Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[goBlue]

If a club has a positional need. Trade/free agency is the period to fill those needs. Skip out on a McGovern and get Jarryd Lyons/Aaron Hall/Tom Scully.

It's like if you go back to the 2000 AFL Draft. Nick Riewoldt is in the draft and Alan Didak is seen as the best midfielder. Who are you take? I'm going Nick Riewoldt every day - even if my squad is stacked with KPPs. And knowing that, I'm making trades around that planning.

On Lukosius, he can play this year. On debut in 2017 in the SANFL League finals he kicked four goals and he's been playing at the level all through 2018. Put him either end, on a flank, wing. He's good to go. As with other KPPs, it will probably take until roughly his fourth year to enter his prime, but that's hardly problematic with the best KPPs able to last into their mid 30s anyway.

Setterfield is fantastic and I liked that trade by Carlton. Injuries permitting he can be a player. I'm not sure given his injury history (including juniors before the AFL) that I would bet on Setterfield over Collier-Dawkins. If Setterfield never gets hurt again, I'd go that way, but with that element of uncertainty around that, I'll go the guy who is more likely to be available and as a result higher probability to develop.

On Smith, I don't look at his upside as being nearly maxed out or even limited. I evaluate upside based on rate of improvement or lack of improvement. If at 15/16 you're the same guy at 18/19, it's unlikely much is going to change. If you're improving year-on-year, the probability is further improvement is to come. And all the guys we're talking about are improving so they're all set to continue to improve injuries permitting and development programs, leadership groups and coaching doing their jobs at their respective clubs. From an attribute standpoint I consider Smith favourable to Walsh as a better stoppage player/contested ball winner but also a much more explosive runner and better kick. He's the professional of the draft who wants it most, so he probably puts in the most work. But with that combination of attributes, I look at his scope to grow as more favourable to that of Walsh.

How many times have you seen Carlton acquire a decent player from trading. We just tried for Shiel and failed. Currently, not many players want to come to Carlton except for players out of favour at their own or players who are still undiscovered. SOS will be drafting for best available BUT for Carlton's needs, I'm sure if he was an Adelaide list manager he would've taken Lukosius, but its not what Carlton needs.

SOS and Agresta would look at both best talented in the draft and needs. Overall, they felt that Walsh was the better option and they are the full time professionals working day in day out. SoS looked at best available and took Walsh.

Every year in a draft there is "the guy" (Lukosius) who will be able to change the world from day dot. Ive seen it before and i presume its gonna happen for years to come. I appreciate the fact that you love Lukosius, but he could just be a bust. How many other tall prospects have failed in recent history compared to mids. You keep using Nick Riewoldt as an example for how good Lukosius could be but I've seen loads of people compare draftees to Judd and they have never been even close. So until Lukosius does prove himself I will wait.

 

[curnow inferno]

Hi KM,

I know it was only a JLT game so im not getting too far ahead of myself like most others on the carlton board, but im interested to hear your thoughts on walsh’s game last night?

I know you rate him highly but not as much as 3 others in this draft so its obviously way too early to tell anything for a few years yet.

But were you surprised by his performance at all? Or is that about what you would have expected from him anyway??

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,

I know it was only a JLT game so im not getting too far ahead of myself like most others on the carlton board, but im interested to hear your thoughts on walsh’s game last night?

I know you rate him highly but not as much as 3 others in this draft so its obviously way too early to tell anything for a few years yet.

But were you surprised by his performance at all? Or is that about what you would have expected from him anyway??

Not surprised by Walsh's performance. He's a seriously good mid. He's a ball winner and accumulator and covers a lot of ground. Walsh, and the same goes with Smith from last year's draft, they could get you 40 disposals on a good day, so getting 30 in the AFL this year isn't beyond them on their good days.

Walsh could be Carlton's second best midfielder this year and I wouldn't be surprised. Murphy? Curnow? There isn't a second midfielder at this stage in their careers clearly better beyond Cripps where you could say with confidence they'll definitely have a stronger season.

 

[Kwality]

I'd take Adelaide's midfield to West Coast's. West Coast's I look at as having less star power, less depth and being even slower. And neither midfield is quick or has a lot of x-factor. But Adelaide's in each of those areas comes out favourably for mine.
Sloane/Gibbs/M.Crouch/B.Crouch/Laird/Seedsman with Jacobs through the ruck. They're the guys who make any team better through that area.
Gaff/Yeo/Shuey/Redden with Naitanui through the ruck are the only guys from West Coast I'd give that credit to.
Sloane is the best of that group. Sloane/Gibbs/Crouch/Crouch inside is better than Yeo/Shuey/Redden. Gaff is better than Seedsman on the outside as the better endurance runner/accumulator but Seedsman shouldn't be slept on as a seriously fast outside type who provides substantial drive and makes that midfield plenty fast. I also find from a ball movement perspective it makes Adelaide's midfield look quick, as we saw in 2017 with how quickly and easily they moved it which isn't a characteristic I'd credit West Coast for with their strength more coming from their superiority in their KPP stocks, defence and defensive structures.
As for the ruck situation, Naitanui is better than Jacobs when healthy, but he has rarely been and Jacobs is better than Hickey/Vardy.

For a premiership team you dont seem to rate them, as an Eagles fan, I'm not surprised.
Those you rate above them, are they under performers or poorly coached or ..... what?

I rate Adelaide & Don Pyke, top 4 in 2019.

 

[Knightmare]

For a premiership team you dont seem to rate them, as an Eagles fan, I'm not surprised.
Those you rate above them, are they under performers or poorly coached or ..... what?

I rate Adelaide & Don Pyke, top 4 in 2019.

My too early top 4 for now is Richmond, Melbourne, Adelaide and Collingwood. I also favour Geelong and Essendon at this stage. West Coast I have roughly 7th at this point, with GWS more than talented enough to round out a really competitive top 8.

Essendon badly underperformed in 2018 and should with the addition of Shiel be top 4 contenders - their second half of season form was ominous. Geelong underperformed and with a better season from Dangerfield and the addition of Dahlhaus and a year of familiarity from Ablett and Kelly and they should also be better. Collingwood on paper is better with Beams and a hopefully healthy Moore and Elliott but I'm not expecting a successive Grand Final appearance. Adelaide badly underperformed and missed Sloane/Smith/B.Crouch and I expect their play to be closer to 2017 than 2018 as the competition's best side that season. Melbourne are a rising team and should be better again this year with that young midfield and star power through there to improve further and May to add stability in defence and Kolodjashnij for mine good enough to become a regular. Richmond have had two great years and with the addition of Lynch are also better on paper.

My feel with the dynamic of the competition is 1-12 is very strong and even. With North, Hawthorn, Port and Sydney those other four sides at this stage. We've seen it with West Coast winning a flag in 2018 after finishing 8th Collingwood make the grand final after finishing 13th the previous year. Richmond winning the flag after finishing 13th the year before and Western Bulldogs winning a flag and dropping away completely. My prediction for 2019 could be entirely wrong but based on where I rate the clubs today this is how I see it.

West Coast's key position stocks are as good as any in the competition. Naitanui when healthy is a difference maker. Outside of the club's superiority of talls, there isn't any other area that makes me like West Coast over those other sides I have up the pointy end. Player development and player development of talls has always stood out to me with West Coast and Simpson's coaching is exceptional but the youth on the club's list I don't find myself excited by with the club driven mainly by their veterans. I also don't consider West Coast's midfield to be all that strong with a lack of star power - with Yeo/Shuey/Gaff all outside my best 20 midfielders and those tiers below West Coast's top group of mids also below the level I'd ideally want from a contending side.

 

[Arr0w]

Walsh is Mr Consistent, will rack up the numbers, has a high floor but he is not a game changer

I rated, Lukosius, Blakey, Smith, B King and Caldwell ahead of him long term

Given where our list was at, selecting one of the best bust proof players I have seen over the last 2 decades was understandable

 

[Ambrosia]

Walsh is Mr Consistent, will rack up the numbers, has a high floor but he is not a game changer

I rated, Lukosius, Blakey, Smith, B King and Caldwell ahead of him long term

Given where our list was at, selecting one of the best bust proof players I have seen over the last 2 decades was understandable

I think the value of gun outside players is underrated on Bigfooty.

 

[Arr0w]

I think the value of gun outside players is underrated on Bigfooty.

Not underrated by me and Walsh wins enough of his own ball to be rated a balanced mid, rather than pure outside

 

[Ambrosia]

Not underrated by me and Walsh wins enough of his own ball to be rated a balanced mid, rather than pure outside

Outside leaning mids then.

 

[Knightmare]

I prefer Walsh as an inside mid. That's where he'll go to work and play his best football and as he gets stronger that will become even more pronounced.

As an outside mid while he covers a lot of ground and will rack it up, his skills aren't that great and he's not all that quick.

 

[briztoon]

I'm wondering if Walsh will have a late growth spurt, and catch up height wise to his younger brother.

Every time I look at Walsh, I still think he has another 10cm to grow. His arms look longer than normal for his body/height, and he has very large hands.

I wonder if the combine medical or club medico's look at a kids growth plates to see if they're still open or fused closed.

 

[Knightmare]

I'm wondering if Walsh will have a late growth spurt, and catch up height wise to his younger brother.

Every time I look at Walsh, I still think he has another 10cm to grow. His arms look longer than normal for his body/height, and he has very large hands.

I wonder if the combine medical or club medico's look at a kids growth plates to see if they're still open or fused closed.

From what I understand Sam has two younger brothers? I'm not sure which brother he is catching up to in height?

I see him getting stronger though.

Some guys have long arms and big hands but aren't all that tall. Feet and hand sizes seem to be getting disproportionately large with kids these days relative to their heights.

 

[briztoon]

From what I understand Sam has two younger brothers? I'm not sure which brother he is catching up to in height?

I see him getting stronger though.

Some guys have long arms and big hands but aren't all that tall. Feet and hand sizes seem to be getting disproportionately large with kids these days relative to their heights.

Sam's younger brother Henry Walsh, 16 turning 17 year old under ager for the 2020 draft, who is in the Vic Country Academy. 200cm.

 

[Knightmare]

Sam's younger brother Henry Walsh, 16 turning 17 year old under ager for the 2020 draft, who is in the Vic Country Academy. 200cm.

That's me not following u16s. Substantial height difference.

I find looking when there is more than one kid, it's (not always) but often the younger ones that seem to be the tallest, and sometimes it can be by a disproportionate amount as it sounds like is the case between Sam/Henry.

With Sam only growing 2cm over the past two years, I'm not expecting exponential growth. He's listed at 184cm now and he probably stops at 185cm/186cm/187cm.

The clubs will be the ones with the information on his growth plates. That's just me speculating based on what I know.