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Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

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Panthera said:
Frawley made All-Australian 2010 in a back pocket...hardly ground breaking stuff.

Leuenberger plays in a position where only 1 or 2 players are named AA, not 6 - 8 and is better in his position (when injury free) than Frawley. You can only go off the most recent compensation and that was 2014.

Leuenberger played 20+ games in 2010, 2011 and 2013 and was very very good and his best football could very well be ahead of him.

If he gets 3/4 years @ $500K+, the AFL will need to come up with a solid excuse not to give the same compo as they did 12 months ago to Melbourne.
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Its mainly based around length of contract and $$. Frawley got at least a 5 year around $600k. The AFL has no concern about value perception of players by outsiders and media. Rather it lets the market do the talking, ie value is what the clubs are willing to pay. In this case if Leuenberger gets a similar offer then no doubt pick 2 will be given. I have no idea what the parameters the AFL have put in place in terms of $$ and length of contract are for a round 1 compensation pick (it seems to be a SECRET). But so far its been 5/5+years and $600k/600+. I think Goddard was long term on big $$ as well..
Its wait and see how the clubs value Leuenberger. Maybe the AFL will bend over to assist .Lets face it, its not good for the National comp for QLD clubs to down for to long.
 
Panthera said:
Frawley made All-Australian 2010 in a back pocket...hardly ground breaking stuff.

Leuenberger plays in a position where only 1 or 2 players are named AA, not 6 - 8 and is better in his position (when injury free) than Frawley. You can only go off the most recent compensation and that was 2014.

Leuenberger played 20+ games in 2010, 2011 and 2013 and was very very good and his best football could very well be ahead of him.

If he gets 3/4 years @ $500K+, the AFL will need to come up with a solid excuse not to give the same compo as they did 12 months ago to Melbourne.
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Leuenberger won't sign for as much as Frawley, and given the games he missed last year.

I imagine unless the AFL loses their mind (and they did last year with Frawley and Melbourne) that this discussion will be null, with pick two and even more ludicrous level of compensation than pick three with Frawley last year with Melbourne.

Yoda_ said:
Knightmare- Essendon are genuinely lacking in a lot of areas. One area we haven't covered with quality in recent seasons is a defensive third tall. A guy capable of taking a KPP if needed or to play as a roaming defender of required.

Obviously Francos is a top end choice but should Essendon go Parosh/Weitering/Shacje instead, where could we look to later in the draft? (Thinking 35+)
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Could that man be already in Essendon's list in Steinberg? Or do you not see him as good enough?

If you're looking for another/alternative option late/rookie draft likely an option will present. Maybe in the form of a state leaguer.

Jack Watson would be very suitable for the role you are describing and may be available as a rookie and certainly should be there 35+.
 
Vindicater said:
Steinberg is the worst player in the AFL so no, not an option.
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Steinberg I've only tracked at VFL level. And at VFL level he was excellent by the standards of that competition.

With Essendon, I've tuned out since the bye with the team pretty much giving up on the season. So I have mostly ignored what Essendon have done of late, with my interest on those teams not inside the bottom four since the bye.
 

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Knightmare said:
Could that man be already in Essendon's list in Steinberg? Or do you not see him as good enough?

If you're looking for another/alternative option late/rookie draft likely an option will present. Maybe in the form of a state leaguer.

Jack Watson would be very suitable for the role you are describing and may be available as a rookie and certainly should be there 35+.
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Just think we have overshadowed ourselves with what we have and what we need. We have struggled for a large period of time with a third defensive tall. Luke Davis, Dylan Van Unen, Kyle Hardingham, Tyson Slattery, Sean Gregory and the aforementioned Ariel Steinberg have all been drafted in the last 5 years as third defensive talks and have all 'failed' (per say).

With Fletcher gone, Gwilt getting on and Steinberg showing his flaws more than his ability it's a real cause for concern for me.

I've brought him up before but one guy I really like the sound of is Daniel Capiron. Do you still see him as a late round prospect? I'd happily take him with our 3rd pick (40 - 46ish).

A lot of Essendon supporters will suggest we are light on with midfielders and hence we need to go to the draft. Mids, mids, mids..

I don't think it's that obvious. We do have a glaring hole in our ruck and KPP departments but for the rest, we are short of outside run and utility sorts (back or forward). Should we only have the one pick inside the top 10 (we are all hopeful that should we be gutted we can nab ourselves one, if not two other first round draft picks).

If we can't snare extra picks we'll
More than likely take best available and of that is Francis, so be it but feel Parish suits our needs more even after everything I've said.
 
blueiris said:
Terry Wallace thinks we could have picks 1 and 2 after we get a compo pick for Leuenberger and taking Wietering and Schache
So our draft could look like this
1 Wietering
2 Schache
12. Keays
19 Hipwood
What do you think any chance we could pull this off.
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If you do, you will be pulling something else off !!!
 
I think Mitch Brown and Michael Hartley should be on our radar.
 
Yoda_ said:
Just think we have overshadowed ourselves with what we have and what we need. We have struggled for a large period of time with a third defensive tall. Luke Davis, Dylan Van Unen, Kyle Hardingham, Tyson Slattery, Sean Gregory and the aforementioned Ariel Steinberg have all been drafted in the last 5 years as third defensive talks and have all 'failed' (per say).

With Fletcher gone, Gwilt getting on and Steinberg showing his flaws more than his ability it's a real cause for concern for me.

I've brought him up before but one guy I really like the sound of is Daniel Capiron. Do you still see him as a late round prospect? I'd happily take him with our 3rd pick (40 - 46ish).

A lot of Essendon supporters will suggest we are light on with midfielders and hence we need to go to the draft. Mids, mids, mids..

I don't think it's that obvious. We do have a glaring hole in our ruck and KPP departments but for the rest, we are short of outside run and utility sorts (back or forward). Should we only have the one pick inside the top 10 (we are all hopeful that should we be gutted we can nab ourselves one, if not two other first round draft picks).

If we can't snare extra picks we'll
More than likely take best available and of that is Francis, so be it but feel Parish suits our needs more even after everything I've said.
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I don't know if Capiron is playing on key position players. But he is a good mid-sizer who has done well stepping up to VFL level and performing just as well as he was in the TAC Cup.

Francis probably isn't available to Essendon anyway, likely going before Parish, or so I'd guess.

Get either and it's a good first round for Essendon.

eth-dog said:
I think Mitch Brown and Michael Hartley should be on our radar.
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They're both on my radar and in my updated power rankings (see page one).

Brown looks set to get selected again. Hartley also is seen as in the mix and in with a chance. I agree that both would be strong selections, with both AFL ready.

Will later in the week also update my phantom to reflect the current ladder order. Movement will be slight, but none the less as always a few new names and some movement here and there.
 
Bulldogsnm1 said:
Hey Knightmare, do yourself a favor, you need to have a re-think on Nick Coughlan, he has been super impressive when playing at Footscray.
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Coughlan as per my updated power rankings is inside my top 50 power rankings, and was prior to my update also.

Interestingly Coughlan only received a state combine invite. So only a select few clubs are interested.

He has looked good down back this season after mostly playing forward last season.

He is someone for me who could go either way. But as a key defender, he has enough scope to develop that he may just make it at AFL level.
 
Ben Drever said:
Knightmare your thoughts on Forward Karl Brown?
Averaging more goals the Schache
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Brown is a big body and can take a contested grab. Scoreboard impact good.

Has had his weight and injury issues. Doesn't look super fit out there and his movement isn't great.

So I'm looking at Brown more as someone I'd want developing in a state league program being considering as an AFL prospect.
 

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Knightmare I believe the dogs should trade to get into this draft early

Hrovatt and Roberts have currency at the moment maybe for picks between 20-30 to the right clubs then we could have picks say around 11,22,25,29 this is as far as this draft depth wise is...

McKay
Bonner
Parsons
Crocker

That would be a great draft for us...Thoughts
 
I'm interviewing Jacob Weitering tomorrow night, anyone want any questions answered?
 
What's the likelihood of Chol and/or William getting picked up either by the Lions or just in general? I think it was asked a few pages back, but wondering if anything new has come up.

Wouldn't mind the Suns picking either of them up if they fall to a lower draft pick or even the rookie draft, being both QLD boys.
 

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McCraeBF said:
Knightmare I believe the dogs should trade to get into this draft early

Hrovatt and Roberts have currency at the moment maybe for picks between 20-30 to the right clubs then we could have picks say around 11,22,25,29 this is as far as this draft depth wise is...

McKay
Bonner
Parsons
Crocker

That would be a great draft for us...Thoughts
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Fletch has re-signed for 2 years.
 
TBellicious said:
Knightmare Can you please tell me a bit about Jarrod Berry, looks like he had a pretty good carnival. Thanks in advance.
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Berry is another year off being draft eligible. But early signs terrific.

He is an exceptionally high production back flanker, finding the footy in bunches. Excellent ball user. Can take his share of intercept marks but mostly is a primary option coming out of the back half.

He'd be a first round selection pick if the draft was today.

McCraeBF said:
Knightmare I believe the dogs should trade to get into this draft early

Hrovatt and Roberts have currency at the moment maybe for picks between 20-30 to the right clubs then we could have picks say around 11,22,25,29 this is as far as this draft depth wise is...

McKay
Bonner
Parsons
Crocker

That would be a great draft for us...Thoughts
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Hrovat and Roberts more likely would be attracting picks in the 30-40 range this year.

Picks inside the top 25 certainly will be valued this year. But Hrovat and Roberts won't attract any picks in that range and likely don't have great value, even in a shallow draft.

Pykie said:
I'm interviewing Jacob Weitering tomorrow night, anyone want any questions answered?
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Who he models his game around/looks up to would be interesting to know.

His view on who he thinks is the second best player in the draft, and who he feels recruiters are sleeping on and should be looking at also would be interesting.
I can only imagine it would be interesting to hear from a players perspective what they think about some of the other players.

Experimental said:
What's the likelihood of Chol and/or William getting picked up either by the Lions or just in general? I think it was asked a few pages back, but wondering if anything new has come up.

Wouldn't mind the Suns picking either of them up if they fall to a lower draft pick or even the rookie draft, being both QLD boys.
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Chol and/or William are chances to get picked up by Brisbane. Just with so many good academy players they can get and other picks. It's not so assured.

Both were invited to the national combine. So both are serious considerations for a number of teams. It may turn out that either/or/both end up on other team lists, with Brisbane just not willing to make more list room for them.

If you want rough percentages without having such a clear idea of what recruiters are thinking. My best guess would be:
30% Brisbane.
30% Somewhere else.
40% undrafted.
 
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