Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[94_Eagles]

Do you see him going to WCE? I have a feeling we will miss out on Weller and Pickett and he looks a good get.

Cardona still has us getting Pickett.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare how do you rate Laverde against Lennon last year and Heppell in his draft year?

Heppell - Laverde - Lennon for me.

Heppell back and through the midfield is clearly the most dominant of those guys.

Laverde I considered a better talent than Lennon who is good, but not in the class of Laverde.

Yeah fair enough. I'd be pretty keen to turn him into a full time or Bont-style midfielder, which could further lower his ceiling or blow it open I guess.

That would be the transition I'd hope for. Whether it happens? It's a wait and see. If you haven't seen something you can only speculate based on attributes and the things he consistently does in game. It's something that I see taking him certainly longer than Bontempelli but it's still possible for him.

What are the chances of Daniel Mckenzie lasting until pick 50? None?

Possible but against the odds, particularly with his strong draft combine results.

KM - any chance we can get cockatoo? I love the look of this kid.

23 is the pick you'd use on him if there, but more likely than not he is gone by that stage based on all the recent excitement about him.

Knightmare i love your work but no way we take durdin at 10 after our trade period. Mids it is,preferably with speed.

Question,which of weller,pickett,laverde and ahern do you think are most likely to fall to 10 and in the (unlikely) event they were all there,who would you pick and why?

Weller and Laverde should both be gone and probably only one, maybe two if lucky of Pickett and Ahern is available at 10.

Of Pickett and Ahern I'd go Pickett. Ahern feels relatively lower impact with his touches and Pickett's running and ability to take on the game is on another level.

If they're all there that's a tough class. If you put me on the spot I'd go - Laverde, Weller, Pickett then Ahern in that order.

Hey knigtmare do u think pele manivong is any chance of getting drafted this year??

Lots of Western Jets on the radar this year so I imagine clubs have seen enough of him but as far as I'm aware Manivong wasn't invited to the state or national combine so I don't expect he gets drafted.

Hey, knightmare, who do you think the dons will pick up with 17 and 20? Or who would be the best fit?

Probably one inside and one outside type would make sense for Essendon.

Essendon would probably like both De Goey and Garlett to be available.

But outside the top 10 as is the case every year you never quite know exactly who will be available and who will be the highest rated on each draft board. Just logical guesswork by that stage based on the guys who are roughly projected to available and the clubs needs.

 

[baldandbroke]

I reckon the change of first round picks of Adelaide and Geelong tells a story.

Geelong wanted 10 so they could jump ahead of the two Western Australian Teams (at 11 and 13) - and 14 for Adelaide keeps them ahead of North Melbourne (at 16)

Geloong looking at snagging Jarrod Pickett? Adelaide want Nakia Cockatoo?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, whats your view on the swap of trade picks that Adelaide did with Geelong? Do you think it will hurt the Crows to go back 4 places in the first and would that be compensated by moving up more in the second? Im thinking maybe they might go for Cookatoo with their first. We still have to get some outside class and speed and with Pickett and Ahern most likely gone by 14 would you consider him the best left after them?

Adelaide clearly think their guy will be available at 14. That's what that move tells me from an Adelaide perspective (in that Dom Sheed to WCE kind of way last year). It may well be someone less highly rated but I imagine Adelaide like Goddard or Marchbank with at least one of the two if not both surely available.

Cockatoo still may be available and could well be considered, it's questionable in my mind whether Garlett or Cockatoo are better, I slightly favour Garlett having seen more of him but Cockatoo of the quick indigenous guys is probably the favoured of the two as a taller guy with that explosive pace.

I'm hoping pies go laverde at pick 5 (pace, height and front half talent is a need) Moore obviously at 9 (future key position player is a need) and Bampton at 30 (loss of beams) and I reckon pies could be winners. I also agree that pies might take an over ager at 48 due to the success of Langdon knightmare. Hine likes to do his themes as you saw with the south aussies, is there anyone is this draft that can do what Tom Langdon did? I like the sound of Grace but his production wasn't as high as Langdon as an overager if I remember correctly

I'm ok with Laverde at 5. Bampton at 30 I'd be thrilled with, the guy will be a top few mid in this draft I'd be inclined to say, even if he doesn't come with the versatility to play multiple positions.

I have the Pies in my re-ordered update taking Taylor Grace as an overager. A Nathan Drummond or some other overager, maybe Dan Howe if available also is very possible if they see someone they like. Grace more so at VFL level wasn't quite as productive as Langdon, with Langdon down back like at AFL level just taking it in his stride, Grace while he has been sufficient hasn't as easily made that adjustment to VFL footy in those 7 or so games he has played at that level.

KM any classic sliders this year that end up being gems?

Ala Lewy Taylor, Matt Crouch, Wines, Grundy, B Hill, Darling etc

Other than the academy and father son guys who all have been taken on the cheap, Hugh Goddard, Peter Bampton, Connor Blakely, Dean Gore, Reece McKenzie, Oscar McDonald and Caleb Daniel are my bets for value this year.

Nightmare great work on getting the reworked order out there so quickly.

I've been hearing from lot of different sources that Melbourne are really into Lever and would probably take him and Brayshaw. It would obviously be a risk due to his knee injury but what are you thoughts on that. How does Lever stack up quality wise compared to McCartin?

The other query I have is the no.1 pick. Petracca appears to be favourite but do you think that there is any chance that the Saints will go after McCartin? It's an interesting scenario because my info is that we want Brayshaw and Lever, meaning that Petracca could potentially drop to #4.

I'd be inclined to say that Lever is a safer selection than McCartin and Wright. Perhaps not as much of a freakish talent or freakish athlete at some incredible size but a very productive footballer, top quality character and leader. Given the youth of that Melbourne team and the back half needs he is someone I imagine Melbourne strongly consider.

I certainly don't yet know for certain who Melbourne will take with that pick 3. There is a real mix of noise. Some say McCartin, others say Wright, others say Lever. We'll know more over the coming weeks as the journos get to work and suss things out I'm sure.

we'll probably only use pick 37, and need KPD, who do you think will still be available? Any chance McDonald will slip a little?

Oscar McDonald is a genuine chance to be available at 37. If he is terrific selection Sydney. At that stage he would be someone with some strong scope to develop.

What about Harry Dear? Can play forward and ruck, looks like a late draft special?

Dear is tall and athletic but production mild at best. He is a combo forward/ruck and best suited in that relief ruck role. Probably more a rookie chance but not out of the question he gets a shot.

Do you see him going to WCE? I have a feeling we will miss out on Weller and Pickett and he looks a good get.

Duggan is a chance and someone if available I can see West Coast at least having on their shortlist if Laverde/Weller/Pickett/Ahern are all gone as could well happen.

 

[typewriter]

I think we should pick laverade ahead of macartin we aren't short of young key defenders/key forwards/ruckmem but we do lack class pace and athleticism in the midfield

Even though i agree with you that we do need mids, however with pick 5 i think we'd be crazy to pass on McCartin or Wright. We must go best available, and we all know that KP trade value is high (if we find out we have too many), we also have Broomhead/kennedy who will play more footy and hopefully step up to fill the void. we can get a good mid at pick 30. Im also not convinced Laverde is an out and out mid - more a flanker

 

[eth-dog]

Didn't get the chance to ask you, with the state league combine results in, who's impressed and moved up the order?

 

[Knightmare]

Surley Ben Cavara will get rookie listed this year?
Unlucky to be passed on last year and has a solid year makeing the VFL team of the year this year.
Good kid as well. He was Vic Metro captain.

Good kid he may be but not invited to the state or national combine as far as I'm aware. That doesn't suggest he'll get selected.

Terrific season in the VFL though. I'd have no problem with a club taking him as a rookie but you just need room to accommodate that further small. A similar case this year although of draft age this year is Jake Johansen. Caleb Daniel is that other extreme small and smaller again but he'd be my pick of that bunch - the guy had a disposal efficiency of over 91% through the U18 champs! Crazy stuff!

Knightmare - Results of State Draft now up at TAC site -

A number of players recorded times under three seconds in the 20 metre sprint, with Oakleigh Chargers Hugh Beasley saving his best till last with a run of 2.86 seconds. After opening with runs of 2.88 and 2.89, Beasley recorded the equal best time of the State Combine in his final run, joining former Calder Cannon now Coburg Lion Adam Saad with a 2.86 time. The time pipped Reece McKenzie’s (Northern Knights) mark set at the National Combine by a second, and was just five seconds off the best 2014 Combine time of 2.81 set by Marvin Baynham.

do you think Knighmare, Beasley could be a good apprentice for for swans under tuition from Grundy and Ted Richards they seem likely types under swans current game plan - both 192 and Beasley 191.1 (per Oakeligh list) what do you think especially with these times above. David S.

Beasley would be a sound rookie selection for a club. He is a terrifically well performed player and with key defenders personally I don't hold lack of height against them. Most of the best key defenders are around that 192cm mark anyway and just beat the taller guys for strength to such an extent that the height advantage doesn't matter.

Hey KM do you reckon Caleb Marchbank has a high ceiling and could turn into a Eric McKenzie type of player

Marchbank can definitely play and become an excellent key defender. Probably not quite McKenzie good but he can come close if things go right.

Melbourne are apparently very interested in Lever at 3. If that's the case, at pick 4 will GWS take Wright or McCartin? Surely they won't take one at 4 and one at 6. And if McCartin is available at 5, do Collingwood take him or are you guys too into Laverde? The way this top 10 is set out could make things very interesting.

GWS may well take both McCartin and Wright at 4/6 if Lever goes at 3. It hasn't stopped them in the past, that's for sure.

After the first two the top 10 is still fairly open to interpretation until clubs consolidate their draft boards and we hear more about who specific clubs are interested in.

I reckon the change of first round picks of Adelaide and Geelong tells a story.

Geelong wanted 10 so they could jump ahead of the two Western Australian Teams (at 11 and 13) - and 14 for Adelaide keeps them ahead of North Melbourne (at 16)

Geloong looking at snagging Jarrod Pickett? Adelaide want Nakia Cockatoo?

Both clubs historically know what they're doing with draft picks. I imagine both clubs did that swap very strategically knowing in some way it will help them get their guys.

Geelong may well go for Pickett, and it makes sense with some speed going.

Adelaide I sense probably go tall with a Goddard or Marchbank, with one if not both surely there.

 

[Knightmare]

Didn't get the chance to ask you, with the state league combine results in, who's impressed and moved up the order?

I'm not even aware where these state combine results are listed. If you could link post a link that would be helpful.

Generally speaking though testing doesn't change my rankings. Sometimes good/bad endurance testing or interviews can change draft stocks but I'm more an on-field production guy with testing not so much interesting me and more something that explains what can be seen out on the field.

 

[eth-dog]

I'm not even aware where these state combine results are listed. If you could link post a link that would be helpful.

Generally speaking though testing doesn't change my rankings. Sometimes good/bad endurance testing or interviews can change draft stocks but I'm more an on-field production guy with testing not so much interesting me and more something that explains what can be seen out on the field.

Here is the VFL article:

http://www.foxsportspulse.com/assoc...204557-0&&news_task=DETAIL&articleID=31835035

 

[Knightmare]

Here is the VFL article:

http://www.foxsportspulse.com/assoc...204557-0&&news_task=DETAIL&articleID=31835035

Based on those numbers Tagliabue and Saad may be a chance late/rookie.

 

[Prochard123]

Even though i agree with you that we do need mids, however with pick 5 i think we'd be crazy to pass on McCartin or Wright. We must go best available, and we all know that KP trade value is high (if we find out we have too many), we also have Broomhead/kennedy who will play more footy and hopefully step up to fill the void. we can get a good mid at pick 30. Im also not convinced Laverde is an out and out mid - more a flanker

We have gault cloke and Moore as key forwards for years to come as well as one of Grundy and witts in the forward line rotating. I think we have just enough key forward depth both short and long term it's a perfect balance really. However someone like laverade playing a half forward role in similar manner to billings, zorko,rioli will be invaluable for us. It will make our footsiills as a while look much better with the improvement of the quality of forward 50 entries becoming much better. Alan didak imo was my favorite and THE most important player for us in 2010 year, his agility, ability to find targets inside 50 as well as goal sense won us that premiership, and I believe laverade is able to provide these qualities though not to the fullest extent

 

[typewriter]

We have gault cloke and Moore as key forwards for years to come as well as one of Grundy and witts in the forward line rotating. I think we have just enough key forward depth both short and long term it's a perfect balance really. However someone like laverade playing a half forward role in similar manner to billings, zorko,rioli will be invaluable for us. It will make our footsiills as a while look much better with the improvement of the quality of forward 50 entries becoming much better. Alan didak imo was my favorite and THE most important player for us in 2010 year, his agility, ability to find targets inside 50 as well as goal sense won us that premiership, and I believe laverade is able to provide these qualities though not to the fullest extent

Cant rely on Gault to be anything other than depth. Bottom line is Gun key forwards are rare as hens teeth. to be be able have Moore and McCartin/Wright would set us up for the post-cloke era. Next year is deep for mids, not so for key forwards - we dont know when we will be in a position again to draft a young gun key forward.
Im well aware of Laverde's powers - He will be a star. But again there will be quality flankers later in the draft i.e. McLean, Cavka, etc.

 

[Prochard123]

Cant rely on Gault to be anything other than depth. Bottom line is Gun key forwards are rare as hens teeth. to be be able have Moore and McCartin/Wright would set us up for the post-cloke era. Next year is deep for mids, not so for key forwards - we dont know when we will be in a position again to draft a young gun key forward.
Im well aware of Laverde's powers - He will be a star. But again there will be quality flankers later in the draft i.e. McLean, Cavka, etc.

fair enough. However, even if Gault isnt best 22, recruiting another key forward is likely to push either grundy or Witts out of the team. We have enough height on the forward end with one of witts/grundy plus Moore not including Reid/Cloke/white for the future, its the perfect balance really. If we are going to recruit a forward, he must be able to play a really high forward kind of role, similar to Cloke/Tippett who can take a strong mark on the wing once in awhile. The material and height is there, we just need a way to deliver it, and I believe Laverade is a very solid candidate. Alot can change in 1 year. This draft was depicted as a super draft for key position players, but at the end, it is the midfielders who got first priority on everyone's draft list, and it seems like Wright/Macartin/goddard/Lever/Durdin are at least 1 tier below the likes of Boyd/Cameron/Patton/Daniher/Hogan

 

[SugarCoat]

Lever is almost certain to go to Melbourne at 2/3 with Brayshaw.
Collingwood will have a shot at McCartin or Wright.
Wright at 203 cm & Moore at 199 cm would be a very scary proposition moving forward.
It would be like Hawthorn in 2004 getting Franklin/Roughead in the same draft.
Would mean 2 of the best 3 KPF's in the one year go to one team.

 

[Swansujelly]

ok, so McDonald may be around at 37, if not, next best? We really need this pick to work out wit these stupid AFL "bans". A bit off topic, Luke Thompson is a DFA, would he worth a punt(if you know anything about him)PSD?

 

[Bicks]

ok, so McDonald may be around at 37, if not, next best? We really need this pick to work out wit these stupid AFL "bans". A bit off topic, Luke Thompson is a DFA, would he worth a punt(if you know anything about him)PSD?

SA lad Keenan Ramsay likely to be available still, might be worth a look too.

You do not want Luke Thompson...period.

 

[Mullayo]

Hey Knightmare, was wondering why you have GWS taking your 31st ranked player (Ahern) at 7?
Especially since our midfield is stacked now with Steele and Griffen coming in. Do you have some inside knowledge?
As a GWS fan I would love Wright, McCartin, and Lever at the first two picks.
I notice Durdin is falling too, and Goddard has leapfrogged him?

Wright is our biggest need a KPF/ruck relief for Mummy now Giles has gone. McCartin would be next.
An aggressive day 1 starter. Then KPD to learn under Patfull and Davis.

Later (23), I love Connor Blakely and was wondering why he was rated so low by you?
Clean on baller, space and time maker with his footwork good vision and disposal accuracy.

It seems to be just be me but I think GWS has killed this trade period. Patfull (148), Griffen (05), Steele and Finlayson plus picks 4, 6 and 7. The only real losses were Giles and Boyd.

 

[captain cotch 9]

What club do you think tom lamb will go to?
He is my Nat Fyfe of this draft.
He could easily end up being the best player

 

[iBeng]

What club do you think tom lamb will go to?
He is my Nat Fyfe of this draft.
He could easily end up being the best player

Pick 67, Lions, Tom Lamb.

 

[Trav 20]

Lever is a tall defender coming off a knee. We have McDonald, Garland, Dunn, Pedersen (who is better back than forward) and we've just recruited the 194cm centre-half back Sam Frost. We can't fit in the tall defenders we already have.

Other than a couple of randoms on Demonland that have said Melbourne like Lever (and why wouldn't we) and also Brett Anderson, who acknowledges we like his talent, I haven't seen, heard or read any compelling groundswells of opinion that Melbourne are "likely" to take Lever.

If Petracca is gone, I'd be very surprised if we don't take Brayshaw and McCartin. We have a much greater need for McCartin to stand next to Hogan for the next 10 years.

 

[Trav 20]

Lever is almost certain to go to Melbourne at 2/3 with Brayshaw.

This makes me laugh. Why is this so "certain" ? Especially when logic tells you otherwise.

 

[captain cotch 9]

Pick 67, Lions, Tom Lamb.

Steal IMO.

 

[crows101]

km, out of these key defenders what would you rank them from 1 to 4 Durdin, Goddard, Lever, Marchbank?

 

[Draft Buster]

Can you post his State Combine testing results ?

This was taken from the West Australian newspaper...
Others to impress were AIS-AFL Academy members Brad Walsh (Peel Thunder) and Ryan Lim (Claremont).
WA under-18 captain Walsh was the next best performer behind Yarran in the 20m sprint with 2.97sec., showed elite agility with a time of 7.88sec. and was top three in the beep test.
Kevin Sheehan stated on twitter that Brad Walsh and Ryan Lim both sub 8 seconds for AFL Agility run ; quicker Than anyone this year at Combines ! NabaflU18s

 

[Vindicater]

What are your thoughts on Kyle Langford?

Despite probably needing at least two pre-seasons to build size strength (is he even 80kg?) he looks to me as one of those guys with the real "it" factor. Looks a likely game changer in the future.