde's vision and football IQ is arguably the best from this draft IMO.

 

[Crippa16]

Hey KM
How do you rate Connor Menadue's talent to Nat Fyfe's talent and size frame in his respective draft year ? And do you think that Mendaue can put the right amount of muscle on that will enable him to be a very good afl player ?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM
How do you rate Connor Menadue's talent to Nat Fyfe's talent and size frame in his respective draft year ? And do you think that Mendaue can put the right amount of muscle on that will enable him to be a very good afl player ?

Menadue is a very different type of talent. I imagine he will be able to put the size onto his frame. I don't see him becoming anywhere near the dominant contested ball winner of Fyfe though. He isn't that style of player. I also don't see him having nearing that same immediate impact as someone who will need a few seasons to find his feet. Ryan Griffen might be a best case scenario if he does put size onto his frame.

 

[kaistar]

Knight are the tac games today being televised?

 

[theflea]

KM have you updated you list recently? Would it be wise for all phantom drafters to put a date at the top so we know how old they are? Cheers thanks.

 

[Skippos]

KM have you updated you list recently? Would it be wise for all phantom drafters to put a date at the top so we know how old they are? Cheers thanks.

down the bottom of each post there'll be an edit timestamp to indicate when the post was last edited. might not always indicate when a conclusive update has happened but at the very least indicates that the poster as of that date is happy with the post (i.e. no glaring changes need to be made)

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Do you reckon Ben Cavarra is a chance to be picked up this year Knightmare? And/or will Caleb Daniel suffer the same fate?

 

[Knightmare]

Knight are the tac games today being televised?

I don't believe TAC Cup games are ever televised. If they are that would be interesting to know so that I can more leisurely review games about but I just attend TAC Cup games at this point.

KM have you updated you list recently? Would it be wise for all phantom drafters to put a date at the top so we know how old they are? Cheers thanks.

I last updated at the completion of round 23 for your knowledge. Timestamping is an idea. After the TAC Cup Grand Final my hope is weekly to update things - or at least weekly add to/update my collection of draft profiles.

In saying that I've made some in my ongoing word doc that you will see next update - eg. Wright is no longer the highest rated on my draft board. Oscar McDonald I have moved up to around 15 on my draft board. Among some other changes. My draft profiles next update will also read differently as again my views on what some players can/can't do have also changed.

As one example with Wright one reason for dropping down my draft board is his marking. Terrifically clean mark overhead but the issue is he doesn't clunk the marks and with contact can struggle to take it, even as a tall beast of a guy.

Do you reckon Ben Cavarra is a chance to be picked up this year Knightmare? And/or will Caleb Daniel suffer the same fate?

Cavarra wasn't invited to the state or national combines. Has had a good first up VFL season but some bits missing with his disposal efficiency not as high as it needs to be for an outside type, his contested ball winning still not where it needs to be and reasonable but not freakish pace. Aerobically he is terrific but needs a bit of extra special talent to catch the eye of AFL recruiters.

Caleb Daniel may also miss but given he has been invited to the national combine he is while not a sure thing to get drafted in the mix for selection, probably if picked as a rookie. Daniel for me has a bit more talent. Well performed at SANFL league level and through the u18 champs but what stands out to me while he like Cavarra can find it, he is a terrific user of the footy with his footskills, vision, decision making and his work under pressure all exceptional making him that little bit more interesting.

 

[Crippa16]

Hey KM What type of player is Taylor Grace ? Midfielder with good skills ?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM What type of player is Taylor Grace ? Midfielder with good skills ?

A real in and under midfielder. No flash, low influence and you don't always necessarily notice him but really finds the footy and is certainly very productive and well performed. Skillset sufficient but not overly damaging though mostly gives it off by hand doing mostly the inside stuff that unless really looking for you might not necessarily notice.

 

[TradeDraft]

Lever going at Pick 3 seems a Big Reach with him not playing all year

 

[RedmanWasHere]

With Darcy Moore, there would seem to be a little problem.

At Collingwood, we know that top draft picks since 2010 (Jackson Paine excluded) have gotten the No. 35 and at the end of this year, we'd have No's. 30 and 35 vacated as Scharenberg will move to a different number.

Could Collingwood take Darcy Moore as their first pick on the proviso that he wears his father's old number and their 2nd pick wears No. 35?

 

[redandblack]

I didn't see West Adelaide's Under 18 Prelim Final yesterday, but was kept well informed.

I'd say Sam Durdin is back to the form clubs have been waiting for. Here's some of his stats yesterday (playing ruck).

44 hitouts

20 disposals

7 clearances

7 rebound 50's.

He was very, very good.

For West, Brett Turner was again outstanding in the midfield, with 26 possessions and 3 goals?

Jess Watchman also kicked 3.

For those looking ahead to the 2015 draft, write down Jack Agostino and Riley Bonner - class.

 

[Skippos]

I didn't see West Adelaide's Under 18 Prelim Final yesterday, but was kept well informed.

I'd say Sam Durdin is back to the form clubs have been waiting for. Here's some of his stats yesterday (playing ruck).

44 hitouts, 20 disposals, 7 clearances, 7 rebound 50's.

He was very, very good.

For West, Brett Turner was again outstanding in the midfield, with 26 possessions and 3 goals?

Jess Watchman also kicked 3.

For those looking ahead to the 2015 draft, write down Jack Agostino and Riley Bonner - class.

Just to 'clarify' - he was good but not dominant like his stats sheet suggests. He had a good day (relative to his previous performances) but still lacked a bit of intensity and definitely lacked some mongrel. His ability to neutralise or win most aerial contests and float back and help defence was good as was his follow ups from the ruck. Disposed of it well. Was a good game but didn't dominate by any means IMO. Worth remembering that this is under 18s too. Durdin would be one of the oldest players there, often playing against 15 through 17 year olds. You'd want him to really impose himself at that level as a top draft prospect. He was good though.

Haysman and Snelling two more from Wests I think are okay shots for next year.

 

[Cori]

KM, Paige's recent update has Wright falling to pick 5, then Menadue at pick 25 for the dogs. What are the chances of this happening because I dared to dream for a moment then remembered that I barrack for the dogs.