Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[northeasttiger]

Hi Knigtmare, big fan of your work keep it going.

What type of forward do you see Garoni from the Bushies being and where do you see him going in the draft?

 

[philthy05]

No issue with anything you've posted, just for clarification it's my view - after watching him live and on vision a number of times - that his contested marking is average. Against smaller bodied, under-age opponents he is still prone to double grabbing or dropping contested marks. Doesn't necessarily bode well for the step up against elite level KPD. Hope I'm wrong, not out to see any kid fail, just offering my perspective as a longtime talent watcher.

Yeah that’s fair enough.

But I don’t think we have many key forwards who are currently good contested marks. At port for instance, Dixon is tall and physically strong, so will win contested marks, but I don’t rate his contested marking. Hands not good, timing average, reading average. Watts has better hands without being really great but not the strength. Westhoff is probably by far our best contested marker by skill. Best hands and best reading of flight. I think it’s probably the same around the league. Plenty of good key forwards who have 1 or 2 aspects of marking ability but few or none of them have contested marking , size , reading hands etc.

I don’t think he will get found out any more than any other key forward who has holes. He probably has more tricks to my eye.

 

[jackess]

I'd go even further Jason, I would have no hesitation in swapping pick 1 for Kelly alone - on the proviso we had him locked in for 6/7 years.

The only kid from this years draft that I see being a locked in 200 gamer is Walsh. For all the possibilities with Lukosius, the fact that his contested marking is average at best against under-age opponents is still a big question mark. Highly talented junior player without doubt, but the next Wayne Carey?

Kelly is a proven elite player at the next level, all these kids are just that - kids.

Can you give examples of underage KPFs who were good contested marks at that level?

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts regarding Fraser Turner, KM?

Hard running mid. Draftable, but not an early pick.

I'm sorry Knightmare but any list manager that doesn't trade pick 1 for any 2 of Kelly, Shield, Coniglio and Whitfield would be sacked on the spot, yet alone 3 of them.

Even if you could lock in that he will be as good as Riewoldt it doesn't make sense since as good as he was, he's not worth that.

It's honestly surprising since you've always been one for saying draft picks are over-rated. Regardless, cant wait to watch the kid go around next year.

My comment as Pie 4 Life mentioned was if I had pick 1, that's how much would need to be offered for me to give it up.

Trading potentially the best ever pick 1 isn't something as a list manager I'd have on my to-do list or want on my resume.

It would have to be an entirely lopsided deal as per those I proposed for me to feel compelled to trade that pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knigtmare, big fan of your work keep it going.

What type of forward do you see Garoni from the Bushies being and where do you see him going in the draft?

He's a big marking presence with a big body. He is a possible but not certain pick late/rookie. He'll probably lead the TAC Cup goalkicking, but is that old fashion big marking forward who lacks the mobility or versatility clubs look for in modern key forwards.

In the AFL, you've got key defenders who will be just as strong and able to hold their own in the contest - so those types can be negated if they don't have an additional point of difference which Garoni doesn't at this stage.

 

[blue shark]

Hard running mid. Draftable, but not an early pick.



My comment as Pie 4 Life mentioned was if I had pick 1, that's how much would need to be offered for me to give it up.

Trading potentially the best ever pick 1 isn't something as a list manager I'd have on my to-do list or want on my resume.

It would have to be an entirely lopsided deal as per those I proposed for me to feel compelled to trade that pick.

Worked for Freo with Hodge.

 

[Bicks]

Knightmare are you finding hard to assess the pros and cons of players when playing against the best of the best in these Championships when so many of the players [especially midfielders] are being played out of the position they would likely play at AFL level?

 

[Resigned]

Hi KM have you seen much of Joel Randall from the Northern Knights? been in the best a few times this year.

 

[Yabadoo22]

Hey knightmare, what are your thoughts on xavier Ohalloran? What are his strengths and weakeness? Who would you compare him to and where do you see him going in the draft? Thanks

 

[whiskeytown]

Hey Knightmare, I know last year you were a fan of Jordan Butts from Murray. Known as a defender but he kicked 6 on the weekend. In your opinion is it worth the pies taking a punt on him as a ben reid type utility? At this point in time seems a better prospect than F/S Kelly at Oakleigh.

 

[Dee bee]

Hey Knightmare, watched stingrays vs chargers today. What are your thoughts on Matthew Cottrell? He looks like a beast. Was super impressive, by far the best player out there. I reckon it was the most dominant game by a mid that I’ve seen in the TAC.

12 possessions must have been impressive??

 

[The German Hunter]

12 possessions must have been impressive??

He was seriously impressive, smashed the packs and layed some cracker tackles. Hard, old fashioned attack on the footy.(almost Voss like)I must say I was surprised with his stats, seemed to have a lot more than that.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Are there any Sandringham Andrew's floating around waiting to be the No. 3 pick?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

That was very much tongue in cheek on my behalf as 2016's Andrew (McGrath) went No. 1 and 2017's Andrew (Brayshaw) went No. 2.

 

[Studly Baker]

What's your take on Essendons NGA kid Ismail Moussa? He seems the most draftable of our bunch this year.

 

[Skipper_]

In a hypothetical situation where every player and pick is available, what do Carlton (assuming they end up with it) accept for Pick 1?

 

[M Malice]

In a hypothetical situation where every player and pick is available, what do Carlton (assuming they end up with it) accept for Pick 1?

Jack Lukosius.

 

[Swiggy]

Who would freo be targeting in the draft?

 

[philthy05]

In a hypothetical situation where every player and pick is available, what do Carlton (assuming they end up with it) accept for Pick 1?

Go back literally a page

 

[Crow till I die]

No issue with anything you've posted, just for clarification it's my view - after watching him live and on vision a number of times - that his contested marking is average. Against smaller bodied, under-age opponents he is still prone to double grabbing or dropping contested marks. Doesn't necessarily bode well for the step up against elite level KPD. Hope I'm wrong, not out to see any kid fail, just offering my perspective as a longtime talent watcher.

He will be perfectly suited to the Crows Tom Lynch role for a club - he would make an ideal connector as he can really cover the ground and this would allow him to play as a lead up AND his foot skills hitting up targets inside forward 50 would be very good imo. That is the role he could lay early in his career as he develops his contested game and strengthens after a few preseasons

 

[Shaz2012]

If I'm picking I'm taking Lukosius and it's not even a question. You can have complete KPP and ruck stocks, no AFL grade midfielders and Lukosius is still the clear pick with other needs to be considered later.

Lukosius makes no team too tall because he can push so high up the ground and takes marks, hits meaningful open targets by foot then pushes forward quicker than anyone he'll match up on. He's a key forward who will objectively be more helpful than any wing/half-forward you'll ever have while still killing it as a key forward, playing basically for two players.

He's a Swiss army knife of winning.

Its really quite a massive rating you are giving for Lukosius. Great reading and appreciated. He looks an amazing player and what impresses me the most is that he looks an absolute natural at SANFL level already (tv watching only). But I feel like you are rating him higher than any player should possibly be rated. Surely you cant be serious that you value him in an equal trade with Coniglio, Shiel and Kelly. If you substituted a fully fit Riewoldt in the prime of his career you would have less chance of winning a flag, than if you stuck with those other three. Your also one ACL away from throwing all of your sides chances down the drain, your club could lose up to a decade. I can't think of a side that has won a flag being that dependent on just one player. It strikes me as a similar situation that GCS have had in the last few years.

You mentioned there seems to be a standout group of say 8 players, followed by a relatively normal draft crop. I struggle to see how he is worth 2 of those other 7 players. If it was on the cards, my thinking is that our club would be better off with Rankine and Hately than just Lukosius. I think GWS should take both the King boys (keep them happy, keep them long term). The Saints need quantity of A-graders, not quality if you know what I mean.

In the case of the Crows, Lukosius would basically stack our forward line for the next decade (with Fogarty) at the expense of two or three gun mids. Surely there is a similar argument for Carlton already having Curnow and McKay. For balance they would end up having to play Lukosius up the ground, possibly as a wing/midfielder as you have noted he can. But then do you still get the most out of your once in a generational player. I would have thought having a lesser A-grader to play this role and another A-grader in the midfield would be better. Dont you have to take into consideration the state of the list? Surely no list can afford to give up 2 or 3 A-graders for 1 super A-grader.

 

[crispy creme]

He will be perfectly suited to the Crows Tom Lynch role for a club - he would make an ideal connector as he can really cover the ground and this would allow him to play as a lead up AND his foot skills hitting up targets inside forward 50 would be very good imo. That is the role he could lay early in his career as he develops his contested game and strengthens after a few preseasons

Please don't get me wrong, the kid could and probably will be a star. The point I'm trying to make is that the pressure we put on these boys is sometimes way over the top. I'm not beyond reproach, I've done exactly the same in the past.

With mental health being a major concern in the community, the tags such as 'best since', 'future champion', 'once in a generation' etc are fraught with danger.

Just to be clear, this is not have a go at anyone at all - especially guys such as KM, who do a great job bringing in-depth info to many who rely on then to quench their thirst for draft info.

 

[SizeMatters]

Please don't get me wrong, the kid could and probably will be a star. The point I'm trying to make is that the pressure we put on these boys is sometimes way over the top. I'm not beyond reproach, I've done exactly the same in the past.

With mental health being a major concern in the community, the tags such as 'best since', 'future champion', 'once in a generation' etc are fraught with danger.

Just to be clear, this is not have a go at anyone at all - especially guys such as KM, who do a great job bringing in-depth info to many who rely on then to quench their thirst for draft info.

He's the best talent I've seen come through in 5 years. Massive wraps on this kid... although I'm starting to get a Jack Watts vibe from him. Extremely talented, fantastic athlete, elite footy IQ but lacks a bit in the contested situations IMO for a KPF also will he ever get a decent rig on him? As others have said he will be drafted as a key forward but will probably have to spend at least 5 or 6 years as a lead up flanker. Could that impact his development like Watts? Haven't really had time to watch anything meaningful this year so only going by snippets here and there.

 

[LemmingMaster]

He's the best talent I've seen come through in 5 years. Massive wraps on this kid... although I'm starting to get a Jack Watts vibe from him. Extremely talented, fantastic athlete, elite footy IQ but lacks a bit in the contested situations IMO for a KPF also will he ever get a decent rig on him? As others have said he will be drafted as a key forward but will probably have to spend at least 5 or 6 years as a lead up flanker. Could that impact his development like Watts? Haven't really had time to watch anything meaningful this year so only going by snippets here and there.

He has shown his ability at SANFL league level during the finals, kind of gives you a little cause for hope. If he can handle that stage and level, he has AFL writtten all over him. I do agree with the previous poster that he is getting a lot of pressure put on him and he could crack from the hype. Key forward also have a heap more pressure than midfield top picks.

 

[HedgeFund]

He has shown his ability at SANFL league level during the finals, kind of gives you a little cause for hope. If he can handle that stage and level, he has AFL writtten all over him. I do agree with the previous poster that he is getting a lot of pressure put on him and he could crack from the hype. Key forward also have a heap more pressure than midfield top picks.

Pressure? Seriously?

Pressure is the kids who are not selected for an u18 rep team and worried if clubs are going cold on them - that’s pressure.

A kid who has (quite rightly) been touted as the best prospect in the draft has ZERO pressure on them at this stage.

Why?

1. He’s going to get drafted regardless isn’t he. We would all put our houses/ first born / the farm on him getting picked and picked early.

2. Whichever club selects him (and plenty of others) will be shoving a contract extension under his chin ASAP. Agree?

3. He will probably debut at AFL level earlier than most - particularly if his club want him in the side from a marketing perspective (though no doubt form will warrant it anyhow).

Where’s the pressure compared to the kids who might get taken at 40 - 60 or rookies, but are travelling badly, or playing injured but feel they need to keep playing to impress recruiters.

I’d take the “hype” over real pressure every day of the week.