Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[HedgeFund]

Interesting reply. Earlier in the season a Cannons player was criticised for exactly what you have said. Don't worry about not touching the ball just stop the opposition from kicking goals.

That’s not exactly what I said.

Your example was being discussed as a player being purely a defensive stopper on opposition small forwards.

My example is a player who, in addition to that (and getting 15-20 touches as a defender) directs traffic, blocks, runs to open up space for team-mates, etc. He often beat his player by getting the ball anyhow.

IMO that’s why Collingwood grabbed him with their second selection (and by all reports would have used their first but for Stephenson being available).

Not saying Brookes wouldn’t have done some of those things as well, but we are “comparing apples and oranges” here.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Knightmare a few years ago you've rated Carlton's young players pretty poorly, I didn't appreciate it at the time, but now in hindsight it was a very accurate assessment...
How do you rate our young players now? Can you give your assessment.
Thanks in advance

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare a few years ago you've rated Carlton's young players pretty poorly, I didn't appreciate it at the time, but now in hindsight it was a very accurate assessment...
How do you rate our young players now? Can you give your assessment.
Thanks in advance

Carlton are developing a nice young core now, one of the better young cores league-wide. GWS have a clearly better young core. Otherwise, Carlton are in the conversation with Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane and Gold Coast off the top of my head as those other clubs with a fair group of high quality young players.

Cripps is a star. So is Docherty.

Weitering if used down back can be the best key defender in the game if things go right. Paddy Dow can develop into a high level mid. SPS I don't expect will become elite, but I feel he'll be very good - excellent. Charlie Curnow can be very good - excellent. Caleb Marchbank is a very good-excellent key defender. Lachie Plowman is very good down back. Matthew Kennedy I really like as a midfielder if he can get the minutes on the ball, he could be anything and was a great get for mine through the trade period.

Lochie O'Brien should develop into a best 22 player and can be a good-very good outside type. Tom Williamson is good and looks like a long term player. Jack Silvagni is likely to be a long term player, but a just good KPP/3rd tall.

Harry McKay is a chance to develop as he has some contested marking capabilities. He'll take another two years at least to develop before we know who he can become. Zac Fisher has good long term chances but is more a 15-25 on list type. Ciaran Byrne is one who has a chance to be a long term role player depending on future options who come through. Angus Schumacher is a plausible shot to make the grade and may be the better of Carlton's picks outside the top 10. David Cuningham has chances to develop having some attributes but production has been underwhelming and may just be a fringe player.

Jarrod Garlett has the attributes to make it but is only a chance with his production in the WAFL not where it needs to be, with improvement needed. Jarrod Pickett still has chances to develop but while talented still needs to do much more than he is presently doing for an AFL career. Nick Graham is depth for mine now that some better young mids are coming in. Darcy Lang is another depth type who only is best 22 if midfield or front half isn't great. Harrison Macreadie I view as a further depth player and don't believe will be prolific enough at either end to be a long term piece who will be built around. Pat Kerr I don't believe will make it and will go at the end of next year. Tom De Koning I don't believe makes the grade either with his marking a liability.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Carlton are developing a nice young core now, one of the better young cores league-wide. GWS have a clearly better young core. Otherwise, Carlton are in the conversation with Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane and Gold Coast off the top of my head as those other clubs with a fair group of high quality young players.

Cripps is a star. So is Docherty.

Weitering if used down back can be the best key defender in the game if things go right. Paddy Dow can develop into a high level mid. SPS I don't expect will become elite, but I feel he'll be good-very good. Charlie Curnow can be very good - excellent. Caleb Marchbank is a very good-excellent key defender. Lachie Plowman is very good down back. Matthew Kennedy I really like as a midfielder if he can get the minutes on the ball, he could be anything and was a great get for mine through the trade period.

Lochie O'Brien should develop into a best 22 player and can be a good-very good outside type. Tom Williamson is good and looks like a long term player. Jack Silvagni is likely to be a long term player, but a just good KPP/3rd tall.

Harry McKay is a chance to develop as he has some contested marking capabilities. He'll take another two years at least to develop before we know who he can become. Zac Fisher has good long term chances but is more a 15-25 on list type. Ciaran Byrne is one who has a chance to be a long term role player depending on future options who come through. Angus Schumacher is a plausible shot to make the grade and may be the better of Carlton's picks outside the top 10. David Cuningham has chances to develop having some attributes but production has been underwhelming and may just be a fringe player.

Jarrod Garlett has the attributes to make it but is only a chance with his production in the WAFL not where it needs to be, with improvement needed. Jarrod Pickett still has chances to develop but while talented still needs to do much more than he is presently doing for an AFL career. Nick Graham is depth for mine now that some better young mids are coming in. Darcy Lang is another depth type who only is best 22 if midfield or front half isn't great. Harrison Macreadie I view as a further depth player and don't believe will be prolific enough at either end to be a long term piece who will be built around. Pat Kerr I don't believe will make it and will go at the end of next year. Tom De Koning I don't believe makes the grade either with his marking a liability.

Thanks for that - much less bias than my own assessment
After the massive clean-out that we've had in the last 3 years, there is certainly a lot to look forward to - as big Kev said "I'm excited!"

 

[Newatthis]

That’s not exactly what I said.

Your example was being discussed as a player being purely a defensive stopper on opposition small forwards.

My example is a player who, in addition to that (and getting 15-20 touches as a defender) directs traffic, blocks, runs to open up space for team-mates, etc. He often beat his player by getting the ball anyhow.

IMO that’s why Collingwood grabbed him with their second selection (and by all reports would have used their first but for Stephenson being available).

Not saying Brookes wouldn’t have done some of those things as well, but we are “comparing apples and oranges” here.

I'll accept that explanation. My point was also around the orders some players are given. Even though some on here say they don't do that in TAC Cup. You can see in some games they clearly do.
Great work throughout the year.

 

[Sector 7G]

Carlton are developing a nice young core now, one of the better young cores league-wide. GWS have a clearly better young core. Otherwise, Carlton are in the conversation with Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane and Gold Coast off the top of my head as those other clubs with a fair group of high quality young players.

Cripps is a star. So is Docherty.

Weitering if used down back can be the best key defender in the game if things go right. Paddy Dow can develop into a high level mid. SPS I don't expect will become elite, but I feel he'll be very good - excellent. Charlie Curnow can be very good - excellent. Caleb Marchbank is a very good-excellent key defender. Lachie Plowman is very good down back. Matthew Kennedy I really like as a midfielder if he can get the minutes on the ball, he could be anything and was a great get for mine through the trade period.

Lochie O'Brien should develop into a best 22 player and can be a good-very good outside type. Tom Williamson is good and looks like a long term player. Jack Silvagni is likely to be a long term player, but a just good KPP/3rd tall.

Harry McKay is a chance to develop as he has some contested marking capabilities. He'll take another two years at least to develop before we know who he can become. Zac Fisher has good long term chances but is more a 15-25 on list type. Ciaran Byrne is one who has a chance to be a long term role player depending on future options who come through. Angus Schumacher is a plausible shot to make the grade and may be the better of Carlton's picks outside the top 10. David Cuningham has chances to develop having some attributes but production has been underwhelming and may just be a fringe player.

Jarrod Garlett has the attributes to make it but is only a chance with his production in the WAFL not where it needs to be, with improvement needed. Jarrod Pickett still has chances to develop but while talented still needs to do much more than he is presently doing for an AFL career. Nick Graham is depth for mine now that some better young mids are coming in. Darcy Lang is another depth type who only is best 22 if midfield or front half isn't great. Harrison Macreadie I view as a further depth player and don't believe will be prolific enough at either end to be a long term piece who will be built around. Pat Kerr I don't believe will make it and will go at the end of next year. Tom De Koning I don't believe makes the grade either with his marking a liability.

Surely you are having a laugh including Collingwood in the list of teams with good young talent.

 

[THE_GUN]

Carlton are developing a nice young core now, one of the better young cores league-wide. GWS have a clearly better young core. Otherwise, Carlton are in the conversation with Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane and Gold Coast off the top of my head as those other clubs with a fair group of high quality young players.

Cripps is a star. So is Docherty.

Weitering if used down back can be the best key defender in the game if things go right. Paddy Dow can develop into a high level mid. SPS I don't expect will become elite, but I feel he'll be very good - excellent. Charlie Curnow can be very good - excellent. Caleb Marchbank is a very good-excellent key defender. Lachie Plowman is very good down back. Matthew Kennedy I really like as a midfielder if he can get the minutes on the ball, he could be anything and was a great get for mine through the trade period.

Lochie O'Brien should develop into a best 22 player and can be a good-very good outside type. Tom Williamson is good and looks like a long term player. Jack Silvagni is likely to be a long term player, but a just good KPP/3rd tall.

Harry McKay is a chance to develop as he has some contested marking capabilities. He'll take another two years at least to develop before we know who he can become. Zac Fisher has good long term chances but is more a 15-25 on list type. Ciaran Byrne is one who has a chance to be a long term role player depending on future options who come through. Angus Schumacher is a plausible shot to make the grade and may be the better of Carlton's picks outside the top 10. David Cuningham has chances to develop having some attributes but production has been underwhelming and may just be a fringe player.

Jarrod Garlett has the attributes to make it but is only a chance with his production in the WAFL not where it needs to be, with improvement needed. Jarrod Pickett still has chances to develop but while talented still needs to do much more than he is presently doing for an AFL career. Nick Graham is depth for mine now that some better young mids are coming in. Darcy Lang is another depth type who only is best 22 if midfield or front half isn't great. Harrison Macreadie I view as a further depth player and don't believe will be prolific enough at either end to be a long term piece who will be built around. Pat Kerr I don't believe will make it and will go at the end of next year. Tom De Koning I don't believe makes the grade either with his marking a liability.

Looks like you dont rate Richmond's list at all after mentioning 7 'Young' List in Collingwood,Essendon included in the 7 teams but the Premiers with 4 new players in the draft rated in the top 30 and one of the youngest sides couldnt make that list.

 

[Knightmare]

Surely you are having a laugh including Collingwood in the list of teams with good young talent.

It depends on where you are drawing the line with young.

In the Carlton example I assessed young as being born 1993 and later.

Given that, Collingwood have: Jordan De Goey, Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Tom Langdon, Matthew Scharenberg, Taylor Adams, James Aish, Callum Brown, Tom Phillips, Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos, Kayle Kirby, Tim Broomhead, Darcy Moore, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Rupert Wills, Sam McLarty, Brayden Maynard, Ben Crocker, Josh Smith, Sam Murray, Jaidyn Stephenson, Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown, Flynn Appleby and Brody Mihocek.

That's a strong group in that age group.

Brayden Sier and Max Lynch are two I don't see making it.

Sam McLarty is slightly against the odds (although an early call), Josh Smith is depth for mine, James Aish is depth unless he has a breakout season. Rupert Wills, Ben Crocker. Brody Mihocek are capable depth. Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown and Flynn Appleby are all potentially developable. Likewise Josh Daicos.

The others are looking the goods. Brodie Grundy is the best young ruckman in the game. Treloar and Adams among the best mids. De Goey is very good. Scharenberg's numbers are comparable to Jake Lever which is impressive for his first full season, if he stays healthy, he will have a very strong career. Maynard down back is very good and can take that next step and in time may get midfield minutes. Darcy Moore has the scope to be a very good KPP/ruckman - I don't view him as a future superstar with some mild injury questionmarks and average production to this point despite attributes shown. Jaidyn Stephenson can be good. Tom Phillips is a good-very good wing/hf who can keep improving. Sam Murray should be a regular and has the scope to be best 22 and add drive off hb. Tom Langdon is best 22 and a very good intercepter. Will Hoskin-Elliott is capable best 22 without being a star. Tim Broomhead has best 22 chances if he can become more consistent and stay healthy. Kayle Kirby has best 22 chances if he improves his fitness, VFL stuff was excellent in year one. Jack Crisp is just inside the best 22 and is good enough. Callum Brown is developable.

--
While I rate Collingwood's youth reasonably highly, as I long have, the issue of player development after four years in Collingwood's system, the rapid decline of the majority of players in their late 20s and as soon as they hit 30, in addition to a poor group of KPPs, likely see Collingwood again miss the top 8 in 2018 with an 11-15 finish around my prediction at this point.

A fair assessment? That's how I see Collingwood.

Looks like you dont rate Richmond's list at all after mentioning 7 'Young' List in Collingwood,Essendon included in the 7 teams but the Premiers with 4 new players in the draft rated in the top 30 and one of the youngest sides couldnt make that list.

I don't view Richmond's list as one of the best lists in the competition (the premiership was won on the back of supreme list health and crowd energy and enthusiasm that fuelled Richmond's run in a similar though more extreme way than Collingwood's 2010 premiership).

Richmond are such a unique team. One or two key injuries and Richmond can't win a game (see pre-2017 when Deledio missed games record v when he played) but get that completely list healthy through that best 22 players as per this year, and Richmond can get hot and stay hot.

I also don't regard Richmond's youth in the better half as was implied by my exclusion of Richmond from those teams I was regarding as having among the better young in the competition to understand that it is Richmond's experience rather than youth that wins games for Richmond.

In terms of youth (again following the same as previously limiting youth to 1993 and younger). Nankervis (1994) is the only Richmond player rated inside the top 200 players in the AFL.com overall player standings. There is a lack of star power from the clubs youth. Rioli can be very good and is tracking very well. Jack Graham had a promising debut season and Shai Bolton is developable. I liked the way Richmond drafted with Higgins an immediate player, Balta who could be anything and Coleman-Jones who is a potentially developable forward/ruckman. Otherwise I'm not loving Richmond's youth with a lot of role players and lower level contributors.

It takes going through list by list to realise that Richmond have among the worst youth in the competition. West Coast, Geelong, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney all are also thin on good youth and are in that conversation, with West Coast probably that worst ranking of that group for youth.

Comments suggesting a club lacks good youth should not be taken as offensive. Many of the best teams and most likely contenders tend not to have much in the way of good youth. And flags rarely are won as a result of youth, with (developed) men generally winning you games, with young players tending to lack consistency.

 

[THE_GUN]

It depends on where you are drawing the line with young.

In the Carlton example I assessed young as being born 1993 and later.

Given that, Collingwood have: Jordan De Goey, Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Tom Langdon, Matthew Scharenberg, Taylor Adams, James Aish, Callum Brown, Tom Phillips, Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos, Kayle Kirby, Tim Broomhead, Darcy Moore, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Rupert Wills, Sam McLarty, Brayden Maynard, Ben Crocker, Josh Smith, Sam Murray, Jaidyn Stephenson, Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown, Flynn Appleby and Brody Mihocek.

That's a strong group in that age group.

Brayden Sier and Max Lynch are two I don't see making it.

Sam McLarty is slightly against the odds (although an early call), Josh Smith is depth for mine, James Aish is depth unless he has a breakout season. Rupert Wills, Ben Crocker. Brody Mihocek are capable depth. Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown and Flynn Appleby are all potentially developable. Likewise Josh Daicos.

The others are looking the goods. Brodie Grundy is the best young ruckman in the game. Treloar and Adams among the best mids. De Goey is very good. Scharenberg's numbers are comparable to Jake Lever which is impressive for his first full season, if he stays healthy, he will have a very strong career. Maynard down back is very good and can take that next step and in time may get midfield minutes. Darcy Moore has the scope to be a very good KPP/ruckman - I don't view him as a future superstar with some mild injury questionmarks and average production to this point despite attributes shown. Jaidyn Stephenson can be good. Tom Phillips is a good-very good wing/hf who can keep improving. Sam Murray should be a regular and has the scope to be best 22 and add drive off hb. Tom Langdon is best 22 and a very good intercepter. Will Hoskin-Elliott is capable best 22 without being a star. Tim Broomhead has best 22 chances if he can become more consistent and stay healthy. Kayle Kirby has best 22 chances if he improves his fitness, VFL stuff was excellent in year one. Jack Crisp is just inside the best 22 and is good enough. Callum Brown is developable.

--
While I rate Collingwood's youth reasonably highly, as I long have, the issue of player development after four years in Collingwood's system, the rapid decline of the majority of players in their late 20s and as soon as they hit 30, in addition to a poor group of KPPs, likely see Collingwood again miss the top 8 in 2018 with an 11-15 finish around my prediction at this point.

A fair assessment? That's how I see Collingwood.



I don't view Richmond's list as one of the best lists in the competition (the premiership was won on the back of supreme list health and crowd energy and enthusiasm that fuelled Richmond's run in a similar though more extreme way than Collingwood's 2010 premiership).

Richmond are such a unique team. One or two key injuries and Richmond can't win a game (see pre-2017 when Deledio missed games record v when he played) but get that completely list healthy through that best 22 players as per this year, and Richmond can get hot and stay hot.

I also don't regard Richmond's youth in the better half as was implied by my exclusion of Richmond from those teams I was regarding as having among the better young in the competition to understand that it is Richmond's experience rather than youth that wins games for Richmond.

In terms of youth (again following the same as previously limiting youth to 1993 and younger). Nankervis (1994) is the only Richmond player rated inside the top 200 players in the AFL.com overall player standings. There is a lack of star power from the clubs youth. Rioli can be very good and is tracking very well. Jack Graham had a promising debut season and Shai Bolton is developable. I liked the way Richmond drafted with Higgins an immediate player, Balta who could be anything and Coleman-Jones who is a potentially developable forward/ruckman. Otherwise I'm not loving Richmond's youth with a lot of role players and lower level contributors.

It takes going through list by list to realise that Richmond have among the worst youth in the competition. West Coast, Geelong, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney all are also thin on good youth and are in that conversation, with West Coast probably that worst ranking of that group for youth.

Comments suggesting a club lacks good youth should not be taken as offensive. Many of the best teams and most likely contenders tend not to have much in the way of good youth. And flags rarely are won as a result of youth, with (developed) men generally winning you games, with young players tending to lack consistency.

The there is the question on what is good youth ?

Richmond were extremely lucky with their injuries this year and were able to field a consistent team but still used 38 players during the year and blooded a few youngsters. But at the same time what that does is not give your youth game time in the seniors and these kids play vfl

Just to name some young players who have had good years in the VFL but no enough exposure at AFL which dont get a mention
Markov,Menadue,Short,Garthwaite,Moore,Stengle along with the names already mentioned in Bolton,Graham,Rioli,Butler etc.

When you take into account that Richmond played with no many injuries and the Youth at the club played in the VFL , Richmonds youth made the VFL grand final and only lost by a kick and should have won it after the siren and dominated their finals series just to be pipped

Wouldn't you say that would be a good indication to a teams youth and depth when they also dominate the finals with young players at the lower level ? Then bring in 4 top 30 kids to top that off ?

 

[Knightmare]

The there is the question on what is good youth ?

Richmond were extremely lucky with their injuries this year and were able to field a consistent team but still used 38 players during the year and blooded a few youngsters. But at the same time what that does is not give your youth game time in the seniors and these kids play vfl

Just to name some young players who have had good years in the VFL but no enough exposure at AFL which dont get a mention
Markov,Menadue,Short,Garthwaite,Moore,Stengle along with the names already mentioned in Bolton,Graham,Rioli,Butler etc.

When you take into account that Richmond played with no many injuries and the Youth at the club played in the VFL , Richmonds youth made the VFL grand final and only lost by a kick and should have won it after the siren and dominated their finals series just to be pipped

Wouldn't you say that would be a good indication to a teams youth and depth when they also dominate the finals with young players at the lower level ? Then bring in 4 top 30 kids to top that off ?

Richmond's VFL side went well on the back of a fully healthy list + Sam Darley who at that level is handy.

Watching Richmond's Grand Final live. There was only one player who looked AFL standard. Shai Bolton. He had an absolutely insane first quarter. He did die off, but just for that period influencing the game as he did. He can be very good.

Otherwise as I said before, those other guys are role players who can fit into a team, but aren't the driving forces for the future who win you games each week. Markov is an athlete who can have the odd good moment, he can be a role player. Menadue can have some great moments with his acceleration and evasion, but needs to win more of it in the contest or he won't make the grade. Short is another who doesn't do enough, often enough and probably doesn't make it. Garthwaite is possibly developable as a role player down back. Moore probably doesn't make the grade. Stengle is a possible role playing forward, though with Bolton developing and Higgins coming in, it's hard to see him being more than depth.

Butler and Castagna are limited role playing forwards. Graham has his limitations also with his kicking and isn't perfect either but has better best 22 chances long term. Bolton can develop and has more than enough tricks and can have an impact.

 

[THE_GUN]

Richmond's VFL side went well on the back of a fully healthy list + Sam Darley who at that level is handy.

Watching Richmond's Grand Final live. There was only one player who looked AFL standard. Shai Bolton. He had an absolutely insane first quarter. He did die off, but just for that period influencing the game as he did. He can be very good.

Otherwise as I said before, those other guys are role players who can fit into a team, but aren't the driving forces for the future who win you games each week. Markov is an athlete who can have the odd good moment, he can be a role player. Menadue can have some great moments with his acceleration and evasion, but needs to win more of it in the contest or he won't make the grade. Short is another who doesn't do enough, often enough and probably doesn't make it. Garthwaite is possibly developable as a role player down back. Moore probably doesn't make the grade. Stengle is a possible role playing forward, though with Bolton developing and Higgins coming in, it's hard to see him being more than depth.

Butler and Castagna are limited role playing forwards. Graham has his limitations also with his kicking and isn't perfect either but has better best 22 chances long term. Bolton can develop and has more than enough tricks and can have an impact.

LOL you could make the same comments about just about every team in the comp mate, All these players with all their flaws making the AFL/VFL grand finals doesnt happen without talent.

Think you have under sold the richmond your by a fair margin here, Richmond played a very young team in the AFL and won the flag then their even younger and less developed VFL team made and should have won the VFL flag - This doesnt just happen with average players that may or may not make it

Time will tell but im thinking that Richmonds youth in Bolton,Markov,Naish,Balta,Higgins,C.Ellis,Moore etc will all be given more credit in 12 months time
I have watched these kids at VFL level out perform many high draft picks during 2017 and when you are on the ground your TAC and draft numbers dont mean much.

Cheers mate

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Seeing all this young player talk makes me feel old at 26 years old, the same age as David Mirra who was the oldest first time draftee this off-season is.

 

[6yearsold]

It depends on where you are drawing the line with young.

In the Carlton example I assessed young as being born 1993 and later.

Given that, Collingwood have: Jordan De Goey, Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Tom Langdon, Matthew Scharenberg, Taylor Adams, James Aish, Callum Brown, Tom Phillips, Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos, Kayle Kirby, Tim Broomhead, Darcy Moore, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Rupert Wills, Sam McLarty, Brayden Maynard, Ben Crocker, Josh Smith, Sam Murray, Jaidyn Stephenson, Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown, Flynn Appleby and Brody Mihocek.

That's a strong group in that age group.

Brayden Sier and Max Lynch are two I don't see making it.

Sam McLarty is slightly against the odds (although an early call), Josh Smith is depth for mine, James Aish is depth unless he has a breakout season. Rupert Wills, Ben Crocker. Brody Mihocek are capable depth. Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown and Flynn Appleby are all potentially developable. Likewise Josh Daicos.

The others are looking the goods. Brodie Grundy is the best young ruckman in the game. Treloar and Adams among the best mids. De Goey is very good. Scharenberg's numbers are comparable to Jake Lever which is impressive for his first full season, if he stays healthy, he will have a very strong career. Maynard down back is very good and can take that next step and in time may get midfield minutes. Darcy Moore has the scope to be a very good KPP/ruckman - I don't view him as a future superstar with some mild injury questionmarks and average production to this point despite attributes shown. Jaidyn Stephenson can be good. Tom Phillips is a good-very good wing/hf who can keep improving. Sam Murray should be a regular and has the scope to be best 22 and add drive off hb. Tom Langdon is best 22 and a very good intercepter. Will Hoskin-Elliott is capable best 22 without being a star. Tim Broomhead has best 22 chances if he can become more consistent and stay healthy. Kayle Kirby has best 22 chances if he improves his fitness, VFL stuff was excellent in year one. Jack Crisp is just inside the best 22 and is good enough. Callum Brown is developable.

--
While I rate Collingwood's youth reasonably highly, as I long have, the issue of player development after four years in Collingwood's system, the rapid decline of the majority of players in their late 20s and as soon as they hit 30, in addition to a poor group of KPPs, likely see Collingwood again miss the top 8 in 2018 with an 11-15 finish around my prediction at this point.

A fair assessment? That's how I see Collingwood.



I don't view Richmond's list as one of the best lists in the competition (the premiership was won on the back of supreme list health and crowd energy and enthusiasm that fuelled Richmond's run in a similar though more extreme way than Collingwood's 2010 premiership).

Richmond are such a unique team. One or two key injuries and Richmond can't win a game (see pre-2017 when Deledio missed games record v when he played) but get that completely list healthy through that best 22 players as per this year, and Richmond can get hot and stay hot.

I also don't regard Richmond's youth in the better half as was implied by my exclusion of Richmond from those teams I was regarding as having among the better young in the competition to understand that it is Richmond's experience rather than youth that wins games for Richmond.

In terms of youth (again following the same as previously limiting youth to 1993 and younger). Nankervis (1994) is the only Richmond player rated inside the top 200 players in the AFL.com overall player standings. There is a lack of star power from the clubs youth. Rioli can be very good and is tracking very well. Jack Graham had a promising debut season and Shai Bolton is developable. I liked the way Richmond drafted with Higgins an immediate player, Balta who could be anything and Coleman-Jones who is a potentially developable forward/ruckman. Otherwise I'm not loving Richmond's youth with a lot of role players and lower level contributors.

It takes going through list by list to realise that Richmond have among the worst youth in the competition. West Coast, Geelong, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney all are also thin on good youth and are in that conversation, with West Coast probably that worst ranking of that group for youth.

Comments suggesting a club lacks good youth should not be taken as offensive. Many of the best teams and most likely contenders tend not to have much in the way of good youth. And flags rarely are won as a result of youth, with (developed) men generally winning you games, with young players tending to lack consistency.

you seem to give a very fair assessment when it comes to most teams and players except collingwood.

if taylor adams is one of the best mids in the comp we don't watch the same game.

the disposal of adams and treloar is always going to be a massive problem for collingwood.

i would not swap heeney or mills for either of those butcher boys. i guess that makes our youth thin.

 

[Sector 7G]

It depends on where you are drawing the line with young.

In the Carlton example I assessed young as being born 1993 and later.

Given that, Collingwood have: Jordan De Goey, Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Tom Langdon, Matthew Scharenberg, Taylor Adams, James Aish, Callum Brown, Tom Phillips, Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos, Kayle Kirby, Tim Broomhead, Darcy Moore, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Rupert Wills, Sam McLarty, Brayden Maynard, Ben Crocker, Josh Smith, Sam Murray, Jaidyn Stephenson, Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown, Flynn Appleby and Brody Mihocek.

That's a strong group in that age group.

Brayden Sier and Max Lynch are two I don't see making it.

Sam McLarty is slightly against the odds (although an early call), Josh Smith is depth for mine, James Aish is depth unless he has a breakout season. Rupert Wills, Ben Crocker. Brody Mihocek are capable depth. Nathan Murphy, Tyler Brown and Flynn Appleby are all potentially developable. Likewise Josh Daicos.

The others are looking the goods. Brodie Grundy is the best young ruckman in the game. Treloar and Adams among the best mids. De Goey is very good. Scharenberg's numbers are comparable to Jake Lever which is impressive for his first full season, if he stays healthy, he will have a very strong career. Maynard down back is very good and can take that next step and in time may get midfield minutes. Darcy Moore has the scope to be a very good KPP/ruckman - I don't view him as a future superstar with some mild injury questionmarks and average production to this point despite attributes shown. Jaidyn Stephenson can be good. Tom Phillips is a good-very good wing/hf who can keep improving. Sam Murray should be a regular and has the scope to be best 22 and add drive off hb. Tom Langdon is best 22 and a very good intercepter. Will Hoskin-Elliott is capable best 22 without being a star. Tim Broomhead has best 22 chances if he can become more consistent and stay healthy. Kayle Kirby has best 22 chances if he improves his fitness, VFL stuff was excellent in year one. Jack Crisp is just inside the best 22 and is good enough. Callum Brown is developable.

-

I wouldn't consider players that turn 25 next year as young, as generally you have seen the best of what they can deliver and they just add consistency.
That takes out TA,AT,JC,and WHE
Grundy is a good young ruck who was AFL in his first year but I don't think he will be a match winner.
DeGoey showed promising signs he can become elite
Moore has had his moments and may become elite but has a lot of underwhelming performances.
Scharenburg showed some positive signs but I would need to see more than the 10 games this year to be as bullish on him especially given his track record with injuries.
Stephenson I like as a draftee, but we will need to see if he like all draftees can step up.
After that the lack of early draft picks is showing in the level of class from the young players and the Pies are relying on a lot of hope.

Guess we all see things differently

 

[Lsta062]

Richmond are such a unique team. One or two key injuries and Richmond can't win a game (see pre-2017 when Deledio missed games record v when he played) but get that completely list healthy through that best 22 players as per this year, and Richmond can get hot and stay hot.

I also don't regard Richmond's youth in the better half as was implied by my exclusion of Richmond from those teams I was regarding as having among the better young in the competition to understand that it is Richmond's experience rather than youth that wins games for Richmond.

In terms of youth (again following the same as previously limiting youth to 1993 and younger). Nankervis (1994) is the only Richmond player rated inside the top 200 players in the AFL.com overall player standings. There is a lack of star power from the clubs youth. Rioli can be very good and is tracking very well. Jack Graham had a promising debut season and Shai Bolton is developable. I liked the way Richmond drafted with Higgins an immediate player, Balta who could be anything and Coleman-Jones who is a potentially developable forward/ruckman. Otherwise I'm not loving Richmond's youth with a lot of role players and lower level contributors.

It takes going through list by list to realise that Richmond have among the worst youth in the competition. West Coast, Geelong, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney all are also thin on good youth and are in that conversation, with West Coast probably that worst ranking of that group for youth.

Comments suggesting a club lacks good youth should not be taken as offensive. Many of the best teams and most likely contenders tend not to have much in the way of good youth. And flags rarely are won as a result of youth, with (developed) men generally winning you games, with young players tending to lack consistency.

1. Richmond has only used 1 top 10 pick since 2011. They were a bottom side for most of the GWS and Gold Coast concessions when their pick was pushed back and then launched into the top 8 in 2013. From there, they had regular appearances in the top 8, featuring in 4/5 seasons. This means that they yet again did not have top 10 picks. For those reasons alone, it is understandable that Richmond's youth do not compare to, say, a team who had multiple top 10 picks. Hence, it isn't an insult. I still think they did well for a team that did not have such limited access to top 10 picks for 7 years.

Having said that:
2. I don't think that using the top 200 AFL Players rating is a good indication of where a team's youth is at. Yes, Richmond have only Nankervis in there, but remember that many of Richmond's youth did not have much exposure at AFL level prior to this season. Take Harris Andrews from Brisbane as an example. He is only 20, but he played 58 games. That is more games than even Toby Nankervis, who is older, has played.

From Richmond's Premiership team, we have only Brandon Ellis (ranked 214 in AFL Players rating), Nick Vlastuin (219) and Kamdyn McIntosh (308) that played more than 50 games at AFL level, and McIntosh is at 53 games.

Rioli (43 games played), Butler (23) Castagna (30), Broad (12), Townsend (37) and Graham (5) all had less than 50 games experience at AFL level for their entire careers. All have 200+ rankings in the AFL players rating. My point is not that they will all become stars - it is that the AFL players rating is not necessarily an accurate representation of youth quality. This is because it takes into account data from more than one year if I am not mistaken, and all of these Premiership players from Richmond with sub-50 game experience burst onto the scene this year with the exception of Rioli.

Again, it is not a shame to have one of the worst youth in the league given our circumstances, but we may need to wait and see how many of them go next year (especially the Premiership players) in order to get a real accurate picture on where Richmond's youth sits in the competition. After all, most of them have the 2017 season as their only serious exposure to AFL level.

 

[Knightmare]

LOL you could make the same comments about just about every team in the comp mate, All these players with all their flaws making the AFL/VFL grand finals doesnt happen without talent.

Think you have under sold the richmond your by a fair margin here, Richmond played a very young team in the AFL and won the flag then their even younger and less developed VFL team made and should have won the VFL flag - This doesnt just happen with average players that may or may not make it

Time will tell but im thinking that Richmonds youth in Bolton,Markov,Naish,Balta,Higgins,C.Ellis,Moore etc will all be given more credit in 12 months time
I have watched these kids at VFL level out perform many high draft picks during 2017 and when you are on the ground your TAC and draft numbers dont mean much.

Cheers mate

A lot of those immediate results relate to the position they're playing. Small/medium forwards and midfielders often play earlier on and Richmond have a lot of types who can play right away but don't have high ceilings, with role players for a lot of those who they'll always be.

Seeing all this young player talk makes me feel old at 26 years old, the same age as David Mirra who was the oldest first time draftee this off-season is.

It just shows how short AFL careers are when 26 is old with 23 the average age in the competition.

you seem to give a very fair assessment when it comes to most teams and players except collingwood.

if taylor adams is one of the best mids in the comp we don't watch the same game.

the disposal of adams and treloar is always going to be a massive problem for collingwood.

i would not swap heeney or mills for either of those butcher boys. i guess that makes our youth thin.

I could have been more specific with my regard for Treloar and Adams. I don't regard either as top 10 mids in the game today. Treloar I have top 20. Adams top 30. Agree kicking with the both of them is what holds them back.

Heeney and Mills both have the scope to be better than Treloar and Adams with time. But they aren't until they are. I could say the same of Jordan De Goey, that he also has the scope to be better, but he like Heeney and Mills has more work to go.

Sydney obviously have that projected top end quality through the mids in Heeney and Mills. Zac Jones I'm a big fan of also. Papley is capable. Hayward can develop. Florent probably does also. Probably not as bad a group as first thought. I'd cross Sydney off that list on re-assessment. Sydney shouldn't be in the conversation with those other sides, even though games are won as a result of the clubs veterans.

I wouldn't consider players that turn 25 next year as young, as generally you have seen the best of what they can deliver and they just add consistency.
That takes out TA,AT,JC,and WHE
Grundy is a good young ruck who was AFL in his first year but I don't think he will be a match winner.
DeGoey showed promising signs he can become elite
Moore has had his moments and may become elite but has a lot of underwhelming performances.
Scharenburg showed some positive signs but I would need to see more than the 10 games this year to be as bullish on him especially given his track record with injuries.
Stephenson I like as a draftee, but we will need to see if he like all draftees can step up.
After that the lack of early draft picks is showing in the level of class from the young players and the Pies are relying on a lot of hope.

Guess we all see things differently

I see Grundy as Collingwood's second best player to Pendlebury and the clubs next franchise player. If he can start taking grabs forward of centre and hitting the scoreboard more, he can be the best and most influential ruckman in the game.

With age though, it depends where you draw the line.

With my Carlton review I went with under 25s and just stuck with that in later reviews of sides.

If I was to review the age of what I'd class as young players in the AFL, noting that 23/24 is around the average age, I'd go with those under the age of 23 only (1995 and younger), eliminating those players who aren't in seasons 1-4 which are the big development years typically after which time you tend to have a fair idea of who a player is.

 

[Knightmare]

1. Richmond has only used 1 top 10 pick since 2011. They were a bottom side for most of the GWS and Gold Coast concessions when their pick was pushed back and then launched into the top 8 in 2013. From there, they had regular appearances in the top 8, featuring in 4/5 seasons. This means that they yet again did not have top 10 picks. For those reasons alone, it is understandable that Richmond's youth do not compare to, say, a team who had multiple top 10 picks. Hence, it isn't an insult. I still think they did well for a team that did not have such limited access to top 10 picks for 7 years.

Having said that:
2. I don't think that using the top 200 AFL Players rating is a good indication of where a team's youth is at. Yes, Richmond have only Nankervis in there, but remember that many of Richmond's youth did not have much exposure at AFL level prior to this season. Take Harris Andrews from Brisbane as an example. He is only 20, but he played 58 games. That is more games than even Toby Nankervis, who is older, has played.

From Richmond's Premiership team, we have only Brandon Ellis (ranked 214 in AFL Players rating), Nick Vlastuin (219) and Kamdyn McIntosh (308) that played more than 50 games at AFL level, and McIntosh is at 53 games.

Rioli (43 games played), Butler (23) Castagna (30), Broad (12), Townsend (37) and Graham (5) all had less than 50 games experience at AFL level for their entire careers. All have 200+ rankings in the AFL players rating. My point is not that they will all become stars - it is that the AFL players rating is not necessarily an accurate representation of youth quality. This is because it takes into account data from more than one year if I am not mistaken, and all of these Premiership players from Richmond with sub-50 game experience burst onto the scene this year with the exception of Rioli.

Again, it is not a shame to have one of the worst youth in the league given our circumstances, but we may need to wait and see how many of them go next year (especially the Premiership players) in order to get a real accurate picture on where Richmond's youth sits in the competition. After all, most of them have the 2017 season as their only serious exposure to AFL level.

Your interpretation of the AFL rating system is the right one. Taking data over the past two years, giving great weighting to those who play more games and making it hard for those who miss games or have only played a few to feature highly - with an emphasis on durability.

Some other points about Richmond's drafting while we're on the topic of Richmond, to keep the discussion from getting dreary. Richmond's conversation of top 20 picks has been poor over the last seven years (Rioli - 15 (2015), C.Ellis - 12 (2014), Lennon - 12 (2013), Vlastuin - 9 (2012), B.Ellis - 15 (2011), Reece Conca - 6 (2010). Rioli is the good pick from that group with the others all taken comfortably before where they probably should have featured.

On the positive with Richmond. 2014 onwards is where I've seen the start of a shift in draft strategy and quality of players drafted, with improvement with each season since from the Tigers recruiting team it has felt like.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Seeing all this young player talk makes me feel old at 26 years old, the same age as David Mirra who was the oldest first time draftee this off-season is.

Imagine being involved with draftees over many years. These 18 year-olds I remember scouting are now mid 20s... and mature age recruits are younger than me (27).

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Imagine being involved with draftees over many years. These 18 year-olds I remember scouting are now mid 20s... and mature age recruits are younger than me (27).

It is insane.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

There is this guy by the name of Charlie Thompson who for work rate, running without the footy in support and both ways, on field leadership and instruction is a number one in the draft in each category for mine and featured inside my top 50. Went undrafted.

Think again.

FYI - Will be at Richmond VFL.

 

[Pns_blister]

IMO Collingwood has one of the most unbalanced, talentless lists in the comp. I'm sniffing real spoon potential in 2018

 

[6yearsold]

A lot of those immediate results relate to the position they're playing. Small/medium forwards and midfielders often play earlier on and Richmond have a lot of types who can play right away but don't have high ceilings, with role players for a lot of those who they'll always be.



It just shows how short AFL careers are when 26 is old with 23 the average age in the competition.



I could have been more specific with my regard for Treloar and Adams. I don't regard either as top 10 mids in the game today. Treloar I have top 20. Adams top 30. Agree kicking with the both of them is what holds them back.

Heeney and Mills both have the scope to be better than Treloar and Adams with time. But they aren't until they are. I could say the same of Jordan De Goey, that he also has the scope to be better, but he like Heeney and Mills has more work to go.

Sydney obviously have that projected top end quality through the mids in Heeney and Mills. Zac Jones I'm a big fan of also. Papley is capable. Hayward can develop. Florent probably does also. Probably not as bad a group as first thought. I'd cross Sydney off that list on re-assessment. Sydney shouldn't be in the conversation with those other sides, even though games are won as a result of the clubs veterans.



I see Grundy as Collingwood's second best player to Pendlebury and the clubs next franchise player. If he can start taking grabs forward of centre and hitting the scoreboard more, he can be the best and most influential ruckman in the game.

With age though, it depends where you draw the line.

With my Carlton review I went with under 25s and just stuck with that in later reviews of sides.

If I was to review the age of what I'd class as young players in the AFL, noting that 23/24 is around the average age, I'd go with those under the age of 23 only (1995 and younger), eliminating those players who aren't in seasons 1-4 which are the big development years typically after which time you tend to have a fair idea of who a player is.

de goey is easily collingwoods most talented young player. the worrying thing for collingwood is that he has hardly put together a string of good matches let alone good seasons as i would argue mills, heeney and jones have.

do you have a link to your final power ratings for 2016, as i would be interested to read what you had to say about florent and hayward?

 

[briztoon]

de goey is easily collingwoods most talented young player. the worrying thing for collingwood is that he has hardly put together a string of good matches let alone good seasons as i would argue mills, heeney and jones have.

do you have a link to your final power ratings for 2016, as i would be interested to read what you had to say about florent and hayward?

Link is usually in Knightmare’s signature when on desktop/laptop.

Otherwise it’s 30 seconds scrolling down the page, then trawling back through Knightmare’s 2016 thread. Look for the pre draft date.

 

[HedgeFund]

Link is usually in Knightmare’s signature when on desktop/laptop.

Otherwise it’s 30 seconds scrolling down the page, then trawling back through Knightmare’s 2016 thread. Look for the pre draft date.

His Power Rankings for late November 2016 were:

1. McCluggage
2. McGrath
3. Setterfield
4. Taranto
5. Ainsworth
6. Bowes
7. Perryman
8. Brodie
9. Drew*
10. SPS
11. HAYWARD
12. Powell-P
13. S. Bolton
14. Scrimshaw
15. Venables*
16. Scheer
17. FLORENT
18. Mutch*
19. Z. Fisher
20. D. Clarke*
21. Tiziani*
22. Simpkin
23. J. Berry
24. Witherden
25. Ronke*
26. Romensky#
27. Walker#
28. Garthwaite*
29. D. Watson*
30. Logue

A fair few names there who haven’t yet played AFL (*) and two who unfortunately didn’t even get rookied (#).

 

[SHill Shall]

Sean Darcy surpassed Grundy’s first year record (especially in hit outs and tackles) and has come back to pre season training a completely different body shape. Watch this space!