Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Liked the game of Alex Witherden today, who are the good rebounding defenders with good foot skills in this years draft pool?

Witherden is going well.

Nicholas Coffield is the more similar player as that highly skilled type who mostly plays back but also can push through the midfield.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM just wondering about your thoughts on two SA boys. Charlie Ballard and Jake Weideman. I reckon Ballard has the potential to be a star although I don't think his draft position will necessarily reflect this. Having said that I would not be surprised if he moves further and further up the order as the year progresses. Weideman is probably only a rookie possibility in my opinion but has really clean hands, is a good size and quick enough. What do you think?

Ballard is an interesting one at 195cm as a genuine outside mid. Finds the footy. Uses it pretty well. Looks potentially developable and may push up the draft order. First round not out of the question with a strong finish to the season, second round very possible. Should get drafted.

Weideman I didn't notice much of, but those bits I noticed I quite liked. Another good height type and clean winning the ground balls, seems composed in traffic and has some acceleration. Potentially draftable and late/rookie is a chance.

Apparently Rayner hurt his knee playing this weekend for the western jets does anyone have any updates on him??

Wasn't at that game. Haven't heard anything. Happy for someone else to provide an update if there is anything to report.

 

[SizeMatters]

What's the thoughts of highly rated South Australians taken in the top 15 picks of the past decade failing to live up to expectations? You go over recent drafts and you start to see that quiet a few didn't live up to their draft year potentials. Why? Is there something wrong with SA footy? Have we all been worrying about WA to let SA slip under the radar?

2007 - Pick 13 Brad Ebert
2008 - Pick 4 Hamish Hartlett, Pick 10 Phil Davis, Pick 12 Lewis Johnston
2009 - Pick 2 Jack Trengrove, Pick 15 Christian Howard
2010 - Pick 3 Sam Day, Pick 5 Jared Polec, Pick 10 Daniel Gorringe, Pick 13 Seb Tape, Pick 14 Brodie Smith
2011 - Pick 6 Chad Wingard
2012 - Pick 4 Jimmy Toumpas, Pick 8 Sam Mayes, Pick 11 Troy Menzel
2013 - Pick 6 Matthew Scharenberg, Pick 7 James Aish
2014 - N/A
2015 - Pick 6 Aaron Francis, Pick 11 Wayne Milera
2016 - N/A

Not saying all are spuds as there are a few there that are good players but overall it's kinda 'meh'.

 

[Cleric]

What's the thoughts of highly rated South Australians taken in the top 15 picks of the past decade failing to live up to expectations? You go over recent drafts and you start to see that quiet a few didn't live up to their draft year potentials. Why? Is there something wrong with SA footy? Have we all been worrying about WA to let SA slip under the radar?

2007 - Pick 13 Brad Ebert
2008 - Pick 4 Hamish Hartlett, Pick 10 Phil Davis, Pick 12 Lewis Johnston
2009 - Pick 2 Jack Trengrove, Pick 15 Christian Howard
2010 - Pick 3 Sam Day, Pick 5 Jared Polec, Pick 10 Daniel Gorringe, Pick 13 Seb Tape, Pick 14 Brodie Smith
2011 - Pick 6 Chad Wingard
2012 - Pick 4 Jimmy Toumpas, Pick 8 Sam Mayes, Pick 11 Troy Menzel
2013 - Pick 6 Matthew Scharenberg, Pick 7 James Aish
2014 - N/A
2015 - Pick 6 Aaron Francis, Pick 11 Wayne Milera
2016 - N/A

Not saying all are spuds as there are a few there that are good players but overall it's kinda 'meh'.

Both SA clubs need an academy.

 

[Cleric]

Knightmare , do you think Houlahan can do what Hayward has?

 

[Knightmare]

What's the thoughts of highly rated South Australians taken in the top 15 picks of the past decade failing to live up to expectations? You go over recent drafts and you start to see that quiet a few didn't live up to their draft year potentials. Why? Is there something wrong with SA footy? Have we all been worrying about WA to let SA slip under the radar?

2007 - Pick 13 Brad Ebert
2008 - Pick 4 Hamish Hartlett, Pick 10 Phil Davis, Pick 12 Lewis Johnston
2009 - Pick 2 Jack Trengrove, Pick 15 Christian Howard
2010 - Pick 3 Sam Day, Pick 5 Jared Polec, Pick 10 Daniel Gorringe, Pick 13 Seb Tape, Pick 14 Brodie Smith
2011 - Pick 6 Chad Wingard
2012 - Pick 4 Jimmy Toumpas, Pick 8 Sam Mayes, Pick 11 Troy Menzel
2013 - Pick 6 Matthew Scharenberg, Pick 7 James Aish
2014 - N/A
2015 - Pick 6 Aaron Francis, Pick 11 Wayne Milera
2016 - N/A

Not saying all are spuds as there are a few there that are good players but overall it's kinda 'meh'.

Some misses, but if you go through state by state, you'll see similar inconsistency with NSW/ACT and QLD the relatively exceptions with the players from these two states often underrated going into drafts.

If you were to make a hypothetical state of origin team for SA. You'd find of the players drafted in those years, a good portion of those would be in there, with no much star power missing out. Off the top of my head (and I'm sure people will think of others) - Grundy (pick 18 2014), Laird and Neale are the better players from those years not picked inside the top 15. And in each case, I get why each didn't go so high. Laird and Neale being small. Grundy being a ruckman at a time when clubs understanding the history of ruckmen taken early had decided ruckmen were being taken earlier than they should based on talent.

The talent ID from SA is about consistent with that of other stats.

As for the quality of SA footy? It's different. Victoria have the largest pool of talent and get the most picked every year. So the only other state you can really compare talent to is WA, noting that NSW and QLD aren't traditional footballing states and NT and Tasmania possess smaller populations.

The dynamic from WA generally has been you'd got a bunch of speedy types.

The relative point of difference in SA is less a surplus of a particular type, but rather, a lot of the talent gets SANFL League experience (SANFL is the best state league competition at the moment) earlier on and as a result have more advanced games coming into the game. From those names, there aren't really the contested ball winning beasts, so it's not entirely surprising that that list underwhelms. But I guess the lesson we can learn is, you need contested ballers if you want to get those early picks consistently right. If they're only ok in the contested elements of the game, you're probably jumping on them too early.

Knightmare , do you think Houlahan can do what Hayward has?

Hayward is probably the better of the two with his finals series last year seriously dominant.

That said, I also like Houlahan. Terrific athlete and can really hit the scoreboard. A developable player in his own right. May feature second round.

 

[CROWS84]

Hi Knightmare, what are your thoughts on Lewis Young as a like for like replacement for Jake Lever? I didn't see any of the game bit Tim Watson compared him to Lever after his first game. Is he that intercept type? Obviously not wanting to lose Lever but am wondering if this would soften the blow if we gained Young and a 1st rounder if we traded.

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

Hey KM just wondering about your thoughts on two SA boys. Charlie Ballard and Jake Weideman. I reckon Ballard has the potential to be a star although I don't think his draft position will necessarily reflect this. Having said that I would not be surprised if he moves further and further up the order as the year progresses. Weideman is probably only a rookie possibility in my opinion but has really clean hands, is a good size and quick enough. What do you think?

I have been following Weideman last couple of games at Reserves level in SANFL. I really like him.
Physicality and inside contest ball is a major trait of his. He is composed and a great height to work with, plus he has a penetrating kick. He reads the game on the outside well too. Major weakness is he lacks speed.
I feel as Knightmare said he is more likely to be picked up as a rookie but a chance late on. He has some potential for a club to work with for sure



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[JRyan23]

Apparently Rayner hurt his knee playing this weekend for the western jets does anyone have any updates on him??

Yes he did hurt his knee, not concerning and still played out the game, iced it up and will play next week

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM - If you were SOS (besides from spending all day and night with Jo Bailey) would you trade Carlton's first pick (pick 2 or 3) for Josh Kelly or go to the draft?

 

[M Malice]

Josh Kelly and run. A certified gun v a potential gun.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, what are your thoughts on Lewis Young as a like for like replacement for Jake Lever? I didn't see any of the game bit Tim Watson compared him to Lever after his first game. Is he that intercept type? Obviously not wanting to lose Lever but am wondering if this would soften the blow if we gained Young and a 1st rounder if we traded.

He looked great on debut didn't he?

He does have some Lever. Capable intercept mark and able enough to shut down his direct opponents from what I can gather.

Saw little of him last year, but one for WBD to hold onto.

If Lever decided to join the Dogs, Young would be a piece to ask for to ensure you've at least got a long term key defence piece to replace what you'd be losing, albeit it's still a downgrade until/unless Young passes him by, with Lever an established player.

KM - If you were SOS (besides from spending all day and night with Jo Bailey) would you trade Carlton's first pick (pick 2 or 3) for Josh Kelly or go to the draft?

Get the good player and run. Picks are lottery stuff. You can think you know what you are getting, but it doesn't always quiet work out as planned.

Absolutely I would do pick 2 or 3 for Kelly. That's well unders.

GWS would be asking for that pick + extra picks.

Premium talents don't come so cheaply.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Pick 2 or 3 for Kelly is daylight robbery. Every club in the AFL would do that without blinking.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare, who do you think would be the ideal pick for Collingwood at pick 5? It seems like all the top talents are in the midfield which sucks for us, and the best talls are mostly KPD which is good but not great since we desperately need a KPF.

With this being the case, would you agree that our optimal strategy would be:
-Avoid Lever
-Draft Branden/Ballenden
-Pick up Sam Reid at an appropriate price

?

Personally not that keen on Lever as he doesn't seem to be a genuine KPD, in the sense that he plays his best game and presents his best value when being played as a loose defender, and we have Howe playing a similar intercepting role. Having one already diminishes the gains of recruiting another. Don't like Howe forward as a result of Lever, just not worth the time and effort. Lever also seem to be quite injury prone and unreliable game count wise.

Also do you see us taking Hayes/cole-man jones as an alternative to Branden if we're set on recruiting a KPF with our first pick even if their best roles are probably ruck instead of key forward?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, who do you think would be the ideal pick for Collingwood at pick 5? It seems like all the top talents are in the midfield which sucks for us, and the best talls are mostly KPD which is good but not great since we desperately need a KPF.

With this being the case, would you agree that our optimal strategy would be:
-Avoid Lever
-Draft Branden/Ballenden
-Pick up Sam Reid at an appropriate price

?

Personally not that keen on Lever as he doesn't seem to be a genuine KPD, in the sense that he plays his best game and presents his best value when being played as a loose defender, and we have Howe playing a similar intercepting role. Having one already diminishes the gains of recruiting another. Don't like Howe forward as a result of Lever, just not worth the time and effort. Lever also seem to be quite injury prone and unreliable game count wise.

Also do you see us taking Hayes/cole-man jones as an alternative to Branden if we're set on recruiting a KPF with our first pick even if their best roles are probably ruck instead of key forward?

It's a tough call.

With that first pick, to go through the possible draft choices first.

Brander, Dow, Cerra and Davies-Uniacke would be among those I'd be considering depending on availability.

Ballenden I'd consider though at this stage I have behind those others.

Sam Reid I don't think can be had for an appropriate price. He's a restricted free agent, so any reasonable offer Sydney will match. Also there will be other bidders. If he can be had for money less than Wells, I'd take him. If not. Pass.

Lever? I'd trade for him. He's one of the best young key defenders in the game and with Reid's durability questionable and the other key defenders mediocre at best, I'd offer the first round pick and something else in order to get him, with star power going a long way towards winning. It's too early to call him injury prone. He played 24 games last season, has played 13 already this season. There isn't any red flag there for me. I'd be looking overall if I got him to develop him to be the next Ben Reid equivalent, playing key defence but also getting the freedom in that role to intercept and do what he does.

I'd also consider other trade offers for pick five. Maybe there are other still young, but established players who can make us better. Maybe we trade down the pick for a combination of picks, to have more selections either this year, next year or a combination of both.

Flexible thinking at this early stage and being open to whatever makes the clubs list better is what I'd be looking at.

Hayes I'm not looking at all that closely for Collingwood. He's able as a key forward but better as a ruckman. Pick 5 is too much to spend for something we already have, with Grundy better anyway.

Coleman-Jones may be available with our selection selection and would be a great choice if there. Or we may need to move down that pick 5 to get he and someone else (eg. Balta) which would be a combination I'd consider also. Maybe Ballenden likewise if he slides to late in the first round.

 

[M Malice]

I'd also consider other trade offers for pick five. Maybe there are other still young, but established players who can make us better. Maybe we trade down the pick for a combination of picks, to have more selections either this year, next year or a combination of both.

What about our current picks 15 and 18 (2097 points) for pick 5 (1878 points) KM? or pick 15 and next years 2nd rounder for pick 5?

 

[ray8182]

Knightmare, have watched paddy dows highlights recently. He looks like a possible option for Carlton with first pick as we need another clearance player and one with speed and agility to play along side Cripps would suit us.

Love paddys speed, agility and aggression around the contest. Have some concerns about his disposal. His kicking looks serviceable but l noticed he can tend to throw the ball on the boot at times. Watched some footage of Dylan Moore and the comment was made that he seems to know what he's going to do with ball before he gets it. With paddy l feel sometimes he doesn't have that awareness before he gets the ball. He can then panick under pressure once he has the ball and just boot it forward because he doesn't know his options.

Obviously l've only watched a few clips of him and would like an opinion from someone who has spent far more time watching him. Could you elaborate on his disposal in terms of decision making, awareness and actual skill(execution), whether by hand or foot, under pressure.

Thanks


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[footylover18]

What about our current picks 15 and 18 (2097 points) for pick 5 (1878 points) KM? or pick 15 and next years 2nd rounder for pick 5?

thats unacceptable im afraid

 

[M Malice]

thats unacceptable im afraid

Thanks Derek.

 

[footylover18]

Thanks Derek.

So KM is Derek?

It's a horrible trade suggestion. Don't need Derek to tell you that.

 

[Knightmare]

What about our current picks 15 and 18 (2097 points) for pick 5 (1878 points) KM? or pick 15 and next years 2nd rounder for pick 5?

If Brisbane offered pick 15, 18 and Brisbane's 2018 2nd round selection for Collingwood's first selection, wherever it may land.

I would do the deal.

Derek Hine may not and I don't speak for him.

But the way I look at it, pick 15 and 18 may equal from a Collingwood perspective two of Ballenden/Coleman-Jones/Balta. If so, that and a start of second round pick for 2018 in a strong draft - maybe I can get someone with pace with that pick. The package works from a Collingwood perspective.

Knightmare, have watched paddy dows highlights recently. He looks like a possible option for Carlton with first pick as we need another clearance player and one with speed and agility to play along side Cripps would suit us.

Love paddys speed, agility and aggression around the contest. Have some concerns about his disposal. His kicking looks serviceable but l noticed he can tend to throw the ball on the boot at times. Watched some footage of Dylan Moore and the comment was made that he seems to know what he's going to do with ball before he gets it. With paddy l feel sometimes he doesn't have that awareness before he gets the ball. He can then panick under pressure once he has the ball and just boot it forward because he doesn't know his options.

Obviously l've only watched a few clips of him and would like an opinion from someone who has spent far more time watching him. Could you elaborate on his disposal in terms of decision making, awareness and actual skill(execution), whether by hand or foot, under pressure.

Thanks

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At stoppages Paddy can at times throw it onto the boot for territory, but other times he'll accelerate away and use it beautifully, or hit a target by hand or foot from a stoppage. I mostly like what I see, though. Nothing deal breaking. He's an above average kick for an inside mid generally.

 

[GoGrows]

Can't ever remember a top 5 pick being traded for a pick 15 + 18 + 20 type deal. Wouldn't happen.

Last time pick 5 was traded it was pick 5 + 23 + 44 for Carlisle + 14. Obviously with Carlisle being one of the best young swingmen in the comp.

 

[Knightmare]

Can't ever remember a top 5 pick being traded for a pick 15 + 18 + 20 type deal. Wouldn't happen.

Last time pick 5 was traded it was pick 5 + 23 + 44 for Carlisle + 14. Obviously with Carlisle being one of the best young swingmen in the comp.

Unless you love a talent at 5ish. Trading an early draft pick isn't as unwise as seems to be the perception. Early picks are consistently overrated.

Pick 5 doesn't necessarily always translate to success. It's a pretty mixed bag.
2007: Jarrad Grant
2008: Michael Hurley
2009: Ben Cunnington
2010: Jared Polec
2011: Matt Buntine
2012: Jake Stringer
2013: Kade Kolodjashnij
2014: Jordan De Goey
2015: Darcy Parish
2016: Sam Petrevski-Seton

The options this year at pick five for Collingwood are Brander or best available mid. If Collingwood decide their mids are fine and they don't like Brander. Moving down the draft and into more picks is one of the options to consider.

Given the strike rate at pick 5 from the last 10 years, and understanding the points system and the theory behind it. I'd go the quantity of picks. Particularly getting a higher points worth in picks this year + getting what would be a start or very early second round 2018 pick. Huge win for a club looking for more than one good young player to fill list needs.

The exception would be a situation such as GWS where they want to minimise list turnover and already have a lot of talent and for them it's all about gaining those final pieces and drafting that superiority of the most top end talents, more so than quantity of quality talent.

 

[GoGrows]

No doubt pick 5 doesn't equal success.

But, picks 15, 18, 20 etc also dont equal success. And they are less likely to yield a good player than pick 5 is.

BTW: from that list, 8 of the 10 selected are pretty damn good players. That's not a mixed bag.

If Pies choose to move down the order, it wont be for a mixed bag of so so picks. It'd be for a half decent pick this yr and a 1st rounder next year. And given next years draft is supposedly quite good, I dont think the other team is going to do that unless they fall in love with a player at pick 5 this year (Brander slipping etc).

Last year the draft was quite deep so doing such a trade may have made sense (Although no-one still was trading pick 5 in such a trade). This year? Trading out of the top 5 into the complete uncertain range of 16-25 would be seriously ballsy.

 

[GoGrows]

Also, the points system is a joke. I would not be using that as any sort of guide as to the value of picks.