Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[HBF]

If I'm picking I'm taking Lukosius and it's not even a question. You can have complete KPP and ruck stocks, no AFL grade midfielders and Lukosius is still the clear pick with other needs to be considered later.

Lukosius makes no team too tall because he can push so high up the ground and takes marks, hits meaningful open targets by foot then pushes forward quicker than anyone he'll match up on. He's a key forward who will objectively be more helpful than any wing/half-forward you'll ever have while still killing it as a key forward, playing basically for two players.

He's a Swiss army knife of winning.

Cheers KM. Thanks for that.
If the live trading comes in this year, I just wonder what the Crows would throw at us to get him.

 

[philthy05]

Cheers KM. Thanks for that.
If the live trading comes in this year, I just wonder what the Crows would throw at us to get him.

They will probably open the cupboard and say help yourself lol

I suspect they will make the same fill in this blank cheque offer to pies for Grundy.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers KM. Thanks for that.
If the live trading comes in this year, I just wonder what the Crows would throw at us to get him.

If Adelaide offered x4 1st round picks, I'd still say no.

*Noting that their picks would be late first round.

The top 10 is where this draft is special and Lukosius is one you just can't in your right mind trade.

 

[HBF]

If Adelaide offered x4 1st round picks, I'd still say no.

*Noting that their picks would be late first round.

The top 10 is where this draft is special and Lukosius is one you just can't in your right mind trade.

One of the draft watchers on our board says that Lukosius is the best junior he has seen EVER.
Do you share that view?

 

[Banshee23]

If Adelaide offered x4 1st round picks, I'd still say no.

*Noting that their picks would be late first round.

The top 10 is where this draft is special and Lukosius is one you just can't in your right mind trade.

How would you rate the top 10-20 or so in this draft compared to the last 2-3 years? Who would be in your top 20 or so?

 

[Knightmare]

One of the draft watchers on our board says that Lukosius is the best junior he has seen EVER.
Do you share that view?

Certainly.

In my 10 years following the draft, Lukosius is that clear, outright standout.

If I go back further, there isn't any at the same age/stage I can see myself being as excited about from 1986 being that first draft.

That's not to say he will become the outright best player in the game or the best we've ever seen, but he is one who can have a serious impact.

How would you rate the top 10-20 or so in this draft compared to the last 2-3 years? Who would be in your top 20 or so?

Top 10 is as good as I've seen.

Maybe going back to 2011 if that wasn't a compromised draft, maybe that draft is in the conversation, but the top 10 this year is all-time special.

11-20 and onwards, it's a more normal draft with the other interesting to note features being the strength and depth of Tasmanian talent and the most relevant father-son and academy selections ever which gives this draft a unique dynamic.

I'll complete a phantom draft at seasons end but my power rankings while my personal ratings in terms of how I project their career outcome, will give a feel for those names inside the top 20 to be aware of. *see link to June power rankings in my signature or page 1.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Lukious - Very few question marks with regards to him. The ONLY question I would have is his desire to crash a pack if he plays forward.
Rankine - Close to the most talented player I've seen in junior football. Now, does he have the work rate and desire to increase his output or just become a dangerous forward. I think he needs to increase his defensive pressure if he wants to maintain a forward role.
King * 2 - With the likes of Schache, Patton, Boyd, Paddy.... All not really translating currently into dominant forwards at AFL level, you may also question can the Kings break the trend.
Walsh - I think he is about as close to a lock solid AFL players as you will get in this draft class.
Hill - Short and low output
Blakey - Have not seen enough recently, but what I've heard, this kid is close to the top 3 I ability.
Thomas - Has his fans, especially Pykie, but I am still not completely sold on him.
I've not seen enough of the other players to make a judgement, but I still think this super draft has a few questions.

Hately was growing a massive following, but I preferred Valante and maybe even Kennerley from the SA mids.

If I get to watch a few more Vic Metro players then I may change my mind a little on the strength of the draft.

If I had a top 5 or 6 pick, I would probably not want to drop further down the order.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

1986 being that first draft.

The first proper draft but not first overall.

That's the 1981 VFL Draft.

 

[Knightmare]

The first proper draft but not first overall.

That's the 1981 VFL Draft.

Then 1982 and we had the wait until 1986. Yeah.

The point stands though re. Lukosius.

Lukious - Very few question marks with regards to him. The ONLY question I would have is his desire to crash a pack if he plays forward.
Rankine - Close to the most talented player I've seen in junior football. Now, does he have the work rate and desire to increase his output or just become a dangerous forward. I think he needs to increase his defensive pressure if he wants to maintain a forward role.
King * 2 - With the likes of Schache, Patton, Boyd, Paddy.... All not really translating currently into dominant forwards at AFL level, you may also question can the Kings break the trend.
Walsh - I think he is about as close to a lock solid AFL players as you will get in this draft class.
Hill - Short and low output
Blakey - Have not seen enough recently, but what I've heard, this kid is close to the top 3 I ability.
Thomas - Has his fans, especially Pykie, but I am still not completely sold on him.
I've not seen enough of the other players to make a judgement, but I still think this super draft has a few questions.

Hately was growing a massive following, but I preferred Valante and maybe even Kennerley from the SA mids.

If I get to watch a few more Vic Metro players then I may change my mind a little on the strength of the draft.

If I had a top 5 or 6 pick, I would probably not want to drop further down the order.

The King's I view differently to Schache, Patton, Boyd and McCartin.

McCartin has his health issues, has had all those concussions. He's a different kettle of fish.

Schache I never viewed as that top five in draft talent as I did with those others with his kicking the only thing that really stood out as a junior.

Patton and Boyd were the most dominant of those as juniors. Boyd was more your big mark but never had that athleticism or ground ball stuff. Patton was more mobile relatively and better at ground level and has been fine at AFL level with the change of role to play more ruck this year not working for Patton.

The King's on the other hand while not having the strength of Patton or Boyd, they share the same marking and contested marking. The key with the twins is they're both very mobile - particularly Ben who is very comfortable up the ground and they're much better ground level players - both keys to play as key forwards translating.

Otherwise pretty much agree without going too technical.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Lukoscious
Thomas
Walsh
King M
King B
Rankine
Blakey
Smith
Jones
Hately

That's my top 10 . Thomas is a star , do not take any notice of his game last week he was stuck forward for most of it and exploded on ball in last quarter , North would be kicking their lips as he can literally play anywhere and win contested ball , uncontested ball and tackles very well and is an elite kick . Not many weaknesses

 

[Jeffcrowe]

For the first time in years the top 10 should not be dominated by Vics

 

[Old Stuckup]

Great stuff KM! Which players in the league (if any) would you trade for Lukosius?

 

[Knightmare]

Lukoscious
Thomas
Walsh
King M
King B
Rankine
Blakey
Smith
Jones
Hately

That's my top 10 . Thomas is a star , do not take any notice of his game last week he was stuck forward for most of it and exploded on ball in last quarter , North would be kicking their lips as he can literally play anywhere and win contested ball , uncontested ball and tackles very well and is an elite kick . Not many weaknesses

A solid list, but I'm not convinced Thomas is a star.

He has the speed and his pressure is his strong point. Skills good and can win the contested ball as you say.

I find he's actually pretty low impact per possession.

He wins the ball in stationary positions mostly which doesn't allow him to create any offence/drive - not bursting away from the contest or finding meaningful targets by foot, mostly having by necessity to dish off by hand. I also don't find he breaks the lines much despite his pace.

If he starts winning the ball at stoppages on the move - timing his runs at the ball as Collier-Dawkins does. Or taking on the game like Hill or Rankine with that creative flair. I'd have Thomas in that 2-5 on quality conversation but not doing that, I can't.

For the first time in years the top 10 should not be dominated by Vics

Absolutely right. Incredible top end from SA. Tasmania has a lot of quality this year - which will see the Allies have their strongest U18 champs so far. WA has some more draftable types.

It's not Victoria carrying as was the case last year.

A lot more appealing interstate talent this year.

Great stuff KM! Which players in the league (if any) would you trade for Lukosius?

If I had pick one, what would I ask for to actually execute a trade?

While it's an unusual call, and one I'd never made if it was anyone else in any other draft.

I view Lukosius' worth as being greater than any one individual footballer on any club list. He is the individual player I would personally pick first to start a club list with, ahead of any current footballer.

He can be a 350 gamer, pass Nick Riewoldt by for all-time marks passing that 3000 mark, he can probably get you 750 goals and 5,800 disposals. They'd be the over/under numbers.

It would have to be an entirely unreasonable trade offer for me to trade Lukosius if I was that list manager with pick one (this year).

To entertain your question though of what it would take.

I'd be looking at a combination of high level established footballers and leaders who can assist with the clubs development of youth in something like a three player for pick deal, with ideally at least two of those from a clubs leadership group.

If GWS give me three of Coniglio, Shiel, Whitfield, Kelly and Hopper. That would give me a boost in immediate performance, give me long term pieces, but also a boost in terms of leadership and experience which would be a win in the young player development stakes.

From Adelaide, I'd be looking for both Crouch brothers and Tom Lynch with the same ideal in mind with all three having a lot of good football left - Lynch can play into his mid 30s.

From other clubs, I'd be asking for equivalent currency or better for a trade to even be a conversation.

It's a trade I otherwise wouldn't be executing unless I'm getting that extreme level of currency in return, knowing if I send Lukosius to a good team, I'll get my pants completely pulled down on the deal if I let him go for any less.

 

[M Malice]

s**t Knightmare , big call, if we end up with pick 1 I'd trade it away for Coniglio(24), Kelly(23) and Whitfield(23) in a heartbeat and take my chances.

 

[Knightmare]

s**t Knightmare , big call, if we end up with pick 1 I'd trade it away for Coniglio(24), Kelly(23) and Whitfield(23) in a heartbeat and take my chances.

You should.

If it's two. Most would also. I personally wouldn't.

Any other year. Give me two of those boys, and I'm running away laughing. Most years I'd take one and then a smaller extra and I'd take the deal.

Lukosius is a different beast. He is in his own conversation.

 

[M Malice]

You should.

If it's two. Most would also. I personally wouldn't.

Any other year. Give me two of those boys, and I'm running away laughing. Most years I'd take one and then a smaller extra and I'd take the deal.

Lukosius is a different beast. He is in his own conversation.

If he's as good as you and others are pumping him up to be I can't wait to see him in action at AFL level. Do you expect him to make a significant impact in his first year or two? What sort of role would you see him playing in his first year?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

If I can use a different sport KM, is Jack Lukosius to U18 footy what Rafael Nadal is to the clay court?

 

[Knightmare]

If he's as good as you and others are pumping him up to be I can't wait to see him in action at AFL level. Do you expect him to make a significant impact in his first year or two? What sort of role would you see him playing in his first year?

As a key forward, I'm not fussed what he does in his first or second year. So few of the recent greats have been all that consistent at that age/stage, other than showing glimpses.

Key forwards tend to come good year four which is around the point we can accurately gauge who they are and how good they will be.

That said, Lukosius is going well in the SANFL, so he's one who is good enough to play round one, year one, and go pretty well.

Probably has a 100 mark, 20 goal season from 20 games which would be an incredible outcome as a first year key forward. Probably jumps by roughly 20 marks and 5 goals each season from there until he reaches that prime, to give a rough statistical feel for what he has the capacity to achieve out of the blocks.

 

[Knightmare]

If I can use a different sport KM, is Jack Lukosius to U18 footy what Rafael Nadal is to the clay court?

Different games, different styles but comparable for ages/stages when translating how good they are in their respective sports.

Lukosius you'll find has a different way of beating you we just haven't seen - in a similar way to what can be said of Nadal who has unique strength, endurance, hitting consistent, heavyness of spin and mental strength like we haven't seen.

Back on Lukosius. He'll do the Nick Riewoldt running - take marks up the ground as high as a half-back flank then push hard forward, beat his man forward and take a mark i50- but add onto that the ability to hit meaningful targets others don't have the vision to see or skill to hit - be it on that kick from half-back, a kick entering the forward 50m. It's like adding a back flankers skills/rebound onto a Nick Riewoldt.

He's Nick Riewoldt with a little hot sauce added for good measure.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I'm liking all of these creative analogies/metaphors/similies.

You're essentially calling the Lithuanian "delicious."

 

[Knightmare]

I'm liking all of these creative analogies/metaphors/similies.

You're essentially calling the Lithuanian "delicious."

Adding a bit more on Lukosius.

It reminds me of the Portland pick 2 in 1984 NBA draft.

Bobby Knight calls to Portland GM - pick Michael Jordan.
Portland GM - we have Clyde Drexler. We need a centre.
Bobby Knight - pick Michael Jordan. Play him centre.

*Of course Portland Sam Bowie who has an injury plagued career and never becomes anything and Michael Jordan becomes the greatest perimeter player in NBA history.

Lukosius is that same story. He's not Michael Jordan. But the point can be translated pretty simply and explained to anyone who asks who should be taken with pick one.

Lukosius is the answer. Unequivocally. Irrespective of positional need or how empty ones midfield is or how stacked ones key position stocks are. He's that kind of talent you take and play wherever you need to, to fit him into your best team because he'll make you better than anyone else, even other highly touted and high quality top end options who fill your positional needs directly.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

I'd like to see him kick things up a few gears and dominate through the U18 champs to give clubs that option in that range.

His numbers haven't been great in the WAFL Colts though to start the season, not being that step up from last year I was expecting. Improvement is needed. But if he can, that would be a great thing for those clubs needing kpps.



Recruiters I've spoken to have never even bought up Walsh's kicking as being an issue. In fact, they're all complimentary which staggers me when I'm seeing skill errors from him every week.

I see his kicking as being roughly equivalent to Tom Scully. Scully has become a better kick, but it's not a strength and by position is for his career below average.



Team high 11 tackles. Otherwise 8 disposals, 3 marks, one goal.

He contributed, but wasn't as impactful as I would have liked.

A pass mark, but he'd want some stronger performances over the coming weeks.

11 tackles as a small forward sounds like a coaches wet dream.

 

[Knightmare]

11 tackles as a small forward sounds like a coaches wet dream.

I would normally agree.

It's more a case of the conditions were terrible, players slipping over throughout. It was a scrap.

If he gets 6/7 on a dry day, I'd be more impressed. And that's something he can do and something I hope to see from him as that's what he can bring to the table as per Charlie.

 

[Forethought]

Hi KM, is there anyway that the Pies can get Lukosius?
If the Blues finish last SOS has a habit of recruiting volume rather than excellence. I feel they might be gettable with a trade however the Crows would hold all the cards I’d imagine.
If the pies got say pick 16 from the swans for Moore and we managed to snare Lynch as a FA would the following stack up?
Our first round pick 2018, 2019, ( pick 16 2018 from the swans ) and a player say like Greenwood .
The Blues are in a position of needing a mini Rebuild so 3 x first rounders albeit late ones plus a senior player gives them a fair start.
What do you think it would take for the Pies to get the no 1 pick ?
I just feel we have a good list that is relatively young and if we managed to get Lynch and Lukosius, Quaynor, Kelly from this Draft we would be ok having nothing for 2019 draft.

 

[footylover18]

Here's a question for the floor:

Who are the most HYPED draftees we've ever seen?

My memory doesnt go back too far but my list would contain

Tom Boyd, Tom Scully, Jack Martin, JOM

Lukosius is easily on the list obviously. He's easily the most hyped (perhaps rightfully so) draftee we've come across i think