Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[ringo1]

VFL opportunities are advantageous in speeding up player development. Often when they return to TAC Cup level they come back more confident and you often see a spike in their numbers or quality of play.

I'd like to see greater VFL opportunities afforded to TAC Cup players. Perhaps have the TAC Cup clubs affiliated with the VFL sides and allow those better or more advanced player to play in the VFL. Then maybe you could have a rule of something like - for every four u18s the VFL side has playing, they get an extra u18 on their bench.

It would increase the level of interest in VFL football (with friends and families sure to go along to support some of the u18s) and make it a more relevant competition, while also speeding up the young player development.

Clubs certainly consider strong VFL form. Collingwood as one example, took Kayle Kirby just last year on the back of his strong VFL performances for Richmond's VFL side. Kicking 4 and 5 goals from the two games at that level.

Thanks mate..will watch to see which boys get opportunities and then play well or don't look out of place. Would you think it is as good as platform as Nationals? I like your thoughts about the link between VFL and Tac

 

[CRIPPA9]

Fogarty is no Dangerfield. He doesn't have that level of power and explosion.

He'll play more immediately and be better more immediately if that is your meaning.

I don't see him becoming best in the game great as Danger is though.

Just on that, how good is Fogarty's break away speed from stoppages and explosiveness?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks mate..will watch to see which boys get opportunities and then play well or don't look out of place. Would you think it is as good as platform as Nationals? I like your thoughts about the link between VFL and Tac

Differing competitions so different dynamics.

If you can hold your own in the VFL or another state league, generally that play will translate because at this level as with AFL level you need to be able to perform against men/AFL footballers, often suggesting that you can win your own ball, with a more contested style of game needed to have success at this level relatively.

Performance in the nationals is helpful from the perspective that it helps show where the players fit in direct competition to the next. It's a different game in nationals - you've got unusual rules such as the anti-congestion rules in play during the U18 champs - at each stoppage you need a certain number - either 5/6 inside both your front and back 50m. Some players go better in this style of open games, others are better suited to stoppage fests, so the enforced style of play that is created as a result of the rule results in certainly an advantage to a particular style of player - often more outside types, or high impact/exciting types often have a disproportionate opportunity to impress beyond what they normally would in a normal game.
Ultimately, games at this level, you want to do well and it's great if a player does well. But they're ultimately for me anyway just more games in a sample of the total sum of the games each player plays during the year in the TAC Cup. I just tend to proceed with auction somewhat if a say Lewis Jetta style of player rips it up during the u18s, I'd be looking at them to do the same under the normal rules the rest of the year to feel convinced they can get their hands on the ball often enough, because you'll find a high fail rate of low production/low contested ball winners who feature high in the draft.

As for the TAC Cup. It's the lesser level of competition out of the three, so the expectation is the better players dominate all the time at this level. With the greatest number of games generally played at this level of the Victorians anyway, their numbers often from this level are the most useful for getting a feel for whether a player is a low/high production player, also in part because there isn't the rule variation on the norm. My caution looking at TAC Cup stats is, if players win a high proportion of the ball on the outside and very little in the contest. I'd be querying their chances of their games converting to AFL play. With contested ball winning a great indicator as to whether someones play will translate v men/AFL competition.

 

[Knightmare]

Just on that, how good is Fogarty's break away speed from stoppages and explosiveness?

Fogarty is powerful with fendoffs. He is also relatively evasive and agile. Average-above average explosiveness, but that pure acceleration and speed after winning the ball isn't his game as it is with a Dangerfield.

 

[ringo1]

Differing competitions so different dynamics.

If you can hold your own in the VFL or another state league, generally that play will translate because at this level as with AFL level you need to be able to perform against men/AFL footballers, often suggesting that you can win your own ball, with a more contested style of game needed to have success at this level relatively.

Performance in the nationals is helpful from the perspective that it helps show where the players fit in direct competition to the next. It's a different game in nationals - you've got unusual rules such as the anti-congestion rules in play during the U18 champs - at each stoppage you need a certain number - either 5/6 inside both your front and back 50m. Some players go better in this style of open games, others are better suited to stoppage fests, so the enforced style of play that is created as a result of the rule results in certainly an advantage to a particular style of player - often more outside types, or high impact/exciting types often have a disproportionate opportunity to impress beyond what they normally would in a normal game.
Ultimately, games at this level, you want to do well and it's great if a player does well. But they're ultimately for me anyway just more games in a sample of the total sum of the games each player plays during the year. I just tend to proceed with auction somewhat if a say Lewis Jetta style of player rips it up during the u18s, I'd be looking at them to do the same under the normal rules the rest of the year to feel convinced they can get their hands on the ball often enough, because you'll find a high fail rate of low production/low contested ball winners who feature high in the draft.

As for the TAC Cup. It's the lesser level of competition out of the three, so the expectation is the better players dominate all the time at this level. With the greatest number of games generally played at this level of the Victorians anyway, their numbers often from this level are the most useful for getting a feel for whether a player is a low/high production player, also in part because there isn't the rule variation on the norm. My caution looking at TAC Cup stats is, if players win a high proportion of the ball on the outside and very little in the contest. I'd be querying their chances of their games converting to AFL play. With contested ball winning a great indicator as to whether someones play will translate v men/AFL competition.

Thanks for such a great reply!

 

[briztoon]

Fogarty is powerful with fendoffs. He is also relatively evasive and agile. Average-above average explosiveness, but that pure acceleration and speed after winning the ball isn't his game as it is with a Dangerfield.

More Dusty like without the ink?

 

[Knightmare]

More Dusty like without the ink?

He has some Dusty. I compare him more to Stringer, being taller and having the versatility to play kpp either end, flank or midfield, while still having that Dusty-like power.

 

[briztoon]

Hey Knightmare, which kid do you think would be best for Brisbane in the first round, and subsequently best for a Melbourne club two years after we draft him?

A lot of it probably comes down to Schache's decision.

If he goes. Jarrod Brander in the first round becomes a priority.

If Schache stays, Brisbane are afforded flexibility in the clubs list build. A midfielder such a Luke Davies-Uniacke would be a suitable fit through the midfield, as this years most advanced midfielder. Darcy Fogarty and Cameron Rayner are two others who should be firmly in that mix.

Just on that, how good is Fogarty's break away speed from stoppages and explosiveness?

Fogarty is powerful with fendoffs. He is also relatively evasive and agile. Average-above average explosiveness, but that pure acceleration and speed after winning the ball isn't his game as it is with a Dangerfield.

He has some Dusty. I compare him more to Stringer, being taller and having the versatility to play kpp either end, flank or midfield, while still having that Dusty-like power.

Sorry but these are all related from a Brisbane perspective.

If Brisbane lose Schache, for mind, Fogarty makes much more sense when looking at the types of KPP's both Hipwood and Ballenden project as.
Keeping in mind the main part of the U18 season has yet to play out and other players could yet jump in to consideration, I've said for a while if Schache goes Fogarty would be my preferred number 1 choice, and if Schache stays LDU would be my preferred number 1 choice.

Even losing Schache, I still might have LDU as my preferred draftee, as we still have a couple of other young talls developing in the academy.

 

[Knightmare]

Sorry but these are all related from a Brisbane perspective.

If Brisbane lose Schache, for mind, Fogarty makes much more sense when looking at the types of KPP's both Hipwood and Ballenden project as.
Keeping in mind the main part of the U18 season has yet to play out and other players could yet jump in to consideration, I've said for a while if Schache goes Fogarty would be my preferred number 1 choice, and if Schache stays LDU would be my preferred number 1 choice.

Even losing Schache, I still might have LDU as my preferred draftee, as we still have a couple of other young talls developing in the academy.

Conceptually I'm all about building with a good core of talls first. It's such an advantage having good talls, and it takes those early picks to get them.

Hipwood beyond down for me is a key defender. He'll be a perinatal All-Australian if Brisbane make that move. He's that well suited to the position with the way he reads the flight so simply by position - as per a Cale Hooker.

Ballenden is one piece. Is he a ruckman? Is he a key forward? He's looked better to date through the ruck but he could be a relieving ruck if he improves his forward craft.

Your comment though has made me think. Specifically thinking about, future academy prospects, which is somewhat of an unknown variable unless you follow u16s and younger. The rationale behind this change of mindset is, thinking about the draft history of those QLDers to go to the AFL, a lot of good talls come out of QLD relatively. So the chances of getting more talls through the academy is high, even if the key forward solution comes some years from now. So Brisbane could very easily go with a midfielder.

 

[Dunny82]

KM,
It's great to see Scharenberg get a run tomorrow. With him not having seen any senior action for a couple of years do you think his ceiling will not be as high as you originally thought it would be in his draft year? Or have his 30+ disposal performances over the last few weeks in the VFL shown that he's still capable of fulfilling his potential?

 

[Knightmare]

KM,
It's great to see Scharenberg get a run tomorrow. With him not having seen any senior action for a couple of years do you think his ceiling will not be as high as you originally thought it would be in his draft year? Or have his 30+ disposal performances over the last few weeks in the VFL shown that he's still capable of fulfilling his potential?

Scharenberg may after Howe and Reid be Collingwood's third best defender by seasons end if he can remain healthy. That probably speaks more so to an average at best backline, but looking at his form: 20 disposals, 6 marks. 18 disposals, seven marks. 25 disposals, (eight marks). 34 disposals (13 marks), 34 disposals (seven marks). Then had that ridiculous 41 disposal, 11 mark game last weekend. He has built up a strong formline in a hurry without really any footy since getting drafted.

State league numbers do count for something and should translate somewhat. He isn't getting 41 and 11 of HB at AFL level, but he may be good for 18 disposals and five marks or thereabouts.

He's a worker and is overall a very well rounded player. Given all this, Scharenberg I still very as a very developable player and my expectation is that he is a long term best 22 player and probable best 15, maybe pushing best 10 on list if things go right for him on the injury front.

I'm excited to see Scharenberg and hope he receives a stretch of games to see how he builds over a month or two at AFL level.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

For me Fogarty is like a better version of Dangerfield.

No pressure then.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi Knightmare
Could you please let me have your comments on Jarrod Brander, I've read your earlier comments about conversion and that concerns me. How is his kicking? Is it elite?
Baggers are desperate for another quality KPF, do you think he's the right choice ? We'll most probably end with pick 2 or 3.

 

[briztoon]

Hi Knightmare
Could you please let me have your comments on Jarrod Brander, I've read your earlier comments about conversion and that concerns me. How is his kicking? Is it elite?
Baggers are desperate for another quality KPF, do you think he's the right choice ? We'll most probably end with pick 2 or 3.

Just trade straight up for Schache. Better value than drafting a KPF this draft.

 

[Dunny82]

Scharenberg may after Howe and Reid be Collingwood's third best defender by seasons end if he can remain healthy. That probably speaks more so to an average at best backline, but looking at his form: 20 disposals, 6 marks. 18 disposals, seven marks. 25 disposals, (eight marks). 34 disposals (13 marks), 34 disposals (seven marks). Then had that ridiculous 41 disposal, 11 mark game last weekend. He has built up a strong formline in a hurry without really any footy since getting drafted.

State league numbers do count for something and should translate somewhat. He isn't getting 41 and 11 of HB at AFL level, but he may be good for 18 disposals and five marks or thereabouts.

He's a worker and is overall a very well rounded player. Given all this, Scharenberg I still very as a very developable player and my expectation is that he is a long term best 22 player and probable best 15, maybe pushing best 10 on list if things go right for him on the injury front.

I'm excited to see Scharenberg and hope he receives a stretch of games to see how he builds over a month or two at AFL level.

I had to laugh after seeing today's results, 16 disposals and 7 marks today...very very close to your prediction

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare
Could you please let me have your comments on Jarrod Brander, I've read your earlier comments about conversion and that concerns me. How is his kicking? Is it elite?
Baggers are desperate for another quality KPF, do you think he's the right choice ? We'll most probably end with pick 2 or 3.

Brander is the best key forward in this draft at this stage.

His kicking isn't elite. He has enough penetration but his reliability in front of goal is not there yet. His field kicking is adequate but not a strength either. But he's hardly played this year, so he may have improved for all I know. We'll see more of him during the Under-18 Championships.

 

[blueiris]

Brander is the best key forward in this draft at this stage.

His kicking isn't elite. He has enough penetration but his reliability in front of goal is not there yet. His field kicking is adequate but not a strength either. But he's hardly played this year, so he may have improved for all I know. We'll see more of him during the Under-18 Championships.

Both Callum Tombstone Twomey and Brett Anderson rate Him as a better defender so it will be interesting see where clubs see him playing

 

[Knightmare]

Both Callum Tombstone Twomey and Brett Anderson rate Him as a better defender so it will be interesting see where clubs see him playing

Brander?

 

[M Malice]

Hey Knightmare , a hell of a lot of talk being generated on BF and MSM outlets re the trade value of Josh Schache. In your opinion if you were only going on Schache's form pre his drafting where would you have him on your power rankings if he was in this years draft?

 

[blueiris]

Brander?

Yeah they both think he's a better defender can't wait to see how he goes thinking the Lions would look at him

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare , a hell of a lot of talk being generated on BF and MSM outlets re the trade value of Josh Schache. In your opinion if you were only going on Schache's form pre his drafting where would you have him on your power rankings if he was in this years draft?

I'll still need to settle on where I rate this years talents and just how highly I regard their upside. After the u18 champs I'll probably have a stronger opinion. I'd also watch for whether Schache makes any meaningful inroads between now and seasons end, or whether he continues his form slump.

Ask me now. Pick 6 is where I'd place Schache in this draft - behind Rayner, Davies-Uniacke, Brander, Fogarty and Hayes if I was to add Schache to my May draft board.

Yeah they both think he's a better defender can't wait to see how he goes thinking the Lions would look at him

I don't recall seeing Brander back at any stage, so that would be interesting.

If view with key forwards is - if you can dominate up forward. Play forward. If you're ok up forward but a star down back, play back.

Cale Hooker and Harry Taylor are two of those I'd have in the need to shift back basket. Eric Hipwood I feel will join this basket along with Jacob Weitering as two potential next gen premier key defenders.

With Brander, if he projects as a say 60 goal a year key forward. Keep him forward. If his numbers up forward are ordinary this year, I'd be looking at him down back. With his mix of attributes, unless his numbers just aren't good up forward, I'm in no rush to shift him back.

I feel the same about Balta. Most favour Balta as a key defender, and he can absolutely do it and do it well. I just want to see him get an extended stretch up forward because like Brander, he has the attributes, he just hasn't received the opportunity to play as a permanent key forward to know for certain whether he can get the numbers you want by position.

 

[briztoon]

Both Luke Power and Michael Ablett from the AFL Academy have both said on Cal Twomey's podcast they see Brander as a better KPD than a KPF.

 

[Jack Richards]

Hey KM

Is Jonty Scharenberg a chance to be picked this year after being overlooked last year?

 

[Knightmare]

Both Luke Power and Michael Ablett from the AFL Academy have both said on Cal Twomey's podcast they see Brander as a better KPD than a KPF.

Will be interesting to see if that proves to be thew case.

Hey KM

Is Jonty Scharenberg a chance to be picked this year after being overlooked last year?

Unless he adds something new to his game it's against the odds.

There is a long list of good top agers this year. Several of whom have passed Scharenberg by. I'll be talking about at least half a dozen of them this week, and several of them I don't recall talking about in previous weeks.

 

[Turbocat]

Brander is the best key forward in this draft at this stage.

His kicking isn't elite. He has enough penetration but his reliability in front of goal is not there yet. His field kicking is adequate but not a strength either. But he's hardly played this year, so he may have improved for all I know. We'll see more of him during the Under-18 Championships.

Just a question re the KPF in this draft... id have thought watching the u17's last year that this draft would be considered more KPF heavy than average and was looking a very good draft ..is that in your opinion shaping up as factual or is it settling into a more standard year with questions over the depth at this stage... and then most likely post draft more names appear and it becomes a little deeper.. ie.. as discussed if player like Brander become KPD rather than forwards.

By the way ..have you and your contacts at espn ever considered a podcast? The road to the draft seems to gather listeners , id think a Knightmare Podcast would gather them as well... special guests , perhaps other respected u18 commentators?